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New doomsday poll: 99.9% risk of 2014 crash
Market Watch ^ | March 15, 2014 | by PAUL B. FARRELL

Posted on 03/15/2014 2:47:50 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer

Commentary: Black-swan crisis warning for now through mid-April.

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. — Global risks are accelerating. This is our fourth major poll update of industry leaders: A critical review of their warnings from early last year when we first predicted a 87% risk of a crash: Bernanke’s Fed saw an “unsustainable bubble” ... Gross: “credit supernova” ... Gundlach: “kaboom ahead” ... Ellis: “Don’t own bonds” ... Shilling: “shocker” ... Roubini: “Prepare for perfect storm” ... Shiller: “Irrational exuberance is back” ... Schiff: “Doubling down” on “doomsday” prediction ... InvestmentNews’ warning 90,000 advisers: “tick, tick ... boom!”

(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bonds; crash; investment; market; marketcrash; stockmarket; stocks
Definition of 'Black Swan'

An event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict. This term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor and former Wall Street trader.

1 posted on 03/15/2014 2:47:50 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

I’m already out of the market and into cash. Wish I could be in gold / silver but my 401K has limited options.


2 posted on 03/15/2014 2:55:01 PM PDT by taxcontrol
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Swan, swan, hummingbird, we are all free now...

oops, sorry, got carried away.


3 posted on 03/15/2014 2:55:20 PM PDT by VRW Conspirator ( 2+2 = V)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
Definition of Paul Farrell (MW writer) = dweeb.
He seems to be paid by the word and tends to write a lot of BS.
4 posted on 03/15/2014 2:57:14 PM PDT by Sarajevo (Two cannibals are eating a clown. One says to the other: "Does this taste funny to you?")
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

for later


5 posted on 03/15/2014 3:00:55 PM PDT by F15Eagle (1Jn4:15;5:4-5,11-13;Mt27:50-54;Mk15:33-34;Jn3:17-18,6:69,11:25,14:6,20:31;Ro10:8-11;1Tm2:5-6;Ti3:4-7)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Nothing on earth goes up forever, so one of these days, these forecasts will be right. Of course, it will be too late to do anything about it then, so planting a vegetable garden for your family is always a good thing to do in spring.


6 posted on 03/15/2014 3:07:05 PM PDT by txrefugee
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To: taxcontrol
I’m already out of the market and into cash.

Problem is (for me)... my "cash" option is bonds.

7 posted on 03/15/2014 3:07:27 PM PDT by grobdriver (Where is Wilson Blair when you need him?)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Been reading this silliness for 20 years or more.

I guess if they say it long enough and it happens they get to say ... see, I told you so.


8 posted on 03/15/2014 3:35:47 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: Sarajevo

The title sounds like an Ivory soap commercial.


9 posted on 03/15/2014 3:53:12 PM PDT by Mark (Obama Care is now DEMOCRAT CARE)
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To: grobdriver

Yeah man, that really sucks.


10 posted on 03/15/2014 4:03:41 PM PDT by taxcontrol
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To: grobdriver

Mine too. I don’t believe ANY 401K has a true cash option. They all have bonds. While the safest and most conservative option, they are bonds. If the bond market tanks, then that options sucks too.


11 posted on 03/15/2014 4:11:37 PM PDT by RacerXSpeedRacer (We must remove the "old guard" RINO's.)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

No such thing as a 99.9% risk.


12 posted on 03/15/2014 4:25:31 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: RacerXSpeedRacer

Yes and “know”. If your cash was in bonds when the market crashes, you convert them to the stock which now costs less. Most market crashes will reward this type buying.


13 posted on 03/15/2014 4:55:52 PM PDT by Jumper
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Rubbish, If anyone believed that 99.9% number they would load up on puts which expire at the end of the year


14 posted on 03/15/2014 4:59:42 PM PDT by BRL
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To: taxcontrol

I’m already out of the market and into cash. Wish I could be in gold / silver but my 401K has limited options.”

Question of the day is where is a safe place for cash? Banks/S&L/Credit Union not feeling to good about them either


15 posted on 03/15/2014 5:03:35 PM PDT by blueyon (The U. S. Constitution - read it and weep)
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To: blueyon

I can hold it for you.


16 posted on 03/15/2014 5:12:26 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Mark
It sure does.
MarketWatch used to be one of the premier sites for information on stocks and the business world. The also had a large following because we could blog with like-minded investors. Sometime in 2010, they went off a cliff and started posting sensationalist headlines and very poorly researched and written articles. When a lot of us complained about the new status quo, we were subsequently banned. Many migrated over to Seeking Alpha.
17 posted on 03/15/2014 5:21:31 PM PDT by Sarajevo (Two cannibals are eating a clown. One says to the other: "Does this taste funny to you?")
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To: RacerXSpeedRacer
Which is why Ellis: “Don’t own bonds” caught my eye.
18 posted on 03/15/2014 5:22:51 PM PDT by grobdriver (Where is Wilson Blair when you need him?)
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To: taxcontrol

both gold and silver are “on sale”. I wish I would have dumped my few gold dollars when it was at $1800

heard a report that said copper was down and that copper was used as an indicator on the health of the world economy.

So......who knows. But a correction is due.


19 posted on 03/15/2014 5:40:02 PM PDT by 12th_Monkey (One man one vote is a big fail, when the "one" man is an idiot.)
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To: RIghtwardHo

You need to do your homework. The financial conditions today are much worse than at any time in the past 20 years. It is not “silliness.” Wake up and smell the coffee.


20 posted on 03/15/2014 6:10:45 PM PDT by SVTCobra03 (You can never have enough friends, horsepower or ammunition.)
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To: taxcontrol

Your 401k, mine, everyone else’s will soon be worthless anyway. It is based on “cash” and the dollar won’t be worth much soon.


21 posted on 03/15/2014 6:49:32 PM PDT by Ghost of SVR4 (So many are so hopelessly dependent on the government that they will fight to protect it.)
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To: Ghost of SVR4

Not everyone!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6F57HIxQuMo


22 posted on 03/15/2014 7:00:03 PM PDT by TsonicTsunami08
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To: SVTCobra03
Wake up and smell the coffee.

Agreed ... we're not in some economic cycle .. we're in totally uncharted waters where the Fed is having to print $85 billion every month just to keep the economy on life support.

The situation today is totally unprecedented in American history.

23 posted on 03/15/2014 10:08:38 PM PDT by The Duke ("Forgiveness is between them and God, it's my job to arrange the meeting.")
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