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2013--- The amazing, surprising, Africa-driven demographic future of the Earth, in 9 charts
.washingtonpost. ^ | July 16, 2013 | Max Fisher

Posted on 04/19/2014 9:55:28 AM PDT by dennisw

Traffic moves through downtown Lagos, Nigeria.

The United Nations Population Division, which tracks demographic data from around the world, has dramatically revised its projections for what will happen in the next 90 years. The new statistics, based on in-depth survey data from sub-Saharan Africa, tell the story of a world poised to change drastically over the next several decades. Most rich countries will shrink and age (with a couple of important exceptions), poorer countries will expand rapidly and, maybe most significant of all, Africa will see a population explosion nearly unprecedented in human history.

If these numbers turn out to be right – they're just projections and could change significantly under unforeseen circumstances – the world of 2100 will look very different than the world of today, with implications for everyone. It will be a place where today's dominant, developed economies are increasingly focused on supporting the elderly, where the least developed countries are transformed by population booms and where Africa, for better or worse, is more important than ever.

Here is the story of the next 90 years as predicted by UN demographic data and explained in nine charts. The charts are interactive; move your cursor over them to track and compare the data.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: africa; demographics
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1 posted on 04/19/2014 9:55:28 AM PDT by dennisw
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To: dennisw

(1) The big story will be Africa

Right now, with a couple of exceptions, Africa’s population density is relatively low; it’s a very big continent more sparsely populated than, say, Europe or East Asia. That’s changing very quickly. The continent’s overall population is expected to more than quadruple over just 90 years, an astonishingly rapid growth that will make Africa more important than ever.

And it’s not just that there will four times the workforce, four times the resource burden, four times as many voters. The rapid growth itself will likely transform political and social dynamics within African countries and thus their relationship with the rest of the world. (More on this further down.)


2 posted on 04/19/2014 9:56:19 AM PDT by dennisw (The first principle is to find out who you are then you can achieve anything -- Buddhist monk)
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To: dennisw

Very interesting.
They must have made a lot of progress against AIDS?


3 posted on 04/19/2014 9:57:39 AM PDT by nascarnation (Toxic Baraq Syndrome: hopefully infecting a Dem candidate near you)
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To: dennisw

Africa has not changed much in all it’s history. Imagine people living in mud huts in this day and age. It is their gov’ts they have that keep them living like the socialists/dictators want them too.


4 posted on 04/19/2014 10:01:34 AM PDT by minnesota_bound
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To: dennisw

Africa: The Failed Continent


5 posted on 04/19/2014 10:03:26 AM PDT by clintonh8r (Don't give up! The liberals are buggering and aborting themselves into extinction.)
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To: dennisw

They need an Ataturk or some other forward thinker who can grind the old tribalism under foot and usher in an age of reason and Weaternism.


6 posted on 04/19/2014 10:03:30 AM PDT by Bogey78O (We had a good run. Coulda been great still.)
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To: dennisw
A continuing load of BS. I went to school in the 50s and 60s and recall how we were taught Africa was the "sleeping giant" that would soon awaken and rule the world.
I still remember thinking to myself - rule how? ... they're all uneducated savages living in deserts or jungles.
7 posted on 04/19/2014 10:10:23 AM PDT by oh8eleven (RVN '67-'68)
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To: minnesota_bound

The politically correct crowd says that Africa has problems due to the last vestiges of colonialism.

Not unlike how the politically correct crowd in America blames residual racism, the legacy of slavery and Jim Crow, etc. for problems among minorities.

One by one, countries in Africa gained independence, and so many of them have gone downhill in many ways since they became independent countries. How can they realistically blame colonialism for their problems 50 or 60 years later????


8 posted on 04/19/2014 10:12:16 AM PDT by Dilbert San Diego (Im)
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To: dennisw

There is no need for us to wonder what is wrong with Africa.

We have experienced African leadership ourselves.....


9 posted on 04/19/2014 10:13:49 AM PDT by Iron Munro (NSA reports Malaysia Flight 370 black box signals detected in Bermuda Triangle)
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To: dennisw
Color me skeptical.
To guess Africa's future by extrapolating from Asia's success story is invalid. Japan, China, and Korea have long been populated by intelligent hard-working people with national identities. This is not generally true of Africa. There are some smart, hard-working people there, but the vast majority are barely able to survive, much less make huge strides in bettering themselves. Then you have the widespread tribalism, which will lead to wars and more ethnic cleansing like Rwanda.
10 posted on 04/19/2014 10:20:25 AM PDT by expat2
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To: expat2

As always, the Left must, must, MUST ignore the simple Truth that Culture matters.


11 posted on 04/19/2014 10:22:12 AM PDT by Teacher317 (We have now sunk to a depth at which restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men)
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To: dennisw

It won’t happen if they don’t have the food sources and clean water to support the population growth, or the natural resources and infrastructure to support it.


12 posted on 04/19/2014 10:22:50 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: dennisw

so much for the population depleting AIDS epidemic


13 posted on 04/19/2014 10:23:51 AM PDT by LeoWindhorse
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To: dennisw

But why do I think it not a UN prediction. .it a UN agenda..a prophecy they intend to see gets fulfilled


14 posted on 04/19/2014 10:23:55 AM PDT by tophat9000 (Are we headed to a Cracker Slacker War?)
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To: dennisw
The Philippines and some of your east Asian countries have a better chance at that than the whole continent of Africa.
The Asians have a difference mindset.... that is ? if they can get rid of their corrupt governments.
I even had Asian people tell me how the mind set of the descendents of the African people are and in how they are slothful, and this is not white people saying this, this is Asians.
15 posted on 04/19/2014 10:30:02 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: dennisw
Very pretty colored lines on multiple graphs!

At the very end of the article he mentions: "And that's the story of the world's demographic future, nine decades of population booms and declines that will have unforeseeable but surely transformative political and economic consequences.

When you add tribalism and the problem if food production hampered by corruption and governmental incompetence, my guess is that his projections "ain't gonna happen!"

16 posted on 04/19/2014 10:31:26 AM PDT by BwanaNdege
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To: dennisw

Yeah, the only thing we need to do is pay “reparations”, maybe by means of a “Global Warming” tax on rich nations in order to launder welfare payments to third world nations through the U.N.

That should fix everything.


17 posted on 04/19/2014 10:36:39 AM PDT by SharpRightTurn (White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: Bogey78O

It has long been my thought that there will be migration into Africa by the growing populations in Asia,specifically India.

Africa has wide open spaces and what seems to be a passive, less educable population that can be dominated by the middle class Indians. Indians are or seem to have no tradition of operations beyond their traditional tribal borders. It is my thought that the aggressive migration pressure will force the move into Africa.

That is essentially the same force now in process here with the pressure being exerted in the south. The same for Europe, the force coming from North Africa and the middle east.


18 posted on 04/19/2014 10:38:29 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... History is a process, not an event)
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To: American Constitutionalist

They’ve got the natural resources at least. That’s the one thing they have in abundance.


19 posted on 04/19/2014 10:41:29 AM PDT by nooooo
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To: dennisw
and unless the rest of the world feeds them, most of them will starve...
20 posted on 04/19/2014 10:41:41 AM PDT by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -vvv- NO Pity for the LAZY - 86-44)
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To: dennisw

Africa has been The Next Big Thing since 1960.


21 posted on 04/19/2014 10:43:38 AM PDT by Paladin2
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To: dennisw

And we can’t overlook the AIDS epidemic going on there. . .and with illegal aliens flooding in from places like Africa, carrying with them all sorts of nasty diseases and such, and with third-world mind-set when it comes to keeping he body clean, we in the states will suffer an explosion of ‘eradicated’ third-world aliments.

Oh joy. . .


22 posted on 04/19/2014 10:44:29 AM PDT by Hulka
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To: dennisw
If you could go back in time to a bookstore of the 1970s (i.e. Paperback Booksmith), the shelves would be full of books proclaiming the coming overpopulation "bomb", world famine, global cooling (ice age coming!), that we were running out of something vital to our existence, whether it be oil, oxygen, water, or fish, and so on.

According to all those alarmist paperback books by "renowned" scientists, experts and other over-educated twerps who were allergic to real work, we were all supposed to be dead by 1990, give or take.

Then along came skeptics/satirists like P.J. O'Rourke and Tom Wolfe, to make fun of them all and make their alarmist pronouncements seem silly. But that didn't stop them from getting Nobel prizes and Pulitzers for their dopey theories.

23 posted on 04/19/2014 10:45:37 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: nooooo
That maybe true, but ? how about the infrastructure ?

2 big things though, Food and Water.

How much farm land do they actually have ?


24 posted on 04/19/2014 10:47:05 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: bert

Dos India have the exportable middle class for that? I can understand the logic since it would be a cheap move comparatively versus Europe or Americas but without a glut of mobile professionals and a hospitable environment, it seems like Africa would chew them up.


25 posted on 04/19/2014 10:48:43 AM PDT by Bogey78O (We had a good run. Coulda been great still.)
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To: bert

Got to protect the wildlife there in Africa.... got to take huge swaths of land and turn it into animal refuge, like the Federal government is doing here in the USA.


26 posted on 04/19/2014 10:49:21 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: SamAdams76

In my view, there is a difference in Africa. Africa has not the means to prevent nor stop some terrible plague that could kill millions in the large cities once begun.


27 posted on 04/19/2014 10:49:35 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... History is a process, not an event)
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To: SamAdams76

The big difference between then and now is that they control the gov’t and they’ll be damned if it’s going to be avoided.

We gave thew keys to the church to Jim Jones and we’re surprised the Kool-Aid at the mixer tastes funny.


28 posted on 04/19/2014 10:50:21 AM PDT by Bogey78O (We had a good run. Coulda been great still.)
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To: dennisw

Wishful thinking from the We H8 Whitey crowd at WaPo.

Absent massive material aid from the exterior of Africa, they will end up living in thatched huts on meager food supplies as their population outruns the capability of their ‘societies’ to feed them.

They will resort to collectivist solutions run by Big Chief Strongmen like South America, ending in food shortages, panics, massacres and chaos.

Throw in intertribal hostility and you get 1000 Rwandas.

The population will thus self control through the usual evolutionary mechanisms.


29 posted on 04/19/2014 10:56:32 AM PDT by Regulator
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To: Bogey78O

You raise a good question.

I base my thoughts on Indian populations here and Saudi Arabia. We have an explosion of multigenerational Indian families that pretty much have taken over the running of hotels/motels. There are professionals and doctors forming the basis of Indian communities in some rather small American cities. The same is true of doctors and engineers and accountants and such in the Gulf region.

In my thought some will migrate from where they are to Africa where they will be in control rather than in the background. They will expand in to large colonies in East Africa drawing others from their home in India.

They will grow and get control over time.


30 posted on 04/19/2014 10:57:17 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... History is a process, not an event)
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To: dennisw


......strongly suggest that U.S. leadership within the developed world will only strengthen...



Now it all makes sense.
As usual the US is far ahead of the game.
Even there president is ::
strong African, Indian, Asian, (looking).
little Europian,
just like the next 90 years.
I have to start believing in Conspiracies.

31 posted on 04/19/2014 11:03:49 AM PDT by Koracan
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To: bert
It has long been my thought that there will be migration into Africa by the growing populations in Asia,specifically India.

Africa has wide open spaces and what seems to be a passive, less educable population that can be dominated by the middle class Indians.

They've come and gone and won't be going back any more than the English and French governments will.

Look up what happened in Uganda under Amin.

China, though, probably will play a major role in African development.

32 posted on 04/19/2014 11:05:49 AM PDT by x
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To: bert

There are indeed a lot of descendants of South Asians in Africa. Not only that, there is some movement towards Africans converting to Hinduism, even though Hinduism does not proselytize and there is no traditional way to ‘convert’ to it.


33 posted on 04/19/2014 11:15:34 AM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: Regulator

The easily farmable land is already in use. They can grow more using irrigaion and fertilizer, but the resulting food will cost more than Africans can pay.

Perhaps the Chinese will come in and play “cowboys and Africans”?


34 posted on 04/19/2014 11:18:34 AM PDT by SauronOfMordor (Socialists want YOUR wealth redistributed, never THEIRS!)
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To: SauronOfMordor

Probably.

They will be ruthless in ways the Indians and Europeans will not, and no one will criticize.

The Africans will end up as slaves in everything but name only.

But it’s either that or regular overpopulation / starvation cycles for them.


35 posted on 04/19/2014 11:29:41 AM PDT by Regulator
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To: Regulator

More likely the Africans will be exterminated.


36 posted on 04/19/2014 11:34:03 AM PDT by SauronOfMordor (Socialists want YOUR wealth redistributed, never THEIRS!)
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To: expat2

The article is a pro immigration piece-——suggests that immigration will save the USA.

.


37 posted on 04/19/2014 11:34:36 AM PDT by Mears
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To: SauronOfMordor

Now now...not supposed to breathe the truth....


38 posted on 04/19/2014 11:41:14 AM PDT by Regulator
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To: nooooo
They’ve got the natural resources at least.

They've also got rampant corruption, a socialist attitude that scares off business, widespread laziness, and a tendency to kill one another in large numbers.

Don't see that changing, even in 90 years.


39 posted on 04/19/2014 12:15:57 PM PDT by canuck_conservative
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To: dennisw

Right now, with a couple of exceptions, Africa’s population density is relatively low; it’s a very big continent more sparsely populated than, say, Europe or East Asia. That’s changing very quickly. The continent’s overall population is expected to more than quadruple over just 90 years, an astonishingly rapid growth that will make Africa more important than ever.

And it’s not just that there will four times the workforce, four times the resource burden, four times as many voters. The rapid growth itself will likely transform political and social dynamics within African countries and thus their relationship with the rest of the world.


Not to mention eradicating all non-human life on the continent. Even now with it’s “low” population density and being “sparsely populated”, wildlife is being erased at a staggering level to make room for people.


40 posted on 04/19/2014 12:41:57 PM PDT by chessplayer
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To: Iron Munro
There is no need for us to wonder what is wrong with Africa.
We have experienced African leadership ourselves.....

What I was thinking too!!! We have our own Supreme Emperor Hussein Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho 

alt

41 posted on 04/19/2014 12:49:18 PM PDT by dennisw (The first principle is to find out who you are then you can achieve anything -- Buddhist monk)
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To: bert

China is colonizing Africa economically and politically, from using it as a dumping ground for really cheap knock off goods to buying large chunks of farmland there to mining.


42 posted on 04/19/2014 1:07:26 PM PDT by tbw2
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To: tophat9000
But why do I think it not a UN prediction. .it a UN agenda..a prophecy they intend to see gets fulfilled

Fortunately, it is literally, physically impossible.
All large African cities, sustained by foreign charity, are one epidemic away from extinction.

43 posted on 04/19/2014 2:40:44 PM PDT by publius911 ( At least Nixon had the good g race to resign!)
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To: American Constitutionalist
At least in Africa when they set aside land for wildlife refuges, it brings in foreign tourists to see the wildlife. Whether the country in question comes out ahead economically, I'm not sure.

We may see something similar in Nevada after the BLM drives Bundy off his ranch: the Desert Tortoise National Park. Hordes of tourists, probably thousands every year, will flock to the site to see the tortoises in their natural habitat. Schoolchildren will be taught to venerate the name of Harry Reid as a great conservationist, up there with John Muir, Theodore Roosevelt, and Gifford Pinchot.

44 posted on 04/19/2014 3:16:52 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus (ADES)
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To: dennisw

How did their last 30 years of demographic predictions turn out?


45 posted on 04/20/2014 5:44:47 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: dennisw

Camp of the Saints comes to mind.


46 posted on 04/20/2014 5:49:11 AM PDT by Altura Ct. (i)
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To: dennisw

four times the resource burden = four times the opportunity


47 posted on 04/20/2014 5:50:40 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: American Constitutionalist

But, what if a group of liberty minded individuals were to carve out a coastal city, write a Constitution much like our own, and thrive there much like Hong Kong?


48 posted on 04/20/2014 5:52:39 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Hulka

You cannot overlook a culture that rationalizes raping a baby to remove your curse of AIDS.


49 posted on 04/20/2014 5:53:58 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: dennisw

Sub-Saharan Africa is genetically defective. When genetic science catches up to empirical observations, Sub-Saharan Africans will be like Zombies in the gene pool.


50 posted on 04/20/2014 5:55:08 AM PDT by anton
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