Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Climate Researchers Think We Could Be In For The Most Powerful El Niņo In 16 Years
BI - The Conversation UK ^ | 5-2-2014 | Agus Santoso and Shayne McGregor

Posted on 05/02/2014 3:00:31 PM PDT by blam

Climate Researchers Think We Could Be In For The Most Powerful El Niño In 16 Years

The Conversation UK
Agus Santoso and Shayne McGregor, The Conversation UK
May 2, 2014, 5:31 PM

We have only just moved into May and despite being seven months away from next summer in the southern hemisphere, climate researchers are seeing the beginnings of what could be the most powerful El Niño event since 1997/98.

An El Niño is a change in Pacific Ocean and atmosphere that typically causes drought, extreme heat and bushfires in Australia.

Last year was a neutral El Niño and we have been surprisingly lucky with only a few small El Niño’s since the 21st century started, despite having two of the hottest years on record globally in 2005 and 2010.

The last really big El Niño was in 1997/98. It is no coincidence that 1998 is the only remaining year from the past century that still sits in the top 10 for the hottest years, globally, on record.

By itself, research shows an El Niño event can raise the global average temperature for the following year by 0.1 to 0.2C. It is one of the reasons many climate scientists have been concerned about what could happen if another strong El Niño was to occur.

The way things are shaping up in 2014 we may be about to find out.

Strong El Niño on the cards

Over the past month and a half, three strong westerly wind blasts along the equator appear to have triggered ocean subsurface warming. The warming has intensified and rolled to the eastern equatorial Pacific — a strong sign of a developing El Niño.

But it is not the ocean warming by itself that is significant

(snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: climate; climatechange; dought; elnino; extremeheat; globalwarming; manbearpig; miniiceage; pacific; weather
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-37 next last

1 posted on 05/02/2014 3:00:31 PM PDT by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: blam

Buy coffee (JO). Drought followed by drenching rains in Brazil. A gamble, of course; advice worth what you paid for it.


2 posted on 05/02/2014 3:02:12 PM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

I thought Joe Bastardi was predicting a relatively short lived, mild El Nino? Who ya gonna trust, Joe or the globull alarmists?


3 posted on 05/02/2014 3:03:55 PM PDT by Mastador1 (I'll take a bad dog over a good politician any day!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Mastador1

The article doesn’t say who is floating this prediction. But I am disinclined to give much credit to “Climate Researchers.”


4 posted on 05/02/2014 3:09:05 PM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: blam

OMG!!! We are doomed.


5 posted on 05/02/2014 3:09:18 PM PDT by Parmy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

http://www.iowafarmertoday.com/el-nino/image_a26e3156-9407-11e3-8e86-0019bb2963f4.html

A return of El Nino should lend itself to favorable growing conditions this year, says Art Douglas, a meteorologist with Creighton University in Omaha. He said ample moisture and more mild temperatures in July and August should boost crop production.


6 posted on 05/02/2014 3:10:42 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Mastador1
El Nino means more rain in the Western US. So why not report on that as well.

Why did they just mention drought in Australia?

7 posted on 05/02/2014 3:11:03 PM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Cicero

http://www.agprofessional.com/news/El-Nino-is-back-Maybe-so-248872131.html

On Thursday, federal forecasters issued an “El Niño watch,” indicating a 50 percent chance El Niño will develop this summer or fall.

However, El Niño’s return isn’t guaranteed.

“While all models predict warming in the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niño will develop during the summer or fall,” The National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration said in their announcement. “If westerly winds continue to emerge in the western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Niño would become more likely.”...


8 posted on 05/02/2014 3:13:14 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: blam

Climate researcher. Like an astrologer, without the credentials.


9 posted on 05/02/2014 3:13:54 PM PDT by lurk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam
Well, I will agree to one thing, we ARE in for one hell of a change for the next 10 years but it's not gonna be warm......

While the sun heats, the sun also cools.......

10 posted on 05/02/2014 3:15:03 PM PDT by Hot Tabasco (Under Reagan spring always arrived on time.....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: lurk

…………….reaching for my Poor Richards and farmers Almanac


11 posted on 05/02/2014 3:17:25 PM PDT by morphing libertarian
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: who_would_fardels_bear

Yes, it is great news. If it is anything like the El Niño of the Winter of 1997/98, the High Sierra of California will get a ton of snow which is where most of California gets its water.


12 posted on 05/02/2014 3:21:56 PM PDT by Inyo-Mono (NRA)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: blam

“could be”
“typically”
“can”
“could happen”
“may be”
“strong sign”
“appear to have”


13 posted on 05/02/2014 3:23:03 PM PDT by Fresh Wind (The last remnants of the Old Republic have been swept away.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jjotto

“... a 50 percent chance ...”
-
Coin toss?


14 posted on 05/02/2014 3:30:01 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (We have met the enemy and he is us.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: blam

Good! This was almost the snowiest, coldest winter here in decades. A good old El Niño will make for a milder, nicer winter here.


15 posted on 05/02/2014 3:34:29 PM PDT by A Formerly Proud Canadian (I once was blind but now I see...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam
"An El Niño is a change in Pacific Ocean and atmosphere that typically causes drought, extreme heat and bushfires in Australia."

More devastating than any of that, it could possibly trigger a Midnight Oil reunion tour....

16 posted on 05/02/2014 3:34:56 PM PDT by Joe 6-pack (Qui me amat, amat et canem meum.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Fresh Wind

May I quote your predictions?


17 posted on 05/02/2014 3:44:40 PM PDT by Ed Condon (subliminal messages here in invisible ink)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: blam

We can use the rain in CA.


18 posted on 05/02/2014 3:49:18 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam
Over the past month and a half, three strong westerly wind blasts along the equator appear to have triggered ocean subsurface warming.

Whaaa? Winds causing the ocean to warm - subsurface???

just damn. We need more taxes to stop those winds.

19 posted on 05/02/2014 3:52:29 PM PDT by Principled (Obama: Unblemished by success.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

I tell you! We need to contact AlGore and his minions of enviro moon bats to bring this El Nino stuff to an end, before it is too late. Several several (yes, 2x) years ago Algore addressed a crowd here in CA of screaming enviro moon bats and told how when notified that El Nino was coming they were able to defeat El Nino (more excited screaming) and stop it dead in it’s track. In other words, another super sonic mega disaster El Nino was forecasted due to global warming and again nothing happened for which the ever ready Algore took full credit.


20 posted on 05/02/2014 3:56:36 PM PDT by dirtymac (Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-37 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson