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We're Like a Room With a Roof
Townhall.com ^ | April 26, 2014 | Charles Payne

Posted on 04/26/2014 7:52:57 AM PDT by Kaslin

Ebullient

An immediate, and ultimately short-lived, reaction to a particular event - for example, if you had just won the lottery, you would feel ebullient.

Someone perpetually upbeat and cheerful - for example, as in "an ebullient personality," watch out for ebullient personalities: they can often be "over the top" as well.
Vocabulary.com

It has been a longtime since popular music, or musicians were once described as "Ebullient." However, back in 1959, that is how the world viewed Mr. Dizzy Gillespie. Back in those days, jazz was pop and all the rage. As it turned out, 1959 was a pretty good year for the United States...one could say that it was an ebullient time.

Yesterday, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) released its latest survey on sentiment, reflecting a big spike in bullishness. Typically, a spike like that indicates that there is too much enthusiasm among investors, but in this case the move was coming from an extremely low-point, where individual investors were actually more bearishness than bullish. Nevertheless, we hear a lot these days about how poor the timing is for the Main Street investor, with respect to jumping in at the wrong time with reckless enthusiasm.

Investors are not ebullient, even if more of them are dipping a toe into the water.

The fact is, just as music has evolved since the cool age of jazz, so too have investor attitudes about the market. Of course, music's course seems linear from jazz to rock, to acid to punk, and to heavy metal, which shared the charts with disco, and then various forms of rap, including gangster rap. (Country music evolved as well, although I prefer the older stuff to the more pop-light offerings today.) What is interesting is that investors get the blame for being too enthusiastic and creating market tops, but one has to consider that perhaps market rallies fan the flames of unbridled excitement. It is sort of a chicken and egg kind of thing. On that note, the bullishness among individuals has coincided with market tops, and that is the good news because individuals are anything but ebullient.

Stock Market - Historic Tops

Bullish

Bearish

August 24, 1987

66.0

6.0

March 24, 2000

65.7

20.0

January 3, 2002

51.0

24.4

October 11, 2007

54.0

25.7

April 23, 2014

34.5

26.0

The fact is, the entire bull market has occurred on muted individual investor enthusiasm, and light volume. The bottom line is that individuals have missed the rally, and those that have come in late are down in the hot names, and would not have considered buying boring names as they play catch-up.

Yesterday the shakeout continued, and at the close those pulling the strings and fermenting the fear feigned surprise that the Dow closed unchanged after so much "good" news. It is almost laughable, but not in an ebullient way.

Earnings Scoreboard

Winners: Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Starbucks (SBUX), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), SunPower (SPWR), Deckers (DECK), Cirrus Logic (CRUS), and Broadcom (BRCM), just to name a few. Earnings beats alone do not mean strong sessions today, but most of these businesses had great things to say, and to be proud. On that note, Visa (VISA) beat the street on earnings, but the initial reaction saw its shares lower.

Loser: Pandora (P) was the only name of significance that missed. Melanox (MLNX) also missed; it is an open position in the model portfolio.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial
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1 posted on 04/26/2014 7:52:57 AM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

I have been wondering what is a ‘room without a roof’?
Why is free cash flow falling? Does decreasing cap ex prove the recovery is failing?


2 posted on 04/26/2014 8:02:32 AM PDT by griswold3
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To: griswold3

“I have been wondering what is a ‘room without a roof’?”

Wet. ;-)


3 posted on 04/26/2014 9:40:03 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: Pining_4_TX

I take it to mean, in the song, that it’s so jubilant and happy that it’s all sunshine.

Nothing dark and nefarious. It’s just a song about being happy, what’s so wrong about that?


4 posted on 04/26/2014 9:48:41 AM PDT by Mountain Bike Vomit Carnage (Not my circus, not my monkeys.)
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To: Mountain Bike Vomit Carnage

Nothing at all! I love the song, and I have an adorable short video of my 2-year-old grandson rocking out to it. I corral everyone I meet and make them watch it. ;-)

However, the room will be wet.


5 posted on 04/26/2014 9:50:09 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: Kaslin

Re: 1959

It’s been said that no outgoing administration ever handed over the country to the next one in better shape than Ike and Nixon did in January, 1961—and that no outgoing administration ever handed over the country to the next one in worse shape than the JFK/LBJ team did in January, 1969.


6 posted on 04/26/2014 10:03:00 AM PDT by Kurt Longjohn
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To: Kaslin

I’m irrationally ebullient, sometimes.


7 posted on 04/26/2014 10:04:53 AM PDT by rabidralph
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