Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

2016 Republican Presidential Update: A New, Familiar Name at the Top: Jeb Bush Leads the Pack.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: U.Va. Center for Politics ^ | 03/20/2013 | Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik,

Posted on 03/20/2014 7:22:44 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

In our first ranking of the very large and very unsettled 2016 Republican presidential field back in April of last year, we decided to not even include the name of one of the brightest stars in the GOP universe: Jeb Bush. We just didn’t think, at the time, that the former Florida governor and brother and son of presidents was all that interested in running.

But during 2013 and into this new year, we’ve gotten the sense, like many others, that things might be changing. So much so that we now consider Bush the leader of the field if he decides to run.

Why?

There are several reasons, and one of the most important does not have much to do with Bush, at least on the surface: Chris Christie’s bridge scandal.

To understand the potential importance of l’affaire bridge in determining whether Jeb Bush might run for president, we need to look back at the 2012 presidential cycle.

In the late summer of 2011, the Bush family surveyed the seemingly finalized Republican presidential primary field and apparently didn’t like what they saw. As reported by Dan Balz in Collision 2012 and Mark Halperin and John Heilemann in Double Down, Chris Christie received a phone call from former President George W. Bush in August 2011. Bush and Christie talked for 45 minutes about the pluses and minuses of running for president. Shortly thereafter, Christie’s wife, Mary Pat, got a call from former First Lady Barbara Bush, who described the benefits of raising a family in the White House. Christie also sat down with Bush consigliere Karl Rove and consulted with other Republican heavyweights, some close to the Bushes and some not.

Christie, who at the time was in the middle of just his second year as New Jersey’s governor, eventually decided to pass on the race.

While many have observed that Christie’s recent troubles have created an opening for Jeb Bush, there’s another connection to be made: With Christie damaged, the Bush family might have lost its preferred 2016 candidate, leaving a void that only a Bush can fill. Enter Jeb, who apparently shares — or at least shared — his family’s affection for Christie (“I love the guy,” Bush said of Christie in March 2013).

In mid-November, as Christie was basking in his 60% reelection victory, Politico’s Ben White reported on Jeb Bush’s not-quite 50/50 chances of running, citing several Wall Street and Washington sources. One factor in Bush’s decision-making was Christie, whose star at that precise moment could not have shined brighter. Essentially, if Christie was obviously putting together a strong campaign, that would probably keep Bush out; but if he wasn’t, that could induce Bush to enter.

Of course, we know what happened in the months that followed: Christie took a major hit as the bridge-closing story exploded. Christie’s problems have only elevated Bush by comparison, and the two men would occupy similar space in a hypothetical primary contest: The same voters and states that backed the successful nominations of John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 — i.e. the ones with smaller concentrations of “very conservative” and white evangelical voters like New Hampshire, Florida and many Midwestern states — would probably be inclined to back one of these two or someone like them.

For all the sturm und drang regarding the Tea Party in the Republican nominating process, it’s going to be hard for someone who lacks widespread establishment support — like Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY) or Ted Cruz (R-TX) — to win the nomination. Political science research indicates that endorsements from sitting officeholders and party leaders can be quite predictive of presidential nominees.

And that leads us to another reason to take a potential Bush candidacy seriously: The establishment loves him.

In recent months, we’ve noticed an unmistakable and widespread desire among some of the Republicans we talk to, particularly ones who would be classified as members of the establishment on and off Capitol Hill, for a third Bush nominee in less than three decades. In one conversation, we mentioned several other potential candidates on our list, but the chatter kept coming back to Jeb. He was the only candidate with whom these party leaders appeared to be comfortable.

A preference for a Bush candidacy is inspired, we think, by a natural conservatism among political party leaders in searching for presidential candidates. The parties want someone who is a proven commodity capable of running a strong campaign and raising a Fort Knox of gold without much hand-holding. It’s a preference for the safest choice, and it’s got nothing to do with a political belief system. The desire amongst the vast majority of Democratic leaders for Hillary Clinton to run in 2016 stems from the same kind of “conservative” impulse. Compared to riskier nominees, Clinton, like Bush, would be an anodyne choice. This is the kind of establishment impulse that drives activists, particularly conservative ones, batty. But it’s also a decent strategy for actually winning elections — the “no surprises” approach.

The implications of a Bush candidacy would be wide-reaching, and — to be clear — we don’t know if he’s running. He probably doesn’t know himself. The reason we’re putting him first now is that if he were to run, we’d see him as a modest favorite over the other potential candidates in the field, and he might be the one Republican whose entry could keep other candidates out. For instance, Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) are close, and many observers doubt that they would run against one another in a presidential contest. (Bush’s son, George P., just appeared at two Palm Beach fundraisers for Rubio; the younger Bush is running for land commissioner, a statewide elected office in Texas.) That said, stranger things have happened in politics than a hypothetical Bush vs. Rubio matchup in a GOP primary field: Political alliances are often written in pencil, not pen.

Perhaps Christie will recover to the point where he is again seen as a viable contender, in which case Bush could take a pass and back him or someone else (like Rubio). Granted, that seems preposterous given how damaged Christie is now. Yes, Christie retains the chairmanship of the Republican Governors Association, but he rarely appears in public in that role these days. For instance, he ducked the national press at the recent National Governors Association conference in Washington, and earlier this week the RGA sent out a statement praising vulnerable Gov. Rick Scott’s (R-FL) economic record not from Christie, but from Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-NV). Presidential candidates usually aren’t nominated if they reside in the isolation ward.

Christie benefits from Americans’ very short attention spans and his own political talent, which is considerable and probably superior to anyone else mentioned as a candidate. But he might be cooked nationally, anyway — it’s just not obvious to us one way or the other at this point. In a way, Bush’s machinations going forward might be as much of an indication of how national Republicans view Christie’s viability as anything else.

Perhaps another weathervane is Bush’s mother, Barbara, who recently softened her stance against the idea of another Bush presidency after saying last year that the country has “had enough Bushes.”

Aside from moving Jeb Bush to the top of our list, we left the rest of the list mostly the same. Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) remains, to us, an intriguing option for Republicans, although he has a liability we have heretofore not mentioned: Walker never finished college, although it’s worth noting that only 47% of Americans who voted in 2012 were college graduates, according to the exit poll. Walker has a useful comeback, of course: The last president not to have a college degree was Harry Truman, and he’s ranked “near great” by most historians. Okay, we can already hear Democrats chanting, “We knew Harry Truman, he was a friend of ours, and Scott Walker, you’re no Harry Truman!”

Finally, a recent e-mail dump in an investigation of Walker’s associates for campaign shenanigans didn’t really contain any major red flags as far as we could tell. It also goes without saying that Walker needs to win reelection this November to be a presidential contender.

Table 1 shows our updated presidential ratings:

Table 1: Crystal Ball ratings of 2016 Republican presidential contenders

First Tier
Candidate Key Advantages Key Disadvantages Since Last Update
Jeb Bush
Ex-Governor, FL
•Strong gubernatorial resume
•Hispanic connections
•Key swing state
•National Bush money and organization
•Wrong last name (Bush dynasty) — although Clinton dynasty could neutralize this
•George W. Bush’s record?
•Does he actually want to run?
Scott Walker
Governor, WI
•Midwest GOP gov. in Obama state
•Heroic conservative credentials
•Shown political durability
•Too bland? Next Pawlenty?
•Do lingering scandals hurt him?
•No college degree
Rand Paul
Senator, KY
•Tea Party favorite
•Strong support from libertarian GOP wing
•National ID and fundraising network
•Too dovish/eclectic for GOP tastes?
•Association with out-of-mainstream father
•Plagiarism questions
Chris Christie Governor, NJ •Dynamic speaker
•Shown ability to pursue mainly conservative agenda in Blue state
•Could bridge criticism by media rally the right?
•Bridge scandal still playing out
•Bullying and out-of-control-staff questions
•Not conservative enough for base?
Second Tier
Marco Rubio
Senator, FL
•Dynamic speaker and politician
•From most electorally valuable swing state
•Future tough votes in Senate; has and will have federal record
•Did his national star peak too soon?
•Could he really deliver more Hispanic votes?
Ted Cruz
Senator, TX
•Tea Party favorite with voting record to match
•Texas and small dollar fundraising
•Dynamic speaker
•Anti-establishment nature plays well with base
•Tea Party favorite
•Too extreme? One word: Shutdown.
•Disliked on both sides of the Senate aisle
John Kasich
Governor, OH
•Swing state
•Long conservative record
•Could be fallback for GOP establishment forces
•Supported Medicaid expansion
•Makes verbal miscues, lots of video from time as Fox host
•Abrasive personality
Wild Cards?
Paul Ryan
Representative, WI
•2012 VP candidate — next in line?
•General election experience
•Strong conservative record
•May not want to run, possibly positioning self for future in House
•Not a dynamic campaigner
Mike Huckabee
Ex-Governor, AR
•Extensive governing experience
•Already vetted
•Blue collar appeal
•Strong support from social conservatives
•Southerner in Southern-centered party
•Too narrow appeal within party?
•Disliked by economic conservatives
•Small fundraising base
Rob Portman
Senator, OH
•Very well qualified; vast government experience
•From key swing state
•Supports same-sex marriage
•More insider than leading man
•Crowded out by fellow Ohioan Kasich?
•Supports same-sex marriage
NEW
Susana Martinez
Governor, NM
•Diversity in party sorely in need of it
• Electoral success in Blue state
• Compelling life story/record
•Pro-Medicaid expansion
•Unvetted nationally
•Frequently disavows interest in running
NEW
Also-Rans
Rick Santorum
Ex-Senator, PA
•Strong support from social conservatives
•2nd place finisher in ‘12 — next in line?
•Been around primary track
•Harder to stand out in stronger 2016 field
•Lost last Senate race by 17%
•Chip-on-shoulder attitude
Rick Perry
Governor, TX
•Showing clear improvement as a candidate — “second chance” mentality
•Strong conservative credentials
•Texas fundraising
•Extensive executive experience
•Ran very poor 2012 race
•More “Texas” in a nation that is not as conservative as the Lone Star State
•“Oops,” we forgot the rest

After moving Bush from our wild card column all the way up to No. 1, we are adding a couple names to the wild card portion: Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) and Gov. Susana Martinez (R-NM). Both would bring a bit of diversity to the field: Portman through a notable issue position (he supports gay marriage while otherwise being a stalwart conservative) and Martinez through her background (in addition to being Hispanic, she’s the only woman on the list and also, depending on how one classifies Texas, the only westerner). One of us spelled out Portman’s potential in a recent column for Politico Magazine. Ultimately, we think Gov. John Kasich (R-OH) is the likelier Ohioan in the field (assuming he wins reelection), and Martinez is probably more of a vice presidential contender at this point. But both merit mention on an ever-growing list of possibilities.

We fully admit that we may be underestimating our “Also Rans.” Rick Santorum’s blunt, social conservative substance and style has undying appeal to Republicans who would rather be right than be president. “Compromise, hell no!” is their slogan. And Rick Perry is bouncing back as a much better candidate, at least in his early outings, than he appeared to be in his disastrous 2012 incarnation. Observers should never underestimate the fierce conservatism of much of the Republican base. Yet we think most of the GOP, after its 2008 and 2012 drubbings, is determined not to make a mistake in picking its 2016 candidate; the party is looking for a nominee who can actually get to 270 electoral votes in November, and not just in their pre-election imaginings.

Reality check: There are 963 days to the 2016 presidential election. So there will be plenty of time to read the tea leaves, and the Republican field remains highly fluid. We’ve moved up Jeb Bush, but this is in no way, shape or form a firm prediction he’ll be the nominee. Rather, we just wanted to reflect what we’ve been hearing in the early stages of 2016’s “invisible primary.” If anything, the elevation of Bush — who very well may not even run — is just another indication that while Republicans should have a decent chance to win the White House in 2016, they will probably have to sort themselves out in a rather dramatic primary first — not to mention use good judgment and accept some painful realities about the changing American electorate.

We have no updates at this time to our rankings of the 2016 Democratic contenders — the field remains contingent on Hillary Clinton’s decision — but for an assessment of the prospects of Vice President Joe Biden (D) and a broader look at the vice presidency as a presidential stepping stone, please take a look at Joel Goldstein’s piece in today’s Crystal Ball.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2016; 2016gopprimary; bush2016; florida; jebbush; jebbush2016; potus; republicans; sabato
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-65 next last
To: DoughtyOne
Aye..

The GOP doesn't represent conservatives...so I cant discount the possibility of Jeb as the nominee...

21 posted on 03/20/2014 7:41:11 PM PDT by montanajoe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Jeb couldn’t possibly lead the pack since a group of RINOs would be called a herd.


22 posted on 03/20/2014 7:41:33 PM PDT by freedomfiter2 (Brutal acts of commission and yawning acts of omission both strengthen the hand of the devil.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Larry Sabato is a Liberal Democrat, in academia, and he uses his taxpayer financed Center for Politics at the state University of Virginia to promote Liberal-big L Democrat ideas.

I wouldn’t trust anything he had to say about the GOP.


23 posted on 03/20/2014 7:44:06 PM PDT by Wuli (kra)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Jeb will the third strike looser.


24 posted on 03/20/2014 7:44:57 PM PDT by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Not one $&/! dime to the GOP.


25 posted on 03/20/2014 7:45:09 PM PDT by Flick Lives ("I can't believe it's not Fascism!")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Jeb will BE the third strike looser.


26 posted on 03/20/2014 7:45:46 PM PDT by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Who are these faggots? Jeb? Really?


27 posted on 03/20/2014 7:48:13 PM PDT by Sirius Lee (All that is required for evil to advance is for government to do "something")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Paladin2
CNN/ORC International survey
Rand Paul . . . . . 16    
Paul Ryan . . . . . 15   
Rick Perry  . . . . 11   
Mike Huckabee . . . 10    
Jeb Bush  . . . . .  9   
Chris Christie  . .  8   
Ted Cruz  . . . . .  8   
Marco Rubio . . . .  5    
Rick Santorum . . .  3   
other/no opinion  . 15  
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/03/16/cnn-poll-rand-paul-goes-where-his-father-never-went/
28 posted on 03/20/2014 7:53:17 PM PDT by Ray76 (Profit from the mistakes of others, you'll never live long enough to make them all yourself.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: KC_Lion

RE: Scott Walker, no college degree

I guess that would disqualify men like Andrew Jackson, Abe Lincoln, Grove Cleveland and Harry Truman


29 posted on 03/20/2014 7:54:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (question is this)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Sirius Lee

Please, do NOT bring me another Shrubbery! They are much like socialist democRATS.


30 posted on 03/20/2014 7:57:04 PM PDT by MtnClimber (Liberals - wrong is right, down is up, gulags are utopia.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

If W. Bush is the standard for how the Bush family operates, Jeb will try to lock up all the big name Republican donors long before the race has begun, to wipe out any chance for primary competition.

The only way to stop such a scheme is to let the big money know that conservatives will not, EVER, vote for Jeb Bush, in that he would be even worse for the country than Hillary.

Think about that statement. “Worse than Hillary”.

W. Bush effectively turned America into a hyper-paranoid police state. America is now, for all intents and purposes a “Military-Industrial-Police-Surveillance Complex”. Our Bill of Rights has been trashed, and so many spooks, from so many agencies, are trying to redundantly and pervasively monitor our lives that it is a miracle the Internet still functions.

We applauded W. Bush for taking the fight to our foreign enemies, in other countries. But he could not distinguish between the enemy over there, and innocent American citizens over here. The vast majority of anti-terrorism laws are used against *us*, not *them*. This is wrong.

This is wrong. This is evil. And it must end.

And Jeb Bush will just make it worse.

Like his brother, he starts by pretending to be an affable clown; a regular guy; an everyman. He isn’t. None of the Bush family ever were. They were raised to be part of the political elites.

So Jeb Bush, and Karl Rove, and the other members of the RINO cabal think that they can foist one of their despicable number on us ONCE AGAIN, leaving us NO CHOICE but to suffer under a Hillary Clinton administration.

Damn their eyes, and damn what ruination they and the Democrats have inflicted on our nation.

At each and every opportunity we must let them know that if they push Jeb Bush in front of us, we will throw rotten vegetables at him. Even if they front him a billion dollars to campaign with, we will not vote for him.

Not now, not later, not ever. No. Nothing. Not.

And like Obama with Mitt Romney, those swine would prefer Obama over a conservative candidate. But that is what we must force on them. A real conservative. One who has not sold out to the forces of internationalism, authoritarianism, and the status quo.

One who will slash and burn the federal government to half its size and budget. And for all their tricks, if they won’t let us fix America, then we will call an Article V convention of the states and we will tear down their bloated and obscene government and bury it in a swamp.


31 posted on 03/20/2014 7:59:41 PM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy (WoT News: Rantburg.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I’m already Bushed.


32 posted on 03/20/2014 7:59:47 PM PDT by stevem
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: yefragetuwrabrumuy

Bush would be like another Romney.


33 posted on 03/20/2014 8:03:28 PM PDT by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God Bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Sabato hasn’t been right in years. Jeb Bush will never be president.


34 posted on 03/20/2014 8:12:39 PM PDT by txrefugee
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Bush should take his wetback wife and move to Mexico!


35 posted on 03/20/2014 8:17:56 PM PDT by dalereed
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

A feeble plant of a story. Jebs political career will crash and burn at the hands of the right. No more stinking, filthy political “dynasties”. We need true conservatives, not true elite tools.


36 posted on 03/20/2014 8:17:59 PM PDT by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

I’ve been waiting for decades for a bush vs clinton rematch. NOOOOOOTTTT!!!!


37 posted on 03/20/2014 8:19:37 PM PDT by dsrtsage (One half of all people have below average IQ. In the US the number is 54%)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

If Jebbie and Christie both run, they’ll split the RINO vote and prevent either one from running the Romney strategy (split the conservatives, win with 1/3 of the vote.)


38 posted on 03/20/2014 8:22:39 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I think I’m gonna be sick. These Damn family dynasties MUST stop! I’m sick to death of them all! Stay home Jeb, you don’t have a chance in hell.


39 posted on 03/20/2014 8:24:45 PM PDT by ResisTyr ("Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God " ~Thomas Jefferson)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I love reading fiction!

Jeb? bwhahahahah


40 posted on 03/20/2014 8:27:43 PM PDT by AllAmericanGirl44
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-65 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson