Russia’s strategy in the Ukrainian crisis

The Centre for Eastern Studies ^ | 2014-03-05 | Marek Menkiszak

[lizol]

Russia’s strategy in the Ukrainian crisis Analyses

2014-03-05 Marek Menkiszak

The toppling of the Yanukovych regime and the taking over of power in Ukraine by the opposition were a strategic defeat for Russia, whose aim had been to permanently block the process of Ukraine’s European integration and make the country part of Russia's own integration project, the Eurasian Union. It also delivered a blow to the image of president Putin as an effective leader. After the failed attempt at creating, with Russian political support, an alternative centre of power in Kharkiv that would represent the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, Russia decided to activate the separatist movement in the autonomous Crimea. Moscow actively backed it through military intervention and de facto occupation of the peninsula. It also undertook subversive activities in eastern and southern Ukraine, and enmassed troops along the Ukrainian border.

Russia’s maximum plan is apparently to bring about a reconstruction of the Ukrainian government that would involve including pro-Russian politicians, and a change of the country’s system of government, with the eastern and southern regions gaining broad political and economic autonomy. Such an outcome would give Russia a powerful lever to influence Ukraine and its policies. The alternative would be to have the eastern and southern regions proclaim broad autonomy without Kyiv’s approval. If those plans fail, Russia will probably seek to partially neutralise its defeat by backing the independence of Crimea or even its incorporation into the Russian Federation in the longer term, without giving up further attempts at destabilising Ukraine.

[pierrem15]

Seems dated already: looks like Russia is moving towards the full anschluss of the Crimea.

[bravo whiskey]

this could really get interestin if they keep the crimea but don’t get the rest of ukraine. now they have a province cut off from the rest of the country.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Russia’s strategy in the Ukrainian crisis

1) Take what you want.
2) Flip Obama the bird
3) Make Obama and Kerry look like bloody fools

Repeat as necessary.

[Tallguy]

“The toppling of the Yanukovych regime and the taking over of power in Ukraine by the opposition were a strategic defeat for Russia...”

Wow. This is like the sportswriter who is marveling at the visiting team scoring a run in the top of the first inning only to have Putin running up the score in the bottom half of the inning.

[pierrem15]

Looks like the rent-a-mob pro-Russian agitation in the east and south petered out, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it come back.

[lizol]

Keep in mind, that Crimea is fully dependent on the mainland Ukraine. Water, electric power, gas, etc. - all that stuff is being supplied from there, not from Russia (which has no land connection with the peninsula).