Skip to comments.Investment & Finance Thread 2014 New Year(Mar. 17 - nexttime edition)
Posted on 03/17/2014 3:12:23 AM PDT by expat_panama
Investment & Finance Thread 2014 New Year(Mar. 17 - nexttime edition)
This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here.
Open invitation continues always for input on ideas for the thread, this being a joint effort works well.
Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket. We still hope to include here a ----so let me know if anyone wants on or off this ping.
Be advised that it gets posted only when I'm not feeling lazy and remember that we now know from studies that sloth is completely genetic and lazy people are the way they are because they were born that way.
So, which way are we going next?
This past week saw four down days out of five with trading volume increasing on the down tics and last Thursday we saw IBD change the market outlook from "confirmed uptrend" to "market under pressure".
We'll see how tomorrow morning's futures look, but in the mean time--
Gold Poised For Sixth Consecutive Higher Weekly Close
by Peter A. Grant March 14, AM (from USAGOLD.com) -- Gold surged to another six month high on Friday of 1387.87, before prices moderated intraday. The impending Crimean referendum this weekend has ratcheted geopolitical tensions steadily higher. Some U.S. data weakness offered an additional boost to the yellow metal initially.... (read more here)/
So futures traders this morning are planning on both stocks and metals going up. In fact, markets in general are pretty upbeat. For me it's brining to mind an old trader's saying "hold your nose and buy". Headlines:
On the FR:
Nasdaq futures currently up over 25 points.
Am amazed how the markets are overlooking what is happening in Crimea.
The markets are so manipulated now that the Chinese could start a land invasion with a vast military force on the beaches of California and the markets would be up.
Sure seems that way of late. News like this would have sent the markets down several hundred points a decade ago.....now we are basically sitting at all time highs.
Stock traders can not find Crimea on the map.
All they see is charts on their computer screens.
I do not expect any serious downturn until October.
--and wealth haters can't find America on the map.
The fact is that whether it's the stock market, the flea market, or the supermarket free people will buy and sell what they got regardless of outside hand-wringing or attempts at control. Whether it's FDR or BHO America is still a tremendous force to be reckoned with and those that dismiss America's ability to create wealth do so at their own peril.
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This morning’s market glow is still growing —this may be how the deflation we were talking about the other day, that econ activity has not yet even begun to get up to full speed.
So to you anyone who questions the value, or lack thereof, in this market is a wealth hater?
Smart people question 10,000 point moves in the Dow.....only fools think trees can grow to the sky. If you think 1987, 2000 or 2007 cannot happen again you are delusional.
Economic activity has not gotten up to speed yet?
From all of the new and increased taxes?
From the increased regulations?
Forgot to mention.
All those QE’s won’t lead to inflation, will they?
I was expecting a little more of a dip this morning. Looks like we are off to the races again.
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“Wall of Worry” phenomenon?
exactly! Sure I bellyache about the nay-sayers & doom’n’gloomers but it’s a good omen for future prices. Brings to mind a comment I’m remembering from an analyst that was saying that the bull market had a way to go because “the last idiot hasn’t gotten in yet”.
No, it's saying stuff like "markets are so manipulated now that the Chinese could start a land invasion with a vast military force on the beaches of California and the markets would be up". If that ain't wealth hatred it'll do until the real thing gets here.
Smart people question 10,000 point moves in the Dow.....only fools think trees can grow to the sky. If you think 1987, 2000 or 2007...
Let's try to not forget 1776-1986, 1988-1999, etc. A hundred years ago the Dow had doubled in a decade and cracked 100. Fifty years later it pssed 1,000. Anyone who thinks it can't pass 10,000 is saying that America's economy has died. It hasn't. The population will grow, technology will advance, and wealth will be created. It's something we need to deal with.
You're absolutely right that eight years of the loony left's crazy war on business has been a real pain, but when this has happened in the past--
--it only slowed us down. Hard working Americans eventually make it through.
No place else to go for a return on money. One takes the risk vs a bank CD at .025% You going to lose your principal with the devaluation of the dollar it might as well be fully invested in the market.
Those of us with money know that if we lose it all it hurts where as the masses don’t know what they are losing with our current printing press mentality in Washington.
I always wonder if I should take some money out of the market and buy some rural farm land so that I can grow food if we have a real depression? I’m not a country boy but a city guy. Just a thought.
The Dow is a false index. When companies underperform they are removed from the index and newer stronger companies replace them. Yet should a company in the index outperform the averages for some reason they are not replaced. Curious, no?
You're kidding, right?
Actually, it's not even an index, it's just an average of a few dozen big corporations. There are a lot of other complaints about the Dow including the fact that it tracks say, 30 companies out of 10,000 that are listed and tens of thousands that aren't. Still, the ones included are so big they do a good job of mirroring business activity as a whole. Back in 1950 the Dow was about 400 and the total value of all corporations was about $400B. Today the Dow's 16,224 and America's total corporate value is just over $16T. Here's how it's been tracking:
When companies underperform they are removed from the index and newer stronger companies replace them. Yet should a company in the index outperform the averages for some reason they are not replaced. Curious, no?
--and that's exactly what happens in the real world. Your business underperforms and the law of supply and demand removes it from the marketplace. You do ok and you live to sell your product another day.
That’s what happens in the real world?
I believe there is only one company in the original Dow index which still remains. How about putting that on a graph?
Why would I be kidding about a huge increase in the money supply leading to inflation?
Here's a list of the original 1896 Dow stocks:
- American Cotton Oil Company, a predecessor company to Bestfoods, now part of Unilever.
- American Sugar Company, became Domino Sugar in 1900, now Domino Foods, Inc.
- American Tobacco Company, broken up in a 1911 antitrust action.
- Chicago Gas Company, bought by Peoples Gas Light in 1897, now an operating subsidiary of Integrys Energy Group.
- Distilling & Cattle Feeding Company, now Millennium Chemicals, formerly a division of LyondellBasell, the latter of which recently emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
- Laclede Gas Company, still in operation as the Laclede Group, Inc., removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1899.
- National Lead Company, now NL Industries, removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1916.
- North American Company, an electric utility holding company, broken up by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 1946.
- Tennessee Coal, Iron and Railroad Company in Birmingham, Alabama, bought by U.S. Steel in 1907; U.S. Steel was removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1991.
- U.S. Leather Company, dissolved in 1952.
- United States Rubber Company, changed its name to Uniroyal in 1961, merged with private B.F. Goodrich in 1986, bought by Michelin in 1990.
Things change, and we're glad they do.
Going to have to eliminate all my middle managers and put them on the hourly payroll. Should that be the 40 hours or cut them back to 29 hours so that I don’t have to give them health care any longer?
And what the heck is Obama talking about OT? When I started working I would get time and a half when working more then 40 hrs. (I guess OT is now anything greater than 30 hours. Really?). As I got promoted my OT pay would decrease until I hit upper management and then I got no OT. I was expected to do what was necessary to make it work. Now, how in the heck is Mr. I never ran a company in my life, going to administer this? Obama is beyond stupid. There I said it.
Illinois, No. 2 on the list, with 61 percent more people moving out than in, has a depressing story to tell. Stoll says that over time the state has lost a third of its manufacturing jobs and a quarter of its jobs in construction, and a significant proportion of its unemployed have been out of work for the long term, so the real employment rate there is much higher than the relatively high official figure of 8.9 percent suggests. The Labor Department stops counting people as unemployed when they have given up looking for work or they take a part-time job that doesn't pay the rent.
Ten years ago it seemed Panama was the best kept secret for retirement, but I guess now the word’s out.
Turns out yesterday's uptick was in really low volume, meaning that while there were traders that were thinking in economic problems would 'blow over' there weren't that many of 'em.
This morning we got stock futures off/mixed and metals futures sharply down. Kind of what I was thinking yesterday w/ taking 'measured' steps. Other news yesterday had Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization both surprisingly up, and in the news this morning--
Is This the Best the Economy Can Do? - Evan Soltas, Bloomberg
New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk of 2014 Crash - Paul Farrell, MarketWatch
Happy Birthday to the Five-Year Bull Market! - Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity
There Are Some Serious Blow-Ups on the Horizon - Reformed Broker
Montana unemployment falls to 5.3 percent
North Dakota tries to woo workers for empty jobs
Detroit retirees see pension cut plan as divisive
36% of Workers Have Less Than $1,000 in Savings
24/7 Wall Street ^ | John C Ogg
Posted on Tuesday, March 18, 2014 8:01:32 AM by SoFloFreeper
Only the thrifty, though. The rest, and I don’t know the percentages, continually spend more than they bring in, and then wonder why they can accumulate nothing.
The FDIC makes lenders turn in records, so we can know that the delinquency rate on all consumer loans is at 2.5%. “Delinquency” means the loans are being paid late. Loans that aren’t being paid at all are listed in the charge-off rate, that that one’s under 2%.
Out of every 100 American households, 96 are paying on time, 2 are paying late fees, and another two have lost their credit. Not bad imho.
Good morning and a happy mid-week to all --starting off today w/ futures upbeat (if we don't talk metals). Yesterday stocks powered on approaching new highs and while trading volume increased from yesterday it's still below average. Waiting for the fed's FOMC Rate Decision for 2:00PM today maybe. Other news:
3 Signs the Bears Aren't Quite Done Yet - Anthony Mirhaydari, MSN Money
Why Stocks Have Rallied In Face of a New Cold War - Mark Hulbert, MW
Dollar Strengthens Against Yen Before Fed Decision; Pound Rises
Trading Probe Breaks String of Gains for US Exchange Operators
Jesse Jackson targets tech's lack of diversity
Yellen to enter spotlight as new leader of Fed
Seems that suicide's can propagate in a close group of people working and living together, it's a real problem in schools, military bases, and now banks. Good management will proactively call in everyone for a group counseling "talk-it-out". otoh the old 1929 crash rash never happened:
From another thread on this
“Roughly 39,000 people off themselves each year in the usa. 5.5 million people are employed in the banking and insurance industries. Figure half are wankers bankers. that’s 2.75 million bankers out of 320 million people in the usa or .8594%. If we apply this to the number of suicides we would expect 335 bankers to suicide every year. “
That’s an important reality to keep in mind.
Well, her first press conference went well.
CBO Director: Important to Give Advance Warning About Coming Changes to Social Security -
With what is happening in Crimea one would expect the markets to go up.Oh well!
Three from JP Morgan - One VP from the investment bank technology arm (London), an executive director (New York) and a finance pro (Hong Kong).
One former senior Risk Manager for DB (London) William Broeksmit was a big Kahuna and tied to the VP from JP Morgan and to a prominent Chief economist at Russell Investments.
The above link mentions a “missing reporter” who specialized in the oil markets that was being investigated by the Feds.
Their trade books must be very interesting. And their positions (pun intended) very stressful. I guess this is to be filed in the folder entitled “Things that Make You Go Hmmmmm”