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Oh My: Two New Polls Show Dead Heat in Colorado Senate Race
Townhall.com ^ | April 24, 2014 | Guy Benson

Posted on 04/24/2014 11:24:10 AM PDT by jazusamo


We wrote about this race just yesterday, in the context of incumbent Mark Udall's new ad claiming that Republican Cory Gardner is on a "crusade" to "outlaw" birth control. The Gardner campaign responded with a scathing statement:

“After nearly two decades in Washington, Senator Udall has decided to launch his reelection campaign with a negative, misleading attack ad because he has no record of accomplishments. While Coloradans sound the call for new leadership, Senator Udall continues to lie about Cory Gardner’s record while distorting his own. If Senator Udall trusts and respects women, and all Coloradans for that matter, then he should not have lied to them about keeping their healthcare plans and doctors .”

A local fact-checker called the ad's claims about birth control " debatable ," with the Gardner camp noting that the GOP candidate had supported legislative language to protect contraception -- a far cry from being on a zealous mission to criminalize it, as the ad implies. Gardner has also abandoned the issue position Team Udall is using to advance their claim. As I advised yesterday, Colorado Republicans need to tackle this allegation squarely with on-air ads. Gardner needs to make his position crystal clear, and if he's so moved, he may draw attention to his opponent's extremism on abortion. At stake are women voters, who split on abortion, but who don't take kindly to male candidates they are led to believe are hostile to women's health issues. A new poll from Quinnipiac shows this race is a dead heat, with the candidates separated by a statistically-insignificant single point in the mid-40s. Three factors are keeping Udall afloat:

(1) Women. Udall is trying to exploit the gender gap, which currently gives him a 17-point advantage (52/35) with female voters. If Gardner can close this number even a little bit, he'll be in a strong position to win. That's why the birth control attacks must be blunted, and swiftly.

(2) Young voters. Fully 72 percent of 18-29 year olds say they have no opinion of Cory Gardner. Of those who do, the Republican actually scores a (+3) favorability rating. But he's by and large an unknown commodity within this demo, and he's getting trounced by the incumbent, trailing by 31 points (56/25).

(3) Independents. Gardner is actually winning this group, but by a narrow two points. Given the trend of independents breaking fairly heavily for the GOP this year, Gardner must win this cohort by more than a couple of percentage points. Part of doing so requires him successfully introducing himself as a plausible Senator -- and that's why Udall's going to play the "extremist" card early and often.


The poll is also packed with very gloomy data points for the Democrat incumbent:

(1) By a six point margin, voters say Udall does not deserve to be re-elected. The "yes" camp only encompasses 40 percent of voters, a real danger zone for a sitting office holder.

(2) The top two issues in the race are the economy and healthcare. Gardner holds substantial leads on both issues; 13 points on the former, and 21 points on the latter.

(3) Barack Obama is deep underwater in the Rocky Mountain State. His overall approval rating is (38/57), with disapproval reaching 60 percent on the economy and foreign policy. Just 24 percent of Coloradans are at least somewhat satisfied with the overall direction of the country.

(4) Obamacare is enduringly unpopular in the state. In this poll, it's upside-down by 22 points (37/59), virtually unchanged across months of polling. The so-called " winning streak" hasn't made a dent.

A separate poll commissioned by the US Chamber of Commerce gives Gardner a razor-thin lead, (44/42). This survey's data largely confirms the Q-poll's findings:

A slight majority, 51 percent, said it is time to give a new person a chance, compared with 35 percent who said they would automatically vote to reelect [Udall]...A generic Republican Senate candidate would lead a generic Democrat by 9 points, 49 percent to 40 percent. T he number grows into double digits if it’s a Republican against a generic Democrat “who will help President Barack Obama and the Democrats in the Senate” pass his agenda. Obama is viewed unfavorably by 55 percent, with 47 percent saying they strongly disapprove , in the poll. And 63 percent said the country is seriously on the wrong track, compared with 29 percent who say things are moving the right direction....Gardner’s voters are most passionate: he’s up 8 points among those who have an opinion of both candidates, he leads by 5 points among those who say they will “definitely” vote and he’s up 20 points among those who say that, on a 1-to-10 scale, they have a 10 level of interest. Six in 10 of likely voters oppose Obamacare, as 51 percent say they are “strongly” against the law.


Coloradans bristle at the idea of sending someone to the Senate to "help President Obama and the Democrats." That's bad news for Mark Udall, who votes the Obama line a staggering 99 percent of the time. The fundamentals for a Gardner victory are clearly falling into place. To maintain his position and ultimately eclipse Udall, he'll need to pass the initial threshold test of acceptability, which is why the Udall camp is already airing ads trying to define him as a gargoyle. Gardner is a sharp, funny, winsome guy. He's harder to pigeonhole than many politicians -- but Udall's political survival rest on doing just that.



TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Colorado
KEYWORDS: colorado; gardner; polls; senate; udall

1 posted on 04/24/2014 11:24:10 AM PDT by jazusamo
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To: jazusamo

nice, this would be an extra pickup over and beyond what is needed to re-take the Senate.


2 posted on 04/24/2014 11:30:18 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: jazusamo

I’m already sick of the “Gardner is just too extreme for Colorado” ads. My state used to be a solid red state before all the libs from CA showed up and ruined it.


3 posted on 04/24/2014 11:31:58 AM PDT by MissTed ( Private Tagline - Do Not Read!)
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To: jazusamo

Get out Mark. And take your New Mexico-based idiot cousin with you.


4 posted on 04/24/2014 11:32:52 AM PDT by IYAS9YAS (Has anyone seen my tagline? It was here yesterday. I seem to have misplaced it.)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Yep, lets hope Coloradans are sick enough of Obama support by Udall to show him the door.


5 posted on 04/24/2014 11:36:17 AM PDT by jazusamo
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Please bump the Freepathon or click above and donate or become a monthly donor!

6 posted on 04/24/2014 11:44:36 AM PDT by jazusamo
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To: jazusamo

Can you give me the slimmed down info: is this GOOD news for conservatives or BAD news?


7 posted on 04/24/2014 12:07:16 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper; george76

From others close to the issue, which I’m not, Gardner seems to have the best chance to unseat Udall. He had Tea Party support but don’t know the current status.

Can you fill us in, George?


8 posted on 04/24/2014 12:15:50 PM PDT by jazusamo
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To: jazusamo

Gardner should be slamming Udall for being in there to support owebama’a agenda of gun control.

“Udall supports owebama 100%, and owebama wants to ban your guns!”

“Udall will take away your Doctor and your healthcare, force you on Medicaid and send you to a welfare clinic 100 miles away.”

“That fuzzy sweater Udall wears...It’s made of kitten fur.”


9 posted on 04/24/2014 12:15:57 PM PDT by Beagle8U (Unions are an Affirmative Action program for Slackers! .)
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To: jazusamo

Cory Gardner Up By 2 Points in Colorado Senate Race...

Among voters who said they are definitely voting, which was 78 percent of the overall sample, Gardner leads by 5 points, 47 percent to Udall’s 42 percent.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce polling

http://freebeacon.com/politics/poll-cory-gardner-up-by-2-points-in-colorado-senate-race/


10 posted on 04/24/2014 12:30:50 PM PDT by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: MissTed

Red’s Communist. Don’t use the media newspeak colors.


11 posted on 04/24/2014 12:32:09 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: jazusamo; MileHi; dhs12345; dynachrome; Balata; bboop; BulletBobCo; Carley; ColoCowgirl; ...

The economy and healthcare, listed by Colorado voters as top issues in this year’s U.S. Senate race, could be the mountains which Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Udall must climb, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Voters who list the economy back Gardner over Udall 53 - 40 percent and voters who cite health care back the Republican 57 - 36 percent.

Colorado voters oppose the Affordable Care Act 59 - 37 percent, including 62 - 34 percent among independent voters.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2034

Colorado Ping ( Let me know if you wish to be added or removed from the list.)


12 posted on 04/24/2014 12:35:04 PM PDT by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: george76

Bear in mind Cory is from a small town and represents the northeast corner of the state, so most voters still don’t know who he is. This poll is a disaster for Udall.


13 posted on 04/24/2014 12:38:53 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: george76
Colorado Ping ( Let me know if you wish to be added or removed from the list.) I want on!
14 posted on 04/24/2014 12:39:53 PM PDT by dware (3 prohibited topics in mixed company: politics, religion and operating systems...)
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To: george76

Quinnipiac called me Tuesday to poll me.

I loved it! Nuked the left something fierce.


15 posted on 04/24/2014 12:40:12 PM PDT by RandallFlagg (Uninstall Fascist Firefox. Get Pale Moon.)
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To: jazusamo

Artificial birth control SHOULD be outlawed.


16 posted on 04/24/2014 12:41:40 PM PDT by steve86 (Acerbic by nature not nurture)
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To: george76
I just wish Udall mosey off into the sunset...
17 posted on 04/24/2014 12:41:51 PM PDT by MileHi
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To: colorado tanker

Good for us when the well known Democrat incumbent is below 47 percent.

Still early in the race, too. As we know, the statewide Republican primaries are on June 24.


18 posted on 04/24/2014 12:42:29 PM PDT by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: george76; SoFloFreeper

Good news...Thanks for your posts!


19 posted on 04/24/2014 12:43:19 PM PDT by jazusamo
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To: dware

Welcome.

You are added in


20 posted on 04/24/2014 12:44:42 PM PDT by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: MileHi

Expecting Udall , Bloomberg, and .. to panic.


21 posted on 04/24/2014 12:48:30 PM PDT by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: RandallFlagg
Lol.

Maybe I should answer the phone more often. We get at least two calls a day on our landline and I always let it go to voicemail.

22 posted on 04/24/2014 2:33:00 PM PDT by dhs12345
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To: dhs12345

They called after I had just came home after a long 12-hour shift, and I’d popped and drunk my first beer and was about to open a second.

Yeah. I was ready for those questions about Colorado’s politics, Colorado’s politicians, gun laws, Obamacare, Obama, and everything else she asked.

I TRULY hope they call again.

(But, they likely won’t. I asked many times if I would get an IRS audit for speaking my mind, and answering their questions)


23 posted on 04/24/2014 3:21:05 PM PDT by RandallFlagg (Uninstall Fascist Firefox. Get Pale Moon.)
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To: RandallFlagg
Exactly. They always seem to catch you at a bad time.

IRS audit. Lol. That could be. :)

I wonder what the pollsters are thinking when they are asking the questions. Maybe they just blindly ask the questions and don't have an opinion either way.

I know that a lot of people are angry. So they probably get some angry folks too. And people like you who are current on all of the facts.

24 posted on 04/24/2014 4:03:38 PM PDT by dhs12345
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To: george76

Thanks for the ping, george76. Udall is going to get his liberal azz kicked.


25 posted on 04/24/2014 4:26:03 PM PDT by laplata (Liberals don't get it .... their minds are diseased.)
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To: dhs12345

Well, when I went on to explain a few of my answers.
For example:

Quinnipiac - “Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is handling the economy?”

Flagg - “Is there a way that I can answer, “Strongly disapprove?”

Quinnipiac - “*giggles*”

I had her cracking up at the end, and almost BEGGED her to keep me on their list.


26 posted on 04/24/2014 5:59:11 PM PDT by RandallFlagg (Uninstall Fascist Firefox. Get Pale Moon.)
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To: jazusamo

Super secret surprise candidate is going to announce on the peter Boyles show tomorrow (Friday) morning.

Spoiler candidate being run by the Left to peel votes from the conservatives.

Not only will the conservatives have to overcome the fleet of busses transporting Dems from polling place to polling place, but now a RINO planted by the Left.


27 posted on 04/24/2014 6:05:29 PM PDT by Balding_Eagle (Want to keep your doctor? Remove your Democrat Senator.)
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To: jazusamo

Sen Udall is getting hammered hourly on CO tv about his support for ObamaCare.


28 posted on 04/24/2014 6:53:25 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: laplata
Thanks for the ping, george76. Udall is going to get his liberal azz kicked.

Yeah laplata it sure looks that way. ;-)

29 posted on 04/24/2014 6:59:01 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Balding_Eagle

It wouldn’t surprise me a bit.


30 posted on 04/24/2014 7:39:48 PM PDT by jazusamo
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To: Red Steel

Good to hear, it’s way past time for Udall to go.


31 posted on 04/24/2014 7:41:05 PM PDT by jazusamo
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To: RandallFlagg
Lol.

I wonder if she thought that you were a rw nut. OTOH, maybe she learned something.

Most Americans are not paying attention which explains the local, nightly MSM news. Don't know if is a cause or an effect. So you were probably more “interesting” than most.

32 posted on 04/25/2014 6:32:11 AM PDT by dhs12345
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