Skip to comments.A Pilot on Hijacking of MH370
Posted on 03/17/2014 5:10:35 AM PDT by rktman
As a cyber security professional, I spend much of my time thinking about how to defeat systems in order prevent others from doing the same. And several years ago, my team performed vulnerability assessments on air traffic control systems for the FAA. But I am no aviator. So to speculate on what may have become of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, I engaged in conversation with a commercial pilot who flies for a major American airline. Between the two of us, we arrived at some theories on the mystery surrounding the missing plane.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.townhall.com ...
Great. We need more theories.
Kinda far fetched.
I am leaning toward something More plausible.
According to this article, there is a 102.91 percent chance that there was a cause of the mishap. Clever.
His odds don’t add up:
At the bottom of the Indian Ocean - 95%
Parked at a makeshift landing strip 15%
Hidden in a hangar inside a rogue nation 5%
I like the meteor theory.
Regardless of all the theories that abound with this situation, one thing is absolutely certain: the exquisite pain of ‘not knowing’ that the families are enduring. My heart aches for them .... and as the article ended, I will end as well ..... prayers.
“The time of day is also relevant. Flight 370 took off in the dark of night, at 12:41AM. Commercial imaging satellites primarily use optical cameras. That is, they do not see in the dark any better than your iPhone. So there are no Google Earth images of where the 777 went.”
Google earth doesn’t use regularly updated sat images, does it?
You know the guys on Duck Dynasty debated how often Google updated their images and that is why they threw a bunch of decoys on the roof of the building, which apparently are still there. I never heard what the conclusion was to that question.
Google Earth displays the best available imagery, most of which is one to three years old. The information in Google Earth is collected over time and is not in real time. It is not possible to see live changes in images. You can read more about Understanding Google Earth imagery within the Help center.
Common core math rounding?
Missing Malaysian air liner....
There is one thing what could be done to prevent the occurrence of another one of such incidents. Make it an international law that all transponders have to be wired up in such a manner that they no longer be accessible from the cockpit. In other words no one could tamper with them and shut them down.
This would have to be enforced with all passenger carrying airplanes and any nation not conforming or complying would be refused landing rights in any participating nation. Upon departure of such an aircraft the transponders would be programmed with the call sign as well as origin of such air craft as well as the intended destination. During the flight the transponders would keep track of what ever they are designed to do and accumulate any information which may be essential to know should a mishap occur. This would be a good way to discourage any future hijackers planning a similar incident to make such an airplane disappear in thin air.
I do believe that this would be a reasonable law designed to protect passengers and discourage would be hijackers.
Just a thought
Better, his odds don’t account for closer airfields. I concur with his fuel statement, just not how long the plane would have flown at reduced altitude.
The map based on the engine data ‘ping’ is very curious...
I saw some ‘experts’ talking about the black box .... those could, with current technology, provide in-flight information. Heads were shaking that this is not already done.
FOX this morning was opining that this incident will have repercussions in the airline industry similar to that of 9-11. I suspect what you have suggested will likely happen and perhaps some other changes involving in-flight data being sent from the plane with no pilot access/control of that data.
The US government has a worldwide sat system. In fact, terror states do a lot of their stuff at night to hide from the ‘easy detection’. Daylight satellite imagrey is now child’s play. I don’t know a thing about this weird ‘mystery’, just assumed it was terrorism. Did it disappear in broad daylight or at night?
Tt is common for the government to ‘deny-deny-deny’ terrorism. Remember TWA 800? I’m not surprised by any of this. The more they say it’s ‘unexplained’, the more they cast about for weird explanations, the more likely they know something and don’t want to share for whatever reason.
At the same time, I’m sure that BO is happy to get everyone’s mind off of his scandals.
Many reporters and aviation experts continue to favor the likelihood that the plane was flown south over the Indian Ocean because: “it would be harder to detect”.
How would lack of tracking bother the pilot bent on destroying the aircraft, himself and the passengers?
Why would he be concerned about being ‘shot out of the sky’ if his intent was suicide?
It seems that if he wanted to make a political statement or vent some psychotic rage - he would fly around and flout his message with every flight control tower available.
I’m involved in construction. Google seems to data mine building permit applications throughout the US (not sure about the world). If we break ground for an office building, the Google street viewer car will be by in a few months, and ‘sew in’ a new street view.
But the sat images can get old...3-4 years old sometimes.
The more I discuss this with friends and colleagues, the consensus which seems to be emerging is that the plane was indeed hijacked and on its way to Pakistan for some nefarious purpose. As it crossed Indian airspace, unidentified and unresponsive, the Indians weren’t going to wait around to see what the Pakis were up to and shot it down. And since the vast majority of lives lost were ChiCom, it is now a hot potato diplomatically, and we are assisting the Indians in a cover-up.
At least that seems to be the consensus.
I suggested this earlier, but somebody here pointed out that the transponder is set to a particular channel for each flight. So the pilot will always be able to change the station...and I can’t imagine that every frequency is being monitored, and recorded.
But it seems that some variant of a transponder, on a constant channel, could be agreed upon.
Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68 (another 777)?
1. Hijack a 777
2. Turn off tracking devices
3. Kill the passengers
4. Hide the plane
6. Blow up America/Malaysia/Israel/Other!
How do they get the plane from where it is in hiding to wherever the explosives are without detection (or take the explosives to the plane, whichever) and how do they attack the target without tipping their hand in time for the plot to be thwarted?
And how are the bodies disposed without arousing suspicion? Even a dumping in the ocean would eventually draw sharks and float to the surface.
That’s exactly what happened.
I keep thinking about how the 911 hijackers did at least one dry run that we know of (i.e, James Woods reported seeing the hijackers on Flight 11 a week before), and it would be interesting to know if the men using the stolen passports, (or any other passengers, for that matter), show up on security videos from previous flights.
Of course, it’s possible that some of the passengers may take that flight on a regular basis, but still...I’d sure be scrutinizing previous security videos..!!
That is where I stopped reading this expert analysis.
The “transponder” is a device that responds to radar. The air traffic controllers assign a number to each flight that the pilot manually dials into the unit. The ground radar system now identifies that number with that aircraft (along with heading, altitude, speed, etc.). The transponder doesn’t send out a signal until it receives a “hit” from ground radar then it sends back a ping with the information.
Someone apparently didn’t just “change the channel,” they simply turned that system off.
What about the report yesterday that the pilot’s wife and kids moved out of the family house the day before take off. If true, that’s pretty stunning. They must be located.
We have a place and it appears Google has not been there in Years...like 10+
FWIW, Malaysian authorities said yesterday that the report was untrue.
Somebody knows the truth, but they’re not telling it.
I find a more plausable theory:
1. Pilots, who I believe are Muslim, orchestrated the whole thing from the beginning.
2. They had turned off the first transponder shortly before or shortly after saying “good night
3. They flew to 45000 to kill off the passengers.
4. They diverted West.
5. 50/50 % chance that plane is in th ocean somewhere or has landed.
Early on considered whether or not flying the aircraft in ground effect would offer any advantage toward stealth or range like the Ekranoplane. For the 777 drag is much higher near sea level vice 30k levels at cruise and came to the conclusion fuel consumption allowed 5 hours duration.
>>The map based on the engine data ping is very curious...<<
I saw an explanation for this somewhere that made sense. The ping to the satellite can be used to tell the distance to the airline but not the direction. I’d guess it has to do with the time elapsed somehow, but I’m not sure of that. The report said that they could then use the distance of the satellite from the earth and calculate the angle from the satellite to the airline. That would be simple geometry once you know the two distances, but all you would know is the distance from the satellite which is why you see the two bands displayed. The plane was somewhere along the bands in either direction from its last known location at the last ping.
The bands are the circumference of the circle with the satellite at its center, and the length of the bands are determined by how far the plane could have flown during the time from its last known location as determined by radar.
Actually, they also have more information from those pings, but I haven’t seen a discussion of it. Each ping up until the last would have also generated similar bands, although shorter because the plane wouldn’t have gone as far yet. If the plane was flying toward the satellite, the band for the next ping would be closer to the satellite, and vice versa, so it would be possible to deduce the some information about the direction of the plane between each ping, although not whether it was going left or right relative to the satellite’s position, just whether it was moving toward or away from it.
It appears to be a coincidence that the published bands cross over the last known location of the plane, by the way. Had the plane continued toward China, for example, the bands would be much further out from the satellite’s location.
Interesting map - thanks
My guess after hearing the following (assuming it’s true)
1. The pilot was intensely interested in Malaysian politics.
2. He was highly sympathetic to the recently convicted opposition leader.
3. He was so highly sympathetic and so intensely interested that he attended the trial of the opposition leader and witnessed the outcome in which the court overturned a previous acquital, viewed by many to be political retribution.
4. The trial ended on March 7th.
5. The pilot, an otherwise normal guy according to friends and relatives, got behind the controls of a Boeing 777 on March 8th.
Again, assuming the above is all true, my guess is that he lost it, had absolutely no plan in mind other than revenge against the government, overcame the co-pilot, or simply sent him out for coffee and locked the cabin door, then took the plane to 45K feet to disable everyone else aboard, then to the deck to avoid detection, then flew around in a rage trying to decide what to do next.
Eventually, the realization of what he’d done set in, and the plane is now at the bottom of the ocean as he added suicide to his list of things he really hadn’t planned to do that day. If he had the knowledge at hand, he might even have decided to put the plane down where Malaysian authorities would be least likely to find it, i.e., in the deepest part of the ocean he could locate.
This is consistent with most of what we do know, including the fact that we can’t find the plane anywhere on land, that no one has taken responsibility, that no passengers or crew have come up as terrorist suspects, and that the Malaysian authorities were initially reluctant to share much information.
Of course, if he wasn’t at the trial, the above guess is on a par with all the other baloney “experts” have been putting out. It’s a hoot when two of them are on the same show, one certain that the plane is hidden on land somewhere, the other certain that it’s in the ocean.
Sounds feasible. A nut pilot, wouldn’t be the first time.
In addition, rage at Malaysian authorities would explain why he apparently turned the plane around and headed back toward Malaysia. He might well have been considering using the plane as a weapon at that point, but then finally settled on suicide instead.
These calculations may have come from individual probability formulas for each scenario presented (and perhaps others). The calculations therefore are each dependent on the accuracy, quantity, and type of distribution of existing or hypothetical data, etc. There may also be many unknown, unknowns. These calculations may not sum to 100% unless combined into one formula equaling 100%. Still would be subject to a variety of variability’s.
1) A Pilot or a crew involved as they had access and knowledge
2) Attempted hijacking that went bad.
I don’t buy the daylight satellite images only theory.
I work with IR, and I would assume the government has IR satellites up. I would also assume a jetliner shows up real good in IR.
So it would seem likely to me there is imagery available.
The “inexperienced pilot” theory doesn’t make much sense, I’m afraid.
I’m not a pilot, and I’m perfectly well aware that jets burn a lot more fuel at lower altitudes. Seems unlikely someone could become familiar enough with the plane to be able to fly it, yet be unaware of the range issue.
It appears to be a coincidence that the published bands cross over the last known location of the plane, by the way. Had the plane continued toward China, for example, the bands would be much further out from the satellites location.
I would like to see the data these techs used to draw their conclusions. Without that, it's just another theory with graphics....
Israel doesn’t seem to have a problem with this possibility since they are currently taking security measures to insure they don’t get hit in that possible scenario.
Obviously if a nation such as Israel is taking measures against this happening ... this means that they consider it to be in the realm of the possible. It also indicates they don’t think it crashed and sank in the ocean. It also indicates “who” Israel thinks is behind this “event” - Islamic Terrorists.
Somewhere where Islamic Terrorists are in control - 98%
Another poster, who is an airline pilot, posted reasons why it’s necessary to be able to turn them on and off. So ... given that ... you’re not going to see that law happening.
I want the Cloaking Device theory back. It was entertaining.
It wasn’t reported that they are “missing” and unable to be found. It was reported that they moved out.
That's easy. They had a backhoe. Body disposal problem solved.
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