I will agree that ultimately, some NG exports and thus the massive infrastructures to do so will be built. But don’t you think that this is astoundingly risky if (as I understand it) fracking technology is largely unused outside of Germany? By that I mean, with fracking, we have discovered NG in dozens of places it was never suspected of being present. We both know the rabid depth of eco-freakishness in the EU, plus we know the resistance that is there for NG terminals in CONUS. So building same is likely a 5-year proposition. Meanwhile, sooner or later the Euros are likely to catch on to fracking and if you are an owner of facilities and ships on say the East Coast and NG is discovered in Europe in bulk, then overnight those facilities are surplus.
LNG terminals in the CONUS are increasingly less problematic than, say, in 2005. Further, they are NON-problematic in Emirates and Qatar, where (believe it or not) they are still flaring natty. Given those countries' resources, you don't really expect that they WON'T build LNG terminals, do you? As a side note, pls consider that the Persian Gulf is a far, far more weather-and-tide friendly locale for LNG terminals than is the Gulf, ne c'est pas?
As to Germany, what the devil does fracking (and/or the Germans' refusal to utilise this technique) have to do with the export/import of LNG to that besotted bunch of bozos in the so-called "EU"? Hmmm? The geologists that I read, just btw, consider the likelihood of finding enormous deposits of "frackable" natty (if I may use such a term) is, anywhere other than off the Portuguese coast and possibly the near North Sea, rather lower than Merkel winning any given beauty pageant.