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Crimea Through a Game-Theory Lens
NYT ^ | March 15, 2014 | Tyler Cowen

Posted on 03/19/2014 6:55:44 AM PDT by 1rudeboy

A Russian occupation of Crimea raises the specter of the Cold War, in which the nuclear stalemate between the United States and the Soviet Union devolved into regional disputes around the world.

While military and political frictions made the biggest headlines, the Cold War couldn’t be well understood without using economic theory — specifically, game theory, which analyzes the strategic logic of threats, credibility and conflict.

It’s worth viewing the crisis in Ukraine through the prism of game theory, too, as applied on several fronts:

NUCLEAR DETERRENCE

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TIPPING POINTS

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MARKET DETERRENCE

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CREDIBILITY AND CONSEQUENCES How much credibility will the United States lose if it doesn’t respond forcefully to Russian action? This, too, is a problem of game theory.

A commitment by a sovereign state is credible only when that state’s self-interest dictates honoring it. Previous American pledges to help or protect Ukraine were not all that credible to begin with, given the greater power and historical influence of Russia in the region. Failing to protect Crimea therefore doesn’t automatically lead to a big shift in the world’s perception of American willingness to honor commitments where the nation’s loyalties and interests are more certain. Daryl G. Press, a professor of government at Dartmouth, articulates a general version of that argument in his book “Calculating Credibility.”

Still, there may be a net loss of credibility, perhaps a serious one, when the world is uncertain where American self-interest lies. For instance, how dedicated is the United States to protecting various disputed small Asian islands from Chinese domination or conquest? How much does America care about the de facto independence of Taiwan these days, or about limiting China’s influence in the South China Sea? The answers may not be obvious, especially in a diverse democracy like ours.

But for strategists in China and elsewhere....

(Excerpt) Read more at mobile.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 03/19/2014 6:55:44 AM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy
A Russian occupation of Crimea...

Stopped reading right there.

2 posted on 03/19/2014 7:07:13 AM PDT by McGruff (They say the first casualty of war is truth)
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To: 1rudeboy
Previous American pledges to help or protect Ukraine were not all that credible to begin with, given the greater power and historical influence of Russia in the region

And besides, we don't like neo nazis. No we don't.

3 posted on 03/19/2014 7:07:33 AM PDT by MarMema ("If Americans really wanted Obamacare, you wouldn't need a law to make them buy it." Ted Cruz)
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To: 1rudeboy

Crimea is very far from the United States. Putin’s greatest crime is that he committed a nationalist act.This is contrary to the vision and goals of one world globalists like Obama and Kerry. Obama and Kerry are not American nationalists. They have apologized to Muslims and others for what they perceive to be America’s transgressions. They are astonished that other peoples still feel passionately about their cultures and countries. They also confuse their whining pouting rhetoric as leadership.Sadly as the United States enters its “progressive, multicultural” period, it is a weaker power and has far less influence than it once had. It cannot effect world events at will, nor does it have the influence to forge a consensus.


4 posted on 03/19/2014 7:11:10 AM PDT by allendale
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To: allendale
Putin’s greatest crime is that he committed a nationalist act.

To Globalists, there's no bigger sin.

5 posted on 03/19/2014 7:11:43 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: McGruff

Might as well have stopped at NYT


6 posted on 03/19/2014 7:15:49 AM PDT by bill1952 (choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: 1rudeboy

Does anyone remember Cyprus? that has a northern portion occupied by turkey with a puppet goverment. That has been going since 1974 and the US and British have ZERO credibility on that front.

Colin Powel botched that one ala john kerry.


7 posted on 03/19/2014 7:17:32 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: McGruff
That's right! It was a liberation!
/Borscht Brigade
8 posted on 03/19/2014 7:18:30 AM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: MarMema

Who’s “we?” Are you speaking for Americans, or Russians today?


9 posted on 03/19/2014 7:19:52 AM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy
Crimea Through a Game-Theory Lens

Crimea through a realistic lens: Russia views Crimea as Russian territory (with quite a bit of justification) and their warm water port, and they will do anything to keep it. Everything else is just noise.
10 posted on 03/19/2014 7:22:00 AM PDT by jjsheridan5
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To: jjsheridan5

What would we do if Cuba threatened to take over Guantanamo Bay?


11 posted on 03/19/2014 7:22:35 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: bill1952
Might as well have stopped at NYT

FYI, Tyler Cowen is a professor of Economics at George Mason who leans right/libertarian, so your knee-jerk reaction was unnecessary.

12 posted on 03/19/2014 7:26:32 AM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: dfwgator
What would we do if Cuba threatened to take over Guantanamo Bay?

We would do what is in our national interest, just as Russia is doing what is in theirs.
13 posted on 03/19/2014 7:26:56 AM PDT by jjsheridan5
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To: 1rudeboy

All of these “analysts” need to stop with the “U.S. credibility” crap and begin stating the fact that it is Odumbass “credibility” (or lack thereof) that is encouraging the encroachment by bad actors all over the world.


14 posted on 03/19/2014 7:31:52 AM PDT by Common Sense 101 (Hey libs... If your theories fly in the face of reality, it's not reality that's wrong.)
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To: 1rudeboy
Up the Neo-Con Fascista Homos!
15 posted on 03/19/2014 8:11:39 AM PDT by Navy Patriot (Join the Democrats, it's not Fascism when WE do it, and the Constitution and law mean what WE say.)
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To: 1rudeboy
Game Theory relies on both players having game pieces. When one side unilaterally gives up game pieces, it is unilaterally surrendering.
16 posted on 03/19/2014 8:45:32 AM PDT by Pecos (The Chicago Way: Kill the Constitution, one step at a time.)
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To: Navy Patriot

Enough about Vladi Putin, what do you really think?


17 posted on 03/19/2014 9:04:02 AM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

Or, as Fred Thompson said in Hunt for Red October:

‘The Russians don’t take a dump without a plan son.’


18 posted on 03/19/2014 9:05:32 AM PDT by Free Vulcan (Vote Republican! You can vote Democrat when you're dead...)
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To: 1rudeboy
Enough about Vladi Putin, what do you really think?

Public schools have done their job.

19 posted on 03/19/2014 9:15:34 AM PDT by Navy Patriot (Join the Democrats, it's not Fascism when WE do it, and the Constitution and law mean what WE say.)
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To: Navy Patriot

So say the Russians . . . .


20 posted on 03/19/2014 9:17:10 AM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

We don’t have to worry about this affecting America’s credibility. Thanks to Obama, I am certain that American credibility will not change from the current level (zero) for three more years.


21 posted on 03/19/2014 9:26:00 AM PDT by Pollster1 ("Shall not be infringed" is unambiguous.)
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