Posted on 03/16/2014 7:38:45 PM PDT by MarMema
Ukraine’s acting president, Oleksander Turchynov, has accused Russian-supported forces in Crimea of “working on scenarios which are fully analogous with Abkhazia.” The notion that the “model” of Abkhazia from the 2008 Russia-Georgia war fits Russia’s moves in Crimea is a theme adopted by many media pundits, as well.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
The Importance of Ukraine's Oligarchs
"Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and other members of the interim government have reached out to figures including Akhmetov and Firtash, assuring them that their businesses will not be targeted. Kiev has even appointed key oligarchs such as Igor Kolomoisky, a banking and industrial magnate, and industrialist Sergei Taruta as governors in the eastern regions of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk, respectively."
I think the above is a fairly good view.
As it was in Tbilisi, it will be in Kiev, minus NATO.
What is going on the Ukraine is much more complicated than a simple “If this, then this” type of statement.
Remember, the same Soros Cabal-financed Open Society NGO’s that destabilized Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt International Renaissance Foundation, using the same playbook that has worked before, have been active in Ukraine for about two years now.
Add in a bad, mismanaged economy full of local and national corruption, and you have the recipe for certain people to make wheelbarrows full of money playing the put spreads.
You couldn’t be more wrong. Historically, Russia has never shown an interest in invading Europe. But they are deeply worried that Europe will invade them, as did Fredrich the Great, Napoleon, The British in Crimea in the 1850s, and the allies in WWI, and WWII. That single fear explains every move they make, and the west simply ignores it or actually feeds the fear.
After WWII they viewed eastern Europe as their safety barrier so that nobody could repeat the Nazi invasion again. After 20 million dead, They gave the world the finger and held eastern Europe as a giant prison buffer zone.
When the wall came down, sane leadership in the west could have taken us to a place much different than today. But we decided expanding NATO right up to the Russian border would be more fun.
Now we are seeing how Russia acts when it feels a threat right on its border. Its almost a forgone conclusion that an EU Ukraine would invite in NATO forces, and that the west will begin to try to destabilize Moscow as it did Kiev.
As Putin said, we really are watching a “monkey with a hand grenade”.
Once they have the political situation turning in their favor it won;t be hard to install a Kremlin friendly government.
It's how Putin will keep it conventional and nobody will stop him, just as nobody stopped Hitler until Japan attacked Pearl Harbor...Then it was quite a while before the armaments and planes needed could be manufactured and the men trained to confront him, (Now in France).
If Hitler had not lost his marbles and delayed attacking on two fronts until be was ready, we would be talking a different scenario...from WWII But he assumed that the British would not be very effective if he kept them suppressed and he failed to see the US entering the fray.
The attack on pearl changed all that, but Hitler had already committed and played out a bad hand.
Putin knows all this, so the game is already set. I am sure his occupation of Poland is already in process. He will use their friendliness with the US as a weapon in Poland's politics, just as he has used it in the Ukraine and in Georgia.
With most of the college graduates for over two decades having been brainwashed into thinking that the US is a global problem and it's policies have damaged the peaceful world, it will be a given that the US will not get into the fray as the US media takes their side, just as they took the German’s side in WWII. They will be attacking Bush for at least another decade.
So it's logically a doable task and it's been underway for years..and you can now see the Russian influence working here as well through the media and through the opinions of out educated elite.
The new regime is reliant on the same corrupt figures as Yanukovych did. Its not a good sign. That Kiev is serious about economic and democratic reform.
To people in Eastern Ukraine, its a different gang of thieves parachuting into office to benefit themselves. And that only compounds its legitimacy crisis. I’m not sure Western backing of Kiev can cure it since the West is perceived to be openly anti-Russian and not a neutral party to a complex domestic dispute.
Its possible the Crimean political earthquake will spread to restive regions of the country. And Kiev can’t use force to assert its authority over them in order not to provoke Russian intervention.
What’s a likely denounement is the Ukrainian state in its current form can’t work. The best thing we could hope for is an outcome akin to the Velvet Divorce between the Czech and Slovak units of what was then Czechoslovakia. If not, it could either lead to an enfeebled Ukrainian state or a bloody outcome.
As far as we know, this crisis is from over.
Their defense rests on us because they all have no defense capability to mention, and again, just as history shows us, the US will be very slow to react and now I believe will not react unless the UN gets on it's hands and knees and begs..
This will look like paint drying, so nobody will get too worked up. Americans as a rule, don't, unless they are attacked. And that's what Putin knows and what he knows is the truth.
“and the allies in WWI, and WWII”
poor wording,, but was referring to the German based Euro alliances arrayed against them. Not of course, to the “Allies” who in both wars were on Russia’s side.
Wow. I am so on the fence. On the one hand I completely agree with you. On the other I think their actions in Abkhazia were criminal.
I see their fear from Ziggy and his chessboard and Nato. But there is little doubt that Putin has been a terrorist when it comes to energy.
Such a sorry mess. How much I miss George Bush!!! More now than for a long time lately. All the work he did to build trust has been tossed in the trash by the idiot we have now "leading" us.
All of this “Putin will invade Poland!’ stuff is just pure hysteria, imho.
What economic or strategic advantage is there for Russia? I said Russia, NOT the Soviet Union. This isn’t 1939.
There are many factors at play here, this isn’t as simple as moving pieces on a Chess board.
“If Hitler had not lost his marbles,,,”
At what point of his life do you opine that he ever possessed ANY marbles?
Poland will kick Russkie ass if they try.
Yes. It’s been a long time coming. Going to be a long time before the dawn.
Worth repeating.
“Poland will kick Russkie ass if they try.”
Quite likely, at least for a while....
Russia can impose it’s influence more effectively, and at a MUCH lower economic cost, by simply turning off the gas valves, or raising the price of it’s energy, for as long as the Euro Eco-pansies allow it.
I wish people would think less Cold War, and more Machiavelli. But I guess we in the west have been programmed to think that way of thinking is “too cruel!”.
That is the REAL influence at work here.
Poland is already one step ahead of you there.
Poland Moves to Reduce Dependence on Russian Gas
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/poland-moves-reduce-dependence-russian-gas-22860402
“But there is little doubt that Putin has been a terrorist when it comes to energy.”
How exactly? Europe hates to drill and has a voracious appetite. Russia loves to drill and has a big supply. It doesn’t make one a terrorist to be a firm business adversary.
Ever notice a pattern? The EU demands gas at price X, homosexuality to be celebrated in Moscow, how Chechyns should be a protected species, how NATO should expand right up to the Russian border, etc.
If Russia disagrees with the one sided rules of the EU, Russia is provoking trouble and unrest.
I had a relationship like that once.
They somehow have a divine right to say how everything must be, and if you simply disagree with their dictates, YOU are the one causing problems. The EU is like a psycho girlfriend.
What is it that they call the “Great war”?
Prior to the war, most of their issues were internal, but now they pan to project power in the same way that China is currently doing, but Chinese need oil..The Russians need something else. They need revenge and the symbolism it would represent.. The EU would go along to get along.
It's the Chinese who have always despised foreign interventions going far back into history. The Russian historical view does not go back that far, except for their distrust of their czardom past. A past that they are currently and unwittingly recreating.
Only two countries in Europe, Britain and Poland, allow fracking. And Poland, in light of recent events has fast tracked increasing shale exploration.
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