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Nate Silver of 538: GOP Has 60% Chance Of Taking Senate in 2014
Real Clear Politics ^ | March 23, 2014 | Nate Silver

Posted on 03/23/2014 2:28:33 PM PDT by Din Maker

ESPN's FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver examines the state of the 2014 Senate races. Silver predicts the Republican party has a 60% chance to take the Senate in 2014. Silver also says there is a 30% chance that the GOP can "win big."

Silver says the Republican party has a 45% shot to take a Senate seat in Michigan, a 35% chance in Colorado and 30% for a seat in Iowa.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2014midterms; senateraces
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Watch the Video. It covers a few more Senate Races than the article. This Statistic guru, who predicted all 50 States correctly in 2012, predicts the GOP will get the needed 6 Senate Seats for "control" and that the GOP could get a "REALLY BIG WIN".
1 posted on 03/23/2014 2:28:33 PM PDT by Din Maker
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To: Din Maker

Nate may be a leftist, but he cares more about getting the numbers right than in pushing a political agenda, so this is a good sign.


2 posted on 03/23/2014 2:38:47 PM PDT by Vision Thing (obama wants his suicidal worshipers to become suicidal bombers.)
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To: Din Maker

Well if anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the GOP-e can.


3 posted on 03/23/2014 2:39:46 PM PDT by mountn man (The Pleasure You Get From Life Is Equal To The Attitude You Put Into It)
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To: Din Maker

That’s all well and good. I hope we see some changes. I am skeptical.


4 posted on 03/23/2014 2:42:36 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters for Freedom and Rededication to the Principles of the U.S. Constitution)
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To: Din Maker

GOP should get 9 seats from looking at the map IMO.


5 posted on 03/23/2014 2:42:40 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: 3Fingas

Not skeptical of the prediction, just skeptical the GOP-E will do anything differently even if they win control of the Senate.


6 posted on 03/23/2014 2:43:31 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters for Freedom and Rededication to the Principles of the U.S. Constitution)
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To: Din Maker

I tend to agree with him.


7 posted on 03/23/2014 2:45:15 PM PDT by Free Vulcan (Vote Republican! You can vote Democrat when you're dead...)
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To: 3Fingas

They need 60 seats for cloture to pass legislation, if they follow traditional rules. Ain’t gonna happen.


8 posted on 03/23/2014 2:45:23 PM PDT by research99
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To: mountn man
Well if anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the GOP-e can.

I am not sure even these toads can, cases in point. The FLA win was huge IMHO, even with a fake libertarian and what they gin up, they still wouldn't win, which makes me wonder did he win with more like 10% than 1.6%. But the Win in PA via the write in? Katie bar the door, if that isn't an indication that people are pissed off on steroids I don't know what is. Maybe Bevin should do a write-in in KY !

9 posted on 03/23/2014 2:48:25 PM PDT by taildragger (The E-GOP won't know what hit them, The Party of Reagan is almost here, hang tight folks....)
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To: Din Maker
Aint it about time for the toe sucker to make his grand re entrance?
10 posted on 03/23/2014 2:50:16 PM PDT by crz
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To: 3Fingas
Not skeptical of the prediction, just skeptical the GOP-E will do anything differently even if they win control of the Senate.

It's prolly is the sum of all fears here in FR, and why I think it's one of the reasons why McConnell needs to be beaten in the primary and we have a Bevin win. It might send a signal to Obama that it won't be all comity and roses as one of our fire-brands would run for Majority Leader IMHO...

11 posted on 03/23/2014 2:51:06 PM PDT by taildragger (The E-GOP won't know what hit them, The Party of Reagan is almost here, hang tight folks....)
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To: mountn man

Well if anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the GOP-e can.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I wish we could go one day here on Free Republic without someone posting that tired, old, worn out sh*t.


12 posted on 03/23/2014 2:51:22 PM PDT by Din Maker (Rand Paul, Rick Perry endorse Mitch McConnell over Bevin. Neither will ever get my vote in 2016.)
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To: research99

The GOPe will probably decide to do powersharing....and sit back like the losers and grifters they are.


13 posted on 03/23/2014 2:52:20 PM PDT by Aria ( 2008 & 2012 weren't elections - they were coup d'etats.)
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To: LongWayHome

GOP should get 9 seats from looking at the map IMO.
_____________________________________________________________

I predicted a pick up of 9 seats a few days ago: AK, AR, CO, LA, MT, MI, NC, SD and WV. Are those the 9 you see the GOP picking up?


14 posted on 03/23/2014 2:54:06 PM PDT by Din Maker (Rand Paul, Rick Perry endorse Mitch McConnell over Bevin. Neither will ever get my vote in 2016.)
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To: Din Maker

Nate isn’t taking into consideration the MASSIVE and I mean MASSIVE voter fraud the left will do in November..Dems count on that to win


15 posted on 03/23/2014 2:55:14 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Din Maker

“I wish we could go one day here on Free Republic without someone posting that tired, old, worn out sh*t.”

You’ve been registered on FR for 6 months?

How about the rest of us who heard this longer than you?


16 posted on 03/23/2014 2:55:22 PM PDT by max americana (fired liberals in our company last election, and I laughed while they cried (true story))
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To: research99

True, but even a simple majority means Harry Reid is no longer Majority Leader.


17 posted on 03/23/2014 2:55:45 PM PDT by MCF
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To: crz

Aint it about time for the toe sucker to make his grand re entrance?
_________________________________________________________________________________________

Wow! I clean forgot about Dick Morris? Where is he? Did he drop off the planet or die or what?


18 posted on 03/23/2014 2:55:57 PM PDT by Din Maker (Rand Paul, Rick Perry endorse Mitch McConnell over Bevin. Neither will ever get my vote in 2016.)
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To: MCF

Harry Reid is only part of the problem.

67 seats is needed to convict in an impeachment trial.


19 posted on 03/23/2014 2:59:20 PM PDT by research99
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Nate isn’t taking into consideration the MASSIVE and I mean MASSIVE voter fraud the left will do in November
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Well, I’m new to FR, but, most political websites give some credence to what you said above. However, no one has ever produced proof that there is “MASSIVE” voter fraud. If you have proof; lay it on us. I mean, old man, Mayor Daley of Chicago, has been dead a long time.


20 posted on 03/23/2014 2:59:26 PM PDT by Din Maker (Rand Paul, Rick Perry endorse Mitch McConnell over Bevin. Neither will ever get my vote in 2016.)
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To: Din Maker

Only problem is there are entirely too many GOP-e’s in the Senate. The 17th amendment truly screwed this country.


21 posted on 03/23/2014 2:59:53 PM PDT by Ghost of SVR4 (So many are so hopelessly dependent on the government that they will fight to protect it.)
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To: max americana

I dunno...... But, I wish to hell they would come up with something new.


22 posted on 03/23/2014 3:00:36 PM PDT by Din Maker (Rand Paul, Rick Perry endorse Mitch McConnell over Bevin. Neither will ever get my vote in 2016.)
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To: Din Maker
I mean, old man, Mayor Daley of Chicago, has been dead a long time.

And he is still voting Democrat

23 posted on 03/23/2014 3:01:49 PM PDT by Teacher317 (We have now sunk to a depth at which restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men)
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To: Din Maker; All
Thank you for referencing that article Din Maker. Please bear in mind that the following critique is directed at the article and not at you.

I think that Nate Silver has a good head on his shoulders.

However ...

I don't think that Silver has his sights for the Senate aimed high enough because he may not be aware of the following. If patriots and former Obama supporters can win 2/3 Democratic and Republican conservative majorities in each House of Congress in the midterm elections, then Congress will be positioned as follows.

Congress will have the power, under the Constitution's Clause 2 of Section 7 of Article I, to override presidential vetoes. This means that Congress would be able to repeal constitutionally indefensible Obamacare Democratcare, for example, without Obama's signature.

24 posted on 03/23/2014 3:02:55 PM PDT by Amendment10
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To: research99
“They need 60 seats for cloture to pass legislation, if they follow traditional rules. Ain’t gonna happen.”

We can all dream that McConnell will grow a pair of seeds and rule with an iron fist like Dirty Harry.

25 posted on 03/23/2014 3:02:58 PM PDT by HenpeckedCon (What pi$$es me off the most is that POS commie will get a State Funeral!)
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To: Teacher317

I really did LOL at that. That was a good one.


26 posted on 03/23/2014 3:03:02 PM PDT by Din Maker (Rand Paul, Rick Perry endorse Mitch McConnell over Bevin. Neither will ever get my vote in 2016.)
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To: Din Maker

There’s the woman in Ohio who was let go even after she confessed to voting 8 times for Obama..EIGHT..and the left adores her..of course there is going to be fraud in November, there always is, that is why Dems are so against Voter ID


27 posted on 03/23/2014 3:04:10 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: research99

We don’t want impeachment! That would put Biden in as President and give him an advantage in the 2016 election.


28 posted on 03/23/2014 3:04:47 PM PDT by MCF
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To: HenpeckedCon

We can all dream that McConnell will grow a pair of seeds and rule with an iron fist like Dirty Harry.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Or, we can give and work our assess off so Mitch won’t be in the Senate in January 2015 to be elected the SML.


29 posted on 03/23/2014 3:05:59 PM PDT by Din Maker (Rand Paul, Rick Perry endorse Mitch McConnell over Bevin. Neither will ever get my vote in 2016.)
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To: Din Maker
Well, I’m new to FR, but, most political websites give some credence to what you said above. However, no one has ever produced proof that there is “MASSIVE” voter fraud. If you have proof; lay it on us.

As you note, the direct evidence is scarce... but with good reason. The Left, the MSM, the Dem machine, etc all have a heavily vested-interest in keeping it a secret. Literally trillions of dollars are on the line.

However, the anecdotal evidence is pretty massive on its own:
EVERY effort to clean up voter rolls: opposed by Dems
EVERY effort to ensure that only US citizens vote: opposed by Dems
EVERY time the number of votes in a district exceeds the actual number of registered voters (ie, a 100+% turnout): it is ALWAYS in a 90+% Dem district (and these are usually areas where you can't get a 10% turnout for free smoke-detectors).
EVERY time an election is close, the heavily Dem districts get reported last, and are almost always sufficient to turn the result into a Dem win, even if 90% of the other districts and counties vote GOP.

"It ain't rocket surgery"

30 posted on 03/23/2014 3:11:56 PM PDT by Teacher317 (We have now sunk to a depth at which restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men)
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To: Din Maker

After the last election, I think he crawled into a hole to hide.


31 posted on 03/23/2014 3:31:09 PM PDT by crz
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To: Din Maker

In Nov. 2010, Silver predicted the GOP would take 54 seats (the GOP took 63), so if he’s predicting this early on, it may be even worse for the Rats.

Don’t get complacent! The Obama machine will do everything in its power to GOTV.


32 posted on 03/23/2014 3:41:57 PM PDT by randita
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To: Din Maker

Even if the GOP gets the senate they will not do a thing with it. The dems will continue to set the agenda.


33 posted on 03/23/2014 3:48:22 PM PDT by HChampagne
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To: Din Maker

It’s all good and well for the GOP to take over the Senate.

But, more importantly, will there be any difference after they take over or will it be business as usual?


34 posted on 03/23/2014 3:50:09 PM PDT by 353FMG
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To: 353FMG

“Meet the new boss, Same as the old boss.”


35 posted on 03/23/2014 3:50:49 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Din Maker

About a 90% chance the GOP screws it all up.


36 posted on 03/23/2014 3:51:50 PM PDT by vmivol00 (I won't be reconstructed.)
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To: MCF

I know you’re not kidding. but Biden? As president? Didn’t he try for the primaries in 04 or 08? Besides, all (Biden’s) stupidity aside, he is up to his neck in all this stuff. He goes, too.

Maybe Boehner *wouldn’t* be so bad, temporarily. He’s a disaster as Speaker.


37 posted on 03/23/2014 3:52:35 PM PDT by KGeorge (Till we're together again, Gypsy girl. May 28, 1998- June 3, 2013)
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To: Free Vulcan

The guy got every state correct in 2012. Of course, before the vote everyone here thought he was an idiot. Clearly he knows what he’s doing.


38 posted on 03/23/2014 3:58:28 PM PDT by bigdaddy45
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Then how did the Dems suffer a crushing defeat in the midterms in 2010?


39 posted on 03/23/2014 3:59:20 PM PDT by bigdaddy45
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To: Din Maker
"Well if anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the GOP-e can."

I wish we could go one day here on Free Republic without someone posting that tired, old, worn out sh*t.

Sorry about your luck, but the truth is never tired, old, or worn out.

40 posted on 03/23/2014 4:12:57 PM PDT by Lazamataz (Early 2009 to 7/21/2013 - RIP my little girl Cathy. You were the best cat ever. You will be missed.)
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To: Lazamataz

It’s true that the sun comes up in the East every morning. That is TRUTH. Would you like me to post that every day?


41 posted on 03/23/2014 4:17:00 PM PDT by Din Maker (Rand Paul, Rick Perry endorse Mitch McConnell over Bevin. Neither will ever get my vote in 2016.)
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To: Din Maker

Those are the 9 states, plus a 50/50 chance of picking up NH for number 10.


42 posted on 03/23/2014 4:32:08 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: Din Maker

What I been saying all along. 60-40


43 posted on 03/23/2014 4:46:00 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: Vision Thing

EXACTLY. Denying facts because you don’t like the messenger is, well . . . stupid.

He was spot on the last 4 cycles and works to get it correct regardless of his politics.


44 posted on 03/23/2014 4:47:45 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: research99

They should just change the rules like the dems did. I sick of the republicans playing by Marquess de Queensberry rules and the dems being no-holds-barred. We know dems are beta males and feminazis, but what are republicans if they can’t deal with that? I will tell you — losers.


45 posted on 03/23/2014 4:49:53 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters for Freedom and Rededication to the Principles of the U.S. Constitution)
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To: Din Maker
It’s true that the sun comes up in the East every morning. That is TRUTH. Would you like me to post that every day?

If this was a solar observation forum, it would be appropriate.

We are a political forum, so get over yourself.

46 posted on 03/23/2014 5:16:12 PM PDT by Lazamataz (Early 2009 to 7/21/2013 - RIP my little girl Cathy. You were the best cat ever. You will be missed.)
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To: KGeorge

Well if Obama’s impeached the vice-president takes over, and that’s Biden.


47 posted on 03/23/2014 6:14:51 PM PDT by MCF
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To: Din Maker

A 60% chance the GOP can take the senate is a good chance the party will shoot itself in the foot and fail to take it, or if the party does get a majority in the senate, it will shoot itself in the foot and not make any progress, or should I say “reversal of the progress” made by the left while they held unfilibusterable power.

Yes, I know that is a non-word...


48 posted on 03/23/2014 6:31:25 PM PDT by Blue Collar Christian (Vote Democrat. Once you're OK with killing babies the rest is easy. <BCC><)
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To: max americana; Din Maker
How about the rest of us who heard this longer than you?

How about some who have been here longer than the both of you x 2?

Some posters really need to start adding something of value to the threads for a change

Sulking thumb-suckers can take their posts over to DU. Maybe they'll cheer somebody up over there.


49 posted on 03/23/2014 7:56:03 PM PDT by Agamemnon (Darwinism is the glue that holds liberalism together)
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To: MCF

Right. But that necessitates making his term short & silly.


50 posted on 03/23/2014 7:58:20 PM PDT by KGeorge (Till we're together again, Gypsy girl. May 28, 1998- June 3, 2013)
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