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Will Russia use "Lawfare" to pave the way for an invasion of Eastern Ukraine?
Powerline ^ | 3/17/2014 | John Hinderaker

Posted on 03/17/2014 6:01:06 PM PDT by lodi90

My assumption has been that Vladimir Putin’s threatening moves against eastern Ukraine are merely a bluff; that Crimea is what he wants, and that he plans to draw back from an invasion of eastern Ukraine while retaining control over Crimea, thereby allowing President Obama’s Team of Nitwits to pat themselves on the back and claim a draw in their confrontation with Russia.

But the text that follows, written by a professor at a Ukrainian university and forwarded to us by a reader, paints a more dire picture. If this sophisticated Ukrainian observer is correct, Russia likely will be able to persuade a Ukrainian court to declare the current government of Ukraine illegal, paving the way for a Russian occupation of the eastern portion of the country. Further, these events may unfold quickly, beginning day after tomorrow.

(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: ukraine
Compelling argument that Ukraine is about to explode.
1 posted on 03/17/2014 6:01:06 PM PDT by lodi90
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To: lodi90

John Roberts moonlighting in Ukraine?


2 posted on 03/17/2014 6:03:16 PM PDT by dontreadthis
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To: lodi90

Are you asking if or when?


3 posted on 03/17/2014 6:03:23 PM PDT by Rider on the Rain
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To: lodi90

Someone needs to send her a copy of “Islam for Idiots.”


4 posted on 03/17/2014 6:06:01 PM PDT by Gen.Blather
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To: lodi90

You mean implode. Nothing will happen after Putin makes his next play, and he knows it.


5 posted on 03/17/2014 6:08:30 PM PDT by Timber Rattler (Just say NO! to RINOS and the GOP-E)
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To: lodi90

Putin is as shrewd as Obama is incompetent...


6 posted on 03/17/2014 6:10:12 PM PDT by GraceG
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To: Sacajaweau

Ping, ...Lawyers again.


7 posted on 03/17/2014 6:12:21 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (Join the Democrats, it's not Fascism when WE do it, and the Constitution and law mean what WE say.)
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To: lodi90

I don’t know. Have Ukraine tell Obama there’s a ship full of oil involved. That seems to get his attention.


8 posted on 03/17/2014 6:13:00 PM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer")
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To: lodi90

If Ukraine were absorbed, it would put millions of people with no loyalty and even hatred of Russia inside Russia’s borders and give them citizenship. Ukrainians could become terrorists inside Russia.


9 posted on 03/17/2014 6:17:03 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
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To: lodi90
Will Russia use "Lawfare" to pave the way for an invasion of Eastern Ukraine?

Interesting, Lawfare was invented by the Western Socialist left. Will the Russians turn another cowardly dirty trick tactic against those that invented it?

Quick study those new Russians.

10 posted on 03/17/2014 6:17:13 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (Join the Democrats, it's not Fascism when WE do it, and the Constitution and law mean what WE say.)
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To: lodi90
On February 22, Ukraine’s Parliament was careful not to remove President Yanukovych from office (i.e. it avoided the lengthy and unpredictable impeachment procedure), but rather it voted to accept his “voluntary renunciation of duties” – justifying such a decision on the basis of his having fled Kyiv during a crucial crisis.

However, Ukraine’s Constitution is quite explicit, and it does not allow for a President to be “relieved of his duties”, nor does it allow for the appointment of an “acting President”. ... the High Administrative Court has no choice but to rule on March 19 to cancel the resolutions of Parliament which effectively removed Yanukovych from office.

The blitzkrieg's gonna rage.

11 posted on 03/17/2014 6:23:25 PM PDT by MUDDOG
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To: lodi90

I wish the GOP was this clever. Only Ted Cruz seems to be this good, the rest just go along with the left’s deliberate ignoring of the law. Obama has finally met someone who will push back.


12 posted on 03/17/2014 6:26:08 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
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To: lodi90

Ukraine had a treaty with NATO and the US .. cover in case of Russian aggression in exchange for giving up their nukes

well, we left them out to twist... and they learned what the word of progressives is worth

I would expect china to amaze similar moves against those unable to put up a fight

how’s that change working, America?

hell... how’re you enjoying the ‘reset’?


13 posted on 03/17/2014 6:29:21 PM PDT by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: lodi90

This may be degenerate just like the Iranian hostage crisis, where the Iranian government initially wanted the kidnappers to pull back until the Iranians saw just how weak Jimmy Carter was. I’m worried how Russia (much stronger than Iran) will react as they watch just how weak Obama (far worse than Carter, as impossible as that would have sounded five years ago) is in his response. Russia may decide to take the Baltic republics, Alaska, and New England, and Obama would probably allow it if Putin promised not to interfere with his golf and vacation schedule.


14 posted on 03/17/2014 6:30:14 PM PDT by Pollster1 ("Shall not be infringed" is unambiguous.)
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To: Vince Ferrer
Only Ted Cruz seems to be this good

He's clever and tough like Jesse Helms, and more polished.

15 posted on 03/17/2014 6:30:43 PM PDT by MUDDOG
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To: Vince Ferrer

“0bama has finally met someone who will push back.”

That’s it, Putin is a racist.


16 posted on 03/17/2014 6:32:17 PM PDT by DeadFurrow (Your rights end where mine begins.)
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To: lodi90

Doing something that drastic could result in a “stern letter of warning” from SOS (Sack of Sh..) John Kerry-Heinz and sanctions by His Arrogance of barring exports of Eggos to Russia.


17 posted on 03/17/2014 6:37:18 PM PDT by RetiredTexasVet (WWP and Paralyed Veterans Assoc. doing the work the U.S. Veterans Administration won't do!)
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To: Vince Ferrer
If there are any creative thinkers in the GOP, Putin and Yanukovych may have handed them a gift.

From the legal strategy: Yanukovych promised to file legal challenges in US courts against the Obama administration (!). He went to great pains to remind the US government of its own laws which prohibit the provision of aid to a foreign government that has come to power illegally.

If Obama aids Ukraine after the Maidan government is declared illegitimate, it is a serious violation of US law, and an impeachable offense.

Yanukovych does not have to appear personally in US court to sue, so banning his entry is fruitless.

18 posted on 03/17/2014 6:38:42 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (Join the Democrats, it's not Fascism when WE do it, and the Constitution and law mean what WE say.)
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To: Pollster1

This may be degenerate just like the Iranian hostage crisis, where the Iranian government initially wanted the kidnappers to pull back until the Iranians saw just how weak Jimmy Carter was.


That’s a good analogy. Putin will keep taking bites of the apple until he tastes something sour.


19 posted on 03/17/2014 6:45:27 PM PDT by lodi90
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To: DeadFurrow
That’s it, Putin is a racist.

Somehow I don't think Putin would curl up in a ball if he were called a racist.

20 posted on 03/17/2014 6:46:29 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
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To: sten
Ukraine had a treaty with NATO and the US

Ukraine had a memorandum signed by the Sink Emperor that was never submitted to the Senate for ratification.

That is not a treaty.

21 posted on 03/17/2014 6:48:02 PM PDT by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise. H)
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To: GraceG

If Chuck Norris was a Russian Commie, he’d be Putin....


22 posted on 03/17/2014 6:48:22 PM PDT by nascarnation (Toxic Baraq Syndrome: hopefully infecting a Dem candidate near you)
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To: sten
Ukraine had a treaty with NATO and the US .. cover in case of Russian aggression in exchange for giving up their nukes

There is not and never was any such treaty. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum was never submitted to the U.S. Senate for ratification and is therefore not a binding international treaty. As a mere "political agreement" it is not worth the paper it was printed on.

23 posted on 03/17/2014 6:49:50 PM PDT by Always A Marine
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To: Timber Rattler

Remember when Putin laid claim to the Arctic Ocean floor under the polar ice cap as sovereign Russian territory? Said the geological slope from Russia proper to the submerged North Pole was so gradual as to make it part of Russia.

They even laid a Russian flag monument on the North Pole ocean bottom to ‘annex’ it as part of Mother Russia.

“Truth is always stranger than fiction”


24 posted on 03/17/2014 6:52:39 PM PDT by elcid1970 ("In the modern world, Muslims are living fossils.")
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To: Vince Ferrer

If Ukraine were absorbed, it would put millions of people with no loyalty and even hatred of Russia inside Russia’s borders and give them citizenship.


The KGB plan seems to be a dismemberment of Ukraine. Putin would take everything east of the Dnieper and all of the southern coast to connect up with the Russians in Moldova. That leaves Kiev, Lviv and not much else as the new “Ukraine”.

After today I don’t see anybody stopping Putin. Why wait if that is the case?


25 posted on 03/17/2014 6:55:03 PM PDT by lodi90
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To: lodi90
Putin would take everything east of the Dnieper and all of the southern coast to connect up with the Russians in Moldova.

Those areas are majority Russian speaking, but not exclusively Russian. That would still put 30-40% of the population of those areas as having non-russian loyalties.

26 posted on 03/17/2014 6:59:48 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
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To: lodi90

I think it extends to the Russians a wizardry that’s beyond implausible. Russia is going to do all it can to undermine and disrupt Kiev.... but its not going to directly flaunt it in the West’s face.

Moscow prefers to create fait accomplis first and dare the West to reverse them - all without leaving its fingerprints at the scene of the crime. What the Kremlin pulled off in Crimea is likely to become its template for dealing with Ukraine.


27 posted on 03/17/2014 7:02:54 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Always A Marine; Jim Noble

In return for giving up its nuclear weapons, Ukraine, the United States of America, Russia, and the United Kingdom signed the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, pledging to respect Ukraine territorial integrity, a pledge that was arguably broken by Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea.[3]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine


28 posted on 03/17/2014 7:04:37 PM PDT by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: sten

I think they should have kept the nuclear weapons rather than holding a worthless piece of paper. How could they do that in light of what happened back in the 1930’s?


29 posted on 03/17/2014 7:12:43 PM PDT by Karl Spooner
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To: Vince Ferrer

Interesting article. I dug into it a bit and found the Professors had posted this to his facebook. The English Maiden site picked it up as well. There are some slight variations in his original, but the same outcome exists.
http://euromaidanpr.wordpress.com/2014/03/17/thoughts-from-kyiv-on-imminent-invasion-16-march-2014/ and his facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mychailo.wynnyckyj?fref=ts


30 posted on 03/17/2014 7:12:58 PM PDT by Trapper6012
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To: Vince Ferrer

Russia wouldn’t annex them but create a loyal pro-Moscow Ukrainian state that would be a more natural fit for Putin’s Eurasian Union. He’ll offer to guarantee the independence of the West’s rump Ukrainian state - for a price, of course.


31 posted on 03/17/2014 7:13:28 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: lodi90
It looks to me like Putin has the facts on his side, ugly as they might be. The West backed the violent overthrow of Ukraine's elected government, so the present Kiev regime is therefore illegal. To defend its own strategic interests against the new, anti-Moscow government in Kiev, Russia has now seized Crimea and allied itself with the breakaway peninsula's heavily Russian population. Logically, the Moscow-leaning eastern half of Ukraine is next.

We may not like what is happening, but we can't support a coup one month and then pretend the following month's counter-coup is somehow illegitimate. The strongest side will prevail and there's not a thing we can do about it. Except talk. And words that cannot be supported with action are better left unsaid, lest their speaker lose all credibility.

32 posted on 03/17/2014 7:13:29 PM PDT by Always A Marine
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To: lodi90
Russia’s invasion of eastern and southern Ukraine will be “justified” by the Kremlin as an operation aimed at protecting the interests of Russian-speakers from an illegitimate, fascist, intolerant and anarchic post-revolutionary Kyiv government.

Even if the Ukraine government is found illegitimate, russia has no right to invade a sovereign country. Putin is acting as if he is a party to this, but he no legal standing himself.

33 posted on 03/17/2014 7:13:45 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
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To: Vince Ferrer

He claims he is not a party and technically Russia has not used armed force in Ukraine.

None of what happened in the last two weeks fits normal rules of warfare. We’re punishing the Russians because we’re too proud to admit they outsmarted us.


34 posted on 03/17/2014 7:17:40 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: sten

The 1994 Budapest Memorandum was a political agreement and means zilch. Under the Constitution, a signed treaty must be submitted to the Senate and then ratified by a 2/3 vote in order to have any force in law. That was never done, nor did Clinton ever intend to do so.


35 posted on 03/17/2014 7:23:22 PM PDT by Always A Marine
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To: sten

The President of the united States cannot “pledge” anything of this nature without the concurrence of 2/3 of the Senate.

This did not happen with the so-called “Budapest Memorandum”, therefore, the united States central government not only is not pledged to anything, but has no right to carry out any military or other steps in furtherance of same.


36 posted on 03/17/2014 7:28:01 PM PDT by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise. H)
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To: Jim Noble

Anything signed by Bill Clinton isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.


37 posted on 03/17/2014 7:29:39 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: lodi90

Do we have good reason to believe that Russian intellectual elites are somehow more connected to reality than the domestic ones that currently infest our government?

I have no more or better window into what will or will not happen in Ukraine than anyone else, that is not my claim. The “Euro-leaning” part of Ukraine probably has tremendous resentment for the horrible mistreatment of the various ethnicities that occurred under Stalin, and remains a semi-backwards agricultural/industrial area today.

Probably the Euros want to embrace Ukraine for its many resources and industrial areas, but to do that they will have to engage in another costly bailout of Ukraines’ existing debts and in effect, place those funds right into Putin’s pocket. And they’re not in the best shape to do that, nor would there be any sort of unanimity to do so. (Big surprise, the Euros are always great on agreeing on stuff, right?)

I don’t believe outsiders are in much of a position to predict how this will play out.


38 posted on 03/17/2014 7:34:42 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (At no time was the Obama administration aware of what the Obama administration was doing)
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To: dfwgator

I would take the same view if it were signed by any other President.

It is for good reason that 2/3 of the representatives of the States must agree to a foreign treaty. If they don’t, the States are not bound thereby.


39 posted on 03/17/2014 7:36:33 PM PDT by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise. H)
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To: elcid1970
When Putin annexed the North Pole, did he oust Santa Claus and replace him with Grandpa Frost?

Maybe American kids have been getting toys from Grandpa Frost the last few years and didn't realize it. (I think Grandpa Frost looks pretty similar to Santa Claus.)

40 posted on 03/17/2014 7:39:28 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: lodi90

I personally find it refreshing that the ‘commie thugs’ are using their legal system and relying on their Constitution and the law to get rid of the illegitimate puppet government in Kiev.


41 posted on 03/17/2014 7:47:59 PM PDT by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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To: All

Pretty soon Bill Gates may be able to see Russia from his house.


42 posted on 03/17/2014 7:49:21 PM PDT by Peter ODonnell (It wasn't this cold before global warming)
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To: dontreadthis

BTTT !


43 posted on 03/17/2014 8:24:41 PM PDT by Graewoulf (Democrats' Obamacare Socialist Health Insur. Tax violates U.S. Constitution AND Anti-Trust Law.)
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To: Always A Marine
but we can't support a coup one month and then pretend the following month's counter-coup is somehow illegitimate.

The Russians are executing an invasion, not your typical "counter-coup".
44 posted on 03/17/2014 9:50:13 PM PDT by Girlene (Hey, NSA!)
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To: Vince Ferrer
Even if the Ukraine government is found illegitimate, russia has no right to invade a sovereign country.

Just like Iraq?

45 posted on 03/18/2014 1:13:57 AM PDT by Timber Rattler (Just say NO! to RINOS and the GOP-E)
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To: Vince Ferrer
Even if the Ukraine government is found to be illegitimate, Russia has no right to invade a sovereign country.

If the radical government in Kiev is found to be illegitimate (and it is), than the old elected government is still the legitimate authority. Russian actions can be presented as being taken at their request.

You'd like to believe that things like Constitutional law and democratic process still matter to the West. But after listening to Victoria Nuland on the telephone casually discussing which unelected opposition leader the US wants to put in charge in Kiev, over the objections of the European Union's choice, I'm not so sure.

46 posted on 03/18/2014 6:14:40 AM PDT by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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