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Immigration's Impact on Republican Political Prospects, 1980 to 2012
Center for Immigration Studies ^ | April 15, 2014 | James Gimpel

Posted on 04/15/2014 11:39:29 AM PDT by kabar

Three key conclusions emerge from this analysis:

First, the enormous flow of legal immigrants in to the country — 29.5 million 1980 to 2012 — has remade and continues to remake the nation's electorate in favor of the Democratic Party.

Second, the partisan impact of immigration is relatively uniform throughout the country— from California to Texas to Florida — even though local Republican parties have taken different positions on illegal immigration. The decline does not seem to vary with the local Republican Party's position on illegal immigration.

Third, if legal immigration levels remain at the current levels of over one million a year, it will likely continue to undermine Republicans' political prospects moving forward. Further, if the substantial increases in legal immigration in Senate's Gang of Eight bill (S.744) were to become law it would accelerate this process. Conversely, lowering the level of legal immigration in the future would help stem the decline in the Republican vote.

Three related findings help explain why immigration reduces the Republican vote:

Immigrants, particularly Hispanics and Asians, have policy preferences when it comes to the size and scope of government that are more closely aligned with progressives than with conservatives. As a result, survey data show a two-to-one party identification with Democrats over Republicans.

By increasing income inequality and adding to the low-income population (e.g. immigrants and their minor children account for one-fourth of those in poverty and one-third of the uninsured) immigration likely makes all voters more supportive of redistributive policies championed by Democrats to support disadvantaged populations.

There is evidence that immigration may cause more Republican-oriented voters to move away from areas of high immigrant settlement leaving behind a more lopsided Democrat majority.

(Excerpt) Read more at cis.org ...


TOPICS: Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: aliens; immigration; politics
Unless the GOP makes reducing LEGAL IMMIGRATION a legislative objective, it will be the permanent majority party, and more importantly, the country will be transformed into a socialist hellhole.
1 posted on 04/15/2014 11:39:29 AM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

2 posted on 04/15/2014 11:42:40 AM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar
Unless the GOP makes reducing LEGAL IMMIGRATION a legislative objective, it will be the permanent majority party, and more importantly, the country will be transformed into a socialist hellhole.

I couldn't agree with you more on the problem of so-called legal immigration. It's not just the criminal invaders that are ruining America but those incapable of functioning in a free republic. But, no, it's not just my "narrow-minded, intolerant" viewpoint that's less than welcoming to these third-world types. Carefully read what President Calvin Coolidge (a favorite of President Ronald Reagan) had to say on the matter of selective immigration:

American institutions rest solely on good citizenship. They were created by people who had a background of self-government. New arrivals should be limited to our capacity to absorb them into the ranks of good citizenship. America must be kept American. For this purpose it is necessary to continue a policy of restricted immigration. It would be well to make such immigration of a selective nature with some inspection at the source, and based either on a prior census or upon the record of naturalization. Either method would insure the admission of those with the largest capacity and best intention of becoming citizens. Those who do not want to be partakers of the American spirit ought not to settle in America.

It's well past time that America put up this sign:


3 posted on 04/15/2014 12:11:53 PM PDT by re_nortex (DP - that's what I like about Texas)
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To: kabar

In that whole huge diatribe, which is hogwash,,guess how many times the word “illegal” is used?

The download pdf is 11 pages long, counting citations.

The word “illegal is used”.....twice.

Here’s where:

“Second, the partisan impact of immigration is relatively uniform throughout the country— from California to Texas to Florida — even though local Republican parties have taken different positions on illegal immigration. The decline does not seem to vary with the local Republican Party’s position on illegal immigration. “

That’s it.

Partisan impact of immigration? (author’s words)


4 posted on 04/15/2014 12:23:07 PM PDT by austinaero
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To: kabar

“Unless the GOP makes reducing LEGAL IMMIGRATION a legislative objective, it will be the permanent majority party, and more importantly, the country will be transformed into a socialist hellhole.”

We are being swarmed by Undocumented Dimocrats, the invasion being aided and abetted by Republican “leadership.”

Hold to the fire the feet of Boehner, Cantor, McCarthy, McMorris-Rodgers, Ryan, Goodlatte, and your own representative. This is the most important issue facing us—we either keep our country or we give it away.


5 posted on 04/15/2014 12:35:42 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn (White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: austinaero

Are you actually denying that massive legal immigration has hurt Republicans politically?

I live in an area with high levels of legal immigrants. Overwhelmingly, these people and their US born children are liberals who vote Democratic. The same thing was true 100 years ago.


6 posted on 04/15/2014 12:43:22 PM PDT by Monmouth78
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To: austinaero
Mere documentation doesn't equate to assimilation and the adopting of traditional American values. Read the words of President Coolidge, above. Not all legal immigrants will become Patriots.

And, of course, for the illegals, I personally want nothing less than Operation Wetback version 2.0, using the latest technological innovations that have arisen since the 1950s to enact a massive program of mass deportation. America must remain American!

7 posted on 04/15/2014 12:50:46 PM PDT by re_nortex (DP - that's what I like about Texas)
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To: kabar
The GOP could get a significant percentage of hispanic and black votes if they became the party of small business formation. Not with free zones and handouts, but with policies that make it much, much easier for a person to set up a small local business and thrive.

The Republican Party isn't about economic success of US citizens anymore. It's about enhancing the power and assets of the global elite.

8 posted on 04/15/2014 12:51:27 PM PDT by grania
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To: re_nortex

Thanks for the Coolidge quote. It is right on point.


9 posted on 04/15/2014 1:33:58 PM PDT by kabar
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To: austinaero
The word “illegal is used”.....twice.

You seem to have missed the point. It is LEGAL IMMIGRATION that is destroying the GOP and the country. LEGAL IMMIGRANTS CAN VOTE LEGALLY ONCE THEY GET LEGAL CITIZENSHIP.

10 posted on 04/15/2014 1:35:58 PM PDT by kabar
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To: SharpRightTurn

These are not “undocumented” but future Democrats. They are permanent legal immigrants who will be entitled to vote.


11 posted on 04/15/2014 1:38:07 PM PDT by kabar
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To: grania
The GOP could get a significant percentage of hispanic and black votes if they became the party of small business formation. Not with free zones and handouts, but with policies that make it much, much easier for a person to set up a small local business and thrive.

Nonsense. Hispanic and blacks are more dependent upon Big Government. They rely on Big Government to survive.

The Republican Party isn't about economic success of US citizens anymore. It's about enhancing the power and assets of the global elite.

Both parties have abandoned the American worker.

12 posted on 04/15/2014 1:44:19 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

Your statistics do show that it’s a minority of hispanics that want smaller government. It’s a significant 36% among third generation hispanics. It wouldn’t be a majority, for sure, but coming out for business formation with less regulation would be the best way to get a significant percentage of the black and US citizen hispanic vote.


13 posted on 04/15/2014 1:49:04 PM PDT by grania
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To: kabar

“who will be entitled to vote”.

Exactly, Dims in waiting even before they leave their native land (at least 2/3rds of them, perhaps more). As soon as they swap their work visa or other paperwork for citizenship papers, it then becomes official.


14 posted on 04/15/2014 2:09:36 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn (White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: grania
Blacks have an out of wedlock birthrate of 71% and Hispanics 53%. Both groups have a much higher school dropout rate than asians and non-Hispanic whites. This is the social pathology for failure in our society, which is why they depend on Big Government.

We have created a permanent underclass populated by mostly blacks and Hispanics who don't have the education to take skilled jobs. And they find that with the 1.1 million legal immigrants, mostly unskilled and uneducated who enter annually it is more and more difficult to find jobs and even if they do, the wages are depressed by the surplus of labor.

Immigration has made it far worse for native born blacks and Hispanics, especially those without an education.

The way to get minority votes is to stop the flood of immigration that is taking away their jobs and depressing their wages.

15 posted on 04/15/2014 2:17:27 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar
we have a permanent underclass populated by mostly blacks and hispanics who don't have the educaton to take skilled jobs

You've also got a significant percentage of the traditional non-minority US population falling into those catergories. The problems have to do with the types of education being offered and competition for jobs, which causes a downward spiral in opportunity and wages. High schools need to go back to vocational opportunities and knowledge about running a business. The competition for jobs from immigrants, legal or not, is causing rift among ethnic groups and a lack of job stability/opportunity. There has to be less difficulty in starting and operating a small business enterprise, and neighborhoods have to be stable enough for commerce to occur.

The whole thing with the excess of black and hispanic labor seems intentional, to keep wages down and upward mobility from happening. JMHO

16 posted on 04/15/2014 4:29:23 PM PDT by grania
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To: grania
If anything like the Senate Gang of 8 bill is passed by Congress we will almost triple legal immigration over the next decade to 33 million and double our annual guest worker programs to 1.4 million a year. We already have 45 million foreign born now. This will no longer be America but a Balkanized country descending into a Third World nation.

If we even just remain with the status quo on legal immigration, we are finished anyway. We can't absorb these numbers. We are importing poverty and excess labor. No amount of vocational training is going to solve that problem.


17 posted on 04/15/2014 6:03:00 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

Little hope for GOP on immigrants, study shows; legalization won’t change wave

By Stephen Dinan

The Washington Times

Monday, April 14, 2014

After President Obama won re-election in 2012 and collected 71 percent of the Hispanic vote, some Republican political consultants and party leaders said they needed to adjust their stance on immigration to win over those voters.

An influx of immigrants has boosted the Democratic Party, and that trend is set to continue. Even in places where Republicans support legalization of illegal immigrants, the party hasn’t been able to stem those changes, according to a study being released Tuesday.

James Gimpel, a professor at the University of Maryland, said in a report being released by the Center for Immigration Studies that many of those in the recent wave of immigrants trail native-born Americans on education and skills and favor a broader scope for government action, which makes them “ideal recruits for the Democratic Party.”

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/apr/14/study-little-hope-for-gop-on-immigrants/


18 posted on 04/16/2014 5:12:27 AM PDT by KeyLargo
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To: kabar

All these reports and charts turn most peoples brains to mush. They serve a purpose but a better contrast would be Los Angeles to the rest of the country. Look what unbridled immigration, legal and illegal, has done to Los Angeles.
I was in Target in Ventura yesterday and the aisles were crowded with people speaking only Spanish. I refuse to go to the Oxnard Walmart because it is nothing but Mexicans. I am running out of places to go. ;(


19 posted on 04/16/2014 7:58:18 AM PDT by sheana
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To: sheana
All these reports and charts turn most peoples brains to mush.

Sad, isn't it? We must deal in facts and not emotion, but the Dems know that most people are so ignorant, it is far easier to manipulate them thru emotion.

We get the government and policies we deserve. If the American people are so stupid that they cannot digest "reports and charts," then the Republic is truly finished. We cannot have a rationale discussion of the issue.

20 posted on 04/16/2014 8:25:31 AM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

THE TRUTH ABOUT THE BORDER

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=klfmFUcBy5w


21 posted on 04/18/2014 11:28:53 AM PDT by Dqban22
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