I’ve seen that theory, and it could be. But the first big problem is that is a US national interest, which I don’t think the Kenyan bumbler really cares about enough to take action on. Plus, in my opinion, it wouldn’t have warranted the risk of creating a government-vacuum in Kiev and the associated instability, which anyone should recognize can go in any direction. It is also convinent for the money-men that by saying it was the mideast, it diverts attention from the fact they may be desperate enough to risk a world war over what is coming in Europe. Did somebody say propaganda?
The only thing I’ve seen that makes sense is Ukraine was drifting from the EU (wisely in my opinion), with last year’s pro-moscow trade agreement and the rejection of the EU agreement. The EU is like a big ponzi scheme. It’s coming down at some point, it will take all it’s members with it, and now any risk is worthwhile, to try and keep it respectable/operational as long as possible.
I don’t think it is a coincidence that the first thing the new government did was sign EU association and IMF agreements. Or that the second thing they did was ship all of their gold to the US, “for safekeeping.”
The ONLY thing I disagree with you about is whether or not Ukraine is in the US interests.
I define interests as economic and security. We have very, very little economic/trade interests in Ukraine. We have more interest in the Afghan Rare Earth Elements than we do in Ukraine.
I do not see a direct security threat there either. I doubt that Putin would put NATO in jeopardy. The Soviet leaders never had the balls to do that.
It will be interesting to see if this stuff shifts to the East. While China has interests in islands that are in dispute with Japan and the PI, Russia has some claims on islands there.
If we see it move to the East, then I will believe that Putin has more grandiose ideas. Until he either continues west beyond Ukraine/Moldova or East to piss off Japan...I think it is out of our national security interest.
Of course, that is a moving target these days, isn’t it?