Skip to comments.Nordea (Bank) Warns Of EU Recession And $150 Oil If Russia Retaliates
Posted on 05/02/2014 3:04:36 PM PDT by tcrlaf
-Russia as important oil as gas supplier to Europe -Disruptions to Russian oil flows will have huge impact on oil prices -Embittered political climate, oil prices at USD 150/barrel and high financial market uncertainty can tip EU back into recession -Oil price spike and flight to safety a recipe for broad-based USD strengthening and lower global rates: three risk scenarios -US shale oil or SPR release will not prevent oil price spike
Oil prices have increased by more than USD 2/barrel today as tension in Ukraine has escalated and raise concerns about the risks of disruption in Russian energy exports. There is a risk that the security situation in the east Ukraine will worsen even further ahead of the 25 May elections.
Memories have been awakened of episodes in 2006 and 2009 when Gazprom halted all Russian gas flows through Ukraine, amid pricing disputes, completely cutting off supplies to Southern Europe and partially other European countries. Not nearly as much attention has been paid to the risk of a disruption to the oil flows.
.... the consequences of a cut in Russian oil supplies could be as rave since the oil global oil market has little back-up capacity to lean on, European commercial oil stocks are low and there is no real substitute for oil in the transportation sector (which accounts for more than 60% of total oil consumption worldwide).
(Excerpt) Read more at twitter.com ...
Thank goodness we have a big head start on the Keystone pipeline. < /s>
Remember the 2008 crises was precipitated by $150 oil which caused the Fed to raise interest rates.
I am very fortunate I have the capacity to work from home full time if need be. I cannot imagine the burden many families would go through if gas goes to $7.00 a gallon this summer.
The US will ship US gas and the Saudis will finally get the pipeline to Europe they've been wanting for a decade. Yeah, funny how those Saudis finally can justify the expense of a new pipeline now that Russian gas might be a problem. Until now, people saw no need for an alternate pipeline because Russia wasn't a problem.
Well, my, my, stir up trouble in the Ukraine with a mob to overthrow the government and suddenly "evil Russia" is back with the nerve to do exactly what everyone knew they would do, whatever they thought it would take to protect the Crimea.
It won't be long now until the Saudis are no longer ticked off over not having as much influence in the EU as they have in the US.
I bet it's All Ugh that stirred things up so the Saudis end up the winners no matter what else happens, right?
Bulgaria approving the South Stream Project over the Turkey Syria connection last week likely has A LOT to do with today’s events.
Frack baby frack.
“Remember the 2008 crises was precipitated by $150 oil which caused the Fed to raise interest rates.”
That’s been my contention all along. That spike in oil prices sent the whole house of cards tumbling.
If Europe doesn’t have the guts to take a hard stance against Putin now by unilaterally refusing to buy his hydrocarbons, then Putin will show up on their doorstep tomorrow and take their house at gunpoint.
Does any European have a pair anymore?
The routing across Syria is very, very, interesting since the Saudis had settled for an alternate, longer route, that didn't pass through Syria at all. Someone seems sure Syria will go along with the eastern most part of the country being open to a pipeline now when it wasn't before.
Talk about bad timing. Israel’s Mediterranean Sea Leviathan gas field probably won’t come on line until 2015. This field will probably provide some relief to Europe until the stupid EU fascist bureaucrats can get kicked in the head to stop the stupid global warming crap and the incessant drive for alternative energy sources that will never meet the energy needs of Europe.
God knows that Europe needs a revolution to clean out the Brussel’s Nazi scum.
It seems to me the meltdown in the financial markets could have been averted by curbing speculation in the oil futures market (by raising margin requirements or limiting the amount of contracts a trader could hold for example) - but nothing was done. Perhaps the crash was engineered?