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Why climate deniers are winning: The twisted psychology that overwhelms scientific consensus
Salon ^ | April 19, 2014 | Paul Rosenberg

Posted on 04/19/2014 2:12:56 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

There's a reason why overwhelming evidence hasn't spurred public action against global warming.

In the run-up to Earth Day this year, two major reports were released by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the largest such body in the world. On March 31, Working Group II released its report, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, and on April 13, Working Group III released its report, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Both reports cited substantially more evidence of substantially more global warming and related impacts than past reports have, and they did so more lucidly than in past iterations.

As climate scientist and communicator Katharine Hayhoe told Salon, “This time around, to its credit, the IPCC has gotten a lot more serious about improving its ability to communicate the report’s message, through graphics and other ancillary products.” There was also a greater sophistication in how to conceptualize, measure and compare things, even where substantial uncertainties are involved. And there was a substantial list of more than 90 major impacts already recorded on every part of the planet.

Yet, one of the most disturbing stories to emerge around the reports was the New York Times report that language about the need for $100 billion in crisis funds to aid poor nations was removed from the Working Group III executive summary for policymakers during the final round of editing. The action neatly encapsulated the yawning gap between the growing danger of climate change — and growing maturity of climate scientists — on the one hand, and the utter lack of political will on the other.

But the growing sophistication of the scientific community is a cause for continued hope — if they can accelerate their learning curve, and follow the right path. They no longer mistakenly assume that the facts can “speak for themselves,” and they’ve gotten much better at developing ways to communicate lucidly about complex challenges and uncertainty. But the entrenched denialist, do-nothing opposition is still winning when it comes to writing the checks. If that’s to change, Australian psychologist Stephan Lewandowsky will almost certainty be part of the reason why.

Reframing Uncertainty

One reason global warming opponents still have the upper hand is basic confusion over the nature and significance of uncertainty. “There are numerous instances in which politicians and opinion makers stated that ‘there is still so much uncertainty, we shouldn’t invest money to solve the climate problem,’” Lewandowsky explained to Salon. Now he has just co-authored two related articles on scientific uncertainty and climate change — “Part I. Uncertainty and unabated emissions” and “Part II. Uncertainty and mitigation” — which show this thinking is completely backwards. “This is shown to be wrong by our analysis, because uncertainty can never be too great for action. On the contrary, uncertainty implies that the problem is more likely to be worse than expected in the absence of that uncertainty.”

It’s a simple fact that your typical scientist already knows intuitively: Uncertainty grows with risk, exposure and potential loss, especially with complex nonlinear systems, like the global climate system. In fact, it’s not even possible to calculate how much damage could come from worst-case climate scenarios, as Working Group III lead co-author Christopher Field pointed out at the press conference for their report. The relationship between greater uncertainty and risk is both obvious to those in the know and invisible to those who aren’t. So it’s never been properly talked about — or even rigorously analyzed — until now.

“Basically, we tried a new mathematical approach that is called ‘ordinal,’” Lewandowsky said. “An ordinal method allows us to address questions such as: ‘What would the consequences be if uncertainty is even greater than we think it is?’ That is, ordinal questions refer to the order of things, such as ‘greater than’ or ‘lesser than,’ but don’t address absolute questions such as ‘how much.’”

So it doesn’t tell you how much worse things will get — which would certainly be nice to know — but it does tell you that they will get worse the more uncertain things are. In short, it gets you oriented in the right direction — 180 degrees away from where so-called “common sense” would take you. It puts you on the right path, asking the right kinds of questions, taking the right kinds of first steps, and avoiding getting lost in the confusion, mistakenly thinking that uncertainty means less to worry about. It’s hard to imagine a more basic finding.

“Using that approach we showed that as uncertainty in the temperature increase expected with a doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial levels rises, so do the economic damages of increased climate change,” Lewandowsky continued. “Greater uncertainty also increases the likelihood of exceeding ‘safe’ temperature limits and the probability of failing to reach mitigation targets. Likewise, in the context of sea level rise, larger uncertainty requires greater precautionary action to manage flood risk.”

As for the impact on policy, Lewandowsky said, “We show that the adverse effects of uncertainty are ‘leveraged’ and hence amplified by more emissions. It follows that to reduce the adverse effects of uncertainty, we should curtail emissions. This is a pretty strong imperative, but our papers don’t prescribe an exact target for emissions. As I noted above, we cannot answer ‘how much’ questions, we can only say ‘less (pollution) is better.’”

Acceptance and Rejection of Science

But these two recent papers are only side of the story of what Lewandowsky has been up to. He’s also written a series of papers dealing with how people process information, either rejecting or accepting science. When I asked about the relationship, Lewandowsky replied,”The underlying ‘theme’ — if there is one — is how people respond to uncertainty or ambiguity. What the uncertainty papers analyze is how people should respond to uncertainty if they were mathematically-optimal. What my rejection-and-acceptance work shows is how people actually respond to things they perceive to be uncertain. So the two streams of research are opposing sides of the coin — what reality actually means and how people interpret it.”

There’s also quite a bit more controversy surrounding this work — some of it intellectual, some anti-intellectual. In a 2012 paper, “The pivotal role of perceived scientific consensus in acceptance of science,” Lewandowsky and his co-authors reported on two studies. The first showed that acceptance of several scientific propositions — including the acceptance of HIV causing AIDS, smoking causing lung cancer, and human CO2 emissions causing global warming — were all manifestations of a common factor, which in turn is correlated with a factor reflecting perceived scientific consensus. In short, the more that people perceived scientific consensus, the more they accepted scientific findings.

The second study demonstrated a causal relationship, showing that acceptance of human-caused (anthropogenic) global warming (AGW) increases when the scientific consensus is highlighted. Subjects were divided into two groups, the “control” group subjects “greatly underestimated the AGW consensus” at 67 percent, while the second group, exposed to a graph and text highlighting the 97 percent consensus among climate scientists, still underestimated the consensus, but by much less — placing it at 88 percent. Not only did acceptance of global warming increase, the most dramatic finding was the neutralization of the effect of worldview, which otherwise had a significant impact. While there were significant differences due to worldview in the control group, the differences were “effectively nonexistent” for those exposed to consensus information, even though that information was only partially absorbed.

The impact of worldview can informally be seen in partisan trend polling data on global warming evidence perception from Pew (graph here), as well as snapshot data showing Tea Party Republicans as significant outliers, with views significantly different from other Republicans, whose views are surprisingly close to average. Academics take a more rigorous approach toward worldviews, though their specific methods may vary. In this case, worldview was measured via five items expressing attitudes about the free market.

Dan Kahan is a leading researcher who’s skeptical of the implications of this paper. He’s done extensive research into the resilience of perceptions, regardless of contrary information, and finds strong evidence of “identity-protective cognition” among people of all different worldviews. (He uses a two-dimensional model, as opposed to a more common one-dimensional left/right one.) Kahan was the subject of Ezra Klein’s first cover story at Vox.com, and I first wrote about his work in a three-part series at Open Left in January 2010. Not only has Kahan shown that people are resistent to information that challenges their identities and the worldviews that support them, he’s shown that more information tends to drive people apart in their views, rather than lead to convergence. People use more information to rationalize what they already believe, rather than to question and reformulate it. Kahan doesn’t doubt the results Lewandowski reported, he just thinks they won’t stand up in the real world, in part because they haven’t so far. (Kahan and Lewandowski debated each other on the Inquiring Minds podcast co-hosted by Salon contributor Chris Mooney — write-up and podcast here.)

“The reason ‘consensus’ has not appeared to work in society at large to date isn’t because it’s ineffective — it’s because there is a well-funded countermovement out there that takes every opportunity to mislead the public into thinking that there isn’t a consensus,” Lewandowsky told me, in response to this argument.

But Kahan stresses it as an inescapable fact. “The real world has counter-messaging in it That’s one reason the experimental studies aren’t externally valid, in my view,” he said. “Unless those counseling ‘broadcast 97 percent’ have a plan for stifling all the culturally grounded cues that real people will be exposed to that motivate them to discount the ’97 percent’ message — as they’ve been doing for 10 years — it is bad advice, in my view, to tell communicators that they can expect ’97 percent’ to work in the world as it does in the lab.”

This is clearly the challenge — how to take Lewandowsky’s results out of the lab. He doesn’t have a plan, per se, but he does have a sense of direction, and a track record, and a growing community of like-minded collaborators to work with. Kahan and Lewandowsky differ most on how to reach conservatives and libertarians, but there’s potentially more acheivable progress to be made within the ranks of the reality-based community itself. To get the full picture of what this means, we first need to develop two historical threads — the growing understanding of the scientific process and its interactions with the wider world, which involves a widening circle of other experts, and the growing understanding of what stands in its way, which will bring us back to another emerging aspect of Lewandowky’s work.

Establishing Consensus

To begin the first thread, we need to go back to 2004. That’s when science historian Naomi Oreskes first published an initial survey of global warming literature, “Beyond The Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change.” Climate scientists had long known that there was an overwhelming consensus on anthropogenic global warming, but Oreskes was the first to take a scientific approach to studying that consensus — just as Lewandowsky, more recently, has been the first to formalize what scientists informally knew about uncertainty.

Oreskes analyzed “928 abstracts, published in refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, and listed in the ISI database with the keywords ‘climate change.’” She found that 75 percent of papers accepted the consensus view “either explicitly or implicitly,” while “25 percent dealt with methods or paleoclimate,” and took no position on AGW. “Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position,” she found. Later studies have found a small sliver of dissenting views, but the more the consensus has been studied, the sturdier it appears, while the dissenting literature is dogged with repeated problems.

For example, a 2010 paper, “Expert credibility in climate change,” recomfirmed the 97 percent consensus figure, and found that “the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC [or AGW] are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.” A 2013 paper, “Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature,” examined “11,944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011” and found that “97.1 percent endorsed the consensus position,” while a parallel self-rating survey found that “97.2 percent endorsed the consensus.”

One of the co-authors of the 2013 study, Dana Nuccitelli, co-writes the Guardian’s “Climate Consensus — The 97%” blog. In an April 14 entry, he showed how far the study of climate science itself can take us in understanding the workings of anti-science as well. He detailed “4 ways contrarian papers get published: (1) Flawed paper gets into credible journal, (2) Flawed paper gets into off-topic journal, (3) Contrarian editor gets into journal, (4) Vanity journal created by contrarians.” But that wasn’t the primary topic of his column. His primary topic was the climate contrarian backlash against Lewandowsky’s work on the second thread mentioned above — the growing understanding of what stands in the way of science, which began with worldviews and branched out from there.

Conspiracist Ideation — Better than Science at Playing Its Own Game

Taking up that second thread, in 2013, Lewandowsky co-authored two papers probing more deeply into the role of what’s known as “motivated reasoning” as an obstacle to scientific knowledge. In “The Role of Conspiracist Ideation and Worldviews in Predicting Rejection of Science,” he approached the influence of worldviews and conspiratorial thinking (AKA “conspiracist ideation”) as related types of motivated reasoning which interfere with scientific truth-seeking. In this instance, worldviews included both liberals vs. conservatives and free market orientation. Conspiracist ideation can be found across the ideological spectrum — even in the center, much to the chagrin of some — but it functions in similar patterns to resist unwanted information, regardless of subject matter.

Lewandowsky and his co-authors took a closer look at conspiracism specifically in the other paper, “NASA Faked the Moon Landing — Therefore, (Climate) Science Is a Hoax: An Anatomy of the Motivated Rejection of Science.” The second paper touched a real nerve, producing a great deal of conspiracy theorizing about Lewandowsky himself, his co-authors and others. So, naturally, being a good scientist, Lewandowsky decided to study that as well. The result was a third paper, “Recursive Fury: Conspiracist ideation in the blogosphere in response to research on conspiracist ideation,” which was subsequently retracted by the publisher, following sharp attacks from climate contrarians — even though the publisher found nothing scientifically or ethically wrong with the paper. Britain’s notoriously lax libel law (changed just this year) was supposedly the reason. Following a further retreat by the publisher, three editors with the journal resigned. Nuccitelli provides a good account in his column (as does Lewandowsky himself, here), where he notes that this is just the latest example of a pattern that’s played out before, but we need to go back and unpack the insights into conspiracist ideation that lie at the core of this work.

In the paper on conspiracist ideation and worldviews, the authors wrote, “The prominence of conspiracist ideation in science rejection is not unexpected in light of its cognitive attributes.” For one thing, it provides an out for people who don’t like what the consensus says. “If you are faced with agreement among scientists, you have two choices,” Lewandowsky told me. “You either accept that they are on to something or… You think they all conspire to create a hoax for some nefarious reason. There aren’t too many other options, are there?”

“When you look at the history of science denial, there is plenty of evidence that a scientific consensus drives deniers into postulating such a conspiracy — from tobacco to AIDS to climate.”

A second reason conspiracist ideation crops up in resisting science is that it has greater explanatory reach than science, because it’s not constrained by “the criteria of consistency and coherence that characterize scientific reasoning.”

“In the case of climate, this is — humorously — known as the ‘Quantum theory of denial,’” Lewandowsky told me. “Deniers will claim in the same breath (or within a few minutes) that (a) temperatures cannot be measured reliably, (b) there is definitely no warming, (c) the warming isn’t caused by humans, and (d) we are doing ourselves a favor by warming the planet. The four propositions are incoherent because they cannot all be simultaneously true — and yet deniers will utter all those in close succession all the time.”

Finally, conspiracist ideation is also typically immune to falsification, “because contradictory evidence (e.g., climate scientists being exonerated of accusations) can be accommodated by broadening the scope of the conspiracy (exonerations are a whitewash), often with considerable creativity.”

“One good example for this is Jim Sensenbrenner, a Republican congressman who called the exonerations of climate scientists after ‘climategate’ a ‘whitewash,’” Lewandowsky said. “This happens all the time, and sometimes takes on rather baroque forms, e.g., when the United Nations is invoked.” Lewandowksy sometimes refers to this as the “self-sealing” property of conspiracist ideation. It can be absolutely maddening to try to argue against.

When I asked about other aspects of conspiracist ideation, I questioned whether it didn’t reflect a quest for meaning, at the expense of information, along the lines of the mythos/logos distinction drawn by Karen Armstrong in “The Battle For God.” Lewandowsky agreed.

“One of the aspects of conspiratorial thinking is — paradoxically — that it gives people a sense of control because it gives meaning to apparent randomness. It may be more comforting to some people to think that 9/11 was an “inside job” than accepting that it was a fairly random event triggered by a few fanatics.” Even more in line with Armstrong’s thinking, he added, “I also think that there is a lot of identity politics in this, e.g., if Republicans generally think that climate change is a hoax, then it becomes a ‘tribal totem’ for others to pick up on this.”

As a further refinement, I noted that conspiracist ideation thrives on creating specific malicious others as a particuarly powerful form of meaning-making. “Yes, absolutely,” Lewandowsky responded. “There is this tension between ‘victim’ and ‘hero’ within the conspiracist worldview that leads to those contradictory positions. On the one hand (the ‘hero’ frame) it is permissible to accuse scientists of fraud and harass them, but by the same token (‘victim’ frame) scientists must do nothing to cast aspersions on the accusers or to defend themselves. Arthur Koestler has referred to those people as ‘mimophants.’ It is crucial for the public to understand this.”

With these insights in mind, the experience of what happened with “Recursive Fury” becomes a tremendous learning opportunity — though, as Nuccitelli points out, it’s an opportunity that’s been repeatedly missed in the past.

Lessons to Learn

But there’s a pattern here on the positive side as well. In 2004, Oreskes reframed the informal experience of climate consensus as a subject for formal knowledge — and that has helped climate scientists gain a much better self-understanding of what they’re doing, through a succession of further studies. Likewise, just this past month, Lewandowsky’s uncertainty papers have taken the informal knowledge that uncertainty means more unkown risk, and reframed uncertainty as the subject for scientific study. It’s too soon to know what will happen as a result, but the potential is obvious if we can put an end to knee-jerk do-nothing arguments based on uncertainty.

Likewise, the dysfunctional impact of conspiracist ideation is just one example of how the scientific community itself has an underdeveloped immune system — as does the much broader “reality-based community,” which takes science seriously as a primary source of information. There would be great potential for any project that would take this informally recognized (by some) reality and make it the subject for rigorous scrutiny, just as Oreskes did in 2004 or as Lewandowksy did this year. That’s a tall order, but it’s possible that the two of them just might do something like that. They are currently working together on a paper on the effects of denial on the scientific community. It’s obviously way too soon to say what it will look like, much less what impact it will have. But we do know that bringing “peripheral,” informally known subject matter to light can be an incredibly powerful way of moving human understanding forward. And there’s no field of human understanding that needs that more than the science of saving our planet — and, not incidentally, ourselves.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: aljazeera; anwr; climatechange; climatedeniers; demagogicparty; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax; gorebullwarming; homosexualagenda; ipcc; keystonexl; memebuilding; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; paulrosenberg; salon; science
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Paul Rosenberg is a California-based writer/activist, senior editor for Random Lengths News, and a columnist for Al Jazeera English.
1 posted on 04/19/2014 2:12:56 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I seem to recall that Galileo was a ‘denier of scientific consensus’ in his day.


2 posted on 04/19/2014 2:14:00 PM PDT by relictele (Principiis obsta & Finem respice - Resist The Beginnings & Consider The End)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Climate deniers just don’t have their heads screwed up their collective rectums and inhale the smoke being blown up their butts.


3 posted on 04/19/2014 2:15:27 PM PDT by vetvetdoug
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Climate Deniers?

Dogma of the Skank Whores.


4 posted on 04/19/2014 2:15:50 PM PDT by Gene Eric (Don't be a statist!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Blather only a Chomsky could love.


5 posted on 04/19/2014 2:20:17 PM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

There is not a scientific consensus. As a PhD scientist with peer-reviewed published work in climatology, I can assure you that a large number of the best scientists in physics, geology, meteorology believe that the climate activists are exaggerating the effect of man on global temperatures for political and financial reasons.


6 posted on 04/19/2014 2:23:20 PM PDT by expat2
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Just received a mailer from PG&E that refers to 'climate change' as if it were fact and what we can do about it.

They obviously have no interest in the truth of the matter. They are moving ahead and its gonna cost us big time.

7 posted on 04/19/2014 2:23:56 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If the nut jobs had such a good thing ,why did they have to change the name from Global Warming to Climate Change and I think Algore tried to change it a few times more ,like Dirty Weather ,LOL


8 posted on 04/19/2014 2:24:03 PM PDT by molson209 (Blank)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Like a “writer/activist” has any credibility on this subject.


9 posted on 04/19/2014 2:25:19 PM PDT by Menehune56 ("Let them hate so long as they fear" (Oderint Dum Metuant), Lucius Accius (170 BC - 86 BC))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Liberals of course manipulate science to advance profound irrational goals.

Climate change has not been scientifically established as a fact. All the proponents by their own admission, are guessing! If was true we’d have facts to substantiate it.

There are none. And earth’s weather patterns are still poorly understood - not to the point that it justifies controversial changes in economic and social policies.

To the author, ridicule the critics and hope they don’t notice the Climate Change Emperor Wears No Clothes. An ad hominem argument is not a sound strategy.


10 posted on 04/19/2014 2:25:25 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Gene Eric

Just because the food served at a 5 star restaurant looks artsy and has garnisments and is surrounded by fancy napkins and silverware doesn’t mean that it tastesone iota better (in fact it usually isn’t as good as some fast food drive thrus in my experience). Same with your words with scientific verbiage, fancy charts / graphs, and skewed conclusions to convince the political low brows that you need more money. You’re fooling no one. We just had record low temperatures this year but I guess THAT was caused by global warming, right?


11 posted on 04/19/2014 2:25:29 PM PDT by jsanders2001
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To: jsanders2001

Just because the food served at a 5 star restaurant looks artsy and has garnisments and is surrounded by fancy napkins and silverware doesn’t mean that it tastes one iota better (in fact it usually isn’t as good as some fast food drive thrus in my experience). Same with your reports with scientific verbiage, fancy charts / graphs, and skewed conclusions to convince the political low brows that you need more money. You’re fooling no one. We just had record low temperatures this year but I guess THAT was caused by global warming, right?


12 posted on 04/19/2014 2:27:17 PM PDT by jsanders2001
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Is it global warming or climate change now? I forget.

Every prediction by ALGORE and his ilk has been an epic fail - no warming in 17 years, 5 million+ square miles of Arctic ice, quite a bit more than his 2008 prediction that the Arctic would be ice free in 5 years, no cat 3+ hurricanes in almost a decade, least amount of tornadic activity in my lifetime, polar bears are multiplying, Florida still above water, and on and on...

Pretty graphics and more deceptive explanations will never trump TRUTH.


13 posted on 04/19/2014 2:28:32 PM PDT by Kandy Atz ("Were we directed from Washington when to sow and when to reap, we should soon want for bread.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

When will they address the models don’t match observations, until then, these climate scientists are living in a fantasy land.


14 posted on 04/19/2014 2:28:50 PM PDT by dila813
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Twisted psychology = The ability to spot a con when one sees one.


15 posted on 04/19/2014 2:30:54 PM PDT by Nachoman (Wisdom is learned, cynicism is earned.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
There's a reason why overwhelming evidence hasn't spurred public action against global warming.

You mean like there isn't any evidence of global warming to begin with?

Here in Northeast Illinois, we just had the four coldest months ON RECORD.

We've had more days below freezing (109) during the winter than any other winter. That's a record.

We've had more days start out below zero than any other winter in recorded history. Another record.

We've had more consecutive days below zero than any other time in recorded history. Another record.

The average daily temperature this winter was anywhere from 15-23 degrees below normal. On the coldest days of the winter where the temperature hit -35 degrees we were well over 50 degrees BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE. More records shattered.

We've had the third snowiest winter on record with over 82 inches of snow (normal is 30-32 inches.)

The Great Lakes were 97% frozen over for the first time in recorded history, and they had the thickest ice ever recorded.

In fact, the Great Lakes are STILL 40% frozen over and here we are in late April. That's never happened before either.

The ice that remains on the Great Lakes isn't expected to fully melt until well into May keeping Great Lakes water temperatures well below their norms, and affecting the temperature around the Great Lakes area.

Tell me again about this "global warming" .... we could really use some here!

16 posted on 04/19/2014 2:32:56 PM PDT by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
My problem with them is that all I ever hear in rebuttal to criticism are ad hominems. I'm OK with science establishing global warming, if that were the outcome of a full public discussion of the criticisms, even though it would be an area where my political philosophy were found wanting. But they don't even address the obvious criticisms, such as their model sliding off the cool end of the predictions, and the urbanization of temperature stations over the 20th century.
17 posted on 04/19/2014 2:33:05 PM PDT by InMemoriam
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change


             

18 posted on 04/19/2014 2:34:07 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The author and scientists are trying to confuse uncertainty with risk and impact. Increased uncertainty decreases the ability to mitigate risks, but it does not increase the impacts.


19 posted on 04/19/2014 2:35:53 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

There are so many logical fallacies in this one that it should be used as an example in Beginning Logic courses.

We can start with the understanding that there is no such thing as Scientific Consensus when applied to a Hypothesis (which AGW still is).

The fact climate models have gotten more complex doesn’t mean they have gotten more mature. As Wooden said, “do not confuse motion with progress.”

AGW is NOT a Scientific Theory. It meets zero criteria.

Thee difference is there has never been a case of wholesale bribery on both publishers and reviewers to support a Hypothesis. Even Cold Fusion, which would bring riches untold, was subject to the Scientific Process — which outed it as a sham.

In this case the message is simple: “come to this conclusion and get rich. You don’t have to worry about anyone falsifying it because the phenomena are so vague and broad that any conclusion is OK. We also are bribing the reviewers so you are good.”

Unprecedented in science.


20 posted on 04/19/2014 2:35:59 PM PDT by freedumb2003 (Fight Tapinophobia in all its forms! Do not submit to arduus privilege.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Point in case: Alex (dim)Witt at MSNBC was interviewing a mountain specialist discussing the mishap at Mt Everest. And she honestly slipped in...”do you think we had anything to do with the miuntain’s stability?” I couldn’t believe she actually said that.


21 posted on 04/19/2014 2:40:34 PM PDT by ThePatriotsFlag ("There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide." - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I guess I would have believed in the “consensus”, except for the fact that EVERYTHING they predicted did not occur. Just the opposite happened, so they went from “Global Warming” to “Climate Change”. Perhaps they are thinking I wouldn’t notice.


22 posted on 04/19/2014 2:44:02 PM PDT by GingisK
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Climate denier”? Even for a piece of blatant agitprop that’s pretty stupid. “Sure, I deny there’s a climate!” said no one ever.


23 posted on 04/19/2014 2:47:11 PM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
You either accept that they are on to something or… You think they all conspire to create a hoax for some nefarious reason.

Hmmmm... well, let's see:

1. No debate is allowed and vigorously vilified with Gestapo tactics.

2. Inconvenient pertinent data is ignored.

3. Empirical observations of change that goes against the narrative are dismissed and/or explained as irrelevant.

4. Scientific method is bastardized, ignored or criminally altered to achieve preconceived outcome.

5. All solutions are tax based, economy destroying, wealth redistribution.

6. Natural geological events are ignored.

and on and on and on......
24 posted on 04/19/2014 2:48:41 PM PDT by 98ZJ USMC
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"Lewandowsky" [herein after called The Loo] is a charlatan Psychologist who doesn't know squat about Science, proper Academic Ethical Procedures or Statistics.

The Loo is however a bombastic statist usurper of public moneys attempting to help other fanatics extremists carry Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming across the finish line.

25 posted on 04/19/2014 2:48:56 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The scientific evidence is clear and convincing. Global warming is a fraud and a hoax.


26 posted on 04/19/2014 2:50:50 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Lewandowsky’s uncertainty papers have taken the informal knowledge that uncertainty means more unkown risk, and reframed uncertainty as the subject for scientific study.

Uncertainty has long been a subject for much scientific scrutiny -- hasn't she heard of people like Bayes and Popper? As regards Lewandowski's work, see: http://joannenova.com.au/2012/09/lewandowksy-oberauer-gignac-is-the-paper-bad-enough-to-make-history/

27 posted on 04/19/2014 2:50:58 PM PDT by expat2
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

"Climate Change Hoax Deniers is soooooooo stupid!"
28 posted on 04/19/2014 2:51:35 PM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all -- Texas Eagle)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t deny that there is a climate.


29 posted on 04/19/2014 2:51:53 PM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas ( Isaiah 22:22, Matthew 16:19, Revelation 3:7)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

So a non-scientist thinks consensus has anything to do with science, and that anyone who disagrees with him is a benighted moron.

Sorry, no sale, and I’ve forgotten more of the relevant science than this propagandist will ever know.


30 posted on 04/19/2014 2:52:35 PM PDT by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: InMemoriam

....such as the cherry-picking of weather stations to include. Many sources of data in cold parts of the earth (e.g., N Russia) have been dropped from the averaging, which is obviously a cheap and easy way 0f getting apparent warming.


31 posted on 04/19/2014 2:55:36 PM PDT by expat2
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yes, sometimes the truth seems twisted from the obviously true fiction believed by the smartest people in the room.

Tomorrow, Christians celebrate Easter. This is a word that does not appear anywhere in the original language. In fact, it is a holy day that was devised (much like Kwanzaa) by a government in collusion with a powerful church. This new holiday served the interests of government to cement control over an empire, and it gave great power to the church that government gave authority to execute “heretics”.

The original Apostles did not observe it, but observed Passover on the 14th of Nisan.

There are a surprising number of Christians today who observe Passover on the 14th of Nisan and would never dream of observing Easter.

see:

Are You a Quartodeciman? Should You Be?
http://www.tomorrowsworld.org/magazines/2013/march-april/are-you-a-quartodeciman-should-you-be


32 posted on 04/19/2014 2:56:02 PM PDT by theBuckwheat
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Paul Rosenburg is apparently ignorant of why Recursive Fury was retracted. He writes:

“The result was a third paper, “Recursive Fury: Conspiracist ideation in the blogosphere in response to research on conspiracist ideation,” which was subsequently retracted by the publisher, following sharp attacks from climate contrarians — even though the publisher found nothing scientifically or ethically wrong with the paper. Britain’s notoriously lax libel law (changed just this year) was supposedly the reason.”

The actual reason it was retract from the editor-in-chief: http://www.frontiersin.org/blog/Rights_of_Human_Subjects_in_Scientific_Papers/830

If Paul Rosenburg wants to know why people don’t believe in Climate Change, he should look it a mirror. It isn’t uncertainty; it is lack of trust that guys like him will tell the truth.


33 posted on 04/19/2014 3:03:50 PM PDT by Chesterbelloc
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bfl


34 posted on 04/19/2014 3:13:01 PM PDT by CommieCutter ("For an idea to be too simplistic, it must first be proven wrong" --Thomas Sowell)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I searched for the word “China” to no avail. Anyone who claims combustion of carbon is producing a global crisis - but who says nothing about the fact that the Chinese are stamping out new coal-fired electric power plants like cookies - is promoting a political, not a scientific, agenda.
They can get back to us when they have something of scientific interest to discuss.
In the meanwhile, Phttt!

35 posted on 04/19/2014 3:18:47 PM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion ("Liberalism” is a conspiracy against the public by wire-service journalism.)
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To: conservatism_IS_compassion

Communists get a pass. See: Obama, Barack, Kerry, John and Fonda, Jane.


36 posted on 04/19/2014 3:20:55 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The biggest problem the climate fear mongers have is that they present no coherent approach to a solution. I’m sorry but people are not going to agree to sacrifice their standard of living, especially if not one prominent proponent (I’m looking at you, Mr. Gore) is willing to move into a small house and take public transit.

The really strange part is that they could easily find common ground with almost all skeptics if they would just embrace the only technology that could realistically reverse CO2 production. I’m referring to nuclear, of course. Now before any Green weenies wet their pants, let me say for the record that boiling water fission is the stupidest technology ever, as it can (and has) led to meltdowns and produced copious amounts of rad waste that no one seems bright enough to figure out what to do with.

What they should really want to get behind is thorium molten salt and pebble bed reactors. These technologies were proven in the 1950’s, are lower maintenance, melt down proof, and can even be made to use today’s waste as fuel.

This is how people with half a brain can understand that the IPCC and all the other climate mongrels aren’t serious about reducing CO2, none of them are going all in for nuclear. The only logical conclusion is their sole motivation is to increase taxes on the middle class and raise the price on all the staples the poor need to survive, lining their pockets in the process.


37 posted on 04/19/2014 3:24:04 PM PDT by Go_Raiders (Freedom doesn't give you the right to take from others, no matter how innocent your program sounds.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

He spews garbage. What a crock this article is!


38 posted on 04/19/2014 3:24:14 PM PDT by John Valentine (Deep in the Heart of Texas)
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To: relictele
yup, consensus is NOT science...
39 posted on 04/19/2014 3:27:22 PM PDT by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -vvv- NO Pity for the LAZY - 86-44)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“It’s a simple fact that your typical scientist already knows intuitively: Uncertainty grows with risk, exposure and potential loss, especially with complex nonlinear systems, like the global climate system.”

Total nonsense. Intuitive knowledge fails the test of scientific proof or even of being supporting evidence. If the climate nazis want to get my attention, they will open up their studies and supporting evidence to examination. They will encourage meaningful peer review. Instead, they only scream for action now without dissent. Questions are subversive.


40 posted on 04/19/2014 3:30:32 PM PDT by JimSEA
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Why climate deniers are winning...”

Of course. The latest poll shows that only 1.5% of Americans think that global warming is a major problem.

Meanwhile, Paul Rosenberg is a stupid 50 IQ ape and doesn’t know it. Watch the beginning of “2001 A Space Odyssey,” Paul, your hairy, banana-eating daddy is prominently featured.


41 posted on 04/19/2014 3:33:00 PM PDT by sergeantdave
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This article is propaganda at its worth. Sometimes I think you go our of your way to find articles particularly annoying.


42 posted on 04/19/2014 3:35:30 PM PDT by be-baw (still seeking)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

43 posted on 04/19/2014 3:37:15 PM PDT by RightGeek (FUBO and the donkey you rode in on)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

44 posted on 04/19/2014 3:37:19 PM PDT by jpsb (Believe nothing until it has been officially denied)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

> Paul Rosenberg is a California-based ... columnist for Al Jazeera English.

Thanks 2ndDivisionVet.


45 posted on 04/19/2014 3:39:21 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: freedumb2003

Unprecedented in science.
++++++
Not quite. You forgot the HIV=AIDs scam.


46 posted on 04/19/2014 3:41:38 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The twisted psychology that overwhelms scientific consensus

Is it the twisted fact that science is not "consensus"?

"Aliens Cause Global Warming" by Michael Crichton

47 posted on 04/19/2014 3:43:15 PM PDT by Future Snake Eater (CrossFit.com)
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To: expat2

I like that global warming is now climate change. Is it our goal to keep temperatures at the present level. If there is cooling how do we stop that change? More coal?


48 posted on 04/19/2014 3:46:14 PM PDT by morphing libertarian
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Didn’t think that much cow manure could fit in one article.


49 posted on 04/19/2014 3:57:14 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: jpsb

As I tell my friends here in Texas, enjoy these last few years of warmth, serious cold is coming soon. El Nino might buy us a short reprieve. But is it important to remember, El Nino is how the Pacific Ocean gets rid of heat. This winter destroyed a lot of heat in North America/Serbia and if an El Nino happens the Earth will lose a lot more heat. Cold is coming, for sure. And oh by the way Antarctic sea ice has been braking records for several years now. Arctic Sea Ice is close to being back to it’s 1980-2000 mean. In total sea ice is way up. Polar bears are happy, Canadians/Serbians not so much.


50 posted on 04/19/2014 3:57:35 PM PDT by jpsb (Believe nothing until it has been officially denied)
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