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Climate Researchers Think We Could Be In For The Most Powerful El Niņo In 16 Years
BI - The Conversation UK ^ | 5-2-2014 | Agus Santoso and Shayne McGregor

Posted on 05/02/2014 3:00:31 PM PDT by blam

Climate Researchers Think We Could Be In For The Most Powerful El Niño In 16 Years

The Conversation UK
Agus Santoso and Shayne McGregor, The Conversation UK
May 2, 2014, 5:31 PM

We have only just moved into May and despite being seven months away from next summer in the southern hemisphere, climate researchers are seeing the beginnings of what could be the most powerful El Niño event since 1997/98.

An El Niño is a change in Pacific Ocean and atmosphere that typically causes drought, extreme heat and bushfires in Australia.

Last year was a neutral El Niño and we have been surprisingly lucky with only a few small El Niño’s since the 21st century started, despite having two of the hottest years on record globally in 2005 and 2010.

The last really big El Niño was in 1997/98. It is no coincidence that 1998 is the only remaining year from the past century that still sits in the top 10 for the hottest years, globally, on record.

By itself, research shows an El Niño event can raise the global average temperature for the following year by 0.1 to 0.2C. It is one of the reasons many climate scientists have been concerned about what could happen if another strong El Niño was to occur.

The way things are shaping up in 2014 we may be about to find out.

Strong El Niño on the cards

Over the past month and a half, three strong westerly wind blasts along the equator appear to have triggered ocean subsurface warming. The warming has intensified and rolled to the eastern equatorial Pacific — a strong sign of a developing El Niño.

But it is not the ocean warming by itself that is significant

(snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: climate; climatechange; dought; elnino; extremeheat; globalwarming; manbearpig; miniiceage; pacific; weather

1 posted on 05/02/2014 3:00:31 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Buy coffee (JO). Drought followed by drenching rains in Brazil. A gamble, of course; advice worth what you paid for it.


2 posted on 05/02/2014 3:02:12 PM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
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To: blam

I thought Joe Bastardi was predicting a relatively short lived, mild El Nino? Who ya gonna trust, Joe or the globull alarmists?


3 posted on 05/02/2014 3:03:55 PM PDT by Mastador1 (I'll take a bad dog over a good politician any day!)
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To: Mastador1

The article doesn’t say who is floating this prediction. But I am disinclined to give much credit to “Climate Researchers.”


4 posted on 05/02/2014 3:09:05 PM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: blam

OMG!!! We are doomed.


5 posted on 05/02/2014 3:09:18 PM PDT by Parmy
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To: blam

http://www.iowafarmertoday.com/el-nino/image_a26e3156-9407-11e3-8e86-0019bb2963f4.html

A return of El Nino should lend itself to favorable growing conditions this year, says Art Douglas, a meteorologist with Creighton University in Omaha. He said ample moisture and more mild temperatures in July and August should boost crop production.


6 posted on 05/02/2014 3:10:42 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: Mastador1
El Nino means more rain in the Western US. So why not report on that as well.

Why did they just mention drought in Australia?

7 posted on 05/02/2014 3:11:03 PM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear
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To: Cicero

http://www.agprofessional.com/news/El-Nino-is-back-Maybe-so-248872131.html

On Thursday, federal forecasters issued an “El Niño watch,” indicating a 50 percent chance El Niño will develop this summer or fall.

However, El Niño’s return isn’t guaranteed.

“While all models predict warming in the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niño will develop during the summer or fall,” The National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration said in their announcement. “If westerly winds continue to emerge in the western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Niño would become more likely.”...


8 posted on 05/02/2014 3:13:14 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: blam

Climate researcher. Like an astrologer, without the credentials.


9 posted on 05/02/2014 3:13:54 PM PDT by lurk
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To: blam
Well, I will agree to one thing, we ARE in for one hell of a change for the next 10 years but it's not gonna be warm......

While the sun heats, the sun also cools.......

10 posted on 05/02/2014 3:15:03 PM PDT by Hot Tabasco (Under Reagan spring always arrived on time.....)
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To: lurk

…………….reaching for my Poor Richards and farmers Almanac


11 posted on 05/02/2014 3:17:25 PM PDT by morphing libertarian
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To: who_would_fardels_bear

Yes, it is great news. If it is anything like the El Niño of the Winter of 1997/98, the High Sierra of California will get a ton of snow which is where most of California gets its water.


12 posted on 05/02/2014 3:21:56 PM PDT by Inyo-Mono (NRA)
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To: blam

“could be”
“typically”
“can”
“could happen”
“may be”
“strong sign”
“appear to have”


13 posted on 05/02/2014 3:23:03 PM PDT by Fresh Wind (The last remnants of the Old Republic have been swept away.)
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To: jjotto

“... a 50 percent chance ...”
-
Coin toss?


14 posted on 05/02/2014 3:30:01 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (We have met the enemy and he is us.)
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To: blam

Good! This was almost the snowiest, coldest winter here in decades. A good old El Niño will make for a milder, nicer winter here.


15 posted on 05/02/2014 3:34:29 PM PDT by A Formerly Proud Canadian (I once was blind but now I see...)
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To: blam
"An El Niño is a change in Pacific Ocean and atmosphere that typically causes drought, extreme heat and bushfires in Australia."

More devastating than any of that, it could possibly trigger a Midnight Oil reunion tour....

16 posted on 05/02/2014 3:34:56 PM PDT by Joe 6-pack (Qui me amat, amat et canem meum.)
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To: Fresh Wind

May I quote your predictions?


17 posted on 05/02/2014 3:44:40 PM PDT by Ed Condon (subliminal messages here in invisible ink)
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To: blam

We can use the rain in CA.


18 posted on 05/02/2014 3:49:18 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: blam
Over the past month and a half, three strong westerly wind blasts along the equator appear to have triggered ocean subsurface warming.

Whaaa? Winds causing the ocean to warm - subsurface???

just damn. We need more taxes to stop those winds.

19 posted on 05/02/2014 3:52:29 PM PDT by Principled (Obama: Unblemished by success.)
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To: blam

I tell you! We need to contact AlGore and his minions of enviro moon bats to bring this El Nino stuff to an end, before it is too late. Several several (yes, 2x) years ago Algore addressed a crowd here in CA of screaming enviro moon bats and told how when notified that El Nino was coming they were able to defeat El Nino (more excited screaming) and stop it dead in it’s track. In other words, another super sonic mega disaster El Nino was forecasted due to global warming and again nothing happened for which the ever ready Algore took full credit.


20 posted on 05/02/2014 3:56:36 PM PDT by dirtymac (Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country)
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To: blam

Horsepucky - this El-Nino is surface-based and will be short-lived and followed by another devastating Winter in the U.S.

But that will not stop the Climate Change nazis from screaming Chicken Little.


21 posted on 05/02/2014 3:57:04 PM PDT by INVAR ("Fart for liberty, fart for freedom and fart proudly!" - Benjamin Franklin)
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To: blam

I think Cris Farley had the best take on this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhdDeWNvvTI


22 posted on 05/02/2014 4:09:35 PM PDT by Bayard
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To: blam

It’s so cold here (Indiana) the dandelions are shriveled and hugging the turf for warmth.


23 posted on 05/02/2014 4:11:33 PM PDT by nascarnation (Toxic Baraq Syndrome: hopefully infecting a Dem candidate near you)
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To: blam

Have we heard yet that “ this will be the worst Hurricane season ever” statement yet for this year?

We get that every year


24 posted on 05/02/2014 4:25:40 PM PDT by DanielRedfoot (Creepy Ass Cracker)
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To: blam

WOW! Just in time for stinko dee piehole. Go ocean. Do what you want. Another made up holiday kinda like k-whaaa-nza.


25 posted on 05/02/2014 5:03:19 PM PDT by rktman (Ethnicity: Nascarian. Race: Daytonafivehundrian)
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To: Ed Condon

Possibly.


26 posted on 05/02/2014 5:17:53 PM PDT by Fresh Wind (The last remnants of the Old Republic have been swept away.)
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To: DanielRedfoot

That fraud at Colorado State has been putting out his hurricane predictions for years with zero credibility after the fact. The guy has been living off the public teat for years.


27 posted on 05/02/2014 6:31:10 PM PDT by MisterArtery
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To: blam

CLIMATE RESEARCHERS ARE SNAKE OIL SALESMEN. If I remember correctly back in the early days the UN head of climate change was a railroad engineer in India.


28 posted on 05/02/2014 6:41:35 PM PDT by ronnie raygun
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To: blam; Pearls Before Swine; zot; Mastador1; Cicero

Joe Bastardi blew this apart in his Weatherbell Saturday blog last Saturday. He said that it will be about half as high as the “record highs” that are actually recorded.


29 posted on 05/02/2014 7:04:33 PM PDT by GreyFriar ( Spearhead - 3rd Armored Division 75-78 & 83-87)
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To: blam; Pearls Before Swine; zot; Mastador1; Cicero

Joe Bastardi blew this apart in his Weatherbell Saturday blog last Saturday. He said that it will be about half as high as the “record highs” that are actually recorded.


30 posted on 05/02/2014 7:04:33 PM PDT by GreyFriar ( Spearhead - 3rd Armored Division 75-78 & 83-87)
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To: GreyFriar

Thanks for the not-so-big El Niño ping.


31 posted on 05/02/2014 7:40:33 PM PDT by zot
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To: GreyFriar
We here in the dry southwest hope and pray that Joe blew it....because "monsoons of epic proportions" are needed to end our drought, and call governor Moonbeam off our Kalifornia asses, with his hysterical faggy "conservation" blows.

Epic El Nino is welcome in these parts.

32 posted on 05/02/2014 8:12:01 PM PDT by ErnBatavia (The 0baMao Experiment: Abject Failure)
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To: blam

16 years ago was only yesterday.


33 posted on 05/02/2014 8:32:15 PM PDT by The Duke ("Forgiveness is between them and God, it's my job to arrange the meeting.")
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To: blam

there is NO accountability for anyone who is deemed a climate changer

US NOAA with multi billion dollar fed funds and models PREDICTED this past winter would be warm...

In fact it was the coldest in 100 years and we had ZERO, repeat ZERO GDP growth in 1st quarter of 2014...

99% of the most prominent economists were WRONG because their economic models didn’t or don’t use weather forecasts or if they do they WERE WRONG

EL NINOS happening after a COLD PERIOD are WEAK...

REPEAT WEAK

IM sick and tired of being preached to by neer idiots who aren’t correct, or challenged on their lousey calls

climate change isn’t science its THEORY...it cant be replicated or they would be able to forecast 100% accurate

the sun has lost 50% of its convection heat and 30% of great lakes are still frozen


34 posted on 05/02/2014 9:11:47 PM PDT by Understand the stimulus
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To: Mastador1
I thought Joe Bastardi was predicting a relatively short lived, mild El Nino? Who ya gonna trust, Joe or the globull alarmists?

My first thought too - I'll take Joe's predictions (based on actual science and sentience) over these "climatologists" any day.

35 posted on 05/03/2014 3:43:10 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: MisterArtery
"That fraud at Colorado State has been putting out his hurricane predictions for years with zero credibility after the fact. The guy has been living off the public teat for years."

That was Dr Bill Gray. He retired and said that flipping a coin was as accurate as his hurricane predictions.

36 posted on 05/03/2014 3:52:15 AM PDT by blam
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To: The Duke
"16 years ago was only yesterday."

Me too.

37 posted on 05/03/2014 4:48:19 AM PDT by blam
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