Skip to comments.Colorado Senate: Udall (D) 42%, Gardner (R) 41%
Posted on 03/10/2014 9:21:08 AM PDT by cotton1706
The first Rasmussen Reports look at Colorados likely 2014 U.S. Senate race finds that it's a dead heat.
A statewide telephone survey of Likely Colorado Voters shows incumbent Democrat Mark Udall with 42% of the vote, while his leading Republican challenger Cory Gardner earns 41%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and 13% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Colorado was conducted on March 5-6, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research,
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Now if he can stay on-message and not fall into a trap.
This should kill him in that state...
“Prevent criminals from buying and carrying deadly weapons. (Aug 2008)
Hunting & angling tradition generates income and jobs. (Mar 2008)
Voted YES on banning high-capacity magazines of over 10 bullets. (Apr 2013)
Voted YES on allowing firearms in checked baggage on Amtrak trains. (Apr 2009)
Voted NO on prohibiting product misuse lawsuits on gun manufacturers. (Oct 2005)
Voted NO on prohibiting suing gunmakers & sellers for gun misuse. (Apr 2003)
Voted NO on decreasing gun waiting period from 3 days to 1. (Jun 1999)
Rated F by the NRA, indicating a pro-gun control voting record. (Dec 2003)”
WOW, and Gardner has been in the race less than 2 weeks?
OK, in before the rush, time to panic. He’s peaking too early!
The important number here is not Gardner’s, but Udall’s. For an incumbent to only poll 42% is never a good sign, especially early in a campaign. The incumbent invariably has the advantage of name recognition, familiarity with record and positions on policy, etc. The challenger always is swimming uphill against these advantages.
For an incumbent to poll at 42%, the question has to be whether or not he can get to 51%. Usually a negative campaign is the only way. Of course, if Gardner makes a big gaff, it could turn around quickly as happened in the Claire McCaskill race.
Rasmussen is a Republican pollster. Who historically until the last two cycles been very accurate. In the last two he seems to have overestimated Republican strength. Since then he has apparently changed his model to one that is being democrat leaning in his polls. It seems as though he changed his turn out model from an overly Republican one to an overly Democrat one. So I bet Gardner is actually ahead.
Udall is a far left liberal per his voting record.
Is Colorado that freaking far left?
Entire Denver Metropolis is.
This is before any ads. No one but the politically active knows who Gardner is and udall has name recognition going for him. I would say our chances are excellent!
And boulder and pueblo.... The only city of size that leans right in Colorado is Colorado Springs.
Mark Udall at 42% is terrible for an incumbent.
No, Rasmussen is a former pollster. He was fired several months ago. His former polling firm has since swung far to the left.
Is this a runoff state?
Denver metro area is, and they have more than enough busses to move voters around the state as needed on election day.
We have GOT to get Udall out of there.
Colorado Ping ( Let me know if you wish to be added or removed from the list.)
Let’s see what happens once the gop REALLY starts supporting.....UDALL!
If Colorado voters go for a Democrat then they support a communists way of life. Same for any State. Democrats are communists and have destroyed much of America.
“Now if he can stay on-message and not fall into a trap.”
Exactly. But you know the media will be laying traps for Gardner at every turn. They will cover up for Udall at every turn. Hopefully over 50% of the people will be smart enough to see through this.
Udall is truly in trouble.
Some well placed ‘Kay Hagan-style’ ads will finish Udall off.
that’s exactly right. Gardner is an unknown quantity, but Udall is a sitting Senator with an even more famous last name, and he’s pulling just 42. He’ll have a hard time bringing that up 8 points
I hope the people of eastern Kalifornia (Colorado) keep in mind which party supports gun rights and which party doesn’t
13% undecided and only 42% for Udall. The only way Gardner looses is if he does something stupid. The 13% undies will break at least two to one for Gardner.
Watch the Denver comPost start digging around. If he pulled a girl's pigtail in kindergarten, then that'll be headline news.
Udall has name recognition...”The son of U.S. Sen. Mark Udall has been charged with breaking into a home and cars after allegedly using heroin.”
Home of LT Joe Kenda aka “Homicide Hunter”........
“Now if he can stay on-message and not fall into a trap.”
Yeah, I think Cory is too smart to let that happen.
I’m pretty new to CO but based on what I am hearing, I agree with you.
Having Udall complain the day after indicates he is scared.
Always a good thing.
No need to go into all the inside baseball details, but former Governor Bill Owens made some bad decisions that split the party back in the 2004-2006 time frame.
Also, this was the election when Obama took Colorado based, in my opinion. on Bush fatigue.
“Im pretty new to CO but based on what I am hearing, I agree with you.”
I know Cory. Met his family and his parents the night of his first election victory of Congress. Did some work for him to help him win his first primary by depriving all his opponents of enough Assembly votes to make the ballot, leaving Cory the only man standing. Then lead the laugh section against Betsy “Marxy” in their one and only debate, and wrote a “gonzo” account of the debate that was the number one google hit about the debate, surpassing all of the tepid and lame MSM articles that were written.
So I’ve watched Cory pretty carefully. He’s quite polished and now very comfortable with the press. The folks at the Republican caucuses last week were all ecstatic about Cory being convinced to go against Udall so early in his career. Sadly enough though, Cory is the only bona fide superstar in Colorado Republican politics. One MSM outlet said the Republican bench in Colorado is only one person deep, namely Cory Gardner.
BTW, Cory IS a conservative, just not a shell-back like myself and so many of us here, so don’t believe a word from anyone here about Cory being a RINO: there’s light-years of difference between Cory and say, Lindsey Graham, John McCain, or Chis Christy.
“Watch the Denver comPost start digging around. If he pulled a girl’s pigtail in kindergarten, then that’ll be headline news.”
Yeah, no kidding! Like the crap they’ve pulled on Scott Walker claiming some sort of “illegal campaigning in college” twenty years ago. The problem is that it works with the idiots in this country a lot of the time.
Thanks for the update.
I’ll have to see if I’ve got some free funds to send his way.
What are the odds we can take out his cousin Tom in New Mexico? It would be great if we could flush both Udall’s in the same election.
That one is more difficult. Allen Weh is a septuagenarian retread, and he’d probably be lucky to get to 40% in the general. David Clements is much younger and harder-charging (though I believe he’s a Paulite), and would be a stronger opponent. Weh is still leading to be the nominee, however.
Cory Gardner is already running even and he just announced. Get his fundraising up and some ads from the Koch Brothers and we’ve got a 50/50 chance at least.
That will drive the liberals bonkers. ;-)
That makes it an even better idea.
Nearly all democrats are far left, even Republican states have elected far left democrat Senators.
Another star, besides Gardner, has been Scott Gessler who won the Secretary of State position. (He's running for governor in this election.)
To understand it all, it starts with Fred Barnes 2008 article on the Colorado Model. Here.
There's a quick read of how it happened from a 2010 Red State. Here.
The book mentioned is a good read, more in-depth, and shows how other states Democrats are working behind the scenes, here.
Colorado Progressive Democrats do have a good Get Out the Vote effort and it cannot be ignored. Colorado Republicans can win but only if we are united behind a specific candidate, which hasn't happened in some of our past elections. Democrats here work hard to depress the vote and split our tickets.
They do it in Montana too. They smile and try to run as Not Too Conservative and then they lose.
I'd only add, "they lose, and wonder why?" I do understand Republicans cannot run radical candidates and it's up to the candidate to come across as nice and electable. But I also agree with what you are saying, we too often lose because we are afraid to stand or defend conservative positions.
With any luck, Gardner will not fall into that trap in Colorado.
Good comments, and you are correct about Gessler being in the same category as Gardner.
“Colorado Republicans can win but only if we are united behind a specific candidate”
And to do that, it first requires we have sterling candidates like Gardner and Gessler, instead ones like that nutjob, Dan Maes.
Thanks. I was trying to be kind and not label Maes but you’re right. He proved to be a poor candidate who was in the right place at the right time to fool a bunch of people.
As time went on he was further exposed but by then it was too late to do anything different.
Vetting candidates is really important, whether they are Tea Party supported or not. Remembering that election, I think I remember Sarah Palin would not support Maes when asked.
Where is Maes now? Back undercover copping in Liberal, Kansas?
I actually received an email from Maes last week. I finally unsubscribed from his list but it was kind of interesting that he was still trying to use politics to get ahead.
I do agree with you on our having poor candidates and the so-called powers that be within the state party trying to force their candidates on us. It hasn’t worked well in the past. Bill Owens was a letdown towards the end.