Skip to comments.Why Steve Jobs’ Computer Paradigm Shift Prediction Panned Out, and What it Means for the Market
Posted on 03/08/2014 12:36:27 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVetEdited on 03/09/2014 9:34:22 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
Traditional hard drive manufacturers are currently going through a paradigm shift—one where new solid-state hard drives, known as SSD, are taking market share and slowly eliminating traditional hard drives. SSD hard drives of one terabyte or more are slowly becoming affordable to the masses.
(Excerpt) Read more at wiglafjournal.com ...
Assuming you've got enough RAM and a reasonably fast CPU, the best way to boost the subjective performance of a machine is to substitute a solid state disk for the rotating kind.
Hard drives are going to go the way of CRTs. Suddenly gone.
re: “disruptive competitive paces”
I think the point of the article is about disruptive technologies that relegate the slackers to the dustbin of yesterday’s innovations.
Boycott SSDs so liberal Steve Jobs will be wrong!
SSDs don't strike me as a good example of the phenomenon Christensen identified.
Just as flat screens are better than CRTs, SSDs are better than rotating media. But just as the industry took a while to learn to make flat screens more cheaply than CRTs, it also took a while to learn to make SSDs work cost effectively. SSDs are fantastically complicated technology. Both SSDs and flat screens are further down the natural learning curve. Jobs may deserve some credit for early recognition of the value of SSDs and high-resolution flat touchscreens, but then he always had expensive tastes and the will to make same sufficiently affordable to use in his products.
Christensen's phenomenon lies at a higher level than normal technological evolution. It is a mechanism by which the market adjusts to new possibilities afforded by technological progress. It applies, for example, to the recognition that you can use a smart phone or tablet to perform a certain significant fraction of what you used to do on your desktop or laptop. That's basic business sense, but obvious only in retrospect. Flat screens and SSDs are enablers for that. But it took vision to recognize the opportunities afforded by the technological progress and energy to realize them. Jobs obviously deserves a lot of credit.
Actually, the article's main thrust is to criticize Seagate for trying to delay the inevitable (success of SSDs) in 2010. So, I suppose that is a valid, but narrow, example of Christensen's principle.
You make a good point as far as the manufacturing of SSDs is concerned — the “big” disk market rolled into the “big” memory market.
I started using SDD once I could get 250gb for $200 or less. Its better to have your OS and Apps on SDD than on traditional HDD which I still use for storage. The speed just make it worth it
SSD were really pioneered by Intel back in the 90’s but it took awhile for prices and density to catch up w std drives.
The best ssd are in new macbook pro and use Pci-e bus instead of sata.
People continue to wail and gnash their teeth at the implications of cloud storage, and they vow to never be a party to it, but it is coming nevertheless.
What this "cloud storage" means is that all your data will be located in a central repository. Or more accurately, fragmented across thousands upon thousands of "cloud" data centers (for optimum redundancy) in which it can be quickly assembled and delivered to any device upon demand, so long as the proper credentials are established at the given device to gain access - mostly username and password today, but soon fingerprints, retina scan or even voice recognition will become the new standards.
The advantages of cloud storage include the fact that your data is stored multiple times at data centers across the world. So if an earthquake takes out the West Coast or if the entire Eastern Seaboard slides into the Atlantic Ocean, your data will still be preserved as it can be re-assembled using the other redundant data centers scattered about the planet. Of course if a large asteroid strikes the Earth and all human life is wiped out, well data storage will be the least of our concerns anyhow.
Already we are seeing cloud storage with respect to multimedia. Much fewer people purchase music on compact discs these days. Instead, they purchase the mp3's online and while they can choose to download the mp3 to their local computer, they will always have it available in the cloud to stream or re-download it if they wish. Ditto for video content. Millions of people now stream TV shows and movies from content providers like Netflix and Hulu. Soon, DVDs will be as rare as videocassettes.
If you already use a backup service for your personal data such as Mozy or Carbonite, you have already been assimilated into cloud storage of your data.
Consider the case of the poor soul who meticulously backed up all his data on local drives and storage media. Then one day his house burned down and he lost his primary computer and backup storage all in one shot. Well, cloud storage would have allowed this person to download all his personal data, his photos, his work files, his writing, etc, onto new computer devices.
So cloud storage is coming and it's here to stay. Eventually you will be able to order a PC, a tablet or a MacBook Pro and have it delivered to you with all your data including all your software and settings from your old devices. All you need to do is authenticate with your new device and it will be there waiting for you. Every single keystroke you make will be sent to the cloud so you never have to hit the "save" button again.
Speed is nice, but what’s the reliability? Disk drives crash. Do these? If they aren’t super reliable they are worthless.
And the ultimate question is which ones are the ones that emerge when their are multiple advances and which ones fail. The old Beta-Max vs VHS, etc etc. Another one is CVT transmissions. I know of one firm that invested heavily in it only to have no consumer enthusiasm and no volume so they canned it. Imagine if the Boeing 747 was not accepted and became a dud, Boeing would be gone.
If you bet wrong or the firms who do not get accepted in the marketplace, they (or our portfolio's), end up in the dust heap of history.
As I manage several hundred PCs as part of what I do, I am constantly asked what laptop or pc or whatever to buy.
I tell every one of them to find the features they want, buy the box as cheap as they can(laptop or pc, mac) and buy an SSD. Most people listen to me and I usually image their new HD onto an SSD and they are astonished at how fast the machine is.
I build computers for myself, my family and all the specialty equipment machines at work(cheap run of the mill whatever boxes for everything else). I only put spinning platters in when I need big capacity. Everything else gets SSDs. In the last several years, I’ve purchased at least 25 SSDs, and capacity is growing every time. Smallest I get now are 256gb. Samsung EVOs or Pros mostly.
While cloud storage is great for backups, it blows if you don’t have a network connection. Until the network is ubiquitous everywhere you go, you’re only going to backup to the cloud and store non-essentials out there. While you can tether to your phone and pick up wifi here and there, it’s not everywhere yet.
There’s also the issue of data security. No company is going to put strategic path data out into some nameless server farm on the internet. Could you imagine Walmart not being able to ring up sales because “the cloud is down”? Not going to happen. There will always be local copies of critical data. Always and forever.
Not to mention that if you can’t stand on your data and defend it with a gun, you don’t own it. Some IT dude in a different part of the world could make off with your secrets...what are you going to do about it? It’s 2 months later when you’ve figured it out.
Cloud computing has a place that will grow in importance, but it will never supplant local access entirely and this is where the SSD will be king.
Within the next few years, we may start seeing SSD's storing one to two terabytes costing not much more than hard drives of similar capacity. Imagine booting any version of Windows in only a few seconds....
More reliable than disk drives. They can take 1500g shocks. Try that with your spinning platter. Your computer will be a pile of scrap and the SSD will survive.
Not only more reliable, they generate almost no heat and use less energy.
The only downside is lifespan. A standard drive in very heavy usage will start to lose capacity. As memory in it hits a certain number of cycles, the disc itself will turn off that location and the capacity of the drive goes down. The fact of the matter is that in normal usage, a normal drive will last 20+ years. If you buy "PRO" drives with better memory, they will last 40+ years.
By the time they are wore out, you'll have replaced the computer several times over.
More memory, faster speed, and eventually lower price.
these are super reliable because no moving parts.......thats why they first started in laptops and industrial computers. my company uses them on forklift computers........as for Jobs, major lib, but the genius of our time none the less
If an SSD does malfunction, what about data retrieval (if not backed up)? I’d heard that this is a problem. Is this true?
Can anyone spell.....artificial intelligence? Autonomous robotics? Miniaturization will be a driving factor in this technology.
Yes. But unlike a hard disk which can be broken when dropped but still readable (for a high fee) these are not broken when they are dropped. But when SSDs go bad they are unwritable and often unreadable. There are lots of measures taken to prevent that such as overprovisioning and they also try to ensure that they are still readable even if they are not writeable.
But they are complex, so I would always back them up, avoid using them for high amounts of write, and keep them less than half full.
What is most likely to fail is the controller. A data retrieval shop can fix that easily. If the internal chips fail, the data is gone. If a hard drive platter has a head bounce, that data is gone just the same. That said, SSDs don't catastrophically fail like that. The memory doesn't just all go wonky at the same time. The controller slowly turns off bits that it considers used up. What's mostly likely to happen is that you have a very very old computer that started out with a 128gb SSD that now has a working capacity of 100gb....next year it's 96gb..etc.
My work laptop just got outfitted with a SSD (Windows 7).
Bootup/shutdown times GREATLY improved.
The laptop is also noticeably lighter.
It can be a problem. Depends on firmware on the SSD, the hard disk drivers and the OS. Certain failure modes can result in garbage overwriting good data.
And I would add that present flash technology is lousy and will soon be eclipsed by other solid state technology such as memristor. Flash has the big problem of limited write cycles and data evaporation.
For storage of large amounts of data present SSD disk emulation inherently limits the rate at which a large amount of data can be read from a single SSD via the current interface. We need a new interface that has a lot of parallel channels. Rotating disks couldn’t make use of this but solid state memory could.
Can I replace the old disc HD in my MacBook with an SSD? That is, are they interchangeable, now?
Couldn’t anyone have predicted this, like the end of the diskette? It was only a question of when.
Yes, you can replace your HD with an SSD. They are mainly packaged in the same form factor to fit as replacement. I would look on Pricewatch.com to find the best price for a size you need at a reasonable price.
I recently purchased a laptop with an extra drive bay, waiting for the need, and the price, to jump on the bandwagon. I’m just about there.
I am a development engineer for one of the two major chip manufacturers of hard disk controllers...we are still designing HDD SoC’s for Seagate, Hitachi and WD, but we also have been doing SSD’s for several years now. For the near future, you will see ‘Hybrid’ drives that use both technologies, but as we move towards 16nM processes, Flash memories will approach the capacities of hard disk platens and the cost will come down. As to reliability, anything that does not require moving parts is more reliable.
Can you share your top 2 or 3 retail outlets?
Do external SSD drive performance match internal drive performance?
“Couldnt anyone have predicted this, like the end of the diskette? It was only a question of when.”
Critics of Seagate simply don’t know what they are talking about. The owner-managers of Seagate are making a ton of money selling hard disk drives, because the SSD (Solid State Drives) have not yet reached a low enough price and high enough storage capacity to supplant the hard disk drives (HDD). Yes, this situation is changing in favor of the SSD. In the meantime, Seagate must make hay while the Sun shines, and sell as many of the HDD as they can to profit from the costs they incurred to build the HDD manufacturing plants.
When the SSD are finally able to supplant HDD through competitive capacities, pricing, and reliability, the leadership of Seagate can do one of two things. They can maximize their personal gain through the sale of their Seagate stock options and stock as Seagate declines and is eliminated from the market, or they can use the current income advantage to purchase one or more of the companies who are the manufacturers of SSD products to regain market share in the storage business.
In either case, Seagate leadership must maximize the income they make from today’s HDD sales, regardless of the future of SSD products.
When my iMac hard drive (HD) wore out, I did a double transplant. I upgraded my original HD to two terabytes and I replaced the CD drive with a 256-gigabyte solid state drive (SSD). I designated the SSD as my main drive and reinstalled all my applications and commonly used file directories on the SSD.
My four-year-old iMac feels like a new computer. File-bound operations, including initial boot and starting up applications, are about three times as fast. Everything just springs to life.
For $300 (the combined price of the new drives), I got myself a brand new computer. It’s not as thin as the brand-new iMacs, but the performance is remarkable.
I'd be willing to bet that most of the firms that offer cloud based storage are leveraged to the gills, leasing their data centers, their servers, their storage. For those that are fastest growing in the sector, what happens to the customer's data when they skip a few months' payments in the next downturn and the repo men come to take the drives/SSDs?
The way the risk/reward ratio works these days practically drives new entrants to that approach, and, no, I have no idea what to do about it!
The cloud will never win. It has too many problems. Not the least of which being what happens when you lose connectivity. And on the personal level there’s the fact that lots of us have stuff on our computer we don’t want out in the world.
The simple fact is the cloud is a step backwards, it’s going back to the hub/ thin client model. Technology doesn’t go backwards it goes forwards. It’s why trains won’t replace cars.
The big reason buying MP3s has replaced buying CDs is because listening to MP3s has replaced listening to CDs. People buy a CD rip it and never touch it again. This replacement had already happened before anybody started adding the cloud to their MP3 selling method. That’s just a checkbox feature to compete with other MP3 sellers.
The stream can’t replace ownership. What we’re seeing is people deciding they don’t need to own a movie, they’re OK finding it (or not) on stream. But anything you actually want to have available you don’t want to stream because every couple of years there’s a good chance what you want will no longer be on your stream service.
People have been predicting a return to the thin client for longer than the 20 years I’ve been in software. The name keeps changing, the inaccuracy of the prediction remains the same.
My job takes me to many branch offices so not too long ago, packing an RJ-45 cable was a must because as soon as I arrived at a branch, I had to search for an available jack to get plugged into the network. I also carried a Sprint wireless card but it was notoriously unreliable.
Now every branch is fully wireless so my devices automatically connect to the network as soon as I enter the building. Ditto for home. I remember about 10 years ago considering major overhaul to my home so that I could install RJ-45 jacks in every room. Now even my home is fully wireless and the broadband is blazingly fast. It's been a couple years since I fussed with an RJ-45 patch cable.
The final link is the in between places but we are getting there fast. Most coffee shops, airports, and other public spaces now have broadband wireless options (hotspots). In fact, you can now setup your own hotspot with a smartphone.
All of this is progressing rather quickly. Companies like Google and Verizon are putting in much infrastructure to support coast-to-coast (and soon global) "always on" wireless capability. So you will soon be able to access your Gmail or files from anywhere on the planet.
Now people have privacy concerns about their personal data being in the cloud but I don't think they understand how their data is stored. Most cloud-based storage will break your data into bits and store them across multiple servers. So a piece of your file might be in Kansas City, another piece might be at a data center in Arizona, and so forth. When you request one of your cloud files, the pieces are collected and assembled before being delivered to you. All of this happens in milliseconds by the way and bits of your data are duplicated in multiple locations so that if one data center goes down, you are still able to assemble your files from the other locations.
For those super concerned about security, you can encrypt your data so that it will be useless to other people, even if they are able to collect all the pieces and put them together without your knowledge.
Yes, there are still ways for a determined hacker (or NSA) to breach your security measures. However, storing all your data on a local device is probably the least secure method of all because all it would take is for somebody to steal your computer (or hack into it) and they will have everything all at once.
In 2005 we put in solid state drives for our ERP system. Back then all of us in IT knew ssd would end up replacing hard drives. Seems like Jobs was 5 years behind the times. Of course we are running on MS platform, so forgive us for only being 5 years ahead of his proclamation.
The easiest way to look at ssd is to think how fast would my applications run if I replaced ny hard drive with a giant memory stick.
We’re not nearly as fully connected as people think. Farm country is barely connected if at all. And even in the well connected chunks of the world connections get interrupted. Lost my cable (internet and phone) for nearly an hour last week. My office WILL lose connectivity during the summer monsoons, luckily we’re not cloud so productivity will go up as we can no longer goof off on the net.
Total permanent connection is decades out at best. Yeah companies on either coast talk about it, but those initiatives all slow down dramatically when they get more than 100 miles away from the coast and find out just how much nothing there is in this country.
Part of the problem with storing private stuff on the cloud is that access anywhere problem. Even if your cloud provider doesn’t peak if you accidentally over connect all of a sudden a bunch of very “at home” stuff lands at work.
You hit the bullseye on that. I still buy CDs just because I like physical control of the medium if I want the whole album, but about the only place I play a CD is in the car because it came out a year before the external player connector was standard. Right now I'm considering reripping my CDs at 192 kbps because I finally have a player I can hear the difference from 128.
When my last CD player died I considered not replacing it and just using my bluray for the CDs, but I found one cheap which also had a USB interface for playing and ripping.
While I believe most of what you stated is quite accurate, if not spot-on, the biggest limiting factor will be the overall lack of bandwidth of the WAN(Wide Area Networks) and or Internet in our country. For it all to become a reality, most businesses will need more than a couple of T1s for their ‘pipe’ out to the Net, and that’s when you start getting into ‘real money’. After the initial ‘push’ into the “Cloud”(God I hate that buzzword as it’s commonly used), the throughput/bandwidth requirements isn’t as bad as most folks would think. Once the data is in place, only differential data needs to be uploaded to storage. Using compression for the transfer, it can be efficient.
Having said that, If I own a business, I’m running a ‘Private Cloud’.(this is what I built at work) No way in hell am I going to entrust my data to some location on the other side of the country, or world for that matter - to be physically managed/accessible to anonymous people. That’s not even getting into the many scenarios of snooping/espionage by .govs and others who may not have the best interests of my company in mind. For those that don’t run their own “Cloud”, STRONG encryption will be paramount. Both for the storage itself, and for the transmission of data.
Regarding what I consider to be the horrible state of the Internet, just imagine what could have been done in our country with all of the money wasted on TARP, (non)stimulus, and other bailouts/boondoggles during recent years. We could have developed a real WAN infrastructure comparable to the Interstate Highway system, but for data networks. Gigabit connections to every business/residential area. Combinations of fiber and 4G Wireless everywhere. Many of the displaced employees of ISPs, ect that work within the current infrastructure could have been hired on to work on and maintain the new one. I tend to be very Libertarian on most things, but if the government is going to ‘print’/borrow/waste money, it might as well put it toward something useful.
The SSD is faster than a hard drive, but the main advantage is very low power requirements, which makes the SSD the best choice for mobile computing, phones, music players, etc. Capacity is more expensive (much more), and SSD failures are without warning. A hard drive usually has some CRC failures and such first, giving the user some clue that it’s time to be replaced.
I still buy CDs because I still like physical ownership, and liner notes. But I’m getting more and more willing to not, CDs can be a problem to find (even in the amazon age) and my threshold for just getting the MP3 keeps dropping.
I suspect that smart manufacturers are going to be using similar setups for performance rigs; boot off SSD, with a disk for storage. Given the capacities you can get these days, you could pretty much ghost an image of your boot drive to your hard disk for quick restoral in case of hardware failure, and you really wouldn't notice the loss of space by much. An external drive would back up your data, which would also contain your $BOOT image.
That was part of the option one I mentioned. They leave the company before or after the bankruptcy or merger and acquisition with the options and stocks received as compensation along the way to the end of the company.
MBTF on SSDs isn't that bad, providing you are using it intelligently. If you are constantly writing to it, it's not going to last as long. If you use it to primarily read from, they will last as long, if not longer than a disk because there are no moving parts to break.
Not to mention the fact that you don't have a "reasonable expectation of privacy" for any data held by a 3rd party.
I'd like to shoot the person who came up with that evil phrase.
What’s the failure rate on SSD? I have never used one but would prolly buy a Samsung or Intel due to brand name
I replaced my friends (2009)laptop hard drive yesterday. It died
15 free GB cloud storage backup-— www.copy.com
He should have been using it
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