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A Generation Of Old People Is About To Change The Global Economy
BI ^ | 4-27-2014 | The Economist

Posted on 04/27/2014 7:52:15 AM PDT by blam

A Generation Of Old People Is About To Change The Global Economy

The Economist
Apr. 27, 2014, 9:22 AM

  

In the 20th century the planet’s population doubled twice. It will not double even once in the current century, because birth rates in much of the world have declined steeply.

But the number of people over 65 is set to double within just 25 years.

This shift in the structure of the population is not as momentous as the expansion that came before. But it is more than enough to reshape the world economy.

According to the UN’s population projections, the standard source for demographic estimates, there are around 600m people aged 65 or older alive today. That is in itself remarkable; the author Fred Pearce claims it is possible that half of all the humans who have ever been over 65 are alive today. But as a share of the total population, at 8%, it is not that different to what it was a few decades ago.

By 2035, however, more than 1.1 billion people--13% of the population--will be above the age of 65. This is a natural corollary of the dropping birth rates that are slowing overall population growth; they mean there are proportionally fewer young people around. The "old-age dependency ratio"--the ratio of old people to those of working age--will grow even faster. In 2010 the world had 16 people aged 65 and over for every 100 adults between the ages of 25 and 64, almost the same ratio it had in 1980. By 2035 the UN expects that number to have risen to 26.

(snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: aging; economy; seniors; ss

1 posted on 04/27/2014 7:52:15 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam
now factor in countries that have whole generations wiped out from war like Iraq, Iran and several african countries where there are virtually no males btwn 30 and 50 to sustain their economies
2 posted on 04/27/2014 8:02:30 AM PDT by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -vvv- NO Pity for the LAZY - 86-44)
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To: blam
If I live to 80...possible but by no means certain given my family history...I expect the last 5 years (at the very least) to be very difficult ones both financially and in terms of timely access to quality health care.But if,by chance,my hunch proves to be correct at least I will have had 75 pretty good...perhaps even *quite* good...years,which is better than many people today...and throughout history...have had.
3 posted on 04/27/2014 8:04:15 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Stalin Blamed The Kulaks,Obama Blames The Tea Party)
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To: blam
It will be a world in which ageing reinforces the changes in income distribution that new technology has brought with it: the skilled old earn more, the less-skilled of all ages are squeezed. The less-educated and jobless young will be particularly poorly served, never building up the skills to enable them to become productive older workers.

In the end, it boils down to how can we get rid of the baby boomers and still keep the cash they have saved?

Income 'distribution' is a euphemism for 'redistribution', bleats about a 'skilled-old' population ultimately translate down to "what does this mean to how we've so poorly educated our young for?" and the like. The ultimate self-interested conclusion is not blame ourselves, but blame others. Yeah, those older workers are more skilled, but we want more money, too. They shouldn't have it; we want it. And, we don't want to go through the real process by learning and working hard to get it honestly

4 posted on 04/27/2014 8:04:58 AM PDT by Gaffer (Comprehensive Immigration Reform is just another name for Comprehensive Capitulation)
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To: blam

Wise folks saw this coming 30 years ago. One of them told me not to expect to collect any SS.


5 posted on 04/27/2014 8:09:38 AM PDT by DManA
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To: Gaffer

“And, we don’t want to go through the real process by learning and working hard to get it honestly”
Ah, come on....Our grandchildren can do each others laundry while others shine each others shoes,etc etc in the wunerful Service Economy of the future....
Maybe Ol’ Jim Rogers got it right—Buy Farmland and learn how to plant/harvest...won’t solve the problem of the starving paying you a visit however....


6 posted on 04/27/2014 8:17:31 AM PDT by litehaus (A memory tooooo long)
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To: litehaus

If I ever live long enough to teach my grand daughters to shoot like I have my daughter, I’ll do that.

They’ve already been with my daughter and me to the range on ladies day. They sit in the ‘gallery’ and cheer her on.

Aside from that, I always ask them about school, what they learn, and what do they think about it whenever I see them.


7 posted on 04/27/2014 8:23:31 AM PDT by Gaffer (Comprehensive Immigration Reform is just another name for Comprehensive Capitulation)
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To: blam
The article states: "Perhaps most important, better education leads to higher productivity at any age."

This may sound intuitively obvious but its a dubious assumption. From personal experience, I have seen in the work place far too many educated people who are often inclined to promote and engage in unproductive, time consuming and wasteful activities. They tend to favor endless meetings, lots of studies, and mountains of paperwork. Many of these activities are self-serving in nature and designed to improve one's visibility. In general, empire building is the hidden agenda.

Exhibit A is the federal government. There are unquestionably lots of educated people working in the bureaucracy, but it is hardly an example of a productive enterprise.

8 posted on 04/27/2014 8:23:48 AM PDT by Starboard
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To: Gaffer

Excellent comments.

The ole somethin’ fer nothin’ routine. Easier to take than earn.


9 posted on 04/27/2014 8:28:18 AM PDT by Starboard
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To: DManA
Wise folks saw this coming 30 years ago. One of them told me not to expect to collect any SS.

I started collecting at 62 despite the "penalty" for early retirement.

The SS literature on this subject is very deceptive. They do not take into account interest rates, or rate of return on any savings one may have.

If you can get ~9% on you money (at the lower end of stock market returns), your will never break even, by deferring to a later retirement date, on the total amount you receive, no matter how long you live. Plus, it is politically impossible to reduce SS payments to an individual once they have started collecting the money.

Of course now the early retirement ages have increased, but most people are better off to take SS as early as possible.

10 posted on 04/27/2014 8:33:19 AM PDT by CurlyDave
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To: blam

I’ve done my best to survive financially

and know I wont survive physically

but am comfortable with the spiritual investments I’ve made


11 posted on 04/27/2014 8:36:03 AM PDT by jcon40
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To: blam
It will not double even once in the current century, because birth rates in much of the world have declined steeply.

Not in the Muslim world kiddies. They are squirting them out in wholesale lots and will have significant population authority in many western nations in less than two more generations.

12 posted on 04/27/2014 8:44:33 AM PDT by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
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To: blam
Blam; you and I are about the same age. I retired when I started doing the same things twice.
13 posted on 04/27/2014 9:04:21 AM PDT by Little Bill (EVICT Queen Jean)
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To: blam

There’s going to be a lot less lawns for children to freely walk upon. And they better pull up their pants, turn that ballcap around, and turn down that blasted music as well!


14 posted on 04/27/2014 9:06:26 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: Chode

I don’t think war is having much of an impact at all in those populations; when you look at the number of deaths annually versus the number of births, they are a drop in the bucket. Those countries still have huge populations under 20 years old, and they are even exporting them here.


15 posted on 04/27/2014 9:11:37 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic warfare against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: blam

Hence the need for zer0’s death panels.


16 posted on 04/27/2014 9:12:16 AM PDT by Vaquero (Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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To: Starboard

“From personal experience, I have seen in the work place far too many educated people who are often inclined to promote and engage in unproductive, time consuming and wasteful activities. They tend to favor endless meetings, lots of studies, and mountains of paperwork. Many of these activities are self-serving in nature and designed to improve one’s visibility. In general, empire building is the hidden agenda.”

Those are educated people who think they are above “real work”; while they can make good money doing it, when the stuff hits the fan those are normally the first to go (high salaries with no performance metrics or real job descriptions). I think many of them were the “middle managers” that lost their jobs over the last few decades.


17 posted on 04/27/2014 9:44:31 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic warfare against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: blam

Starting in about 2025 there will begin a mass die-off of us Baby Boomers. The wheel turns.


18 posted on 04/27/2014 9:50:39 AM PDT by Chuckster (The longer I live the less I care about what you think.)
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To: blam

The author failed to factor in Obamacare, which will eliminate most old people.


19 posted on 04/27/2014 10:15:29 AM PDT by aimhigh (John 14:21)
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To: blam

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_the_Sky


20 posted on 04/27/2014 10:49:57 AM PDT by pabianice (LINE)
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To: Little Bill
"Blam; you and I are about the same age. I retired when I started doing the same things twice. "

Yup.

I retired at age 50.

My plan was/is:

* 25 years to grow-up and educate.

* 25 years of hard work.

* 25 years of leisure in retirement.

(I'll be 71 this year)

I feel grateful to have been born at the best time in history, in the best country and living conditions in all of human history.
I live better than most kings and royalty in all of human history...how could I have been more fortunate?

21 posted on 04/27/2014 11:17:03 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam

A generation of old people are about to be killed off by obastard care.


22 posted on 04/27/2014 1:46:32 PM PDT by Old Yeller (Why is Jon Corzine a free man?)
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