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Could Democrats Gain Senate Seats This Fall?
Real Clear Politics ^ | April 17, 2014 | Sean Trende

Posted on 04/17/2014 8:31:20 AM PDT by Kenny

It's a virtual article of faith among election analysts that Republicans will gain Senate seats in the 2014 midterms. I tend to agree with that assessment, and strongly so. In fact, like other forecasters such as Alan Abramowitz and Nate Silver, I think Republicans have the edge in the battle to take control of the upper chamber this November.

But there is one place where I part company with most forecasters. I’m not 100 percent confident that Republicans will gain seats. In fact, when I analyzed the Senate races in February, my simulation created a few scenarios where Republicans did, in fact, lose seats. (It’s also worth remembering that while a seven-to-nine seat Republican gain was the most likely scenario, in about 60 percent of the scenarios, Republicans gained some number other than seven, eight, or nine.)

Don’t get me wrong: For Democrats to gain seats this cycle would be the equivalent of drawing a straight flush. With that said, straight flushes do occur, so it’s worth examining how it might occur here.

The first thing that would have to happen is that the playing field would have to improve for Democrats. Of the 11 Democratic seats that RCP currently rates as leans Democratic or worse, Democrats are probably at least slightly favored in Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, and perhaps Colorado. If the political dynamic were to shift toward the party, these seats would probably be out of the GOP’s reach on Election Day.

The way this could occur is fairly straightforward: The Affordable Care Act improves; there’s no massive rate shock for premiums in September or October; and the economy slowly gains ground. This should propel President Obama’s job approval upward, lifting the collective Democratic boat.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
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Here it comes, the setup for Dems to win. The media and talking heads have all performed well touting a Republican wave in 2014, now it's time to start turning that around. So sad, I'm not sure we even have elections anymore or if our presence at the polls isn't all show for the predetermined results.
1 posted on 04/17/2014 8:31:20 AM PDT by Kenny
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To: Kenny

If the GOPe continues it’s war on conservatives, many are going to be turned of from voting


2 posted on 04/17/2014 8:32:17 AM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans!)
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To: Kenny
Only if the Community Agitators Formerly Known as ACORN get enough of their peeps to vote multiple times as dead people.
3 posted on 04/17/2014 8:33:30 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("The best way to control opposition is to lead it ourselves." -- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin)
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To: Kenny

Absolutely.

There is NO serious penalty for voting fifty times
— if you are with al Qaeda, a criminal illegal,
or a Democrat.

And preventing voters from voting
is a specialty of the DO”J” and its Black Panthers.

Election fraud is a SPECIALTY of the DO”J” and IR”S”,
political/medical/judicial arms
of the criminal enterprise
run by Obama-the-Undocumented.


4 posted on 04/17/2014 8:35:06 AM PDT by Diogenesis
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To: Kenny
But there is one place where I part company with most forecasters. I’m not 100 percent confident that Republicans will gain seats. In fact, when I analyzed the Senate races in February, my simulation created a few scenarios where Republicans did, in fact, lose seats.

Scenario one: Massive voter fraud, in which Republican votes are 'lost' and Democrat votes pour in from double- and triple-voters, the dead, and are electronically created out of thin air.

Scenario two: Massive voter fraud, in which Republican votes are 'lost' and Democrat votes pour in from double- and triple-voters, the dead, and are electronically created out of thin air.

Scenario three: Massive voter fraud, in which Republican votes are 'lost' and Democrat votes pour in from double- and triple-voters, the dead, and are electronically created out of thin air.

Scenario four: Massive voter fraud, in which Republican votes are 'lost' and Democrat votes pour in from double- and triple-voters, the dead, and are electronically created out of thin air.

5 posted on 04/17/2014 8:35:07 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Early 2009 to 7/21/2013 - RIP my little girl Cathy. You were the best cat ever. You will be missed.)
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To: GeronL

If the GOP continues it’s war on conservatives, many are going to be turned of from voting

It's hard to motivate conservatives to vote when the choice of candidates is between liberal and more liberal.


6 posted on 04/17/2014 8:35:47 AM PDT by caligatrux (...some animals are more equal than others.)
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To: Lazamataz

You forgot Scenario five: they don’t even bother counting the votes and just send made-up poll returns to their friends in the MSM showing Democrat landslides.


7 posted on 04/17/2014 8:37:57 AM PDT by caligatrux (...some animals are more equal than others.)
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To: caligatrux

Very true but many of them are not even pretending to be severely conservative this time


8 posted on 04/17/2014 8:43:36 AM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans!)
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To: Kenny

I’m gonna be working for Scott Brown in New Hampshire this year *not* because he’s my dream candidate...or anywhere close to my dream candidate...but because he’s not even close to being the filthy,stinking,Maoist whore that Jean Shaheen is.


9 posted on 04/17/2014 8:49:17 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Stalin Blamed The Kulaks,Obama Blames The Tea Party)
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To: Kenny

Highly unlikely. Midterm elections are VERY different from presidential elections. The electorate in midterm elections is significantly smaller, older, and whiter than is generally the case in presidential elections, therefore significantly more conservative and more Republican and more motivated. Further, the Party in power tends to lose seats in midterm elections-—this is especially even more prounounced in the 6th year of a presidency. History clearly does not favor the Dems this November, although demographic changes continue to favor them in presidential elections.


10 posted on 04/17/2014 8:50:20 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: Kenny

They plan on cheating so they have to try to make it look close. Though anymore, they openly cheat and know nobody will do a thing about it.

That would be racist.


11 posted on 04/17/2014 8:52:26 AM PDT by dforest
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To: Kenny

It is all about GOTV and locking up ALL absentee balloters.

(nursing homes, seniors, low information voters, etc)


12 posted on 04/17/2014 8:53:18 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: Lazamataz

You forgot the ballots in the trunk of a car!


13 posted on 04/17/2014 8:53:34 AM PDT by dforest
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To: Lazamataz

And mysterious power outages. And ink spilled all over the voter logs.


14 posted on 04/17/2014 8:55:54 AM PDT by dforest
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To: Kenny

the effete nyc dominant media is already reporting on the incredible wonderfulness of obamacare


15 posted on 04/17/2014 8:57:16 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: Kenny

Anything is possible, and the Establishment Republicans are famous for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

After all, Harry S Truman “lost” the Presidential election in 1948. This was documented most famously in a headline in the Chicago Tribune.

The Establishment Republicans have a very strong potential ally in their bid to regain control of the Senate and making the Current Occupant of the Oval Orifice into the lamest duck in history. But it may involve sacrificing some of their closest “cronies” and respecting the wisdom of the adults in the room.

Seize them by the gonads, and their hearts and minds shall surely follow


16 posted on 04/17/2014 9:00:26 AM PDT by alloysteel (Selective and willful ignorance spells doom, to both victim and perpetrator - mostly the perp.)
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To: longtermmemmory

so is Yahoo News. I read it and then I need to take a sedative immediately afterward. These people live in an alternate universe.


17 posted on 04/17/2014 9:05:54 AM PDT by midnightcat
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To: Gay State Conservative
I’m gonna be working for Scott Brown in New Hampshire this year *not* because he’s my dream candidate...or anywhere close to my dream candidate...but because he’s not even close to being the filthy,stinking,Maoist whore that Jean Shaheen is.

Kudos, that's what we need is to kick out the commies. Hey, that could be a slogan!

18 posted on 04/17/2014 9:18:47 AM PDT by Kenny
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To: Kenny

Unhindered Vote Fraud supported by both parties of the ruling class.


19 posted on 04/17/2014 9:19:13 AM PDT by Mechanicos (When did we amend the Constitution for a 2nd Federal Prohibition?)
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To: GeronL
If the GOPe continues it’s war on conservatives, many are going to be turned of from voting

I hope you're wrong because then the bad guys win. Actually, if anyone is ok with a Democrat winning over their candidate it's the GOPe because for them it's six one way a half dozen the other. And I believe they'd gladly sacrifice a majority to stop the Tea Party.

Don't let them win, vote Republican and pray we have enough conservatives to turn the tide.

20 posted on 04/17/2014 9:22:37 AM PDT by Kenny
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To: Gay State Conservative
I’m gonna be working for Scott Brown in New Hampshire this year *not* because he’s my dream candidate

As you know there are a lot of people on this forum (who have no knowledge of MA or NH politics) who would rather have people like Elizabeth Warren, Jeanne Shaheen or Barry Obama elected than vote for someone like Scott Brown or Romney.

21 posted on 04/17/2014 9:23:22 AM PDT by ladyjane
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To: Kenny

The Republicans have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the past two elections. They didn’t help from anybody else.


22 posted on 04/17/2014 9:25:33 AM PDT by pfflier
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To: pfflier

It doesn’t matter who casts the votes, but who counts them.—Josef Stalin


23 posted on 04/17/2014 9:28:43 AM PDT by huckfillary
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To: dforest; Lazmataz

Don’t forget the lost, late and uncounted military votes.


24 posted on 04/17/2014 9:35:26 AM PDT by subterfuge (CBS NBC ABC FOX AP-- all no different than Pravda.)
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To: ladyjane
As you know there are a lot of people on this forum (who have no knowledge of MA or NH politics) who would rather have people like Elizabeth Warren, Jeanne Shaheen or Barry Obama elected than vote for someone like Scott Brown or Romney.

Yes,I'm fully aware of that....all *too* aware of it.They're the ones who,IMO,check their ammunition supplies daily as well as their three year supplies of MRE's.And you're correct in your *vitally* important observation that they don't have the first friggin clue to what depths of depravity New England has sunk and that,as a result,the very best that can be expected from New England is someone like Olympia Snowe who,I'll bet only gets a rating of 40% from Americans For Democratic Action as opposed to Jean Shaheen's or Bernie Sanders' rating of 95%.Americans For Democratic Action is,as you probably know,a Maoist organization that adores the likes of Bernie Sanders and Dirty Harry and wants the likes of Scott Brown hung from the nearest oak tree.

25 posted on 04/17/2014 9:37:46 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Stalin Blamed The Kulaks,Obama Blames The Tea Party)
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To: ladyjane

Amen


26 posted on 04/17/2014 9:42:05 AM PDT by Foolsgold (Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber)
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To: Gay State Conservative

While I am generally on your side of this argument about electing republicans in liberal states, I think some understanding for harder line conservatives is in order.

People like Scott Brown, whatever the realities of Mass. or NH politics, are just wrong on the issues. And there is a deeper problem because the GOP establishment probably is closer to a Scott Brown cave in, than to a Ted Cruz stand up for what’s right.

However, I would still try to get Brown elected in NH so Harry Reid is not Senate majority leader and so that Ted Cruz can be part of the majority party. I see the Obama/ Reid/ Pelosi threat to America as that serious.

Romney would be a God send versus the destruction we are seeing. This world is heading for a conflagration and some things trump even conservative principles - I am talking about if we are all dead or dying in a radioactive wasteland. That is where I firmly believe Obama and his ilk are taking us.

Or at least we are on the doorstep of one party corrupt rule and Third Worldism.


27 posted on 04/17/2014 9:58:33 AM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: Kenny

Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to steal defeat from the jaws of victory.


28 posted on 04/17/2014 9:58:39 AM PDT by G Larry (There's the Beef!)
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To: Kenny
Here it comes, the setup for Dems to win.

Just their way of preparing us for the outcome they have planned through vote fraud.

29 posted on 04/17/2014 9:59:32 AM PDT by itsahoot (Voting for a Progressive RINO is the same as voting for any other Tyrant.)
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To: Kenny

The GOPe hates me, why I would vote for that?

I will vote for conservatives in races where they are on the ballot. I owe the GOPe nothing


30 posted on 04/17/2014 10:30:41 AM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans!)
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To: Williams
People like Scott Brown, whatever the realities of Mass. or NH politics, are just wrong on the issues.

OK,let's do a quick review.I don't know where you're from,so I'll make it general in nature.

"Americans For Democratic Action" is a large,well known and "respected" (by the usual suspects) Maoist organization.One of the things they do,every year,is rate every member of Congress regarding their votes on what they see as important issues.Here's a rundown of their findings on New England's 12 Senators for 2012 (the most recent year that they've rated).Remember,a score of 100% means "perfect" for them...meaning a perfect Maoist and 0% means,to them,"filthy knuckle dragging racist who should have been aborted".

Brown (R-MA) 50%**********Lieberman (Rat-CT) 80%

Ayotte (R-NH) 10%**********Leahy (Rat-VT) 100%

Collins(R-ME) 50%**********Shaheen (Rat-NH) 95%

Snowe (R-ME) 50%**********Sanders (Rat-VT) 100%

***************************Kerry (Rat-MA 95%

***************************Blumenthal (Rat-CT) 90%

***************************Reed (Rat-RI) 90%

***************************Whitehouse (Rat-RI) 90%

When forced to choose between 50% and 100% (or even 80%) I'll take 50%.Of course many here (including you,perhaps?) will take 100% in the same situation because,damn it,I WANT RONALD REAGAN...and if I can't have Reagan I'll settle for Obama (or Dirty Harry).

31 posted on 04/17/2014 10:45:53 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Stalin Blamed The Kulaks,Obama Blames The Tea Party)
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To: Gay State Conservative

Supporting non-conservative Republicans gets us growing government forever.

I oppose that.


32 posted on 04/17/2014 10:48:19 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (Mohammed was a Child Rapist and Islam is a Totalitarian Death Cult.)
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To: Kenny

Massive voter fraud is being orchestrated. Dear Reader and the Chicago Thug Machine are cranking it up.


33 posted on 04/17/2014 11:15:50 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

Agreed.


34 posted on 04/17/2014 11:50:04 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Gay State Conservative

I think you did not read my whole post.

I said I would support Brown to get a republican senator, but I understand why other conservatives feel it is more principled to oppose him.


35 posted on 04/17/2014 1:01:23 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: Kenny; AuH2ORepublican; BillyBoy; fieldmarshaldj; sickoflibs; Viennacon

It’s unlikely they’ll retain control. It’s certain they’ll suffer a net loss. 3 seats are virtually certain to come to us (WV, SD, MT) and only 2 of ours are vulnerable (KY, GA).

Unlike 2012 most of our targets are GOP states and the only GOP seat in a rat state up is Maine which is safe RINO for Susie Collins. And just as importantly, this is a midterm of a President that’s not popular. Barry’s fan club showed up to reelect him but they skipped 2010. The majority of voters this election will have a negative opinion of Obama.

In addition to the 3 that I already mentioned we should take AR, AK, LA and NC. The rat is NOT favored in MI, slightly or otherwise, that’s a GOP edge. CO is a tossup at worse. IA, only a slight rat edge at worst. MN (Franken only narrowly leads nobody Republicans) and NH are lesser chances to keep an eye on. The party also has some hope in VA and OR but I don’t think those will be competitive. And Angus Baronet in Maine may flip his allegiance because all he cares about is his personal level of influence.

Whining about “rigged” elections is tiresome. How did they let us take the House and keep it if the outcome were “predetermined”? Fraudulent votes make up the margin of difference in a small number of very close races, they don’t turn GOP routs into the rats gaining seats. Fraud isn’t sorcery. The rats when they lost in 2002 and 2004 had a similar fantasy about “diebold election machines” being rigged. Excuses for losing are just that.

We lost in 2012 mostly due to shite candidates like WM Romney, Tommy “Grandpa” Thompson and Connie Mack the lesser. Any winnable race we don’t win this year will likewise be far more likely to be caused by our candidate being crummy than by fraud.

Fraud cost us only 1 Senate seat in 2012 (ND) and that was only possible because our guy did a horrible job. Libertarians cost us another (ME) and likewise our candidate wasn’t running a good campaign. Idiot candidates making short bus comments about rape cost us 2 more (MO, IN).

I didn’t think the rats could score a net gain of 2 in 2012 but THEY did and their polls that we dismissed unfortunately turned out to be accurate. They don’t think they’ll win this time.

This one writer writing this one SPECULATIVE article about how things could POSSIBLY turn around for the rats IF they get really lucky is not “the media” starting to “change the narrative” to fit a rat win. People who write regular columns need topics. You should see some stupid sports columns I’ve read, writer just had a deadline and needed to submit something.

History shows that for a President’s party to do well in a midterm, and by well I mean break even or gain slightly, he needs to be popular.

When Obama’s approval rating starts mirroring Bubba’s in 1998, then you can start talking seriously about slight rat gains being possible. And even if that occurs, is Obama gonna have positive approval in goddamn Arkansas or Alaska? Hell no. Obama getting more popular would hurt us in MI, CO and IA but the only way we don’t pick up those Senate seats in the so-called “red states” is if our candidates blow it.


36 posted on 04/17/2014 4:09:44 PM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Clintonfatigued; GOPsterinMA; randita

Meant to ping you guys too.

I wrote a small essay so feel free to skip it. ;d


37 posted on 04/17/2014 4:11:27 PM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: ladyjane
The purist in the Republican party are going to make damn sure that Democrats stay in permanent power for the next 50 years.

The problem with these fools is that they all have a different view of what a PURE conservative candidate is and if someone differs from their world view only slightly then that candidate isn't worth voting for.

Thus we have the re-election of the likes of Obama. A corruption marred, dishonest, big government bureaucrat that has wreaked our health care system, economy, and world standing. A man who shouldn't have stood a chance were it not for the Republican voters that sat at home because the challenger wasn't pure enough to be worth voting for.

Whew....I'm sure glad we kept that awful Mitt Romney out of the White House. Things are so much better for it.

38 posted on 04/17/2014 4:13:22 PM PDT by Carbonsteel
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To: Impy

Wait, the Libertarian lost us the Montana race, not the Maine race. Maine was lost ‘cos they elect morons habitually (Angus King is the latest and perhaps most embarrassing)


39 posted on 04/17/2014 4:20:17 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Carbonsteel

And many of those who stayed home rather than voting for Romney are proud of it!


40 posted on 04/17/2014 4:21:08 PM PDT by ladyjane
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To: ladyjane

They are Obama electors....... self righteous pride is more important than America


41 posted on 04/17/2014 4:22:47 PM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... History is a process, not an event)
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To: Viennacon; Kenny; AuH2ORepublican; BillyBoy; fieldmarshaldj; sickoflibs; Clintonfatigued; ...

Yes, I meant MT. I put the wrong, abbrev.

They almost cost us Arizona as well, Flake won by 49-46 with 4.5% for the Libertarian. They did cost us 2 House seats in that state though (2 rat plurality wins) with recount fraud costing us 1 more (Martha McSally won on election night, Libertarians were negligible in that district) .

The Constitution party affiliate nearly cost us Nevada. Heller won by about 1 point with almost 5% going to some jackass named David Lory VanderBeek.


42 posted on 04/17/2014 4:38:23 PM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Impy

Is that what you want? Really?


43 posted on 04/17/2014 5:04:17 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (You're a very weird person, Yossarian.)
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To: GOPsterinMA

No, I want you to validate my ego by agreeing with everything I wrote and praising me. ;)


44 posted on 04/17/2014 5:15:47 PM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Impy; All

Well thought out analytical thinking, Impy. Nice work.

I won’t predict the exact outcomes, but I have cautious optimism that both chambers of Congress will have GOP majorities, especially as long as the Akins, Mourdocks, O’Donnells, Angles and the rest of the mental midget brigade are kept in closets, caves, boxes...anywhere but on ballots or in front of cameras.


45 posted on 04/17/2014 5:18:01 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (You're a very weird person, Yossarian.)
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To: Impy

I just did. :)


46 posted on 04/17/2014 5:18:33 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (You're a very weird person, Yossarian.)
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To: GOPsterinMA

Thanks!

Playoffs, damn St. Louis scored on the Blackhawks already.

Bruins go tomorrow.


47 posted on 04/17/2014 5:25:58 PM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Impy

You’re welcome!

The Western Conference playoffs are going to be war. Plus CHI has significant injuries.

BOS playing tomorrow sucks for me; parking in the North End will be even more horrific than usual. We’re going in to buy Italian pastries for Easter there.

The problems of modern life I guess...:)


48 posted on 04/17/2014 5:29:20 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (You're a very weird person, Yossarian.)
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To: Impy
Whining about “rigged” elections is tiresome. How did they let us take the House and keep it if the outcome were “predetermined”?

What makes me think there's widespread fraud is the fact that I've learned to accept the anomaly. I remember the first couple of times when watching returns, I was sure we'd won. The races were close but Republicans firmly in the lead. But then, at the last minute, some big city came in and, Magic Circus, the Dem pulled ahead.

The first couple of times that happened, I figured we lost, weird but we lost. Then, when it became the norm, when every close race was pulled out for the Dem at the last minute, after all the other votes were counted, then I saw the handwriting on the wall. This includes the VA Governor race of late.

49 posted on 04/17/2014 5:58:43 PM PDT by Kenny
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To: Impy

I agree with your analysis pretty much.

Only bone to pick is the influence of Libertarian candidates. My personal opinion (borne out by some post election analysis that I can’t recall enough about to source) is that usually Libertarians draw equally from GOP and Rats, so it’s usually a wash.


50 posted on 04/17/2014 8:07:05 PM PDT by randita
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