Skip to comments.Russia’s mainland invasion will be through Chernihiv to Kyiv with tanks supported by airborne troops
Posted on 03/04/2014 10:49:19 PM PST by No One Special
Translated by Denis Gapeyev Edited by Voices of Ukraine
Andrey Illarionov, a former Advisor to President Putin who repeatedly warned about Putins plans to unleash the Russian invasion of Ukraine gives new pieces of advice on how to fend off the aggressor.
1. Two days ago I outlined the urgent steps to defend Ukraine in a series of interviews, as well as on this blog. The most urgent of them being the closure of Ukraines land, sea and air borders with Russia, this has never been implemented. As a result, we see assaults and seizure of Regional State Administrations in Kharkiv, Lugansk, Donetsk and Odessa by Putins tourists.
The Ukrainian border is still open and the high officials in Kyiv are still pondering whether to close it or not. They are probably waiting for the Russian tourists to reach Kyiv by APCs and tanks.
2. Requirements to publish the Statement by the Commander-in-Chief of Ukrainian Armed Forces and Commander of the Ukrainian Air Defense that all aircraft violating Ukrainian air space and ignoring instructions of Ukrainian military authorities will be brought down, and to follow the order to do so have not been accomplished.
As a result, we have Russian military transport airplanes landing in Crimea every 15 minutes, so far 15,000 Russian soldiers have been brought to Crimea.
3. With no orders to defend themselves and no enforcement, the Ukrainian ferry dock in Kerch, Crimea has been seized by the Russian forces. Now tens of thousands of Russian soldiers will arrive in Crimea.
4. The first step for the Ukrainian Navy during the announced mobilization was supposed to be to order the Ukrainian warships to leave their bases and put to sea. This has not been done. Now [as the Ukrainian warships are blocked] the Ukrainian warships will probably be seized by the Russian troops.
5. Two days ago, the recommendation was to urgently launch a counter-propaganda media center to fight against Russian misinformation. Never done.
6. Urgent measures need to be taken to stabilize the situation in Kharkiv, Lugansk, Donetsk and Odessa. If this is not done within the immediate hours, then provocations unleashed by Russian tourists will lead to casualties. This will give Putin an excuse to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
7. South and South-Eastern Ukraine will be a secondary axis. The main axis of Russian invasion will be through Chernihiv to Kyiv, along which Russian tanks fortified by airborne units, will head to Kyiv.
INFO BELOW FROM WIKIPEDIA: Andrey Nikolayevich Illarionov (born September 16, 1961) is a Russian libertarian economist and former economic policy advisor to the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin. He currently works as a senior fellow in the Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC.
On April 12, 2000, Illarionov assumed the office of Vladimir Putin's senior economic adviser within the Russian presidential administration and in May 2000 he became the personal representative of the Russian president (sherpa) in the G8. He played an important role in introducing the low 13% flat income tax in Russia in repaying the Russian foreign debt, in creation the petroleum revenues-based Stabilization Fund of the Russian Federation and in bringing Russia's full-fledged membership in the political G8.
On January 3, 2005 Illarionov resigned from his position as presidential representative to the G8. On December 21, 2005, Illarionov declared "This year Russia has become a different country. It is no longer a democratic country. It is no longer a free country".
Don’t think that is going to happen.
If Putin moves, it will be to consolidate the majority Russian areas in the Southeast, around Donetsk.
Crimea is already a done deal. It’s over there.
UKRAINE IS DONE. Stick a fork in it.
Poland now must mobilize and Turkey also. Then they must start sending in agents into Russia to destroy its pipelines, powergrids, oil fields.....until some shoots Putin.
Simple. Have the billionares of Europe put a bounty on his big head. Half a billion and he’s dead before Monday. Hell we print 2 billion every stinking day, we will pay em back.
Yeah,, lets mobilize Turkey and Poland for war against Nuclear Russia, who after Obama has more ICBMs that we do. And we kick it off by assassinating Putin.
Any other bright ideas?
And just cause I hafta ask, why exactly would we be starting this nuclear war, and why should Turkey want any part of it? It is just that war is fun? I’m fascinated.
PS, for extra credit explain how we supply our troops in Afghanistan when the Russians evict us from the bases they started letting us use after 9/11?
I’m much more worried about the 30 million Mexicans who have invaded America, than I am about Russia reinforcing its Crimean bases that they have had since they were sailing in tall ships,,,, with sails.
Ukraine hasn’t died yet.
Remove your fork and raise the Trident.
Mexico don’t have nukes.
Turkey is already supplying bodies to muslim terrorists in Russia. Just encourage them more.
This is Cold War II. You fight through proxy. Somebody pays money to the sniper who takes Putin’s head off. The sniper is then killed and found to be a gay Russian sailor. Whatever.
I don’t like 30 million illegals either. But they don’t have a President like Putin who is losing his damn mind with his pockets full of nukes. He now is accusing Poland of being behind the revolt in Ukraine....and now Poland has called an emergency meeting of NATO. The next step? Run away and turn your back and hide your head in the sand?
Yeahhhhh, I remember when I had my first beer.
What’s in it for Russia?
Occupying an entire country is no small task.
Especially one that is nearly bankrupt.
Poland was behind it, but mostly it was us and the EU. Our own ambassador admitted she spent 5 BILLION on it. Hell there are photos of her handing out cookies to the protesters. There are photos of the senile fool McCain backslapping with an honest to god Nazi leader in the Maidan.
And we are pretending that this movement sprung up fully formed and equipped, complete with giant tents and outdoor sound systems, stages, etc,,, all on their own.
Its pure silliness to think that Obama, Kerry, McCain and the EU suddenly were on the side of freedom. It’s even sillier to think that Russia won’t respond to a Nazi dominated government in Kiev by securing historically Russian areas in east Ukraine and in Crimea. They have a real history with Nazis and do not regard them as warmly as parts of Europe and DC do.
No, around 250 years ago it was part of the Ottoman Empire.
Thanks. I just went to Wikipedia with UKRAINE. Wow!
What a history of wars. You might enjoy.
Read the title and immediately thought the thread was a continuation of the morning series of flashback FR threads on WW-II. Only the dates didn’t match when I got here.
Russian will not do a darn thing.
Putin has created a tarbaby for himself. The more he gets mired in the Ukraine, the worse for Russia on many, many fronts from international finance to oil and gas pricing to any number of things in retaliation across the board that won’t be military.
He’s in a mess, no doubt about that.
1. Ukraine falls, the world dithers, and Russia is clearly the new world superpower
2. Israel, betrayed by the US, attacks Iranian nuclear facilities
3. The Islamic nations surrounding Israel attack, including Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Egypt.
4. This is the Psalm 83 War, and Israel prevails over its neighbors, greatly expands her borders, and becomes a world power
5. Russia, after a time, leads the nations of Ezekiel 38 and 39 to war against Israel
I am no fan of Putin.
But I am not sure who the Ukraine is better off associating with, the EU or Putin. Both are very bad options. Neither has a path to freedom.
Vlad is crazy. And associates with some very bad people, ChiComs, Iranians, Syrians, etc.
But the EU embrace of Ukraine is also the kiss of death. Death by Socialism. End of Freedom.
But there is no cavalry coming to the rescue. Obozo is the kiss of death too.
Don’t you remember the defense budget cuts of last week....we don’t NEED tanks anymore. Would someone send Russia the memo!
Indeed! John (I was in Viet Nam, ya know) Kerry declared such things to be out of fashion.
I hear he was on a secret mission in Cambodia with camoface and no tank.
Poland, and thus NATO, would get involved if Western Ukraine is threatened.
Is that Genghis’ sister Jenny? Jenjisss was his pet name for her, I think.
Poor John, “reminiscent of Jenjiss”...I think Jenny used to “put flowers in her hair” when she went “to San Francisco.” She finally made it into a Forest Gump movie, I think.
Good luck with that.
Kerry really snapped when she left him for that fry cook in Peoria.
I’m for building the Fence and kicking them out. The GOP otoh, not so much. I wonder if a President Cruz would build and deport.
He won’t have my back.
But you are correct.
Yes that scenario is highly unlikely.
It’s great to see someone do some research into the history!
I’ve posted some more “background” links here:
The WW2 stuff is just horrific...
The last is very important @ present, so I’ll copy it here:
I guess neither the Ukraine or Poland has had bad experiences with Nazis, is that it?
The Ukrainian Parliament (who tossed out Yanukovych) still has the same membership. The oligarchs who pull the strings (and became dissatisfied with Yanukovych) are still the same people (and have been for a long time.) As recently as late 2009, opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko was being tagged by “analysts” as Russia’s preferred candidate in the 2010 Presidential election. Putin denied this, as obviously he would, either way. You’re telling us that Putin is scared of a few neo-Nazis with BB guns, tents, and loudspeakers? (That apparently cost 5 billion dollars.)
And yet you demonstrate NO awareness of the bigger picture.
That is the one troubling question. “Why.” The Ukraine could not take the Sevastopol base from Russia if they tried. Russia would swat any such attempt like a fly. On the other hand, that base and the Black Sea fleet is of only minor strategic significance. It is best suited for bullying nearby nations.
(Very good analysis here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russia-decides-to-send-troops-into-crimea-what-does-the-black-sea-fleet-look-like/2014/03/01/38cf005c-a160-11e3-b8d8-94577ff66b28_story.html)
Note the assertion that Russia’s forces as a whole “would not be effective against NATO.” Left out however is Russia’s ability to “turn off the gas” to Europe.
My guess is that the prof. at the link is partially correct, but I believe that Putin also sees an opportunity to prove that U.S. security guarantees and assurances are worthless, which gives him even more bullying power worldwide. However, the Russians (like a lot of people on this thread) do not seem to have thought this out further into the future. A global Pandora’s box is about to open.