BTTT !
Peak oil was a fraud perpetrated on us by collusion of our most important institutions. Government, Science, Industry, Religion. We are lied to cradle to grave about pretty much everything.
What is more important than trust in a Republic?
Shale is a promoters wildest dream come true.
It is simply not self-sustaining though. They pay enough fast enough to pay out but they don’t continue the pace very long and don’t make enough to pay for other wells.
You have to drill incessantly to keep the shale story good and going.
The planning for Mars was done more than two decades ago when 2,800’ of water was deep. Production forecasts went out 50 years. The second phase TLP came in about 20 years. So far the second TLP has come in about 20 years. We were told to never show the slide with the 50 year production and funds forecast because nobody would believe it. Mars is Pliocene / Miocene and one of the few large salt flanked mini basins along the turbodite flow area.
The Lower Tertiary and Jurassic are even bigger. We have only nicked the carbonates in a few places. Some of us think that the carbonates are the really BIG prize. It will be tough to find out. A geologist friend of mine always said that the prospect story only gets better until you drill. I hope I get to be around to find out what is there. If I cant’ I hope my son is and will tell me all about it.
Peak Oil is defined by a combination of price and flow rate. We will hit Peak Oil one day when something more competitive comes along or when someone mandates that oil die, that would be a mistake. For now though there is no better, no less expensive, no higher energy density portable fuel available. I do not see a good portable fuel alternative to oil on any horizon.
I believe Thorium is one answer to our longer term energy needs and that it could replace coal and oil or natural gas for most of our stationary energy needs. Thorium energy will take a national will and leadership and effort like the moon program to accomplish. I do not see that coming in this country. We have no national will or focus anymore. We are more focused on playing to the hyphenated-americans self-interests and so we are not focused on much at all. China and India will beat us to Thorium Energy and reap huge benefits from it.
Solar and wind will probably remain as trinkets for the feel good flat earth society.
While we may never run out of oil we should eventually run out of the economic will to produce it.
OTC starts today. There are always a few visionaries there, a lot of capitalists and a more than a few promoters.