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Our prediction for CD 13 race [Florida Special Election today!]
Tampa Bay Times ^ | 03/10/2014 | Adam Smith

Posted on 03/11/2014 6:24:25 AM PDT by GIdget2004

As of Sunday, more than 122,000 votes had been cast in the special election for Congressional District 13 in Pinellas County. The Republican advantage in votes cast to date has grown to more 4,623 votes. Presumably, a lot of ballots come in today and tomorrow.

We had been arguing that the Republican lead in mail-in votes cast was below where Republican nominee David Jolly needed it to be, but there's no question after the past five days he heads into election day with the momentum and with some wind at his back (Just as Obama had in 2012 when early voting was much stronger than in this election).

A giant question is turnout. Republicans working with Jolly expect that by the time polls close Tuesday around 170,000 people will have voted - about half as many as voted in the 2012 presidential election. If that's accurate, Jolly probably is on track to win.

Alex Sink allies are counting on a higher turnout, more like 200,000, to deliver her the seat even though Republican turnout is typically higher on election day. Democrats do appear to have a stronger GOTV operation - because Ashley Walker & Co. know Democrats need a lot more pushing to vote - so a big turnout could put Sink over the top. Two hundred thousand-plus voters does seem plausible, even for a special election, given the amount of attention on the race. In 2010, more than 216,000 voters turned out in that district.

We assume Sink will win more independent votes than Jolly and that she will win more Republicans than Jolly wins Democrats, though still not a great many.

(Excerpt) Read more at tampabay.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2014midterms; adamsmith; alexsink; ashleywalker; davidjolly; fl2014; florida; tampa; tampabaytimes

1 posted on 03/11/2014 6:24:25 AM PDT by GIdget2004
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To: GIdget2004

(Cackle)....wasn’t it nice that “sure-fire” vote-getters -——Obama and Michele——campaigned for Dumbocrat Alex Sink while the two were lounging in Florida this past week?

ROTFLOL.


2 posted on 03/11/2014 6:28:20 AM PDT by Liz
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To: GIdget2004
Of course, I also predicted Mitt Romney would edge Barack Obama in Florida in 2012.

He did. If you remove Rat voter fraud.

3 posted on 03/11/2014 6:29:41 AM PDT by ChildOfThe60s ((If you can remember the 60s.....you weren't really there)
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To: GIdget2004

bkmk


4 posted on 03/11/2014 6:29:43 AM PDT by novemberslady
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To: GIdget2004

Isn’t it really a mater of how many car trunks full of votes can be found at the last moment??


5 posted on 03/11/2014 6:32:28 AM PDT by Bringbackthedraft (2016 an election or a coronation of a Queen?)
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To: GIdget2004

This will be an interesting race to watch.

This district was one of the first in Florida to start electing Republicans back in the 60’s.

In the last decade or so, the district has become more Dem though.


6 posted on 03/11/2014 6:34:40 AM PDT by MplsSteve
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To: GIdget2004

I do hope Jolly wins, even if it is just to discourage the Rats. But this election is only for a ten month term.


7 posted on 03/11/2014 6:34:57 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: GIdget2004

Just another regime "Lieutenant".

8 posted on 03/11/2014 6:36:47 AM PDT by BerryDingle (I know how to deal with communists, I still wear their scars on my back from Hollywood-Ronald Reagan)
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To: GIdget2004

Rome is burning and Emperor Obama is out campaigning for one of his henchmen. The political elite disgust me.


9 posted on 03/11/2014 6:37:18 AM PDT by ThomasMore (Islam is the Whore of Babylon!)
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To: ChildOfThe60s

You can thank “early voting” for the Rat voter fraud. Between “early voters” who went to the polls more than once and the fact that Democrat operatives used early polling numbers for Republicans to extrapolate total need for fraudulent ballots, the Republicans didn’t stand a chance.

I still stand by my prediction of Jolly by less than 2% of the vote.


10 posted on 03/11/2014 6:37:20 AM PDT by rarestia (It's time to water the Tree of Liberty.)
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To: GIdget2004

Did Obama dispatch a team of Democrat “fixers” to FL to program those Venezuelan voting machines in advance? It worked in 2012 in minority areas where 100% or more of the votes were for Obama.


11 posted on 03/11/2014 6:37:39 AM PDT by txrefugee
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To: GIdget2004

Isn’t the Republican advantage in early voting presumptive?


12 posted on 03/11/2014 6:37:43 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... History is a process, not an event)
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To: GIdget2004

I can’t speak specifically for this district, but in Florida in 2012 Republicans cast about 10 percent more mail ballots than Democrats.


13 posted on 03/11/2014 6:43:22 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: GIdget2004
 photo ALEX_zps4b9e7078.jpg Yes I know I spelled it stink.... because she does...
14 posted on 03/11/2014 6:45:52 AM PDT by baddog 219
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To: GIdget2004

I predict ... a close race and that the libertarian will lose. (You didn’t really think I would go out on a limb did you?)


15 posted on 03/11/2014 6:46:03 AM PDT by amnestynone (Lindsey Graham is feckless, duplicitous, treacherous, double dealing backstabbing Corksucker.)
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To: ThomasMore

“Rome is burning and Emperor Obama is out campaigning for one of his henchmen.”

Obama was in southern Florida, not near this district. I don’t believe he’s done any campaigning for Sink.


16 posted on 03/11/2014 6:48:43 AM PDT by GIdget2004
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To: Redmen4ever

“I can’t speak specifically for this district, but in Florida in 2012 Republicans cast about 10 percent more mail ballots than Democrats.”

According to Politico, of the 112,000 ballots cast by mail, 42% are Republicans, 38% are Dems, and 20% are independents.

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/florida-special-election-2014-alex-sink-david-jolly-104504.html?hp=f3


17 posted on 03/11/2014 6:53:41 AM PDT by GIdget2004
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To: GIdget2004

Alex Sink is like a herpes sore that just keeps coming back.


18 posted on 03/11/2014 6:56:45 AM PDT by ChildOfThe60s ((If you can remember the 60s.....you weren't really there)
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To: GIdget2004
Sink is for ObamaCare, "It just needs parts of it fixed." Of course she never says which parts need fixing, like a good little apparatchik that blindly follows party lines.

And she is going to protect Social Security and Medicare.

Wonder why it is that Social Security and Medicare needs protecting but welfare never seems to need protecting?

Yep. I know. Dumb question. Welfare will always be there for the Dem voters and fighting to protect Social Security and Medicare is just another scare tactic to BS senior citizens that Dems really give a crap about them.

19 posted on 03/11/2014 6:56:50 AM PDT by N. Theknow (Kennedys-Can't drive, can't ski, can't fly, can't skipper a boat-But they know what's best for you.)
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To: MplsSteve

The trend may be toward the dems, but the 13th District hasn’t had a democrat as its representative since 1982.

If the republicans can’t win this district with the dem’s albatross of Obamacare they really are pathetic.

And why are ballots already being counted and posted before election day?


20 posted on 03/11/2014 7:35:32 AM PDT by A'elian' nation ("Political Correctness does not legislate tolerance; it only organizes hatred." Jacques Barzun)
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To: SoFloFreeper

$15 million spent campaigning for this special election. Tampa Bay area has been bombarded with campaign ads for the election today, and the office is up for grabs again in November. Eeesh.


21 posted on 03/11/2014 7:43:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
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To: GIdget2004

All you need is the precinct captains to win


22 posted on 03/11/2014 7:44:22 AM PDT by AppyPappy
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To: A'elian' nation

“And why are ballots already being counted and posted before election day?”

They aren’t counting or reporting the votes - they are counting the number of mail ballots returned, and who returned them (Repubs, Dems, or Indeps). I agree, though, that even sharing that information is probably too much.


23 posted on 03/11/2014 8:16:42 AM PDT by GIdget2004
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To: SoFloFreeper; All

Jolly wins today..despite the Libertarian getting as much as 5% of the vote...AND the Dems spending millions. They won’t put 10 cents into this race in November...the House is gone..they’ll put it all into the Senate races, and anything left over will go to Abortion Barbie in Texas..


24 posted on 03/11/2014 8:35:23 AM PDT by ken5050 (I fear a world run by adults who were never spanked as kids and got trophies just for participating)
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To: GIdget2004
This article was less than useless.

Boldly, a prediction is promised in the headline. In the body, he tells us to flip a coin.

Freakin' loser.

25 posted on 03/11/2014 8:38:04 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Early 2009 to 7/21/2013 - RIP my little girl Cathy. You were the best cat ever. You will be missed.)
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To: ChildOfThe60s

Romney should have slaughtered Obama in Florida....but....he pulled a “McCain” treating Obama like Obama was a good man...he wasn’t and isn’t...either!!! IMHO...Obama is more akin to Satan!!! Hoping Jolly sinks Sink this evening!!!


26 posted on 03/11/2014 8:38:20 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX ( My only objective is to defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!.)
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To: Lazamataz

It’s the Tampa Trib. They so want Sink to win, while afraid she won’t, that they just can’t bring themselves to commit to a prediction.

If the Trib hasn’t changed since I was in FL, this is an indication they are pretty sure Sink isn’t going to win.


27 posted on 03/11/2014 8:51:39 AM PDT by ChildOfThe60s ((If you can remember the 60s.....you weren't really there)
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To: ChildOfThe60s

Oops. Disregard my opinion (just this one time of course).

I was thinking this was Tampabayonline, which if memory serves, is run by the Trib.


28 posted on 03/11/2014 8:53:52 AM PDT by ChildOfThe60s ((If you can remember the 60s.....you weren't really there)
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To: GIdget2004

Thanks GIdget2004. If we presume this district is similar to the state, then we’re seeing a similar Republican advantage in the mail ballots in this special election as we saw in the state in 2012. The only conclusion to draw from this is that the election might be close. On the other hand, if Jolly is better among Democrats and independents (because of Obamacare), maybe it’s not close. But, we can’t presume this to be the case. Let’s just say the outcome is not predictable.


29 posted on 03/11/2014 9:10:52 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: GIdget2004

bump


30 posted on 03/11/2014 10:29:03 AM PDT by clintonh8r (Don't twerk me, Broi)
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To: baddog 219
Alex Stink: I'll keep running until I'm elected to something.
31 posted on 03/11/2014 11:06:33 AM PDT by clintonh8r (Don't twerk me, Broi)
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To: GIdget2004

bttt


32 posted on 03/11/2014 2:10:12 PM PDT by novemberslady
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To: GIdget2004

4:53 p.m. - Election Day turnout is now at 8.8%; overall turnout is 36.3%.

http://www.saintpetersblog.com/live-blogging-election-day-in-cd-13


33 posted on 03/11/2014 2:21:20 PM PDT by deport
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To: GIdget2004

Considering Jolly is a tea party type candidate, I fully expect the GOPe to torpedo him so they can run their Rino candidate in Nov....


34 posted on 03/11/2014 2:21:48 PM PDT by Popman ("Resistance to Tyrants is Obedience to God" - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: deport

Disgraceful.


35 posted on 03/11/2014 3:45:30 PM PDT by clintonh8r (Don't twerk me, Broi)
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To: GIdget2004

Any results yet?


36 posted on 03/11/2014 4:42:48 PM PDT by clintonh8r (Don't twerk me, Broi)
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