Posted on 03/14/2014 7:20:53 AM PDT by Errant
When we devalue our dollar the folks who buy our Treasuries get a guaranteed loss. Until recently safety was a good trade-off... seems that perception has changed.
a)if the rates climb, the Fed will step in to buy the bonds, pushing rates down.
b)If the rates climb, the value of the bonds will fall and the foreigners will lose too much, which will also moderate the sell-off.
c) The increase in dollar reserves will also tend to drive down interest rates on dollars.
What will happen is that the dollar will fall more relative to the Euro, Yen and Yuan: look for gas prices and other commodity prices denominated in dollars to go up, as foreigners look to recoup their FX losses from the Fed's inflationary policies.
And into what? .....................
Rice...................................
Hold on to your butts.
Your response makes no sense. I said there would be significant implications for our own interest rates. You said “wrong” but then acknowledge twice that rates could climb. Very confusing. If you are confident that rates will fall, then you should put your money on it (go short).
I didn't say they would fall, just that they would not rise (at least not anytime soon).
A smart bond trader could probably make some money on intraday futures trades, but that's about it. I just don't think the Fed will allow the market to move very much at all.
If the sell off continues, you could make money on FX, I would think, because some of the growing dollar reserves would need to be rolled over into local currencies.
I had not idea what your reply would be, but that made me laugh. Not a bad idea either, but the government(s) will eventually grab that too if SHTF. For the greater good, dontcha know.
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