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David Jolly's victory spells trouble for Democrats nationwide
The Tampa BAY Times ^ | March 11 | ADAM SMITH

Posted on 03/12/2014 5:55:05 AM PDT by Hojczyk

If I'm a Democratic House member in any competitive district in America or a Democratic incumbent senator up for re-election this year in a moderate-to-conservative state like North Carolina, Arkansas, Colorado, Alaska or Louisiana, I'm waking up more than a little anxious about what happened in Pinellas County on Tuesday.

In Alex Sink, Democrats had a better-funded, well-known nominee who ran a strong campaign against a little-known, second- or third-tier Republican who ran an often wobbly race in a district Barack Obama won twice. Outside Republican groups — much more so than the under-funded Jolly campaign — hung the Affordable Care Act and President Obama on Sink.

It worked. A special election always promised to be tough for Democrats. Given the president's approval ratings, November is likely to be challenging, too, but if Sink opts to run again she at least could be assured a stronger Democratic turnout.

On the other hand, Roll Call has a statistic likely to give the former banking executive pause about taking on Jolly a second time: So far this century, 85 percent of congressional special-election winners win at least two subsequent general elections.

Two invisible political players stand out in this race: Obama and Gov. Rick Scott. Both sides wanted them as far away from Pinellas County as possible.

In their stead, Bill Clinton starred in robocalls for Sink, and Jeb Bush starred in TV ads and mailers for Jolly. Maybe that's yet another sign that Clinton and Bush remain the most formidable names in politics.


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Government; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2014midterms; fl2014; jolly; sink

1 posted on 03/12/2014 5:55:05 AM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: Hojczyk

Let’s hope. Get out the vote is the primary function of elections. We really didn’t win by a ton. Thank God that the Democrats were so lazy yesterday.


2 posted on 03/12/2014 5:57:34 AM PDT by napscoordinator ( Santorum-Bachmann 2016 for the future of the country!)
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To: Hojczyk

It must be really bad... The paper is a democrat rag....


3 posted on 03/12/2014 5:57:54 AM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: Hojczyk
"Bill Clinton starred in robocalls for Sink"

How appropriate.

4 posted on 03/12/2014 6:00:37 AM PDT by Paladin2
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To: napscoordinator

I don’t think Bush had much to do with Jolly’s win - mostly it was a rejection of obamacare, and the democrats didn’t have an opportunity to “count the votes” ...


5 posted on 03/12/2014 6:01:34 AM PDT by Ken522
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To: Hojczyk

Hopefully,seniors will vote Republican in droves nationwide.


6 posted on 03/12/2014 6:03:17 AM PDT by Dr. Ursus
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To: Hojczyk

The question that every Democrat House or Senate should be forced to openly answer in front of the public and media....”Did you, or did you not vote for Obamacare in 2010?”. Case closed!!!!


7 posted on 03/12/2014 6:03:18 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX ( My only objective is to defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!.)
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To: Hojczyk
Yeah, that's my take, in spite of what Debbie "Baghdad Bob" Wasserman Schultz is claiming.

It's a district that's been trending blue, so a loss wouldn't have been a loss for the Republicans, but a loss is very definitely a loss for the Democrats.

Bodes well for Republican chances in November -- IF they can get out of their circular firing squad. IF they retake the Senate, Obama is pretty much a lame duck, like Bush 43 was his last 2 years.

8 posted on 03/12/2014 6:03:57 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: Hojczyk

Obamacare will be in 2014 for Democrats what Watergate was in 1974 for Republicans. The Democrats not only passed a bad law that seriously disrupted heath care, but showed pompous arrogance when they refused to allow any modifications or changes. The American people usually do not reward bad policy and bad behavior.


9 posted on 03/12/2014 6:05:08 AM PDT by allendale
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To: Ken522

I also hear Jolly was outspent 3-1, that’s considerable.


10 posted on 03/12/2014 6:10:10 AM PDT by V_TWIN
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To: napscoordinator
True this was not a runaway victory, but there was a Libertarian on the ballot who siphoned off 5% of the Republican vote. Not sure if the Libertarian was put up by the DNC or not, but that certainly impacted the outcome.
11 posted on 03/12/2014 6:12:15 AM PDT by Obadiah (I Like Ted.)
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To: Hojczyk

“”Outside Republican groups — much more so than the under-funded Jolly campaign — hung the Affordable Care Act and President Obama on Sink.””


I was a volunteer with one of those NON-Republican groups who made thousands of phone calls to voters in this district. We found that Republicans, Independents, and even Democrats strongly disapproved Obamacare.

It is not correct for the Tampa Bay Times to call these Outside Republican groups. These groups are NON-Republican conservative groups.


12 posted on 03/12/2014 6:16:14 AM PDT by Presbyterian Reporter
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To: Hojczyk
It must be really bad... The paper is a democrat rag....

It is. A Libertarian stalking horse drained away nearly 5% of the vote, and Jolly STILL won. Plus they know the Dems cheated their a*s off and still came up short.


13 posted on 03/12/2014 6:20:33 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: allendale

“The Democrats not only passed a bad law that seriously disrupted heath care, but showed pompous arrogance when they refused to allow any modifications or changes. The American people usually do not reward bad policy and bad behavior.”

The Dems know they simply need to reduce the impact on 50.1% of likely voters to nullify any reaction. The fact that Obama was re-elected was a screaming wake-up call for Republicans that they really needed to look at how they reached out to voters, and I hope they learned something. They should be able to win on issues, and can’t sit back and hope the Dem media shows them in an honest light.


14 posted on 03/12/2014 6:21:10 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: Sooth2222

a loss is very definitely a loss for the Democrats

**********
As Biden would say, it’s a big F’n deal!


15 posted on 03/12/2014 6:25:02 AM PDT by Starboard
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To: Ken522

“and the democrats didn’t have an opportunity to “count the votes” ?
Reference Colonel Allen West’s loss as well as Al Frankens win in Minnesota!


16 posted on 03/12/2014 6:25:52 AM PDT by Joe Boucher ((FUBO) obammy lied and lied and lied)
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To: Hojczyk

FoxNews reports this morning that ‘even some Republican consultants were worried that Jolly could not pull out a win, because he was behind in the polls.’

Additionally, the Republican consultants were worried that Obamacare might not be the issue mid-term candidates should run against.

==

[The Republicans NEED to get a new set of consultants. These guys they have been paying in recent years aren’t worth crap.]

==


17 posted on 03/12/2014 6:33:50 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: allendale
Republicans don't have the reservoir of low-info voters to fall back on like the Dems. The Demonrats will be counting on them to save the day, along with trusty vote fraud.
18 posted on 03/12/2014 6:33:50 AM PDT by luvbach1 (We are finished)
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To: napscoordinator

November will be massive voter fraud by RATs. They’re out digging up the dead and illegals 24/7, wanna bet?


19 posted on 03/12/2014 6:47:04 AM PDT by ExTexasRedhead
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To: kearnyirish2

That the GOPe has opted for open warfare against the conservative wing of their base suggests to me that the wake-up call is being ignored.

I don’t think this November is going to be anywhere near as rosy for the Republicans as they expect.


20 posted on 03/12/2014 6:50:43 AM PDT by Arm_Bears (Shoot cops that shoot dogs.)
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To: Ken522
I don’t think Bush had much to do with Jolly’s win - mostly it was a rejection of obamacare, and the democrats didn’t have an opportunity to “count the votes” ...

We watch mostly Tampa TV stations here in Central Florida and this race featured a LOT of ads around the clock. Only remember seeing Jeb Bush a couple of times.

Sink's ads tried to portray Jolly as a Washington Insider Lobbyist who was only for big business and against the "little man and seniors." Typical Demonrat scare tactics aimed at LIV and seniors.

Sink, "I have a history of bringing Democrats and Republicans together and I'll do the same in Washington to protect social security and medicare." "Jolly wants to privatize social security using risky investments and cut medicare."

Jolly did a smart counter ad appearinug with his Mom and another older relative to assure seniors that was not the case. And hammered home that Obamacare, which Sink wanted to keep and "fix" the parts of it that weren't working, had raided medicare of $716 billion dollars.

Late in the campaign, which polls showed Sink being up by almost double digits, Sink's ads got more and more desperate as she had been cast as being the representative of Pelosi and Obama rather than a representative of the people of the 13th District. Her own ads had professed support for Obamacare as if it just needed a little tweaking to make its wonderful awesomeness come to fruition through her bipartisan experience of bringing folks together through "common sense."

Note: this "common sense" phrase was also used by Charlie Crist in some of his interviews espousing his views for the good of all things Democrat Governor's campaign.

Be interesting to see if this "common sense" phrase is the latest DemonRat, focus-group-tested talking point.

21 posted on 03/12/2014 6:51:35 AM PDT by N. Theknow (Kennedys-Can't drive, can't ski, can't fly, can't skipper a boat-But they know what's best for you.)
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To: Hojczyk

I’ve said this before — You can’t just beat on Obamacare and propose nothing.

Newt Gingrich had the right formula when he united the Republicans around the CONTRACT WITH AMERICA.

The GOP has to UNITE around a plan to replace Obamacare.

And NO, simply saying we will repeal it and go back to where things were before won’t appeal. People were not exactly happy with the way things were before Obamacare.


22 posted on 03/12/2014 6:54:14 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: Hojczyk

“Obama at this point looks like a drag for Democrats in November, just as he consistently has been for Sink.”

Obama, at this point, is a drag for America and maybe FINALLY Americans are GETTING THE POINT!!!


23 posted on 03/12/2014 6:55:21 AM PDT by ZULU (Si vis pacem, para bellum)
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To: Arm_Bears
That the GOPe has opted for open warfare against the conservative wing of their base suggests to me that the wake-up call is being ignored.

That the GOPe would rather split the vote and LOSE than put up an actual conservative suggests to me that they don't really want to win at all. They would rather have dems in office than conservatives.

24 posted on 03/12/2014 6:55:49 AM PDT by SCalGal (Friends don't let friends donate to H$U$, A$PCA, or PETA.)
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To: V_TWIN

This sounds identical to the two state elections in Colorado.
Tons of DNC money flowed into the state and they still lost.
2014 could be really big.


25 posted on 03/12/2014 7:00:15 AM PDT by Zathras
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To: Arm_Bears

“That the GOPe has opted for open warfare against the conservative wing of their base suggests to me that the wake-up call is being ignored. I don’t think this November is going to be anywhere near as rosy for the Republicans as they expect.”

I agree; they can’t publicly hold any conservative positions without being trashed in the media, and they can’t motivate their base without those positions. After 2012, I can’t believe any Republicans see anything as “rosy”; Obama’s win against McCain was understandable as he had little to offer, but the re-election (after four horrible years economically) indicated the Republicans might as well close up shop.


26 posted on 03/12/2014 7:02:47 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: Hojczyk

It must be really bad... The paper is a democrat rag...............................NOTE!!

“Maybe that’s yet another sign that Clinton and Bush remain the most formidable names in politics.” Read between the lines, its all there.


27 posted on 03/12/2014 7:08:35 AM PDT by Bringbackthedraft (2016 an election or a coronation of a Queen?)
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To: Paladin2
"Bill Clinton starred in robocalls for Sink" How appropriate.

The sentence is not complete. Let me help...
Bill Clinton starred in robocalls for Sink stains.

28 posted on 03/12/2014 7:26:03 AM PDT by VRWCarea51
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To: All
Republican strategists need to note the significant details.

Sink is a prototypical "play-by-the-Obama-rules" Dummycrat---a lock-stepping pro-infanticide, pro-sodomy, pro-welfare state, O/Care fixer progressive/liberal.

Enough is enough. The perverted Obama/Dummycrat agenda is dead and buried.

29 posted on 03/12/2014 7:47:15 AM PDT by Liz
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To: TomGuy

No kidding...the “amnesty-and-kill-the-Tea-Party” crowd is about as far removed from reality as you can get. Whenever I see Karl Rove or one of the camp followers from the Romney campaign, offering their own version of a triangulation strategy, I literally scream at the TV: “how many elections have you won lately?” Don’t get an answer, but it makes me feel better for a few seconds.

The current class of GOP consultants are (for the most part) cut from the same “inside the beltway” cloth as the GOPe. More concerned about moving in the right social circles (and keeping their cushy consulting jobs) than winning elections.

If the GOP had a brain (jury’s still out on that one), they would be grooming a new consultant class among the Tea Party activists who retook the House in 2010, and have carried the day for more Republicans than I can count. Sure, there have been some clunkers, but most Tea Party groups are smart, engaged and they know how to organize. Heck, if the GOP would look close enough, they might even find some sharp IT/data analysis/messaging folks who could erase the Democrats advantages in those areas.


30 posted on 03/12/2014 8:11:17 AM PDT by ExNewsExSpook
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To: V_TWIN
I also hear Jolly was outspent 3-1, that’s considerable.

I would say at least 3-1. I spent last week in Pinellas County. Every time I had the TV on there were endless ads by Sink on every channel. I don't remember seeing an ad by Jolly.

Some of the ads were vicious, some laughable. There was an ad for Sink that accused Jolly of wanting Pinellas and FL to flood due to the rising waters caused by man-made climate change. It showed a graphic of the various coastlines of FL disappearing dues to rapidly rising water. I had to laugh at that one.

31 posted on 03/12/2014 8:48:35 AM PDT by sand88 (We can never legislate our way back to Liberty)
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To: Liz
The perverted Obama/Dummycrat agenda is dead and buried.

Huh? The evil left's agenda is very far from dead and further from buried.

Remember, Obamacare and Dodd Frank is the law of the land. Don't you think the GOPe will roll that back?

Remember, 100's of thousands of Marxist, sadistic bureaucrats infest the EPA and other agencies. Do you think panty wearing McConnell or crybaby Boehner will roll that back if they are present under a Conservative President?

The left dominates most of our institutions.

True restoration of our Republic as Founded will take a concerted effort at the State level via the Article V process to roll-back the evil Federal leviathan.

The reality is that even the Article V process is a long shot.

32 posted on 03/12/2014 8:56:03 AM PDT by sand88 (We can never legislate our way back to Liberty)
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To: sand88
I said the perverted Obama/Dummycrat agenda is dead and buried-----as a political issue. Of course the damage already done is formidable.

Now, there are more ways than one to finish off these lib/progs.

Much as I hate to admit it---Obama has changed the political spectrum. We have to think of newer ways to remove the lib/prog pestilence from the face of the earth.

33 posted on 03/12/2014 9:09:38 AM PDT by Liz
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