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Wrong Again
Weekly Standard ^ | March 16, 2014 | Andrew Ferguson

Posted on 03/16/2014 7:05:07 PM PDT by Kaslin

The economists’ confession

It's hard to find nice things to say about economists. Their detachment from the real world of human activity is matched only by their enormous influence over it, and by their unearned assumption that this arrangement is well deserved. That all changed last month, however. Now we can say something nice about at least some of the economists at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and it is this: They may not be very good at what they do, but they’re not afraid to admit it.

Last month they released a report, “OECD Forecasts During & After the Financial Crisis: A Post-Mortem.” It is not beach reading, unless you’re the sort of person who works for the OECD or The Weekly Standard. The report’s watery tone and obscure nomenclature are common to the literature of professional economists—and are indispensable when it comes time to hide an unflattering conclusion from the prying eyes of laymen. The unflattering conclusion here, though, is straightforward, if understated. The OECD economists looked at their own work forecasting the direction of the world economy over the last several years and admitted: “GDP growth was overestimated on average across 2007-12, reflecting not only errors at the height of the financial crisis but also errors in the subsequent recovery.”

The passive voice in the first clause of that sentence is squirmy; a flat assertion in the first person -plural would be more seemly and more accurate. But give them credit for the rest of the sentence. How big were the errors? Pretty big.

(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial
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1 posted on 03/16/2014 7:05:07 PM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

Forecasting — or “Hope & change”?..............


2 posted on 03/16/2014 7:23:48 PM PDT by 4Liberty (Optimal institutions - optimal economy.)
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To: Kaslin

Like everyone else who works in the world of words, icons, and symbols, economists decided “put down the melancholy burden of sanity” and jump on the Obama Love Train to the Land of Hope And Change back in 2008.

I guess some of them are returning to Realville once again,


3 posted on 03/16/2014 7:56:38 PM PDT by Steely Tom (How do you feel about robbing Peter's robot?)
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To: Kaslin
I believe most economists adhere to the PFA theory of economics--the Plucked From Air theory.

vaudine

4 posted on 03/16/2014 8:21:13 PM PDT by vaudine
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To: Kaslin

That is unexpected.


5 posted on 03/16/2014 11:36:43 PM PDT by Pollster1 ("Shall not be infringed" is unambiguous.)
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