Skip to comments.New Home Sales Plunge - And It's Not the Weather
Posted on 04/24/2014 9:25:31 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The Census Bureau report New Residential Sales Report shows sales of new single-family houses in March 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000.
Sales are 14.5 percent below the revised February rate of 449,000 Sales are 13.3 percent below the March 2013 estimate of 443,000 Median sales price was $290,000 vs. $260,900 in February, $257,500 in March of 2013 Average sales price was $334,200 vs. $318,900 in February, $300,200 in March of 2013 Median sales price was up 11.5% from last month, 12.6% from year ago Average sales price was up 4.8% from last month, 11.3% from year ago New houses for sale was 193,000 Supply is 6.0 months at the current sales rate
Sales by Region (Month-Over-Month, Year-Over-Year)
Northeast +12.5% MOM, -22.9% YOY Midwest -21.5% MOM, -17.7% YOY South -14.4% MOM, -03.8% YOY West -17.7% MOM, -27.9% YOY Total -14.5% MOM, -13.3% YOY
It's Not the Weather
USA Today noted "Harsh winter weather helped hold down sales in February and may have in March as well."
Also note: "Economists had predicted an annual rate of 450,000 for March, according to the median forecast in Action Economics survey."
My question: If sales decline was weather related, then why were sales up in the Northeast?
I suggest the Fed managed to blow another housing bubble, especially in California and the West where sales are down the most. With rising rates, people are priced out of the market.
Steen Jakobsen on Consensus vs. Reality
Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank tweeted "Housing tanks again - according to consensus housing should add 0.5%-0.8% to GDP in the US in 2014"
Steen: "Consensus is looking for 0.5% to 0.8% positive GDP from housing. Pity the opposite is happening ... and that on a day when 100% of economists in recent survey by Jim Bianco see US rates higher in six months! Yes, 100%."
But the cov says the recession is over!
Anyone actually paying attention and not just blinding reading and believing the news knows that the recession that started in 2008 never ended.
Oh, it’s the weather all right....it’s an ‘ill wind a blowin’....
True, the recession never ended and has only gotten worse. I have been sitting here wondering how long they can keep fabricating numbers before it totally collapses. Me thinks we are getting close.
But, but, the Keynesian economists said with massive deficit spending prosperity would reign.
a lot of our business is retirees downsizing and (in California) transferring their property tax.
Fewer first-time and family buyers.
Lower pay, student loans, higher debt-to-income ration, etc.
Well, that should be bullish for stocks. After all, every piece of news - good or bad - ends up being bullish for stocks.
Student loans are keeping many would be buyers away. They have a bleak future if they did not get a STEM degree.
It’s convenient to blame the cool weather for something. They can’t associate it with “global warming” so they figure they can still get some mileage out of it.
It’s all bull$h!t. There is no bleeding money around any more! No good jobs. Taxes are high.
Summer of Recovery v5.0!
“Student loans are keeping many would be buyers away. They have a bleak future if they did not get a STEM degree.”
Who would ever commit to 30 years of monthly payments when your job (if you’re fortunate enough to have one) could be gone in 30 days? Once people stopped breeding in response to the economy, it stood to reason they wouldn’t be buying homes for their invisible families. Both amnesty and legal immigration are attempts by the government to rectify this; if Americans don’t buy these homes and fill classrooms with their young then the gubmint will find somebody who will...