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Putin's Plan for Overturning the European Order
Real Clear Wordl ^ | April 16, 2014 | Ivan Krastev

Posted on 04/17/2014 5:32:29 PM PDT by neverdem

Russia's willingness to violate Ukraine's territorial sovereignty is the gravest challenge to the European order in over half a century. The conflict pits a vast nuclear power against a state equal in size to France, an autocratic regime against a revolutionary government. The Russian intervention in Ukraine raises questions about the security guarantees that the West made to Ukraine after the country gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994, and it flies in the face of many Europeans' belief that, in recent years, a continental war has become all but impossible. The end result may be the emergence of a third Russian empire or a failed Ukrainian state at the center of Europe.

Russia's aggression in Ukraine should not be understood as an opportunistic power grab. Rather, it is an attempt to politically, culturally, and militarily resist the West. Russia resorted to military force because it wanted to signal a game change, not because it had no other options. Indeed, it had plenty of other ways to put pressure on Kiev, including through the Russian Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol, the Ukrainian city in which the force is based; playing with gas prices; demanding that Ukraine start paying off its government debt to Russia; and drumming up anti-Ukrainian sentiment among Ukraine's sizeable Russian population. Further, senior American figures had already noted that the Ukrainian crisis could not be solved without Russia, and European leaders had expressed their unhappiness about a new (and unfortunate) law that Ukraine's transitional government passed soon after it was formed, which degraded the status of the Russian language. In other words, resorting to force was unnecessary.

It was also dangerous: Ukraine is a big country, and its public, still in a revolutionary mood, is primed to fight for a patriotic cause...

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearworld.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Politics/Elections; Russia
KEYWORDS: bupadestmemorandum; putin; ukraine
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1 posted on 04/17/2014 5:32:29 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

This would be entertaining if we weren’t bound to Europe by NATO...


2 posted on 04/17/2014 5:36:13 PM PDT by Little Ray (How did I end up in this hand-basket, and why is it getting so hot?)
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To: neverdem

What he really means is that Putin is a threat to decadent Western liberalism...

There, fixed it.


3 posted on 04/17/2014 5:39:16 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

I’d like to see you explain how the counter to “decadent Western liberalism” is the embrace of a strongman. Unless he can make the trains run on time, of course.


4 posted on 04/17/2014 5:43:23 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

You know the usual EU trifecta: gay marriage, abortion and high taxes that choke off investment and growth.

That decadent Western liberalism. And of multiculturalism that is allowing Islam to slowly subvert Europe from within.


5 posted on 04/17/2014 5:47:01 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

I’ll just wait for another time for your explanation, then.


6 posted on 04/17/2014 5:48:22 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy; goldstategop

7 posted on 04/17/2014 6:09:27 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: bigheadfred

I asked a regular question. No need for homoeroticism.


8 posted on 04/17/2014 6:12:12 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: Little Ray
Ukraine isn't a meember of NATO, but it's worse than that. The bent one, John Major and Boris Yeltsin swore to protect Ukraine's sovereignty when they surrendered their nukes in 1994 in the Bupadest memorandum.
9 posted on 04/17/2014 6:14:11 PM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: 1rudeboy

Why don’t you go ahead and explain it to all of us. You have a specific point in mind. Enlighten us.


10 posted on 04/17/2014 6:14:30 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: bigheadfred

That’s unique. Who knew, but you, that I have the answer to my own question:


11 posted on 04/17/2014 6:15:38 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy; goldstategop

Its a false premise, it doesn’t require an explanation.


12 posted on 04/17/2014 6:20:22 PM PDT by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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To: mac_truck

Well, then . . . perhaps you could explain why it is a “false premise?”


13 posted on 04/17/2014 6:21:07 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: Little Ray

I’m reminded of another security guarrantee made to
Belgium by France and England. At least the Brits
had the honor to stand behind it.

Now the word of the President is worthless and that
means freedom suffers in one way or another.


14 posted on 04/17/2014 6:23:12 PM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: 1rudeboy

No you figure it out...or ask the State Dept. for help


15 posted on 04/17/2014 6:25:14 PM PDT by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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To: neverdem

Which is the biggest threat to Europe and the USA?

Putin?

Islam?


16 posted on 04/17/2014 6:27:29 PM PDT by Iron Munro (NSA reports Malaysia Flight 370 black box signals detected in Bermuda Triangle)
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To: mac_truck

I guess it must be a Russian thing, then.


17 posted on 04/17/2014 6:27:56 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

No you’re still clueless.


18 posted on 04/17/2014 6:29:34 PM PDT by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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To: mac_truck

Yup, certainly a Russian thing.


19 posted on 04/17/2014 6:32:09 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: goldstategop
the usual EU trifecta: gay marriage, abortion and high taxes

Putin panders to the female vote with state contraception services. Putin is not remotely pro-life.

20 posted on 04/17/2014 6:37:56 PM PDT by Kennard
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To: 1rudeboy

You must have one hell of a weekend planned.


21 posted on 04/17/2014 6:41:17 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: bigheadfred

Thanks, but no. I’m on a seven day schedule. Any plans for yours?


22 posted on 04/17/2014 6:42:38 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

Yes. I plan on spending the next three days talking to you.

Or I am going to get blind drunk for three days.

Same thing.


23 posted on 04/17/2014 6:47:15 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: bigheadfred

Well, if you choose the former, try harder.


24 posted on 04/17/2014 6:49:08 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

now you think we’re married


25 posted on 04/17/2014 6:58:46 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: Iron Munro

Ummm, neither. The biggest threat is LIBERALISM


26 posted on 04/17/2014 7:00:32 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: bigheadfred

Again, please take that homo stuff elsewhere.


27 posted on 04/17/2014 7:01:22 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: Kennard

But abortion has decreased dramatically during his tenure

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/02/09/russias-abortion-rate-is-rapidly-converging-with-western-europes/


28 posted on 04/17/2014 7:02:03 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: goldstategop
You know the usual EU trifecta: gay marriage, abortion and high taxes that choke off investment and growth.

Nothing spurs investment and growth like threatening your neighbors.

How's that working out for Pooty-poot?

Ulyukayev told parliament national output fell 0.5 percent compared with the last quarter of 2013, although it grew by 0.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter.

He said the downturn reflected "a substantial reduction in capital investment", which fell by 4.8 pct in the first quarter compared with a year earlier.

Weak Russian GDP growth highlights investment slump - Economy Minister

29 posted on 04/17/2014 7:08:49 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (Science is hard. Harder if you're stupid.)
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To: 1rudeboy

You are a bit intransigent tonite.

There is a stress factor in you that you really should elucidate.

Or just take a valium or ten and get some sleep.


30 posted on 04/17/2014 7:14:22 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: neverdem

Thank you for your post


31 posted on 04/17/2014 7:15:40 PM PDT by UMCRevMom@aol.com
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To: bigheadfred

Again, it just was a “regular question,” the kind you might see now and then on a bulletin board. The Russians couldn’t answer it, and neither could you.


32 posted on 04/17/2014 7:16:33 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: Iron Munro

Don’t forget socialism. I don’t see where Europe is this great bastion of freedom that deserves preservation. They are destroying themselves. Haven’t we bailed them out enough over the years?


33 posted on 04/17/2014 7:22:34 PM PDT by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: 1rudeboy

People are people. You interpret my postings as some how relating to the homo agenda. Far from it. Putin exhibits many attributes Americans find lacking in their own leaders. America used to deal from a position of strength. Now we are dealt with.

I have strong doubts any one posting on this forum would for one instant embrace Putin.

They merely wish that the rule of law and the Constitution be upheld. They have too much to lose by out right rebellion, so they think. So it easier to make little animal noises by giving a shout out to perhaps the most dangerous animal on the planet.

Too many in this country are hailing a “strong” man who claims the trains are running on time.

But there are others who know the truth.


34 posted on 04/17/2014 7:38:35 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: bigheadfred

My tomcat thinks he is the most dangerous animal on the planet, but all he can do is say meow.


35 posted on 04/17/2014 7:42:47 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (Embrace the Lion of Judah and He will roar for you and teach you to roar too. See my page.)
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To: goldstategop

Russia has made it clear it will honor no laws passed by the EU regarding homosexual marriage, abortion or anything else. Russia already has problems with it’s muslim populations. Given that Russia’s military population is slated to be 40% muslim in decades to come, NOW is the time to push them back from Ukraines frontiers, not vice versa.


36 posted on 04/17/2014 8:27:55 PM PDT by Amberdawn
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To: Viennacon
But abortion has decreased dramatically during his tenure

That's almost entirely due to the increased availability of contraception. The current Russian abortion rate is still double that of Europe's.

37 posted on 04/17/2014 8:54:00 PM PDT by Kennard
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To: bigheadfred

Could that not be an appeal to Putin’s conservatism? Putin rules over a conservative country, when compared with Europe, and Putin is one of the few leaders who doesn’t want to “fundamentally transform” his nation. He never talks about stopping the ‘rising tides’ or ‘wealth redistribution’.

Real Americans didn’t want leaders who would fundamentally transform America, and unfortunately we got just that, whether they stood idly by and let it happen or actively participated. I think some would have preferred a president with Putin’s attitude instead of Bill Clinton in the 90s.


38 posted on 04/17/2014 9:00:45 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: neverdem
Putin's Chief Operative: F' EU.
39 posted on 04/17/2014 9:04:28 PM PDT by DTA
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To: Iron Munro
Which is the biggest threat to Europe and the USA?

Putin and Islam are only a couple of them. Chicoms could be the biggest. Any combination of them all hate the US.

40 posted on 04/17/2014 9:22:34 PM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: Kennard
Putin panders to the female vote with state contraception services. Putin is not remotely pro-life.

One of the later things I have read is that Putin is promoting pregnancies for more babies born, i.e. the women are being paid for childbirth, and putin was not supporting the homosexual agenda because it harm's Putin's goal, positive population growth.

41 posted on 04/17/2014 9:30:23 PM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: goldstategop

......”Russia’s aggression in Ukraine should not be understood as an opportunistic power grab. Rather, it is an attempt to politically, culturally, and militarily resist the West”.....

Well now that they’ve spit that out do you think we might get a more level playing field with the “old war” mentality here on FR?...and they aren’t the only ones playing those cards.

When you view the people throughout Ukraine you can see that many of them also carry that mentality....Putin let’s the Russian segment believe this to a point, which is why Crimea went down as it did..... while at the same time Putin plays to Europe/Nato/US that they have been doing by scooping up the Baltics etc. is really the same thing. But you note the media says very little about this as it’s wired to be anti-Russian..it too has many of the Old war mentality.

Did you hear Putins 4 hour q&E?.....Course you have to understand he’s playing to his audiance of course...but dang...he uses no notes and went on for 4 hours answering questions and explaining where he stood and why. I don’t agree with him most of the time...but I do understand where he’s coming from and why.

I don’t think Ukraine will ever be more than what it has been...always a flash point...always in debt as a welfare state...and incapable of handling it’s affairs rightly. Too many crooks even in this next election...and too many on the take.


42 posted on 04/17/2014 9:46:48 PM PDT by caww
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To: neverdem
That was never agreed on as a promise by any means...in fact Ukraine wasn't willing to sign it because it wasn't a promise.....further Ukraine isn't a Nato member so no nation is willing to fight Russia over Ukraine...that was apparent with Crimea and only talk...and still only talk today...it's gone home.

The only reason we see Nato putting troops etc. in the Baltic states is to set the line clearly to Putin and Assure the states he can go no further...but you note Nato is not surrounding Ukraine's border to protect them....and all other states in the area not with Nato are crying to join....but cannot because they don't meet the Euros conditions nor can they.

Putin pretty much could take Ukraine if he wanted, but he's not going to go that far....he's not about ready to have a land war when he can get what he wants with Ukraine returning back to the neutral position, under Russia influence it previously was...and that is where it will head eventually.

43 posted on 04/17/2014 9:54:49 PM PDT by caww
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To: bigheadfred
....”Putin exhibits many attributes Americans find lacking in their own leaders. America used to deal from a position of strength. “......and he doesn't follow a teleprompter or use a hand full of notes...he simply talks what he believes....true or not makes no difference...he 'presents himself as believable' and a strong leader just the same....and for that can elude confidence which he also projects. I listened to his many of his speeches and his Q&E's....he's very comfortable with his people and with his position. His body language, his demeanor and especially the ease which he speaks does indeed remind people of how our leadership once was....we have none now and we know that....but i do think some are in the pipeline.
44 posted on 04/17/2014 10:10:04 PM PDT by caww
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To: bigheadfred
....”Putin exhibits many attributes Americans find lacking in their own leaders. America used to deal from a position of strength. “......and he doesn't follow a teleprompter or use a hand full of notes...he simply talks what he believes....true or not makes no difference...he 'presents himself as believable' and a strong leader just the same....and for that can elude confidence which he also projects. I listened to his many of his speeches and his Q&E's....he's very comfortable with his people and with his position. His body language, his demeanor and especially the ease which he speaks does indeed remind people of how our leadership once was....we have none now and we know that....but i do think some are in the pipeline.
45 posted on 04/17/2014 10:10:05 PM PDT by caww
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To: HiTech RedNeck

relax

My cat is female. She is a bit prideful (pun intended).

She has no problem killing ‘rats.

and prideful she leaves them on the doorstep rug for me to step in at 4 am when I get up for work and step out for the first smoke of the day

i like the feel of ‘rat guts squishing up between my toes in the morning

Ifn I don’t get back to you sooner HAPPY EASTER


46 posted on 04/17/2014 10:36:38 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: 1rudeboy

just a rainbow in the dark


47 posted on 04/17/2014 10:39:55 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: Kennard
Putin is not remotely pro-life.

I doubt he is personally pro-life, in the sense of valuing human life intrinsically, absent political or demographic reasons, but he is cutting abortions to increase the population as others have said.

48 posted on 04/17/2014 10:43:08 PM PDT by steve86 (Acerbic by nature not nurture)
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To: Iron Munro
Which is the biggest threat to Europe and the USA?

Putin?

Islam?

Also suggested above:

Socialism

Liberalism

I was about to add "US weakness / US lack of integrity / US forgetting WHY we have been the global "enforcer" of international order (relatively speaking) for a generation... But then (except for the forgetfulness) that all sort of fits under liberalism if one considers the bigger picture. That's not to say libs won't bomb the daylights out of people, Libya or Serbia being examples.

At any rate, these things cannot be considered in isolation. Radical Islam is probably the lesser threat, but it would be only a moderate problem if European people were not so lib. (The US, due to 911, is somewhat more on guard, tho' with Obambi in charge, that too is now questionable.)

Putin similarly would not be a major threat if it were not for Western weakness, though he does have his act together in a way the Muslims never will. However, it is the long term repercussions outside of Russia, of Russia's new expansionism without firm response from the West, that is truly dangerous.

We have on FR a lot of posters who seem blissfully or willfully ignorant of a crucial question:

In a nuclear age, and keeping the history of human behavior well in mind, what is the practical alternative, for freedom loving Americans, to the US being THE "International Cop"?

49 posted on 04/18/2014 6:26:33 AM PDT by Paul R. (Leftists desire to control everything; In the end they invariably control nothing worth a damn.)
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To: caww
Putin could pretty much take Ukraine if he wanted

Why would he want much of what's left? I could see Donetsk as an independent state; they've seemed quite competent in managing the dissent. But the rest of Ukraine? The best the EU and Russia could hope for is stopping them from starting a world war. Perhaps there's a portion of western Ukraine that would do well with the EU, if they wanted to subsidize them. Any Oblast that doesn't have overwhelming support for one view of the other would just bring headaches. JMHO

50 posted on 04/18/2014 6:37:23 AM PDT by grania
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