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ANALYSIS: Civil War Unlikely as Kiev Junta Loses Support
RIANovosti ^ | 4-14-2014 | Daria Chernyshova

Posted on 04/14/2014 3:05:18 PM PDT by tcrlaf

Civil war in Ukraine is unlikely as Kiev’s junta is quickly losing support, according to Jon Hellevig, co-author of the book “Putin’s New Russia."

“I don't think there will be any civil war,” Hellevig, a managing partner at the Moscow-based Awara Group, told RIA Novosti.

“The Russian people of eastern and southern parts of present-day Ukraine will take over their local governments soon, without large-scale conflict,” said Hellevig, a longtime observer of Russia's development.

Pro-federalization protesters in Ukraine’s eastern city of Slaviansk ignored a Monday deadline by the central regime to lay down arms.

(Excerpt) Read more at en.ria.ru ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Russia
KEYWORDS: agitprop; civilwar; crimea; propaganda; putinsbuttboys; russia; ukraine
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Interesting analysis.

Other key points:

"The junta is desperate. They are losing support fast. In this situation, they tried to save themselves by trying to make themselves stronger than they really are,” Hellevig said."

“Ukraine was ‘lost’ to the Eurasian Union when the Maidan overthrew Yanukovych in their coup. The plan now is to win at least half of it back,” he said."

1 posted on 04/14/2014 3:05:18 PM PDT by tcrlaf
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To: tcrlaf

The takeaway is, I hope Romania and Poland are ready for a flood of Ukrainians across the border.


2 posted on 04/14/2014 3:06:35 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon
The takeaway is, I hope Romania and Poland are ready for a flood of Ukrainians across the border.

If the Poles and Romanians were smart they'd be worried about a flood of *Soviets* across their borders.Vlad clearly knows he's got the green light from President Flexible.But do the Poles or the Romanians know it?

3 posted on 04/14/2014 3:10:23 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Stalin Blamed The Kulaks,Obama Blames The Tea Party)
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To: All

The western leftists and progressives will gradually regroup behind old boy Putin, as long as he tones down his anti-gay rhetoric and stays away from pronouncements about deep faith and no global warming. The old alliances will redevelop if that becomes the case. And this fluffy press release is just one example.


4 posted on 04/14/2014 3:12:57 PM PDT by Peter ODonnell (It wasn't this cold before global warming)
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To: tcrlaf
¿«Junta»?

¡Ucrania no está en américa latina!

5 posted on 04/14/2014 3:17:31 PM PDT by x
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To: Gay State Conservative
Its easy to believe Obama has made it his secret goal to undo Reagan's crowning achievement.

The left is that bitter & vindictive.

6 posted on 04/14/2014 3:27:05 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: tcrlaf
Junta (/ˈhʊntə/ or /ˈdʒʌntə/) may refer to:

Governance:

Military-led government: Military junta (a government led by a committee of military leaders) The ruling council of a military dictatorship

Interesting wordsmithing?

7 posted on 04/14/2014 3:27:41 PM PDT by blackdog (There is no such thing as healing, only a balance between destructive and constructive forces.)
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To: tcrlaf

I wonder how much of a military the thugs in Kiev have left. 2/3s of the military that was stationed in Crimea abandoned Ukraine for Russia, to stay in Crimea. There have been reports that even more military have left for the other side with the eastern Ukraine unrest.


8 posted on 04/14/2014 3:31:37 PM PDT by grania
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To: tcrlaf
Hellevig is apparently a Finn for whom the term quisling might as well have been tailor-made. Here's a Hellewig article from 2006 that was published on the consistently pro-Russian and anti-American Center for Defense Information:
Anna Politkovskaya and the Self-Defense of Democracy
By Jon Hellevig
The writer is a Finnish lawyer who has lived in Moscow for 15 years. He has written the book Expressions and Interpretations (www.hellevig.ru) discussing Russia's social development from the viewpoint of philosophy and judicial philosophy. He is also the author of several books on the Russian tax and labor law.

The murder of Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya has once again induced a surge of anti-Russianism in Finland. Politicians, so-called researchers and media declare that Russian leaders masterminded the murder. Many people cautiously avoid these direct expressions, while being highly critical of the Russian government. Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja falls somewhere between the two groups, whereas Markku Kivinen from the University of Helsinki affiliated Aleksanteri Institute and MP Heidi Hautala clearly belong to the latter. It is obviously not in the interests of the Russian President to have a well known journalist killed (pointing this out would not be necessary, but for the continuous smear campaign against Russia). Based on information I received from Jukka Mallinen (translator of Politkovskaya's "Putin's Russia" into Finnish), there were no Russian government officials behind the murder. On the other hand, there is reason to put forward an alternative motive, which is quite possible -- that the murder was orchestrated by those wishing to create the kind of public opinion climate to compliment an anti-Russian agenda.

In our culture, we usually honor the memory of the deceased by saying positive things about the departed in times of sorrow. One would like to show the same respect for Politkovskaya as well. But I cannot keep quiet when I see how her memory has been turned into a weapon to hit the Russian people in a manner that hinders Russia's development.

Some are not happy with the opportunities that have been created during Putin's presidency.This includes the chance for many to now actively participate in a democratically run market economy. Upon the Soviet breakup, criminal elements took advantage of the weakness of a young nascent democracy by grabbing and stealing enormous possessions. Putin, courageously challenged the Mafia and oligarchs (often separated through a fine line drawn on water).

Thirsty for "revenge", some of the non-Russian former Soviet states egg on the EU to engage Russia in a confrontational manner They overlook that Russia and the Russian people were the biggest victims of communism. Led by Yeltsin, the Russian people freed themselves from that burden and encouraged this spirit to other former prisoner-countries. Due to Russia's large land mass encompassing troubled regions, Russia unwillingly gets drawn into dirty games. This predicament gets twisted into the claim of a revanchist Russia bullying small, defenseless others.
Imagine if the Germans had said that Germany was the biggest victim of Nazism. In the dictionary, there ought to be a picture of a Russian propagandist under the definition of "chutzpah". The Japanese share a similar self-pitying view of themselves as the biggest victims of the Japanese Empire. The difference, however, between the Japanese and the Russians is the Japanese are not now in the process of reconstituting their empire.
9 posted on 04/14/2014 3:32:00 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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Wikipedia
Rossiya Segodnya (official name: Federal State Unitary Enterprise International Information Agency Rossiya Segodnya; from Russian: Россия Сегодня, Russia Today) is the official Russian government owned international news agency founded by presidential decree on 9 December 2013. Rossiya Segodnya incorporates the former RIA Novosti news service and the Voice of Russia international radio service (formerly Radio Moscow).

Why Russia should sell weapons to Iran and Syria
RIA Novosti (Russian state-owned outlet) ^ | 08AUG07 |
Marianna Belenkaya, Russian Government
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1878354/posts


10 posted on 04/14/2014 3:35:54 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of corruption smelled around the planet.)
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To: Zhang Fei

You don’t know much about the Soviet Union. The Bolshevik party was dominated at the leadership level by non ethnic Russians like Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin.

The early USSR practiced legal discrimination against ethnic Russians in hiring and university admissions, similar to “affirmative action” laws in the USA, but much harsher.

It was only during WWII that the anti-Russian ideology was dropped out of necessity.


11 posted on 04/14/2014 3:44:44 PM PDT by Monmouth78
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To: tcrlaf

Oh our favorite Putin lover is back at it with another analysis of how the US is the great evil in the world and the Soviet Union (former known as Russia) is going to bring peace and security and harmony to all.

bleeeech


12 posted on 04/14/2014 3:46:56 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: blackdog
Interesting wordsmithing?

No one does wordsmithing like the Russians, and they do it in English, to boot. Best not to point it out too severely, though . . . they then try to change the subject to MSNBC.

13 posted on 04/14/2014 3:49:17 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: tcrlaf; All

Why is it you only seem interested in posting from Soviet sites???

“RIA Novosti is the largest news agency in Russia. Operating under the purview of the Russian Ministry of Communications and Mass Media, “


14 posted on 04/14/2014 3:49:23 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: Nifster; tcrlaf
Speaking of "wordsmithing," my favorite recent example is posting an article from Russia Today that stated "unconfirmed," and claiming that the story was "'confirmed'" by Russia Today.
15 posted on 04/14/2014 3:52:44 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

they have a way about them ;)


16 posted on 04/14/2014 3:56:09 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: tcrlaf

If the east becomes an independent country, it would definitely join the Russia led Customs Union.

People are alienated by Kiev’s bungling and mismanagement. You have in Kiev dominated by Western Ukrainians that have done as much as possible to make Moscow’s case it doesn’t represent the country. Which is also stupid.

Ask me again how killing fellow Ukrainians will keep the country together? It won’t. The disintegrative processes have now taken on a life of their own. They cannot be reversed through the use of force.

No one outside of Lvov supports the Maidan regime.


17 posted on 04/14/2014 3:57:10 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: familyop

I’ve read the interview with its chief Dmitry Kiselev. He sounds lucid to me. The problem is the West has subordinated basic European values and human rights to justify its geopolitical interests. Ukraine is falling apart and would be falling apart even without Russia.

Blaming Russia will not resolve the crisis.


18 posted on 04/14/2014 4:02:38 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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Comment #19 Removed by Moderator

To: Nifster

“Why is it you only seem interested in posting from Soviet sites???”

Soviet??
Care to join the rest of us in THIS Century?

That said, as I’ve stated before, with the lack of any real reporting on Western English Language sites, the only real “news”, in detail, about this is coming out of Russia.

The same could easily be said, though:
“NBC News is the largest news agency in America. Operating under the purview of the Obama Administration and biased Mass Media“

The reader is supposed to make their own determinations, in Today’s world.


20 posted on 04/14/2014 4:09:56 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Well, it is what the Sheeple voted for....)
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To: goldstategop

“Blaming Russia will not resolve the crisis.”

As I’ve said from the beginning, this is part of a much bigger geo-political game playing out.

Ukraine, already a haven of corruption with Civil unrest boiling just under the surface, is just latest victim, and easy to tilt.


21 posted on 04/14/2014 4:12:31 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Well, it is what the Sheeple voted for....)
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To: tcrlaf

Publishing propaganda from RIA Novosti without a disclaimer or sarcasm tag? I suppose that means you last check from Dzherzhinsky Square cleared the bank?


22 posted on 04/14/2014 4:15:09 PM PDT by MeganC (Support Matt Bevin to oust Mitch McConnell! https://mattbevin.com/)
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To: MeganC; Admin Moderator

No contribution, or even a discussion of the contents again?
Stop trolling, kid. And stop the multiple ID’s, as well. You are just embarrassing yourself.


23 posted on 04/14/2014 4:17:07 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Well, it is what the Sheeple voted for....)
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To: McGruff

Russians and Russian speakers voted in 1991 with their Western Ukrainian compatriots to create a free and independent Ukraine. 90% of the Ukrainian people voted for independence from the Soviet Union.

In many cases, the people leading nationalist movememnts in the twilight of the Soviet Union were Russian.

The problem is the unitary, Soviet-style, hyper-centralized Ukrainian state no longer meets any one’s aspirations or needs. Its a failed model that will have to be transformed into a federal state of its founding peoples in East and West alike.

Canada and Belgium, which are societies divided along linguistic lines have separatist movements but have survived because the federal state assures every one equal rights and a say in the running of the country. They could be of invaluable help to Ukraine in finding its way back to sanity.

This is the only viable way forward. The way to go here is to prevail on Kiev now to listen to reason - if only to preserve the country.


24 posted on 04/14/2014 4:17:22 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
No one outside of Lvov supports the Maidan regime.

I'm in Wyoming and I support the Ukrainian right to be free of filthy, smelly, uncultured, drunken Russian hooligans who abuse themselves to fantasies of raping their way across Europe like their grandfathers before them.

And only a выродок supports a выродок.

25 posted on 04/14/2014 4:22:18 PM PDT by MeganC (Support Matt Bevin to oust Mitch McConnell! https://mattbevin.com/)
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To: tcrlaf

Multiple ID’s? This is my only ID comrade.

As for trolling you, I’m just stating that you’re posting propaganda from the Russian government. That’s what RIA Novosti is, it’s the Russian government.

If you don’t like that then ask your friends in Moscow to divest the government from RIA Novosti and let me know about it. Until then I’ll happily taunt you for being the tool you are.


26 posted on 04/14/2014 4:27:02 PM PDT by MeganC (Support Matt Bevin to oust Mitch McConnell! https://mattbevin.com/)
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To: MeganC

“That’s what RIA Novosti is, it’s the Russian government.”

Of course it is. Which means what is init can be said to be the “Official” Russian line, as well.

It’s posted for discussion. If you don’t want to discuss it, and have nothing to add but trolling, you don’t have to post on it, ya’ know?


27 posted on 04/14/2014 4:32:19 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Well, it is what the Sheeple voted for....)
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To: skeeter

The problem with your theory is that Putin
* opposes abortion
* opposes homosexuality
* disavows global warming
* established a low, flat tax
* opposes the European Union
* undid the Gazprom oligarchy.


28 posted on 04/14/2014 4:33:33 PM PDT by dangus
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To: tcrlaf

No, you’re posting it as “ANALYSIS” when you’re now admitting it’s just propaganda from a propaganda ministry.

I was right and thanks for admitting it, comrade.


29 posted on 04/14/2014 4:35:21 PM PDT by MeganC (Support Matt Bevin to oust Mitch McConnell! https://mattbevin.com/)
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To: MeganC

The Kiev regime is a bunch of Nazi-loving leftist extremists for now. (This was NOT the intent of many of the Maidan protestors, who sought only to reverse anti-liberty laws and punish the snipers who killed their countrymen.)


30 posted on 04/14/2014 4:35:44 PM PDT by dangus
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To: tcrlaf
“The Russian people of eastern and southern parts of present-day Ukraine will take over their local governments soon, without large-scale conflict,” said Hellevig, a longtime observer of Russia's development.

After the majority Ukrainian population has been cleansed there will be room for more Russians.

31 posted on 04/14/2014 4:37:21 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Do The Math)
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To: Monmouth78
You don’t know much about the Soviet Union. The Bolshevik party was dominated at the leadership level by non ethnic Russians like Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin.

In any sense other than the Nazi one, they were Russians. They spoke Russian and identified as Russian. Heck, Lenin's Tomb remains in the Kremlin, Lenin monuments are all over Russia and Russians have taken umbrage at the removal of Lenin statues in Ukraine. Besides, Napoleon was Corsican, Hitler was Austrian and Alexander was Macedonian.

32 posted on 04/14/2014 4:39:40 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: dangus

Again, there are exactly no members of the National Socialist German Worker’s Party in Kiev.


33 posted on 04/14/2014 4:40:06 PM PDT by MeganC (Support Matt Bevin to oust Mitch McConnell! https://mattbevin.com/)
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To: MeganC

Ad Hominem?
Nice try there, but it just makes you look stupid.

My condolences on you inability to use critical thinking, instead of insults, strawmen, and ad hominems. It must be a terrible burden for your family.


34 posted on 04/14/2014 4:40:51 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Well, it is what the Sheeple voted for....)
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To: tcrlaf

What in post #29 counts as an ‘ad hominem’?

Nothing.

It’s not a fallacy that you’re admittedly parroting propaganda from a heavily biased government news agency of a nation that is currently waging a low-grade war against a neighbor.


35 posted on 04/14/2014 4:47:10 PM PDT by MeganC (Support Matt Bevin to oust Mitch McConnell! https://mattbevin.com/)
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To: MeganC

Such chauvinism is part of the problem. The West already looks for more ways to punish Russia.

And meanwhile the patient is critically ill and no one is seeking to cure him. Arguing over who began what is childish and in the meantime real people in Ukraine are suffering.

Its time to help them to preserve their country.


36 posted on 04/14/2014 4:47:54 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
Its time to help them to preserve their country.

I agree. And I hope that the civilized world steps up and helps them out before Russia steals everything.

37 posted on 04/14/2014 4:49:28 PM PDT by MeganC (Support Matt Bevin to oust Mitch McConnell! https://mattbevin.com/)
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To: MeganC

Oh please, get over yourself.
If you don’t want to know what both sides are thinking, you don’t have to read it (which you obviously haven’t), or comment on it.

Your hope is that if you make it a big enough hassle, that no one will dare post an opposing viewpoint, because it is just easier not to.

That’s called trolling.


38 posted on 04/14/2014 4:53:34 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Well, it is what the Sheeple voted for....)
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To: dangus
I do not believe the left gives a rats arse about any of those things.

If they they thought they could achieve their political aims by going along with Putin on each of those items they would.

39 posted on 04/14/2014 4:53:53 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: tcrlaf

The author of the analysis is a attorney from Finland who practices law in Russia. Obviously, he enjoys playing the devil’s advocate. :^)


40 posted on 04/14/2014 4:53:58 PM PDT by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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To: MeganC

What is there is left to steal? The oligarchs you blindly support have looted Ukraine for the past quarter of a century.

People supported the Maidan because they were sick of it. Everyone understands their aspirations for a better life. Its just the current regime is falling far short in meeting them.

Its not providing a roadmap forward for the country. People expect clear answers to the questions they want answered about economic reform, fighting corruption, increasing transparency, expanding democracy and federalism. Its time they received them.


41 posted on 04/14/2014 4:55:11 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: grania

IS that you, Vlad?


42 posted on 04/14/2014 5:04:15 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie (Mohammed was a Child Rapist and Islam is a Totalitarian Death Cult.)
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To: tcrlaf

Putun, Obama and the couple dozen Putinistas on FR are all on the same side.


43 posted on 04/14/2014 5:08:11 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: MeganC
FReeper posts from MSNBC--ridicule follows.
FReeper posts from RIA Novosti--desperate attempts to claim we need to be "reasonable," "hear all sides," etc.
44 posted on 04/14/2014 5:11:00 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: Zhang Fei

No, you don’t understand anything about how that part of the world works. Ethnicity is VERY important there, it’s not like France or America. Everyone in the USSR had their ethnicity on their identification papers. Nobody, NOBODY thought of Lenin and Trotsky as Russians. At the time, everyone in the Russian Empire understood that the communist revolution was about all the people who thought the previous government had oppressed them getting revenge. Ethnic politics was a big part of that and it was no secret.

It’s absurd to suggest that not considering Stalin an ethnic Russian is something only Nazis would do. It shows how little you know about the USSR and the culture and history of that part of the world. Ironically, the Nazis probably cared less than anyone that Stalin was not ethnically Russian.

Your position is especially ridiculous because you are placing blame on one ethnic group for actions ordered by men not of that group, then insisting that the reality of who was what doesn’t matter. If that’s the case, why blame “Russians” for anything the USSR did? Why not just say “communists?” It would be more accurate.


45 posted on 04/14/2014 5:11:53 PM PDT by Monmouth78
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To: goldstategop

Perhaps you should make yourself aware of the risks, past and future, associated with incitement to aggression with respect to the ongoing Russian aggression against the territorial integrity and independence of the Ukraine.

From Nuremberg to The Hague: Towards an International Crime of Incitement to Aggression
Michael G. Kearney

in The Prohibition of Propaganda for War in International Law

Published in print November 2007 | ISBN: 9780199232451
Published online January 2009 | e-ISBN: 9780191716034 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199232451.003.0006
The Prohibition of Propaganda for War in International Law
Michael G. Kearney
ISBN: 9780199232451
E-ISBN: 9780191716034
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199232451.001.0001
See details in Oxford Index

Available in
Oxford Scholarship Online » abstract

Buy this work at
Oxford University Press »

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This chapter makes the case for the inclusion in the Rome Statute of a distinct and inchoate crime of ‘direct and public incitement to aggression’. A similar offence was included in the International Law Commission’s draft Code of Offences Against the Peace and Security of Mankind in 1954 yet omitted from the 1996 draft, a move which is herein considered. The jurisprudence of the ad hoc international criminal tribunals provide guidance on the criminalization of incitement to crimes of an international dimension, especially cases dealing with charges of hate speech, war propaganda, and...

This chapter makes the case for the inclusion in the Rome Statute of a distinct and inchoate crime of ‘direct and public incitement to aggression’. A similar offence was included in the International Law Commission’s draft Code of Offences Against the Peace and Security of Mankind in 1954 yet omitted from the 1996 draft, a move which is herein considered. The jurisprudence of the ad hoc international criminal tribunals provide guidance on the criminalization of incitement to crimes of an international dimension, especially cases dealing with charges of hate speech, war propaganda, and incitement to genocide, war crimes, or crimes against humanity. The Rome Statute itself, and its drafting, is also discussed, particularly with regards the crime of aggression.

Show MoreShow Less

Keywords: Rome statute; International Law Commission; incitement; aggression; Rwanda; Nahimana; inchoate; Yugoslavia; Nuremberg; genocide

Chapter. 26781 words.

Subjects: public international law

http://oxfordindex.oup.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199232451.003.0006


46 posted on 04/14/2014 5:14:37 PM PDT by WhiskeyX
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To: Monmouth78

Dude. It was the Russians. Georgian at the top, whatever . . . .


47 posted on 04/14/2014 5:15:09 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: Viennacon

Ukrainians and Poles make good neighbors, but you don’t want both living under the same roof.


48 posted on 04/14/2014 5:16:03 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Monmouth78
Nobody, NOBODY thought of Lenin and Trotsky as Russians.

Why is Lenin's Tomb still in the Kremlin? Why are Lenin statues all over Russia? Why are Russians taking umbrage at the removal of Lenin statues in Ukraine?

Lenin had Mongol, Swedish, Jewish, German in addition to Russian blood, but his papers would have identified him as an ethnic Russian because he got that from his paternal ancestors. But to anyone but the Russian version of a Nazi, he would have been seen as plain Russian.

49 posted on 04/14/2014 5:25:29 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Monmouth78
Ethnicity is VERY important there...

Interesting that you say that ethnicity is very important there.

All oblasts in Ukraine including the eastern oblasts have a majority of people who are ethnic Ukrainian.

You bring up a good point.

Russia should keep their hands out of Ukraine.

Thanks for that.

50 posted on 04/14/2014 5:36:32 PM PDT by FreeReign
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