Skip to comments.4 reasons why Crimea is not Abkhazia
Posted on 03/16/2014 7:38:45 PM PDT by MarMema
Ukraines acting president, Oleksander Turchynov, has accused Russian-supported forces in Crimea of working on scenarios which are fully analogous with Abkhazia. The notion that the model of Abkhazia from the 2008 Russia-Georgia war fits Russias moves in Crimea is a theme adopted by many media pundits, as well.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
1. Because I can pronounce Crimea!
The precedent was really set in Kosovo where Clinton backed the breaking off a piece of Serbia. The Russians have been waiting for a chance to do the same type of thing.
By the way, the same "neo-conservative" A-holes who are all up in arms over the Crimea secession today were the loudest cheerleaders for Clinton back in the 1990s when it came to bombing Serbia on behalf of the Kosovo separatists.
Like him or not, Putin is no fool. He knows exactly what these people are up to.
I look forward to the day when, and it will come when Russia gets carved up like a turkey.
Especially the doofus on the right.
I prefer Turkey to get carved up like a turkey, then we get Constantinople back.
People who don’t know history see Russia from 1990 on as a new improved Russia, whereas it is the same imperialist, expansionist Russia of the pass 1,000 years.
This was more than two weeks ago. Western Kremlinologists misread Russia.
We’re now way past the point of an alternative solution. Russia is going to formally absorb Crimea and then focus on destabilizing and subverting Kiev - without leaving visible fingerprints on the entire operation.
Moscow does not need to invade eastern Ukraine. It can alternate blandishments with pressure to try to make its opponent fall. Putin is not fighting a 19th Century war; he is waging a sophisticated campaign to put Ukraine in its place.
Gobbling up Crimea was just the first phase and while Moscow’s moves do seem inchoate, there is a strategy behind them that the Kremlin has masterminded. Above all, the Russian strongman is a student of Clausewitz.
Get used to the idea that and all of your descendants prior to the day of judgment will die of old age before that ever happens.
It is on my bucket list though..
It may be part of why Putin does not trust us, in fact.
Luv Comrade Putin that much?
How many times have you been to Russia?
Love Comrade Obama more?
Next thing you know and these Putin propagandists and apologists here, useful idiots, I figure, rather than paid lackeys, will be explaining away Gulag.
Russia is a nation with a history of cruelty and beauty. People try to read it like a Western country - it isn’t one. It has more in common with Constantinople than with Rome. Our liberal understanding of the world has always registered a limited effect on Russia.
20 years and China has most of Siberia.
It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.
Now that would be interesting. I hope I am alive to see this one.
Hating Zero does not require kissing Putins ass.
You likely won’t be around to see it, should that ever happen.
“Rus” is as much a racial identity, as it is national one.
“Above all, the Russian strongman is a student of Clausewitz.”
Not Clausewitz, but Machiavelli...
They might have deemed Machiavelli politically-incorrect in American schools, but it is still taught in many places.
The more malevolent side of Putin comes from a man named Aleksandr Dugin. A neo-Eurasian who detests the west and has, they say, had considerable influence on Putin.
Just stand back and look at a map of Eastern Europe.
Draw out the route that Hitler used to attack Russia.
Then start with Moscow and draw the route in reverse, using the same strategy...
I will give you a hint that the Ukraine borders with Poland.
Then sit down in a quiet place and put yourself in a Russians shoes looking though the history glass, the Olympic opening and closing ceremonies and think as they think, and as Putin thinks.
The end game should not be too hard to figure out. And based on the history of the past coupled with the declining importance of the US and it's current geopolitical ambitions and it's ignorant populace and policy, as well as it's huge and growing debt burden, you can see why he thinks it's doable and can be done conventionally, without American intervention which is the only power that could defeat him.
Certainly the Russians don’t think they could just march into Poland without sustaining a massive loss of life. Poles will fight them tooth and nail, and this isn’t 1939, they are well equipped and will be highly motivated.
You got it. And the issue is not merely Crimea, as many tend to think offering rational explanation based on history or propaganda, that’s a small bite for Russia, the bear has a bigger appetite that has never been fully satisfied in his 1,000 year history. There’ll be next places.
Yes, and jolly few folks in the US even know he exists, let alone his views and influence.
Watch for the traffic stops there, though. They regularly check for DUI. That's from direct personal experience and it wasn't like Midnight Express for me since I'm a teetotaler. Suffice it to say it's an interesting town, most I encountered spoke English and when they found out I was from Texas, everyone (without exception) asked me about the Dallas Cowboys or had something to say. This is when Tom Landry still coached the team to give you an idea of how long ago it was.
“Next thing you know,,,,,,will be explaining away Gulag.”
Exactly, then along will come the bunch that will explain to us how the Germans were actually liberating Ukraine from the Soviets. Then someone even will suggest we attack the Russians to back them down militarily. These threads do follow a pattern.
I find it difficult to understand the whole situation
Yanukovych may have been corrupt - but he wasn’t the first Ukrainian politician to be so. Also, the EU itself declared his election in 2010 to be relatively fair, open and legitimate.
So the protestors in Kiev have toppled it - but replaced with who and what? John Kerry calls them “pro democracy protestors.” Really? So who are they?
Also, a 1994 International Treaty allowed Russia access to the Crimea and permission to keep 25,000 troops there. So how can this be considered an “invasion” when they have been there 20 years already?
Finally, I think declaring Ukraine could enter NATO was ridiculous - and very provocative.
Again, Putin is not saint, but I am finding it hard to get worked up over what he is doing.
Lots of posters here still think it is 1939 though.
Kiev has no choice other than to look West.
Georgia has been trying to get into NATO for many years and we have been helping them, but they are still waiting..
"Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and other members of the interim government have reached out to figures including Akhmetov and Firtash, assuring them that their businesses will not be targeted. Kiev has even appointed key oligarchs such as Igor Kolomoisky, a banking and industrial magnate, and industrialist Sergei Taruta as governors in the eastern regions of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk, respectively."
I think the above is a fairly good view.
As it was in Tbilisi, it will be in Kiev, minus NATO.
What is going on the Ukraine is much more complicated than a simple “If this, then this” type of statement.
Remember, the same Soros Cabal-financed Open Society NGO’s that destabilized Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt International Renaissance Foundation, using the same playbook that has worked before, have been active in Ukraine for about two years now.
Add in a bad, mismanaged economy full of local and national corruption, and you have the recipe for certain people to make wheelbarrows full of money playing the put spreads.
You couldn’t be more wrong. Historically, Russia has never shown an interest in invading Europe. But they are deeply worried that Europe will invade them, as did Fredrich the Great, Napoleon, The British in Crimea in the 1850s, and the allies in WWI, and WWII. That single fear explains every move they make, and the west simply ignores it or actually feeds the fear.
After WWII they viewed eastern Europe as their safety barrier so that nobody could repeat the Nazi invasion again. After 20 million dead, They gave the world the finger and held eastern Europe as a giant prison buffer zone.
When the wall came down, sane leadership in the west could have taken us to a place much different than today. But we decided expanding NATO right up to the Russian border would be more fun.
Now we are seeing how Russia acts when it feels a threat right on its border. Its almost a forgone conclusion that an EU Ukraine would invite in NATO forces, and that the west will begin to try to destabilize Moscow as it did Kiev.
As Putin said, we really are watching a “monkey with a hand grenade”.
Once they have the political situation turning in their favor it won;t be hard to install a Kremlin friendly government.
It's how Putin will keep it conventional and nobody will stop him, just as nobody stopped Hitler until Japan attacked Pearl Harbor...Then it was quite a while before the armaments and planes needed could be manufactured and the men trained to confront him, (Now in France).
If Hitler had not lost his marbles and delayed attacking on two fronts until be was ready, we would be talking a different scenario...from WWII But he assumed that the British would not be very effective if he kept them suppressed and he failed to see the US entering the fray.
The attack on pearl changed all that, but Hitler had already committed and played out a bad hand.
Putin knows all this, so the game is already set. I am sure his occupation of Poland is already in process. He will use their friendliness with the US as a weapon in Poland's politics, just as he has used it in the Ukraine and in Georgia.
With most of the college graduates for over two decades having been brainwashed into thinking that the US is a global problem and it's policies have damaged the peaceful world, it will be a given that the US will not get into the fray as the US media takes their side, just as they took the German’s side in WWII. They will be attacking Bush for at least another decade.
So it's logically a doable task and it's been underway for years..and you can now see the Russian influence working here as well through the media and through the opinions of out educated elite.
The new regime is reliant on the same corrupt figures as Yanukovych did. Its not a good sign. That Kiev is serious about economic and democratic reform.
To people in Eastern Ukraine, its a different gang of thieves parachuting into office to benefit themselves. And that only compounds its legitimacy crisis. I’m not sure Western backing of Kiev can cure it since the West is perceived to be openly anti-Russian and not a neutral party to a complex domestic dispute.
Its possible the Crimean political earthquake will spread to restive regions of the country. And Kiev can’t use force to assert its authority over them in order not to provoke Russian intervention.
What’s a likely denounement is the Ukrainian state in its current form can’t work. The best thing we could hope for is an outcome akin to the Velvet Divorce between the Czech and Slovak units of what was then Czechoslovakia. If not, it could either lead to an enfeebled Ukrainian state or a bloody outcome.
As far as we know, this crisis is from over.
Their defense rests on us because they all have no defense capability to mention, and again, just as history shows us, the US will be very slow to react and now I believe will not react unless the UN gets on it's hands and knees and begs..
This will look like paint drying, so nobody will get too worked up. Americans as a rule, don't, unless they are attacked. And that's what Putin knows and what he knows is the truth.
“and the allies in WWI, and WWII”
poor wording,, but was referring to the German based Euro alliances arrayed against them. Not of course, to the “Allies” who in both wars were on Russia’s side.
Wow. I am so on the fence. On the one hand I completely agree with you. On the other I think their actions in Abkhazia were criminal.
I see their fear from Ziggy and his chessboard and Nato. But there is little doubt that Putin has been a terrorist when it comes to energy.
Such a sorry mess. How much I miss George Bush!!! More now than for a long time lately. All the work he did to build trust has been tossed in the trash by the idiot we have now "leading" us.
All of this “Putin will invade Poland!’ stuff is just pure hysteria, imho.
What economic or strategic advantage is there for Russia? I said Russia, NOT the Soviet Union. This isn’t 1939.
There are many factors at play here, this isn’t as simple as moving pieces on a Chess board.