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The tiny Estonian town that could spell the end of NATO
The Week ^ | 3/27/2014 | By Michael Ben-Gad

Posted on 03/27/2014 3:54:03 PM PDT by Mariner

Will Putin call NATO's bluff?

The Russian invasion and rapid absorption of the Crimean peninsula might seem like the spark ready to ignite a new Cold War. In fact, given the feeble Western response so far, the more likely outcome is not the division of Europe once more between NATO's Western alliance and a neo-Soviet Russia, but rather the fracturing and ultimate demise of NATO and the Western alliance itself.

Of course, no one expects the West to use military force to protect Ukrainian territory, despite the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in which Russia, the U.S., and the U.K. guaranteed Ukrainian sovereignty in exchange for its relinquishing the nuclear weapons that remained on its territory after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yet even the Russians now seem surprised, indeed somewhat amused, by how disunited and weak the Western response has been. So what comes next?

Having demonstrated to the Ukrainians with his Crimean excursion the emptiness of Western guarantees...

(Excerpt) Read more at theweek.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: estonia; moldova; nato; obama; putin; ukraine
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This is an interesting scenario and begs the question: Should the US go to war with Russia over a town in Estonia that is nearly all Russian?
1 posted on 03/27/2014 3:54:03 PM PDT by Mariner
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To: Mariner
Should the US go to war with Russia over a town in Estonia that is nearly all Russian?

Yup.

2 posted on 03/27/2014 3:57:01 PM PDT by VeniVidiVici (Play the 'Knockout Game' with someone owning a 9mm and you get what you deserve)
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To: Mariner

I wouldn’t get too carried away. NATO’s a way for Europe to leech off Uncle Sam’s defense dime. What’s the alternative? They’re gonna up their defense spending to match Russia’s build-up? In an alternate universe, maybe...


3 posted on 03/27/2014 3:57:30 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: VeniVidiVici

How many Americans would answer the question affirmatively?


4 posted on 03/27/2014 3:59:43 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Mariner

What is going to be interesting is when Putin annexes part of Poland to protect ethnic Russians there.


5 posted on 03/27/2014 4:01:30 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: VeniVidiVici

“Should the US go to war with Russia over a town in Estonia that is nearly all Russian? “
_________________________________________________
NOPE.....I am sure you were being sarcastic.


6 posted on 03/27/2014 4:02:28 PM PDT by AlexW
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To: VeniVidiVici

Another big question is whether Putin thinks he can get away with it, for if he thinks he can he’ll do it for sure.


7 posted on 03/27/2014 4:02:37 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Mariner

With Obama at the helm, Putin could invade Alaska without consequence


8 posted on 03/27/2014 4:04:28 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: AlexW
".I am sure you were being sarcastic"

No, I was not.

It's a question the American people ought to be studying on right now. We may be faced with a choice to walk away from NATO or expel Russians from Estonia.

It COULD happen. Putin smells blood in the water and I can't see him not being anxious to take another bite.

9 posted on 03/27/2014 4:05:06 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Mariner
1994 Budapest Memorandum in which Russia, the U.S., and the U.K. guaranteed
Ukrainian sovereignty in exchange for its relinquishing the nuclear weapons

It' high time the EU stands up off their lazy socialist butts to do something.
It's their turn to step up to the plate.

And Obama can rot in hell for the passive weakness he's shown.
Homosexual, Cocaine using, Drunk Bastard. A Pot head in the WH. how grand.

10 posted on 03/27/2014 4:09:08 PM PDT by MaxMax (Pay Attention and you'll be pissed off too! FIRE BOEHNER, NOW!)
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To: Mariner

Send them some muzzie “immigrants”.


11 posted on 03/27/2014 4:11:26 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: MaxMax

You and I are follow LHA sailors.


12 posted on 03/27/2014 4:11:43 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: MaxMax
It' high time the EU stands up off their lazy socialist butts to do something.

If only we had some real leaders...

Pope and Reagan photo pope-and-reagan-733624.jpg

13 posted on 03/27/2014 4:14:12 PM PDT by FatherofFive (Islam is evil and must be eradicated)
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To: Viennacon

The Alaskans might disagree with you on that.


14 posted on 03/27/2014 4:14:13 PM PDT by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: Mariner

Yes.


15 posted on 03/27/2014 4:14:14 PM PDT by kabar
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To: MaxMax
It's high time the EU stands up off their lazy socialist butts to do something.

I thought the EU bent over to get things done.

16 posted on 03/27/2014 4:15:23 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (Join the Democrats, it's not Fascism when WE do it, and the Constitution and law mean what WE say.)
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To: Mariner
We may be faced with a choice to walk away from NATO or expel Russians from Estonia.

There's really no need for US ground forces to get involved. We'd shoot down anything the Russians sent up, and recreate the highway of death for Russian ground forces in Estonia, with the help of Baltic ground forces. In a way, it would be similar to the Korean and Vietnam Wars, where Russian pilots went up against US pilots over the skies of Korea and Vietnam. Nobody's going to use nukes. We wouldn't and the Russians certainly wouldn't, not over a failed invasion of Estonia, any more than Stalin used nukes while we were fighting in Korea.

17 posted on 03/27/2014 4:15:49 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: MaxMax
It' high time the EU stands up off their lazy socialist butts to do something. It's their turn to step up to the plate.

I hope you're not holding your breath.

For the first time in a long time, they're realizing what it actually means when they get their wish for a Euroweenie-type U.S. president. Now they're whining for our natural gas & oil. Screw 'em, or at the very least, charge 'em out the wazzoo.

18 posted on 03/27/2014 4:18:15 PM PDT by workerbee (The President of the United States is DOMESTIC ENEMY #1!)
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To: Zhang Fei
"There's really no need for US ground forces to get involved"

And just what EU nation will commit troops and equipment for this endeavor without a couple of US Armored Brigades alongside?

I suggest none would.

19 posted on 03/27/2014 4:19:26 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: DuncanWaring

Didn’t 20000 of them just vote to secede on a petition?


20 posted on 03/27/2014 4:20:20 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Mariner
It's a question the American people ought to be studying on right now. We may be faced with a choice to walk away from NATO or expel Russians from Estonia.

Article 5 of the NATO Washington Agreement:

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

Article 5 is at the basis of a fundamental principle of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. It provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked. This is the principle of collective defense.

If the US "walks away" from NATO, we are finished. You can expect China to go after Taiwan. Japan will no longer be able to depend on the US nuclear umbrella nor will South Korea be safe.

We had no problem with Article 5 during the Cold War. Why would we back down now?

21 posted on 03/27/2014 4:22:07 PM PDT by kabar
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To: Mariner

“It COULD happen. Putin smells blood in the water”
_______________________________________________________
The problem is that the territories that are being disputed were part of the SSR, unlike the other countries of Communist dominated central Europe, such as Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, etc.


22 posted on 03/27/2014 4:23:23 PM PDT by AlexW
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To: Mariner

The worlds a bitch when your leader is a bitch.
What are we going to do in that circumstance?
Unleash the nukes? Not happening.

Deploy our armored divisions?
Nope, now only deployed at 15% of our 1989 troop levels, and we have closed hundreds of bases and radar stations.
I believe that we have 40,000 or so troops left in Germany but a large number of that are not combat troops.
The average EU country spends 1.7% of GNP on defense and they are in the middle of military drawdowns.
England does have about 20,000 troops left in Europe.

War? Hardly, unless you are going to use strategic nukes.


23 posted on 03/27/2014 4:25:17 PM PDT by bill1952 (taxes don't hurt the rich, they keep YOU from becoming rich.)
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To: bill1952

And an air war in the Ukraine could be a potential disaster.
Russian air power isn’t exactly 3rd world status.


24 posted on 03/27/2014 4:27:43 PM PDT by bill1952 (taxes don't hurt the rich, they keep YOU from becoming rich.)
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To: Mariner

Let the European Union handle it. I am so sick of the “In case of war call the US” attitude.


25 posted on 03/27/2014 4:28:18 PM PDT by MCF
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To: kabar
"We had no problem with Article 5 during the Cold War. Why would we back down now? "

I'm not saying we should and I would advocate for existential war to honor the NATO treaty...but I think I'm part of a very small minority.

It would be a very, very tough sell politically and the POTUS that gave the order could well find himself impeached.

I believe the essential issue to be that NATO was over-extended when Russia was weak and none of the Neo Cons involved ever stopped to ask the question: Would we really defend such a country at crunch time against a nuclear power?

26 posted on 03/27/2014 4:29:02 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Mariner
And just what EU nation will commit troops and equipment for this endeavor without a couple of US Armored Brigades alongside? I suggest none would.

The Baltics would. They're fighting for their own land. And if they don't, that's their problem. This is gonna be a lot like Afghanistan. We will destroy their air defense systems along the border, swat their aircraft from the sky and then destroy Russian units in Estonia with by having Estonian ground units point them out.

27 posted on 03/27/2014 4:30:06 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Viennacon

“Didn’t 20000 of them just vote to secede on a petition?”
________________________________________________________
Few Americans know that Alaska was Russian, and that it was bought from Russia for less then 8 million bucks.


28 posted on 03/27/2014 4:31:10 PM PDT by AlexW
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To: Mariner
Remember, many in the West and US wanted to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO.

Sheer folly. And Putin is exposing it.

29 posted on 03/27/2014 4:31:15 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Mariner

We should inform the EU we will commit our resources proportionally as any other NATO country. The days they enjoyed the luxury of their socialism and neglected their duty to their own security are done.


30 posted on 03/27/2014 4:34:10 PM PDT by griswold3 ("Pray for Obama. Psalm 109:8".)
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To: Viennacon

Well ... it rightfully belonged to Russia at one time, so shouldn’t Obama return it to its rightful owner? ... :-) ...


31 posted on 03/27/2014 4:35:56 PM PDT by Star Traveler (Remember to keep the Messiah of Israel in the One-World Government that we look forward to coming)
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To: Viennacon

Possibly.

I personally do not know.


32 posted on 03/27/2014 4:37:40 PM PDT by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: Mariner
The Russians are well aware of NATO Treaty obligations. The real question you should be asking is whether Russia would risk a nuclear war for a small city in Estonia?

I believe the essential issue to be that NATO was over-extended when Russia was weak and none of the Neo Cons involved ever stopped to ask the question: Would we really defend such a country at crunch time against a nuclear power?

Absolute nonsense. NATO is not over-extended. It can meet any Russian capability up to and including a nuclear one. We had plenty of small countries before NATO was expanded. And the test of any alliance is that the other side must believe in your intention to act if provoked. NATO needs to make it very clear to the Russians that any attack against a treaty member is an attack against all. There should be no room for any miscalculation. We must respond against any attack period in both word and deed. There should be no doubting our resolve. Otherwise, we will have a war.

33 posted on 03/27/2014 4:39:17 PM PDT by kabar
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To: Mariner

This is an excellent article which should be read in its entirety. NATO has reduced itself to a paper tiger as America is nearing bankruptcy and can no longer carry Europe’s military burden. As our strength wanes, Russia and China are looking for opportunities while our nervous allies are beginning to look elsewhere for safety. I expect that NATO will dissolve along with the will of its members.


34 posted on 03/27/2014 4:40:19 PM PDT by Always A Marine
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To: VeniVidiVici

Either that or break up the alliance. Let Russia gobble up Ukraine and Belarus all they like. But a NATO member? Either keep your commitment, or quit.


35 posted on 03/27/2014 4:40:20 PM PDT by DesScorp
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To: griswold3

Article 5 was implemented only once—when the US was attacked on 9/11. It is the reason why NATO was/is involved in Afghanistan.


36 posted on 03/27/2014 4:41:35 PM PDT by kabar
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To: VeniVidiVici

We’re sending you to the front lines of that fight pal.


37 posted on 03/27/2014 4:42:14 PM PDT by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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To: mac_truck

Who’s “we?” You’re going to send him to fight for the Russians on your behalf?


38 posted on 03/27/2014 4:43:34 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: Mariner

“Let the European Union handle it.”
____________________________________________________
The logical solution would be for elections to be held in each disputed territory. two choices, go with Russia, or go it alone.
I know...fat chance.


39 posted on 03/27/2014 4:45:32 PM PDT by AlexW
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To: Mariner

European freeloaders must assume responsibility for their own defense. Americans are not willing to shoulder the burden for Europe any longer. Its time the Continent grew up. And if it isn’t?

It will have to live with Russia. That’s a fact of life.


40 posted on 03/27/2014 4:50:28 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: kabar
"We must respond against any attack period in both word and deed. There should be no doubting our resolve. "

You don't think the Congress and the American People are going to get a vote in that?

It's one thing for the professionals to talk of the essential need to honor the treaty but it's a whole nuther ballgame when it comes to an actual fight.

I thing it unlikely Congress would quthorize military force to protect Estonia. Very unlikely.

41 posted on 03/27/2014 4:52:47 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: VeniVidiVici

No. We have no business fighting over Narva than we have over Crimea. What strategic interest do we have there? None as far as I can see.


42 posted on 03/27/2014 4:53:20 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: AlexW

Few Americans even know who the VP is.


43 posted on 03/27/2014 5:00:18 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Always A Marine
" I expect that NATO will dissolve along with the will of its members."

I agree, when US weakness is combined with European weakness, NATO will wither on the vine and will soon be little more than a parlor joke.

Sadly. It was once the bulwark of civilization.

44 posted on 03/27/2014 5:03:24 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Mariner

We have been talking about Narva for weeks here. Looks like somebody is reading FR. LOL.


45 posted on 03/27/2014 5:04:15 PM PDT by lodi90
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To: VeniVidiVici
"Yup."

You have fun with that.

46 posted on 03/27/2014 5:13:54 PM PDT by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
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To: Mariner
This is an interesting scenario and begs the question: Should the US go to war with Russia over a town in Estonia that is nearly all Russian?

I bet "peace thru strength" will not be the answer by more than a few here. And that peace thru retreat and appeasement will be the answer.

Besides Estonia is way over there, they will say.

47 posted on 03/27/2014 5:15:43 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: Mariner

This could be fun, ...for undertakers.


48 posted on 03/27/2014 5:17:04 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (Join the Democrats, it's not Fascism when WE do it, and the Constitution and law mean what WE say.)
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To: FreeReign

A lot of people would say this is exactly why NATO should not have been expanded eastward. We find ourselves on the hook defending tiny countries no one cares about. The original NATO made sense. The new one doesn’t.


49 posted on 03/27/2014 5:18:22 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Viennacon

the vast majority of Americans are either too stoned or drunk to read the question, let alone know that estonia was a country or where it was.

we’ve got a nation of drooling half wits demanding the competent 20% pay for everything they need


50 posted on 03/27/2014 5:21:41 PM PDT by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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