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The End of the New World Order (Russia not playing ball)
Project Syndicate ^ | April 21, 2014 | Christopher R. Hill

Posted on 04/25/2014 6:31:45 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

DENVER – Russia’s annexation of Crimea and ongoing intimidation of Ukraine appears to mean the end of a 25-year period whose hallmark was an effort to bring Russia into greater alignment with Euro-Atlantic goals and traditions. Now the question is: What comes next?

As the weeks pass, it is increasingly clear that the challenge is not so much Ukraine – which will continue to lurch from one crisis to the next, as it has since independence 23 years ago – as it is Russia and its regression, recidivism, and revanchism.

Exactly 25 years ago, in the spring of 1989, Poland and other countries of what was then known as the “Eastern Bloc” took the first steps to break free from their forced alliance with the Soviet Union. Indeed, these countries’ relationship with the Soviet Union was no true alliance at all; rather, they were accurately described as “satellites” – states with limited sovereignty, whose main role was to serve Soviet interests.

As subjugating and ahistorical as those relationships were, much of the world accepted the binding of “Eastern Europe” to the Soviet Union as a logical state of affairs, one in keeping with the world order that emerged at the close of WWII. But what seemed like a permanent division of the world into competing spheres of interest suddenly ended in 1989, when the Eastern Bloc left the Soviet orbit, soon followed by the republics of the Soviet Union itself.

Russia emerged not as a renamed Soviet Union, but rather as a state with its own history and symbols, a member of the international state system that had been absent for some time, but had suddenly returned. And the reborn Russia seemed to be dedicated, in its own way, to the same goals as its post-Soviet neighbors: membership in Western institutions, a market economy, and a multi-party parliamentary democracy, albeit with a Russian face.

This new world order held for almost 25 years. Except for Russia’s brief war with Georgia in August 2008 (a conflict generally seen as instigated by reckless Georgian leadership), Russia’s acquiescence and commitment to the “new world order,” however problematic, was one of the great accomplishments of the post-Cold War era. Even Russia’s reluctance to support concerted Western action, such as in Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990’s, was based on arguments that could be heard in other European countries. Russian democracy certainly had its share of flaws, but that hardly made it unique among post-communist countries.

Russia’s historical relationship with Ukraine is far more complex and nuanced than many Western pundits suggest. It is difficult to talk about Russian civilization without talking about Ukraine. But, whatever the complexities, Russia’s recent behavior toward its smaller neighbor is not rooted in the legacy of their shared history.

It is rooted in a different legacy – that of a Russian Empire whose habits did not die during the Soviet period. Ukraine did not – and perhaps could not – develop its sovereignty in the way that Poland and others have succeeded in doing since 1989; nonetheless, it is entitled to chart its own future. Russia’s challenge to Ukraine’s status as an independent state is thus a challenge to the entire world, which is why the crisis has risen to the top of the global agenda.

In the United States, the media often point out that most Americans would be hard pressed to find Ukraine on a map. They don’t need to. But Americans do need to understand the challenge they are facing from a Russia that no longer seems interested in what the West has been offering for the last 25 years: special status with NATO, a privileged relationship with the European Union, and partnership in international diplomatic endeavors. All of these seem to be off the table for now.

So what should the West do? An approach based on sanctions that target the Russian economy (and therefore its people) is the preferred alternative of those with the least at stake (US politicians). But sanctions are unlikely to bring about the internal changes that Russia needs, because those changes need to be accomplished by the Russian people.

For the West, the real issue should be shoring up security structures and being prepared for the long haul. NATO has taken an important step in reassuring its eastern members. This is not to say that Russia, having annexed Crimea and intimidated Ukraine, will seek to make similar trouble among former Soviet “allies.” But historical memories die hard.

Poles are well aware that, 75 years ago this year, France and Britain were parties to security agreements that compelled them to declare war on Germany if it invaded Poland. In September 1939, when Germany invaded, both countries dutifully declared war, but neither fired a shot or helped Poland in any tangible way. Poland disappeared from the map of Europe for five years.

The Ukraine crisis is really a Russian crisis. Ukraine – whatever is eventually left of it – will increasingly become a Western country. Russia is showing no sign that it will follow suit.

Instead, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be settling in for a long diplomatic winter. The US needs to prepare for it, especially in shoring up partners and allies, and ensuring as best it can that Ukraine is Russia’s last victim, not its first.


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Foreign Affairs; Government
KEYWORDS: now; obama; putin; russia
Christopher R. Hill, former US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, was US Ambassador to Iraq, South Korea, Macedonia, and Poland, a US special envoy for Kosovo, a negotiator of the Dayton Peace Accords, and the chief US negotiator with North Korea from 2005-2009. He is currently Dean of the Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver.
1 posted on 04/25/2014 6:31:46 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Russia is investing heavily in their military.

They have cut taxes, have a flat tax, a business friendly atmosphere, gobs of energy and a president who is proud to be Russian.

They kick muslims in the @ss if they misbehave and have actually raised the birthrate of Russians.

Russians are proud of their country and of being Christians.

Compare/contrast with America today...


2 posted on 04/25/2014 6:37:02 PM PDT by 2banana (My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
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To: 2banana

you’ve got to quit listening to Russian Propaganda, FRiend.
Try protesting in Russia.


3 posted on 04/25/2014 6:39:34 PM PDT by griswold3
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Nature abhors a Vacuum


4 posted on 04/25/2014 6:43:41 PM PDT by griswold3
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Christopher R. Hill worked closely with Richard Holbrooke to break up Yugoslavia, hand Kosovo over to the Muslims, and generally make a mess of things. The guy is a clintonoid jerk, and now apparently an Obamanoid jerk.

I’ll say, once again, that I am NOT siding with Putin. But it was Soros, the CIA, and Obama who started the mess in Ukraine, without ever considering what they would do to follow up on the revolution they funded and encouraged. Putin stepped in, Obama caved as usual, and now we have a real mess. If this marks the end of the New World Order, it is Obama, not Putin, who is mainly responsible for starting it.

Some intelligent diplomacy might still save the situation, with Putin settling for Crimea, and only threatening to do more because he wants weight at the bargaining table.

Unfortunately, intelligent diplomacy is unlikely. John Kerry? Christopher Hill? Any of the other jerks whom Obama has appointed to key positions? About all we have to rely on at this point is that Putin will have the good sense not to push it too far, because we sure as hell can’t expect any sense of Obama or Kerry, or apparently from the EU.

Again, I AM NOT SIDING WITH PUTIN. But Obama has gotten us into this mess, and I’m not very confident that he is capable of getting us out of it. Nor do I expect anything but toe-kissing from the media, who will lie their heads off if it makes Obama look better.


5 posted on 04/25/2014 6:49:53 PM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: griswold3
Try protesting in Russia.

I did.

And the Black Panthers and Eric Holder could not bother me...

6 posted on 04/25/2014 6:50:41 PM PDT by 2banana (My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
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To: 2banana

Well stated. The Russians have to be LAUGHING THEMSELVES SILLY when they hear that our response to them going into the Ukraine is to cut our military by ANOTHER 30% and to dredge-up doctor Jocelyn Elders to tell us that transexuals will actually HELP our military in the long run.

We might as well NOT EXIST as a world power, as NO ONE takes us seriously anymore. Heck, our nukes have not been tested in DECADES and no one even knows anymore whether the few we have left will even detonate (the isotopes decay and change form over time, they are not stable).

So, yes, we can complain about Russian transgressions, and so can Lichtenstein, but Russia will look at us in the same way they look at Lichtenstein - as a country with well-paid diplomats, but otherwise NO TEETH when it comes to having a military threat.


7 posted on 04/25/2014 6:52:33 PM PDT by BobL
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To: Cicero; 2banana

If this marks the end of the New World Order, it is Obama, not Putin, who is mainly responsible for starting it.

So you’re giving credit to Obama for stopping the New World Order. If that’s the case, it’s the only thing he’s done right and he didn’t mean to.

2banana, I agree. I would not serve in the military to fight the current Russia. I now understand how someone could run to Canada if they disagree with a war. FLAME SUIT ON!


8 posted on 04/25/2014 6:58:34 PM PDT by VerySadAmerican
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Dr. Hill (I presume he has a Ph.D. since he’s now a dean) should know better than to describe Western policy for the past 25 years with the nonsensical claim that its “hallmark was an effort to bring Russia into greater alignment with Euro-Atlantic goals and traditions.” He was party to the NATO aggression in the Balkans as his “plaudits” attached to the article in your post testify. The attack on the Orthodox Christian Serbs and the theft of their spiritual homeland on behalf Muslim Albanians over Russian objections, along with NATO expansion to the very borders of Russia, are the main features of the last 25 years from a Russian point of view and completely nullify any good feelings created by the expansion of the G7 to the G8 or any of the footling little efforts at NATO-Russian cooperation.


9 posted on 04/25/2014 6:59:45 PM PDT by The_Reader_David (And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know...)
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To: griswold3

What did he say in post 2 that is incorrect?


10 posted on 04/25/2014 6:59:55 PM PDT by Rockpile
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To: VerySadAmerican

I often wonder...

When will units of the US military just say no.

We will not fire on Russians.

We will not fire on Americans who have guns or are Tea Party members.

We will not support or train muslim jihadists slaughtering Christians in Syria...

etc.


11 posted on 04/25/2014 7:01:30 PM PDT by 2banana (My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
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To: 2banana

Russia has always invested heavily in their military. Thats why they are a third world country with no infrastruture.

Putin a former KGB thug runs the country for about 40 oligarchs who he reports to. In return Putey has been able to muscle in on the gas operations and is now worth about 40 billion. He’s living La Vida Loca and loving it.

Meanwhile if you are a regular plebe in Russia when you go to the hospital you have to take your own needles.


12 posted on 04/25/2014 7:03:47 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: BobL

We have done underground nuke tests until we had a scandal from a containment breach that horribly poisoned our own troops. Our nukes have some potential of working, enough that Russia is still scared of a direct attack. But a covert one is a different story.


13 posted on 04/25/2014 7:03:55 PM PDT by Morpheus2009
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Chris Hill's problem is that Russia finally tired of the many double crosses by Hill and his Socialist DemoRat NWO cohorts.

Too bad Chris Stevens ain't around to give a similar dissertation regarding American exploits in North Africa and the Middle East.

14 posted on 04/25/2014 7:16:21 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (Join the Democrats, it's not Fascism when WE do it, and the Constitution and law mean what WE say.)
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To: VerySadAmerican

No flaming from me. I agree.

If Obama wants to start up a war with Russia, he can let his own dregs fight it... his Hollywood sycophants, community organizers, gay Olympians, Colorado dopeheads, academia profs, Sandra Fluke sluts, and the entirity of his cretinous voter base.


15 posted on 04/25/2014 7:19:18 PM PDT by greene66
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
There is some good in all of this. May the NWO suffer a relentless but slow and painful death.

As for this question:

So what should the West do?

That's easy; remove Bambi from his position as President.

16 posted on 04/25/2014 7:21:15 PM PDT by Colorado Buckeye (It's the culture stupid!)
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To: Navy Patriot
Chris Hill's problem is that Russia finally tired of the many double crosses by Hill and his Socialist DemoRat NWO cohorts.

Hear! Hear!

17 posted on 04/25/2014 7:24:00 PM PDT by Always A Marine
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To: Rockpile
What did he say in post 2 that is incorrect?

Not a thing, sadly. I wish the same things could still be said about us today.

18 posted on 04/25/2014 7:26:32 PM PDT by Always A Marine
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Actually, I think that the subtext here is hilarious.

If you can say anything about Putin, it is that he is a strident nationalist. *Not* an internationalist.

He knows that internationalism is a socialist sucker play, that it is profoundly anti-nationalist, in fact wants to eventually destroy the very idea of nations. Including his own, beloved Russia.

Such fools, under any guise, cannot fool him because he knows all their tricks. He is the Russian equivalent of David Horowitz, which is why they fear and hate him.

While what Putin does is pretty reprehensible from the western point of view, it needs to be appreciated as well for its context. Putin is a Russian, he works for Russia, he is patriotic to Russia, and he wants to do everything he can to make Russia stronger and wealthier.

The last time the US had a president like that was Ronald Reagan. And the Russian people were as dubious of him as the American people are of Putin.

Maybe the US will again get a president who has such character, and who realizes his job is to work for America, not a handful of internationalist cabals.


19 posted on 04/25/2014 7:39:16 PM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy (WoT News: Rantburg.com)
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To: The_Reader_David
He [Chris Hill] was party to the NATO aggression in the Balkans as his “plaudits” attached to the article in your post testify. The attack on the Orthodox Christian Serbs and the theft of their spiritual homeland on behalf Muslim Albanians over Russian objections, along with NATO expansion to the very borders of Russia, are the main features of the last 25 years from a Russian point of view...

That's the point I've been making for weeks. After the Soviet Union collapsed, NATO promised Moscow that we would not expand eastward if Russian troops were withdrawn from the former Soviet territories. Then NATO turned right around and added three new member nations in 1999, another seven in 2004 and then two more in 2009 -- right up to Russia's own borders. Twelve new treaty members, all sworn to fight against Russia.

After outliving its founding purpose, NATO morphed from a defensive alliance into an offensive bloc intent on encircling and emasculating Russia. Like the 1919 victors at Versailles, NATO's leaders in the 1990s thought they were dictating the history for the next century. They went too far. And with their hubris, they created a bitter mess.

20 posted on 04/25/2014 7:56:54 PM PDT by Always A Marine
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

it’s almost as if someone hit the ‘reset’ button


21 posted on 04/25/2014 8:08:44 PM PDT by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: sten

The article is a bunch of bullfeathers. BTW, the three local newspapers in my area today referred to the ethnic Russian protesters in eastern Ukraine in three different terms - domestic insurgents, domestic terrorists, and domestic protesters. Once you start calling them terrorists, you’re preparing the US population to accept drone strikes and bombing as in Serbia.


22 posted on 04/25/2014 8:32:01 PM PDT by Ciexyz
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To: Always A Marine
After outliving its founding purpose, NATO morphed from a defensive alliance into an offensive bloc intent on encircling and emasculating Russia. ...NATO's leaders in the 1990s thought they were dictating the history for the next century. They went too far. And with their hubris, they created a bitter mess.

Unnecessarily creating animosity and distrust to replace the trust and respect Ronald Reagan's strength and peaceful resolve had built with all the Eastern Bloc states through his willingness and promise to share defensive missile technology.

23 posted on 04/25/2014 8:46:50 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (Join the Democrats, it's not Fascism when WE do it, and the Constitution and law mean what WE say.)
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To: griswold3

Have you protested in this countrY?


24 posted on 04/25/2014 9:19:01 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
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To: Ciexyz

so HReid will be pushing for drone strikes on the TEA party? good to know

if 0bammy thinks the Russians will react like the muslims, he’s sorely mistaken


25 posted on 04/25/2014 9:22:58 PM PDT by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: Cicero

If Putin is responsible for the end of the NWO,he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize.


26 posted on 04/25/2014 9:41:06 PM PDT by freedomfiter2 (Brutal acts of commission and yawning acts of omission both strengthen the hand of the devil.)
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bkmk


27 posted on 04/26/2014 12:53:52 AM PDT by AllAmericanGirl44
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To: FreedomNotSafety

Yes. It led to a visit by the IRS. The US becoming more and more like Russia but we don’t arrest protesters YET.
The tales of Russia becoming as free as they say is simply propaganda. Yes, things are better than 1991, but that’s not saying much.


28 posted on 04/26/2014 4:47:00 AM PDT by griswold3
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To: griswold3
I don't purport to know your background and experience, but many on this forum are wholly ignorant of the state of the Russian Federation right now and as such ignorantly continue to treat Russia with the same attitude that they had to the Communist USSR.

The Russian Federation is NOT the USSR. Putin is an excellent President (and NOT a Communist) who works in the actual interest of the Russian state and the Russian people. Everything he has done so far in Crimea and Ukraine are *good things* for Russia.

Crimeans are rejoicing in their new Russian citizenship, and if they succeed in helping to free Eastern Ukraine from the influence of the crazies that the USA has helped into power, those people will rejoice as well.

It is very hard to understand Russia without having some first-hand knowledge of their language and culture, which most of us in the west do not have.

29 posted on 04/26/2014 8:08:35 AM PDT by billakay
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To: Georgia Girl 2
Russia has always invested heavily in their military. Thats why they are a third world country with no infrastruture.

Putin a former KGB thug runs the country for about 40 oligarchs who he reports to. In return Putey has been able to muscle in on the gas operations and is now worth about 40 billion. He’s living La Vida Loca and loving it.

Meanwhile if you are a regular plebe in Russia when you go to the hospital you have to take your own needles.

Have you ever been to Russia? Have you been to a hospital in Russia? Do you speak the language? Have you interacted with the people?

Your comments suggest that you have not, at least not recently.

30 posted on 04/26/2014 8:11:09 AM PDT by billakay
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy
You are 100% correct.

Putin is a Russian, is acting in the interest of Russians, and is doing a pretty damn good job of it.

31 posted on 04/26/2014 8:13:10 AM PDT by billakay
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To: Georgia Girl 2
Russia has always invested heavily in their military. Thats why they are a third world country with no infrastruture.

Russia is not third-world by any definition of the term. Even by the old definitions, it would be second-world.

The current state of Russia society and infrastructure-wise puts it squarely in first-world status.

32 posted on 04/26/2014 8:15:44 AM PDT by billakay
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

KGB Putin is the world’s biggest terrorist and mass murderer and the USA’s most deadly and evil enemy. There is no reasoning with the savage stupid satanic monster Putin. He must die violently and his genocidal lawless regime must be smashed into pieces.


33 posted on 04/26/2014 8:25:02 AM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
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To: Tailgunner Joe
Bigger than Barack Obama? That's debatable, isn't it?
34 posted on 04/26/2014 8:26:23 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: billakay

If you have been to Russia lately you would know that 50 miles outside of Moscow its oxcarts. Most roads are only passable in the dry season. Russia hasn’t produced a new product since about 1975. They export oil/gas and wheat. They have what is considered globally to be a modest economy. They have a conscript army. We track their boomers by the radiation leak trail they leave behind.

Krauthammer had it faily right when he said that Russia is a third world country with a 1st world military. Only the military is not that great. Russia has enough muscle to bully their immediate neighbors and thats about it. They are not at war with anybody for the simple fact that they cannot afford it.


35 posted on 04/26/2014 8:28:27 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: billakay

Moscow and St. Petersburg is well developed but what about the rest of Russia?


36 posted on 04/26/2014 8:28:53 AM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
No, it's not.

Putin dropped cluster bombs on innocent Christian women and children in Georgia and exterminated and ethnically cleansed thousands of civilians. Obama hasn't done anything even remotely similar.

I dislike Obama as much as the next guy, I'm just not ready to betray my country and support my genocidal enemies because the guy I voted for didn't win. Crybabies who want to side with Russia against their own country should either go to Russia where they belong, or the should grow up and get a life.

37 posted on 04/26/2014 8:33:33 AM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
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To: Tailgunner Joe


38 posted on 04/26/2014 8:39:43 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: billakay

“S&P cut Russia’s rating one step to BBB-, it said in a statement today. The grade, on par with Brazil and Azerbaijan, has a negative outlook. S&P last downgraded Russia in December 2008. Russia’s currency and bonds fell.”

BBB- is junk status. Thats third world.

I rest my case. :-)


39 posted on 04/26/2014 9:01:00 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Do you have some problem with using drones to kill our terrorist enemies? You think Obama should kill less muslims?

Do you believe that Chris Stephens was smuggling weapons to islamists? Wasn’t Chris Stephens complicit with Obama’s agenda? Chris Stephens worked for Obama. If Obama is the biggest murderer in the world, then what does that make Stephens? If Stephens was supporting muslim terrorists on behalf of the murderer Obama, didn’t he deserve to die? Didn’t he just get what was coming to him?


40 posted on 04/26/2014 9:25:19 AM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
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To: Georgia Girl 2
If you have been to Russia lately you would know that 50 miles outside of Moscow its oxcarts. Most roads are only passable in the dry season. Russia hasn’t produced a new product since about 1975. They export oil/gas and wheat. They have what is considered globally to be a modest economy. They have a conscript army. We track their boomers by the radiation leak trail they leave behind.

I have been to Russia lately. I have spent a total of four months in Russia over four trips since 2009. I have traveled from Moscow to Krasnodar by car and Krasnodar to Moscow by train. I've been in Tula, Voronezh, and many other smaller cities along the way.

I have also traveled all over the Krasnodarskiy Krai by car. I have been in Timashevsk, Slavensk, Anapa, Dzhugba, Novorossiysk, Abrau-Dyurso, and innumerable small towns and villages along the way.

The conditions in the Russian countryside, at least west of the Urals where I have been are typically no worse than you might find in the backwoods of Pennsylvania or West Virginia here in the States.

Yes, Russian industry has been in the toilet since 1991, but they are steadily coming back. They do produce new cars, new consumer products, and new military hardware. Imported consumer products from cars to cell phones are readily available.

Russian education from elementary school to university is world class. Anecdotally, my perception is that the average Russian high school graduate is light years ahead of the average US graduate, especially in math and science.

Much of what we "know" about Russia is propaganda and misinformation.

41 posted on 04/26/2014 9:54:01 AM PDT by billakay
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To: billakay

Alexei Navalny


42 posted on 04/26/2014 12:49:19 PM PDT by griswold3
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To: billakay

~The conditions in the Russian countryside, at least west of the Urals where I have been are typically no worse than you might find in the backwoods of Pennsylvania or West Virginia here in the States~

In fact western Russia is pretty depressive comparing to Urals and Northwest Siberia where a lot of industries and oil comes from.


43 posted on 04/27/2014 8:43:52 AM PDT by wetphoenix
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To: Georgia Girl 2; MinorityRepublican; billakay
What about 1,500 miles east to the edge of Siberia? Not a Moscow or St.Petersburb, but Caterinburg - a mediocre industrial town in a class of Cleveland on the egde of Ural Mountains bordering West Siberia. Not an oxacart for sure. Kolyma highway: Not the first class, but paved. And just google map the place to learn what the freaking end of nowhere this place is.
44 posted on 04/27/2014 9:44:06 AM PDT by wetphoenix
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To: wetphoenix

Did you mean Yekaterinburg, Russia?


45 posted on 04/27/2014 10:25:30 AM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

True, is it that much ‘undeveloped’, ‘oxacart’ etc?


46 posted on 04/27/2014 5:05:21 PM PDT by wetphoenix
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