Skip to comments.Karl Rove flip-flops on Nate Silver
Posted on 04/30/2014 6:06:57 PM PDT by PaulCruz2016
And yet just when the news is getting good, Rove is calling Silver's whole methodology into doubt. On Wednesday, he tweeted a link to a National Journal column titled "Why I Don't Agree With Nate Silver: Number-crunching Senate prediction models are fun to follow but are not very useful."
"Smart piece: may disagree w/ some specifics, but major point is correct," Rove wrote.
The major point is that the methodology behind Silver's projections is flawed: "Unlike baseball, where the sample size runs in the thousands of at-bats or innings pitched, these models overemphasize a handful of early polls at the expense of on-the-ground intelligence on candidate quality," National Journal's Josh Kraushaar writes. "As Silver might put it, there's a lot of noise to the signal."
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
who is Karl Rove.... dinasaur
Sometimes the stars align and people have their moment of success, their tactics and insight fit that particular sliver of time. Rove’s was the 2004 election where he was successful in getting more evangelicals out to vote than people expected. He got Bush re-elected in an atmosphere where the media hated him more than they did Nixon. Since then, for Rove, it’s been mostly down hill. His predictions and whiteboarding are not much more than an average exercise in thinking out loud. He sits on Fox giving no better analysis than many of the more tuned in members here could do. At least Fox got rid of (mostly) Dick Morris, who’s time passed in 90’s. It’s like trying to bring back a winning coach from ages past - you usually just can’t recreate the formula for success because the game has moved on.
That was the year that 56% of Hispanics, who were protestant, voted republican.
Well said. It’s like trying to get Joe Namath back on the field.
56%? I never heard it being that high. I know 44% is the widely reported amount, and even Pew suggest that total was closer to 40%.
44% was the number quoted for the overall Hispanic vote, 56% was the Hispanics who were Protestant Christians.
In 2000 the Protestant Hispanics went 44% republican, and in 2008, they voted republican at 48%.
56% of the Protestants. The Catholics (which are probably 80% of the Hispanic population) voted Dem by a large margin.
Thanks, I learn something new here everyday.
Tokyo was confident we’d retain the house in ‘06.
I looked up “loser” in the dictionary, and Tokyo Rove’s picture was there.
So the Hispanics with more time and money who have more opportunity to look at converting are more likely to vote Republican than poor Hispanics?
No, and that was weird.
Rove to accountant: “If I flip there will be trouble
if I flop it will be double.
So you gotta let me know...
what to tell politico.”
Are black Mormons more likely to vote Republican than other blacks?
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