Skip to comments.PPP: Race Still Looks Headed for Runoff (NC Senate)
Posted on 04/11/2014 5:35:12 AM PDT by cotton1706
PPP released their monthly look at the North Carolina Senate race two days ago. The poll isnt so good for Speaker Thom Tillis. Not only does Tillis lead Brannon by a narrower margin than in other polls, he also performs the worst against Senator Hagan, quashing his electability argument. We must reiterate that this is PPPs interpretation of the race, and at the end of this post well average all of the polls we have to get a better indicator as to where the real numbers are. For now, though, lets take a look at how PPP sees things:
General election Numbers in parentheses indicate change in Republican margin from last poll
44% Harris, 40% Hagan (+4) 43% Grant, 39% Hagan (+5) 42% Brannon, 40% Hagan (+2) 43% Alexander, 42% Hagan (-1) 42% Bradshaw, 41% Hagan (+1) 41% Kryn, 40% Hagan (+3) 41% Hagan, 41% Snyder (-1) 43% Hagan, 41% Tillis (no change)
According to PPP, Harris and Grant are the most electable while Tillis is last in that category, though that might be because of the thousands of dollars in ads being spent against him. This is another great poll for Mark Harris. His margin here is identical to his margin against Hagan in the SurveyUSA poll.
Once again, Tilliss relative weakness is a function of his being better known. Should one of these other candidates receive the nomination, they will have their own negatives and voters will find reasons to dislike them. Tilliss performance against Hagan does serve as a talking point for his opponents, though.
(Excerpt) Read more at politicsnc.com ...
They've been working incessantly to prevent Brannon from getting the nomination, because that means an actual conservative will be sitting in a North Carolina Senate seat, unlike Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr.
The Huckster never was our friend. I learned that when he so willingly played Judas Goat to pull McCain over the finish line during the 2008 primaries.
All I can say is in the Triad (Winston Salem, Greensboro, High Point) area, I have seen exactly ONE Mark Harris sign, ZERO Tillis signs and about 300 Brannon signs. Your mileage may vary.
“All I can say is in the Triad (Winston Salem, Greensboro, High Point) area, I have seen exactly ONE Mark Harris sign, ZERO Tillis signs and about 300 Brannon signs. Your mileage may vary.”
That is very good to hear. I’m in MA so I don’t know what the feel is like on the ground there. I certainly hope that there’s a runoff with Brannon and Tillis at the top and Brannon then beats Tillis. So we don’t end up with another Lindsey Graham in the Senate.
“This is probably what the Establishment is working for.
They’ve been working incessantly to prevent Brannon from getting the nomination, because that means an actual conservative will be sitting in a North Carolina Senate seat”
This is something Brannon should use during his campaign. The establishment country club GOP Karl Rovers are against him. Might help him out a bit.
Brannon seems very confident. I think his groundgame can only be matched by Tillis. The others will get a lower percentage than they’ve polled on the actual voting day.
“Brannon seems very confident. I think his groundgame can only be matched by Tillis. The others will get a lower percentage than theyve polled on the actual voting day.”
I certainly hope you’re right!
It sure seems like the author of this article is 1) Pushing for Mark Harris, and 2) Pushing for Tillis.
He/She must really dislike a Constitutionalist?
To be fair Mr. Harris (from what I’ve seen I like), but NOT NEARLY as much as Greg Brannon.
“To be fair Mr. Harris (from what Ive seen I like), but NOT NEARLY as much as Greg Brannon.”
Harris may be a good candidate. But I know what would happen if the runoff was between Tillis and Harris: Tillis would be the nominee. So I’m naturally suspicious of games being played, especially when they involve Huckabee, who is a McConnell stand-in. This added to what I believe was a trumped up, set-up jury trial, to the same effect, Tillis as the nominee and another McConnellite in the Senate.
I’d really like to see Greg Brannon in the Senate.