Skip to comments.Why Steve Jobs’ Computer Paradigm Shift Prediction Panned Out, and What it Means for the Market
Posted on 03/08/2014 12:36:27 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVetEdited on 03/09/2014 9:34:22 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
Traditional hard drive manufacturers are currently going through a paradigm shift—one where new solid-state hard drives, known as SSD, are taking market share and slowly eliminating traditional hard drives. SSD hard drives of one terabyte or more are slowly becoming affordable to the masses.
(Excerpt) Read more at wiglafjournal.com ...
Assuming you've got enough RAM and a reasonably fast CPU, the best way to boost the subjective performance of a machine is to substitute a solid state disk for the rotating kind.
Hard drives are going to go the way of CRTs. Suddenly gone.
re: “disruptive competitive paces”
I think the point of the article is about disruptive technologies that relegate the slackers to the dustbin of yesterday’s innovations.
Boycott SSDs so liberal Steve Jobs will be wrong!
SSDs don't strike me as a good example of the phenomenon Christensen identified.
Just as flat screens are better than CRTs, SSDs are better than rotating media. But just as the industry took a while to learn to make flat screens more cheaply than CRTs, it also took a while to learn to make SSDs work cost effectively. SSDs are fantastically complicated technology. Both SSDs and flat screens are further down the natural learning curve. Jobs may deserve some credit for early recognition of the value of SSDs and high-resolution flat touchscreens, but then he always had expensive tastes and the will to make same sufficiently affordable to use in his products.
Christensen's phenomenon lies at a higher level than normal technological evolution. It is a mechanism by which the market adjusts to new possibilities afforded by technological progress. It applies, for example, to the recognition that you can use a smart phone or tablet to perform a certain significant fraction of what you used to do on your desktop or laptop. That's basic business sense, but obvious only in retrospect. Flat screens and SSDs are enablers for that. But it took vision to recognize the opportunities afforded by the technological progress and energy to realize them. Jobs obviously deserves a lot of credit.
Actually, the article's main thrust is to criticize Seagate for trying to delay the inevitable (success of SSDs) in 2010. So, I suppose that is a valid, but narrow, example of Christensen's principle.
You make a good point as far as the manufacturing of SSDs is concerned — the “big” disk market rolled into the “big” memory market.
I started using SDD once I could get 250gb for $200 or less. Its better to have your OS and Apps on SDD than on traditional HDD which I still use for storage. The speed just make it worth it
SSD were really pioneered by Intel back in the 90’s but it took awhile for prices and density to catch up w std drives.
The best ssd are in new macbook pro and use Pci-e bus instead of sata.
People continue to wail and gnash their teeth at the implications of cloud storage, and they vow to never be a party to it, but it is coming nevertheless.
What this "cloud storage" means is that all your data will be located in a central repository. Or more accurately, fragmented across thousands upon thousands of "cloud" data centers (for optimum redundancy) in which it can be quickly assembled and delivered to any device upon demand, so long as the proper credentials are established at the given device to gain access - mostly username and password today, but soon fingerprints, retina scan or even voice recognition will become the new standards.
The advantages of cloud storage include the fact that your data is stored multiple times at data centers across the world. So if an earthquake takes out the West Coast or if the entire Eastern Seaboard slides into the Atlantic Ocean, your data will still be preserved as it can be re-assembled using the other redundant data centers scattered about the planet. Of course if a large asteroid strikes the Earth and all human life is wiped out, well data storage will be the least of our concerns anyhow.
Already we are seeing cloud storage with respect to multimedia. Much fewer people purchase music on compact discs these days. Instead, they purchase the mp3's online and while they can choose to download the mp3 to their local computer, they will always have it available in the cloud to stream or re-download it if they wish. Ditto for video content. Millions of people now stream TV shows and movies from content providers like Netflix and Hulu. Soon, DVDs will be as rare as videocassettes.
If you already use a backup service for your personal data such as Mozy or Carbonite, you have already been assimilated into cloud storage of your data.
Consider the case of the poor soul who meticulously backed up all his data on local drives and storage media. Then one day his house burned down and he lost his primary computer and backup storage all in one shot. Well, cloud storage would have allowed this person to download all his personal data, his photos, his work files, his writing, etc, onto new computer devices.
So cloud storage is coming and it's here to stay. Eventually you will be able to order a PC, a tablet or a MacBook Pro and have it delivered to you with all your data including all your software and settings from your old devices. All you need to do is authenticate with your new device and it will be there waiting for you. Every single keystroke you make will be sent to the cloud so you never have to hit the "save" button again.
Speed is nice, but what’s the reliability? Disk drives crash. Do these? If they aren’t super reliable they are worthless.
And the ultimate question is which ones are the ones that emerge when their are multiple advances and which ones fail. The old Beta-Max vs VHS, etc etc. Another one is CVT transmissions. I know of one firm that invested heavily in it only to have no consumer enthusiasm and no volume so they canned it. Imagine if the Boeing 747 was not accepted and became a dud, Boeing would be gone.
If you bet wrong or the firms who do not get accepted in the marketplace, they (or our portfolio's), end up in the dust heap of history.
As I manage several hundred PCs as part of what I do, I am constantly asked what laptop or pc or whatever to buy.
I tell every one of them to find the features they want, buy the box as cheap as they can(laptop or pc, mac) and buy an SSD. Most people listen to me and I usually image their new HD onto an SSD and they are astonished at how fast the machine is.
I build computers for myself, my family and all the specialty equipment machines at work(cheap run of the mill whatever boxes for everything else). I only put spinning platters in when I need big capacity. Everything else gets SSDs. In the last several years, I’ve purchased at least 25 SSDs, and capacity is growing every time. Smallest I get now are 256gb. Samsung EVOs or Pros mostly.
While cloud storage is great for backups, it blows if you don’t have a network connection. Until the network is ubiquitous everywhere you go, you’re only going to backup to the cloud and store non-essentials out there. While you can tether to your phone and pick up wifi here and there, it’s not everywhere yet.
There’s also the issue of data security. No company is going to put strategic path data out into some nameless server farm on the internet. Could you imagine Walmart not being able to ring up sales because “the cloud is down”? Not going to happen. There will always be local copies of critical data. Always and forever.
Not to mention that if you can’t stand on your data and defend it with a gun, you don’t own it. Some IT dude in a different part of the world could make off with your secrets...what are you going to do about it? It’s 2 months later when you’ve figured it out.
Cloud computing has a place that will grow in importance, but it will never supplant local access entirely and this is where the SSD will be king.
Within the next few years, we may start seeing SSD's storing one to two terabytes costing not much more than hard drives of similar capacity. Imagine booting any version of Windows in only a few seconds....
More reliable than disk drives. They can take 1500g shocks. Try that with your spinning platter. Your computer will be a pile of scrap and the SSD will survive.
Not only more reliable, they generate almost no heat and use less energy.
The only downside is lifespan. A standard drive in very heavy usage will start to lose capacity. As memory in it hits a certain number of cycles, the disc itself will turn off that location and the capacity of the drive goes down. The fact of the matter is that in normal usage, a normal drive will last 20+ years. If you buy "PRO" drives with better memory, they will last 40+ years.
By the time they are wore out, you'll have replaced the computer several times over.
More memory, faster speed, and eventually lower price.
these are super reliable because no moving parts.......thats why they first started in laptops and industrial computers. my company uses them on forklift computers........as for Jobs, major lib, but the genius of our time none the less
If an SSD does malfunction, what about data retrieval (if not backed up)? I’d heard that this is a problem. Is this true?