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Break Ukraine In Two (Civilized Divorce Alert)
Forbes ^ | 03/05/2014 | Jay Hallen

Posted on 03/05/2014 1:13:39 PM PST by goldstategop

Should there be a western-leaning Ukraine going forward, it will not include Crimea. The U.S. and Western allies should concede this from the start, and perhaps other of Ukraine’s 24 oblasts too. Crimea and its environs have little strategic value to the West, beyond the opportunity of denying them to Russia. But Russia holds all the leverage because they have the most at stake, and are the only ones willing to commit troops on the ground. Let Moscow annex these lands.

Ukraine is better off without Crimea. Critics will no doubt deride this yielding as weak surrender, but it is better viewed as a strategic concession. Ukraine and the West are better off without Crimea, and perhaps other Russian-leaning regions in East Ukraine as well. The Ukrainian interim government should negotiate exact borders – perhaps, say, Crimea and the three other oblasts that lead up to the city of Donetsk – with the goal of retaining the maximum population whose electoral balance tips unquestionably to Europe and NATO-friendly political parties. It is better to have a smaller Ukraine that is a united and confident member of Europe, than the current Ukraine that is an unstable political football between old Cold War foes. What remains to be seen is whether Moscow will attempt to invade, occupy, and annex other pro-Russian regions of East Ukraine as well. For this reason, it is better for Ukraine and its Western allies to get ahead of the situation and negotiate a concession settlement that guarantees a Russian withdrawal from elsewhere in the country.

(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: civilizeddivorce; crimea; forbes; jayhallen; russia; ukraine; ukrainecrisis
A civilized divorce is better than a bad civil war. There is no way to preserve a badly split Ukrainian state in its present form. A Western-leaning democratic Ukrainian state should be created out of the central and western Ukrainian lands. Russia in turn would be allowed to annex the Russophone eastern and southern Ukraine and the West would recognize Russian sovereignty over those regions as well the Crimea. A homogeneous and unified Ukraine anchored in a new west Ukrainian state that joined Europe would serve as a source of stability and prosperity going forward. Both Ukrainians and Russian-speakers each would be guaranteed the right of self-determination. There are times when keeping members of a feuding family together serves no one's interests. The only question left to answer is whether the breakup will be imposed by Russia or whether it will occur through a negotiated agreement.
1 posted on 03/05/2014 1:13:39 PM PST by goldstategop
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To: goldstategop

“A civilized divorce is better than a bad civil war.”

If this were clearly a civil war, this would probably be true. However, it appears to be more like a thinly disguised foreign invasion to me, in which case, this proposal is appeasement and won’t lead to much good.


2 posted on 03/05/2014 1:15:16 PM PST by Boogieman
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To: goldstategop
North and South Korea.

East and West Germany.

It always works out so well...

3 posted on 03/05/2014 1:15:20 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (If Barack Hussein Obama entertains a thought that he does not verbalize, is it still a lie?)
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To: goldstategop

I agree 100% with this assessment.


4 posted on 03/05/2014 1:15:23 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

You left out Czech and Slovak Republics.


5 posted on 03/05/2014 1:15:49 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: goldstategop

The southwestern US can become part of Mexico too, using the same reasoning


6 posted on 03/05/2014 1:17:36 PM PST by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans!)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

it always worked out for the capitalist side and horrible for the socialist side.


7 posted on 03/05/2014 1:18:43 PM PST by MNDude
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

bump


8 posted on 03/05/2014 1:21:52 PM PST by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
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To: goldstategop
I agree this is a likely result, but we should not agree to naked cross-border aggression by Russia.

As long as what Putin annexes is limited to overwhelmingly Russian areas, he's likely to get away with it. All of Ukraine's active duty forces are 90,000.

Even though our interests are not strong enough here to justify committing our military, there should be serious consequences for Russia.

9 posted on 03/05/2014 1:26:59 PM PST by colorado tanker
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To: Boogieman

Clearly we cannot all just get along any longer.


10 posted on 03/05/2014 1:27:45 PM PST by edcoil (Realism is only a socially accepted form of pessimism)
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To: GeronL
The southwestern US can become part of Mexico too, using the same reasoning

It would be a good deal only if the US could annex Alberta, BC, and the oil-producing areas of Mexico to compensate for that loss.[/semisarc.]

11 posted on 03/05/2014 1:27:47 PM PST by rfp1234 (Impeach We Much!)
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To: goldstategop

Well, London population seems to be predominantly Muslim. London must go to Pakistan. Right?


12 posted on 03/05/2014 1:28:35 PM PST by Samogon (Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something. - Plato)
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To: dfwgator

The Velvet Divorce produced stability and peace and actually brought the two peoples closer together. Czech and Slovak leaders still pay a first visit to each other’s capitals and they guarantee their nationals in each other’s country enjoy the same rights they do in their home country.

A divorce is not necessarily terrible. What worked nearly a generation ago does not work today and borders are not always sacrosanct. The visions of Ukrainian nationalists and those aligned with Moscow are irreconcilable. Keeping Ukraine together by force means someone will always feel they got the raw end of the deal and such a country will never know true peace. Ukrainian leaders are wedded to an arrangement that does not serve their country’s interests and will always incur the wrath of Moscow.

Its painful letting the Crimea, the Donbass and other parts of the Novorossiya secede but the new rulers in Kiev hold no real sway there and a unified Ukrainian state exists only on paper. Western Ukrainians want a future with the West and they can’t have one if they try to impose their vision for the country on the rest of it by force. This is the only realistic way out of the present crisis and the ultimate settlement should be guaranteed by the US, EU, and Russia.


13 posted on 03/05/2014 1:29:25 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: dfwgator

Czech and Slovak Republics are two different nations formalizing their divorce. What does it have to do with Ukraine? Kosovo would be better comparison: a bunch of foreigners squat on other nation’s lands, than demand independence on the grounds of their majority in the area.


14 posted on 03/05/2014 1:31:42 PM PST by Samogon (Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something. - Plato)
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To: goldstategop

How is this any of our business?


15 posted on 03/05/2014 1:32:00 PM PST by Arthurio
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To: goldstategop

“Keeping Ukraine together by force means someone will always feel they got the raw end of the deal and such a country will never know true peace.”

You could say the same for splitting it by force, which is what I see happening now. We can’t really talk about “civil” anything until masked, armed illegal combatants are not an issue anymore, eh? Haven’t we learned that from Israel?


16 posted on 03/05/2014 1:35:23 PM PST by Boogieman
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To: Samogon

There are two Ukraines - one closer to Europe and one closer to Moscow.

They are really two separate nations for all practical extents and purposes. That’s why the country is a political football between the West and Russia and its Ukrainians who are paying the price.


17 posted on 03/05/2014 1:35:55 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: MNDude
Which one is which?

Or rather, is there any “good” side? The one who was democratically elected, or the one who is anti Russian?

18 posted on 03/05/2014 1:36:26 PM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

And the former Yugoslavian nation as well.


19 posted on 03/05/2014 1:36:32 PM PST by Biggirl (“Go, do not be afraid, and serve”-Pope Francis)
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To: dfwgator

Left out too:

North and South Vietnam,

India and Pakistan,

Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina,

Serbia and Kosovo (split by the NATO bombing of 80 days and invasion). 15 years later, American soldiers are still in Kosovo, but no one knows why.


20 posted on 03/05/2014 1:37:32 PM PST by Marguerite (When I'm good, I'm very good, but when I'm bad, I'm even better)
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To: Arthurio

In an ideal world, no one’s.

But this is territory fought over by empires and through an accident of history Ukraine is now the object of a bitter battle between Brussels and Moscow.


21 posted on 03/05/2014 1:38:12 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

EU will assimiliate 1/2 the country.

EU and US just won’t give up.

Well, not as long as new world order globalists tell them not to.

I have to laugh at joining the EU means “self-determination”.

Joining the EU means giving up self-determination.

Nations that join the EU are required to submit to EU-Acquis.


22 posted on 03/05/2014 1:41:39 PM PST by PieterCasparzen (We have to fix things ourselves)
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To: goldstategop
"They are really two separate nations for all practical extents and purposes."

Ukraine, 2010 - presidential election. Red - votes for Timoschenko (45%) (most of the people speak ukrainian), blue - votes for Yanoukovich (48.5%)(most speak russian)


23 posted on 03/05/2014 1:46:20 PM PST by Marguerite (When I'm good, I'm very good, but when I'm bad, I'm even better)
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To: Samogon
Czech and Slovak Republics are two different nations formalizing their divorce. What does it have to do with Ukraine?

Do at least a minimal review of the last 800 years of Crimean history, and not only will you be able to answer your question yourself...you will be embarrassed that you asked it to begin with.

24 posted on 03/05/2014 1:47:10 PM PST by MrEdd (Heck? Geewhiz Cripes, thats the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aint going.)
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To: goldstategop

Roughly half of US is Conservative (West?) and another half is Liberal (East?). Does that justify a break-up of our country? In Ukraine it is not even half/half, Russian minority is only 15%, and not even majority of them is pro-Russia.


25 posted on 03/05/2014 1:49:41 PM PST by Samogon (Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something. - Plato)
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To: MrEdd

Oh, please, indulge me.
You are probably going to say that Crimea is not historically Ukrainian. The answer is that NONE of Earth regions is homogenous, but you guys feel good dividing just Ukraine.


26 posted on 03/05/2014 1:53:22 PM PST by Samogon (Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something. - Plato)
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To: MrEdd

I’m ignorant too. Can you give a summary?


27 posted on 03/05/2014 1:54:22 PM PST by MNDude
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To: MNDude

it always worked out for the capitalist side and horrible for the socialist side.

<><><><><

North and South Viet Nam.


28 posted on 03/05/2014 1:55:00 PM PST by dmz
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To: dfwgator

This may well just happen—and it might be the best way to avoid war—Russia needs a land link to Criema—lots of Russians live in that area and might welcome “Mother Russia” —Let those russians living in western Ukraine—move there, let the Tartars move to the west—Happy, Happy.


29 posted on 03/05/2014 1:58:57 PM PST by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll)
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To: Samogon
Roughly half of US is Conservative (West?) and another half is Liberal (East?). Does that justify a break-up of our country? In Ukraine it is not even half/half, Russian minority is only 15%, and not even majority of them is pro-Russia.

Ultimately, Ukraine's fate is in the hands of Ukrainians. This back-and-forth in terms of talking with the West and with Russia can only reduce the cost of keeping Ukraine's sovereignty. If Ukraine really wants the Crimea back, Russia doesn't have the staying power to keep it. The cost will be the lives of thousands or tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives. This is a yet another demonstration of the truisms that freedom isn't free, and that countries can ultimately only look to themselves for their own defense.

30 posted on 03/05/2014 2:06:43 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: goldstategop

If territorial integrity is up for grabs (N and S Sudan, Ukraine), what about a Kurdish nation consisting of the Kurdish areas of Iraq, Turkey, and Syria? A connection to the Mediterranean through what is now Syria so the Kurds can export oil readily.


31 posted on 03/05/2014 2:13:23 PM PST by omega4412
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To: Samogon
"They are really two separate nations for all practical extents and purposes."

Note the way the Crimea sticks out into the Black Sea -- oh wait, that's Florida!

32 posted on 03/05/2014 2:37:50 PM PST by Meet the New Boss
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To: Samogon

No one is joyous something like this. We honestly have better things in our lives to concentrate on besides having to worry about this mess.

However, we have 3 options here that will be the result of this situation.

1)Ukraine splits into two nations.

2) Russia settles in in this de facto puppet nation (like what happened to Cyprus with Turkey) for what will be a new Cold War that could last for years and lead to all sorts of proxy conflicts.

3) Full on shooting war that gets out of control and goes nuclear.

One will kill millions and solve noting. One will kill lots of people and will cost billions to wage for years. The other will cost half of Ukraine, cause lots of hurt feelings, and leave us looking weak for a long time.


33 posted on 03/05/2014 3:02:12 PM PST by VanDeKoik
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To: GeronL
The southwestern US can become part of Mexico too, using the same reasoning

If we let more of them in or give the ones here citizenship they can eventually make a credible case for that.

Which is why the deportation busses should be running 24/7 until the citizens of Mexico become a tiny minority of annoying visitors in the United States.

A velvet divorce for Ukraine is what should happen. Czechs and Slovaks had less differences. The Germanic / West Slavs in Ukraine have nothing but their memory of the Holomodor and the Tsars.

It would be far more stable. But not clear that would appease Tsar Vlad; he knows that Kiev was the birthplace of Russia and he wants control of the pipelines right up to center of Europe.

34 posted on 03/05/2014 3:07:15 PM PST by Regulator
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To: Regulator

bump


35 posted on 03/05/2014 3:21:40 PM PST by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans!)
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To: goldstategop

The US should have a divorce, too. California to Mexico, New York and New England to Britain (both are on the path to ruin) ,Miami to Cuba, Delaware to Sweden (give them Joe Biden) and Hawaii to the Hawaiians. The rest would be a conservative USA.


36 posted on 03/05/2014 3:50:42 PM PST by ExCTCitizen (2014: The Year of DEAD RINOS)
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To: Boogieman
“A civilized divorce is better than a bad civil war.”

If this were clearly a civil war, this would probably be true.

"The moving RiNO writes, and having writ, moves on ..... "

These guys have all the clarity of mud. Remember the "best and the brightest"? RiNO foreign policy gurus, same deal.

If Great Russian ethnics clearly find life intolerably harsh and disappointing under the administration of their now-independent "little brothers" the Ukrainians, then let them seek a new life elsewhere among other Great Russians (and Kalmyks, and Tatars, and ....) in the vastness of Siberia. Being free of the Ukrainians should be incentive enough for them to pack up and move out.

No carve-up of the Ukraine. No more Sudetenlands. We've seen that movie and should have learned something from it.

37 posted on 03/05/2014 5:29:39 PM PST by lentulusgracchus
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To: Regulator; GeronL
If we let more of them in or give the ones here citizenship they can eventually make a credible case for that.

No, that was yesterday -- about 20 years ago. Now they want the whole enchilada. The NALEO guys have tipped their hands in private conversations: They think they can become the swing bloc in American politics and negotiate their way to power undreamt-of. Why talk about running the gueros out of the West ...... when you can rule them all with an iron fist, from Atlantic to Pacific?

"Para la Raza, todo; para los otros, nada."

38 posted on 03/05/2014 5:34:20 PM PST by lentulusgracchus
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To: goldstategop

Czecho-Slovakia becoming the Czech Republic and Slovakia were the epitome of this peaceful divorce. But both sides wanted to separate.
In the case of Ukraine, Russia moved in millions of Russians over several decades and is now claiming strategic ports on the basis of protecting its peoples.
We have to be careful with the precedence, or else the Kurdish region of Turkey goes to Iraq and large portions of the U.S. go to Mexico.


39 posted on 03/05/2014 5:39:57 PM PST by tbw2
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To: All

“Serbia and Kosovo (split by the NATO bombing of 80 days and invasion). 15 years later, American soldiers are still in Kosovo, but no one knows why.”

Pro-Russian Demonstration In Belgrade, Serbia
3 March 2014
People rallied in front of the Russian Embassy in Belgrade to support Russia’s actions in Crimea.
One sign says: “Crimea is Russia, as Kosovo is Serbia”

http://www.rferl.org/media/video/skup-podrske-rusiji-u-beogradu/25286894.html


40 posted on 03/05/2014 5:40:03 PM PST by Marguerite (When I'm good, I'm very good, but when I'm bad, I'm even better)
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To: edcoil

“You gotta keep ‘em separated.”


41 posted on 03/05/2014 5:59:41 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: Samogon

Liberal/Conservative isn’t based on a region of a country...It’s based more on rural vs. urban.


42 posted on 03/05/2014 6:01:13 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: tbw2
MSNBC didn't get the memo,


43 posted on 03/05/2014 6:03:51 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: Samogon

It doesn’t matter if a country is formed that is 100% ethnically, politically, and religiously homogenous. Soon enough, they will all split roughly in half over some ideological shibboleth or another. It’s human nature, both to be part of some “tribe”, and to have another handy “tribe” to have a constant rivalry with.


44 posted on 03/05/2014 6:22:37 PM PST by Boogieman
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To: lentulusgracchus
when you can rule them all with an iron fist, from Atlantic to Pacific?

We will Rule You, Greengo!

Yup. That's the plan.

What they could not make...they will try to take.

Imagine a United States where the descendants of the hated Conquistadors - the sworn enemies of the Anglo Americans - end up with effective control of the American nuclear arsenal.

They imagine it all the time. It's the kind of power they could never have hoped to build on their own.

And we have a Left wing who demands that we salute them and call them "Americans".

Nothing could be further from the truth.

45 posted on 03/05/2014 7:33:08 PM PST by Regulator
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