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The Numbers Donít Lie: Jeb Canít Win
Yahoo News via Daily Beast ^ | 05/05/2014 | By Michael Tomasky

Posted on 05/05/2014 7:28:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

As we know, the search for an “establishment” candidate has been on in the GOP for a while now, a savior who can rescue the party from Rand Paul or Ted Cruz. That man, of course, is Jeb Bush. Last week on Hardball, Kathleen Parker said he is definitely running. She’s a conservative columnist but not a wacko, has establishment GOP credentials and Florida ties to boot. And she spoke with the air of someone who had had this nugget leaked to her specifically so that she would go out on national TV and blurt it out.

So take the idea of a Bush candidacy seriously. He’ll get many of the biggest donors and most plugged-in operatives, and he’ll immediately be spoken of by the media as a, if not the, GOP frontrunner.

So far, so normal. But here’s where things get interesting. Historically, “establishment” in this context also basically means “most formidable” and “most electable.” Look at the track record. Mitt Romney was the establishment candidate in 2012, John McCain in 2008, Jeb’s brother in 2000. Two of these three never became president, but there’s no doubt that all three were the best the GOP had to offer in their given years. Who would have run better than McCain in 2008? Maybe, possibly Romney himself. But not Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul. And 2012’s lineup besides Romney was comic relief. Any one of them couldn’t have topped 200 electoral votes. And Dubya, of course, won. (Well, “won,” but that’s a different column.)

It’s an iron law of presidential politics: The establishment candidate is, almost by definition, the most formidable candidate. Well, I guess iron ain’t what it used to be, because here’s the funny thing: Jeb Bush is not any stronger against Hillary Clinton

(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016; 2016election; 2016gopprimary; 2016polls; amnesty; bush2016; deport; deportjebbush; designatedloser; gop; jeb2016; jebbush
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1 posted on 05/05/2014 7:28:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
I am cool with the thesis, Jeb Bush will not win.

HOWEVER

This is The Daily Beast (Newsweak) by way of Yahoo News... *THE* two most biased internet propaganda sites for the left out there.

2 posted on 05/05/2014 7:30:39 PM PDT by Lazamataz (Early 2009 to 7/21/2013 - RIP my little girl Cathy. You were the best cat ever. You will be missed.)
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To: SeekAndFind

“And 2012’s lineup besides Romney was comic relief. “

You know, GOPe is amenable to a conservative winning. But you have to admit, the 2012 challengers to Romney were jokes.


3 posted on 05/05/2014 7:32:38 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: SeekAndFind
All the more reason for the GOPe to nominate him.
4 posted on 05/05/2014 7:32:49 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("The more numerous the laws, the more corrupt the government." --Tacitus)
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To: Lazamataz

He’s not supposed to win, that’s the only way the ruling class can maintain their membership in the club.


5 posted on 05/05/2014 7:33:36 PM PDT by eyeamok
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To: SeekAndFind

He can’t win? he’s the prefect GOPe pick!

They almost always pick the loser.


6 posted on 05/05/2014 7:33:36 PM PDT by cableguymn (It's time for a second political party.)
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To: SeekAndFind

George Will today on Fox Special Report stated that the Republican nominee will NOT be a supporter of Common Core.
Bret Baeir then said, “Jeb Bush supports common core”
Will says, “Correct”


7 posted on 05/05/2014 7:33:37 PM PDT by dontreadthis
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To: SeekAndFind

Its the wrong question. The question is why would I even care if he could? He is another Obama, only dressed in more patriotic bunting, white, and with a different dialect.
The window dressing issues will be different, but essentially, he’s no different.


8 posted on 05/05/2014 7:35:52 PM PDT by DesertRhino (I was standing with a rifle, waiting for soviet paratroopers, but communists just ran for office.)
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To: eyeamok

He is a nerd. He is like his “establishment” daddy and grand daddy. We invaded the wrong damned country— Saudis attacked us — not Shiites in Iraq. What a joke.


9 posted on 05/05/2014 7:39:06 PM PDT by SADMILLIE
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To: staytrue

you have to admit, Romney was the biggest joke...


10 posted on 05/05/2014 7:41:11 PM PDT by Tennessee Nana
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To: eyeamok

Win? THE GOP?
Yeah, all that matters to the GOP-e is that they cock-block a viable conservative candidate.
We didn’t even get to vote in 2008 here in IN before Juan McCain was ensconced as the designated GOP looser to BamBam’s ‘Hope&Change’ BS. Then Mittens. Next, that fat youngest brother? No thanks!
If the GOP don’t want to run to win, they can KMA and loose without my help.


11 posted on 05/05/2014 7:42:11 PM PDT by tumblindice (America's founding fathers: all armed conservatives)
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To: SeekAndFind

A close relative of Jeb’s said I should “Get behind Jeb”. I told him after what Jeb said about invaders’ “act of love” I couldn’t.

I told him that Jeb saying that was a calculated way of calling those who oppose amnesty hard hearted and an attempt to make us feel guilty about our position. He didn’t seem surprised or put off by my assertion.


12 posted on 05/05/2014 7:47:07 PM PDT by raybbr (Obamacare needs a death panel.)
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To: SeekAndFind

He has very little support.

The GOP has no one to run. Not anyone.

That, along with Boehner’s appointing Gowdy as special prosecutor, spells out the non testosterone surrender.

To me.


13 posted on 05/05/2014 7:47:13 PM PDT by stanne
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To: SeekAndFind

If ultra-far-left Michael Tomasky likes what Kathleen Parker has to say, what does that tell the rest of us?


14 posted on 05/05/2014 7:48:22 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: dontreadthis

Even George Will sees it?


15 posted on 05/05/2014 7:49:14 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: SeekAndFind

Mrs. Tomasky’s little Mickey just wet his pants again.


16 posted on 05/05/2014 7:50:00 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Obama's smidgens are coming home to roost.)
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To: tumblindice

“all that matters to the GOP-e is that they cock-block a viable conservative candidate.”

Which one was that ? Fred Thompson in 08 or Newt in 12 ?


17 posted on 05/05/2014 7:54:14 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Will is likely looking for a Governor, other than Christie


18 posted on 05/05/2014 7:55:42 PM PDT by dontreadthis
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To: stanne

“The GOP has no one to run. Not anyone.”

You guys are all the same. Bash Bush but can’t come up with any viable alternative.


19 posted on 05/05/2014 7:55:48 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: SADMILLIE

True. I supported Bush’s war against Iraq, because I thought he did it in order to secure an oil supply. Once we had that, then we could take on the Saudis, the chief backers of 9/11. If they blew up their oil rigs before we won that war, then the Iraqi oil would keep us supplied until we repaired the Saudi rigs.

Bush’s initial handling of the war on Saddam, and the military leaders he chose (working around the clintonoid leaders in the Pentagon) was very well done. But then things started going down hill, and it gradually became apparent that Bush had no intention of dealing with the real terrorists and their Saudi sponsors.

Then Bush ended up giving the Iraqi oil to France and China. All that blood, sweat, and tax money was wasted, in the end, after what looked like a successful start.


20 posted on 05/05/2014 7:57:24 PM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: stanne
that, along with Boehner’s appointing Gowdy as special prosecutor, spells out the non testosterone surrender.

Seriously? Gowdy is a pit bull of a prosecutor who never lost a case. He's absolutely the best choice for this position. Boehner, I don't doubt, was forced to pick Gowdy by conservatives who want to see those responsible for Benghazi held accountable. This is the best possible outcome.

21 posted on 05/05/2014 8:01:36 PM PDT by Mase (Save me from the people who would save me from myself!)
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To: Cicero

“Then Bush ended up giving the Iraqi oil to France and China. “

Bush did not give oil to anyone.

Iraq is selling on the open market and China is buying.

When I buy gas at the pump, no one is “giving” it to me.
I am paying for it.

France and China are paying for the Iraqi oil.


22 posted on 05/05/2014 8:01:52 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This country has turned to funk. Both Jeb and Hillary look “old news” to many more voters than in 2008, nevermind back in her heyday, ions ago.

I suspect Rand Paul may be attractive to younger funk voters against Hillary runs (and I don’t see how she does).

I have no idea if there can really be enough conservatives left in the USA any more to place a real conservative in office.


23 posted on 05/05/2014 8:03:26 PM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CHRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming.)
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To: staytrue

“She’s a conservative columnist but not a wacko,” Kathleen Parker is a leftist wacko, just like this jerk.


24 posted on 05/05/2014 8:04:05 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: SeekAndFind

Maybe Jeb visits FR to gauge public reaction?


25 posted on 05/05/2014 8:07:49 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (Pubbies = national collectivists; Dems = international collectivists; We need a second party!)
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To: Mase

the non testosterone surrender is grahamccainboner to Gowdy, the Jack Bauer of prosecutors, gearing up for this fight that he can not and will not lose to Tina Fey, Maher, shieffer, Crowley, juan Williams, carney, bo Hillary.


26 posted on 05/05/2014 8:08:44 PM PDT by stanne
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To: staytrue

If that’s the whine, you will not be pleased with what Gowdy can and prolly will do to your appeasement group.


27 posted on 05/05/2014 8:10:07 PM PDT by stanne
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To: SeekAndFind
The Numbers Don’t Lie: Jeb Can’t Win

But the GOP hears: Jeb is the only electable candidate!

28 posted on 05/05/2014 8:12:11 PM PDT by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: SeekAndFind

“Remember how back in the mid-2000s, GOP operatives speaking on background used to drop quotes in the press averring that he was “the smart one”? Well, lately I’ve been thinking maybe George was the smart one.”

Neil and Marvin were the smart brothers. They stayed out of politics.


29 posted on 05/05/2014 8:13:52 PM PDT by Soul of the South (Yesterday is gone. Today will be what we make of it.)
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To: Tennessee Nana

No I Do Not Agree. Romney was NOT a “joke” as you put it. Romney was And Still Is what America needs to stop the bleeding out of all that is strong and influential about todays America. It is Obama and his blinkered supporters who are the real caustic Clowns.


30 posted on 05/05/2014 8:25:39 PM PDT by lee martell
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To: RitaOK

“Both Jeb and Hillary look “old news” to many more voters than in 2008, nevermind back in her heyday, ions ago.”

Kind of reminds me of 1968. Nixon vs. Humphrey. Most of the electorate really did not give a darn about that election.


31 posted on 05/05/2014 8:25:46 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: SeekAndFind

Please! No more Bushes, Clintons, Romneys, or Obamas.


32 posted on 05/05/2014 8:27:25 PM PDT by Texicanus (Texas, it's a whole 'nother country.)
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To: RitaOK; Impy; fieldmarshaldj; NFHale; sickoflibs

“Rand Paul”

I like him.

But I think the winning candidate for the GOP is IN Gov. Mike Pence.


33 posted on 05/05/2014 8:28:23 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (Khent is not stable... be advised...)
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To: SeekAndFind
NOT votin' for Jeb. America was started to get away from dynasties.--No Clintons, either.

vaudine

34 posted on 05/05/2014 8:29:51 PM PDT by vaudine
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To: raybbr

I would vote for Pelosi before I’d vote for Jeb. And I would vote for Pelosi one minute after hell froze over...


35 posted on 05/05/2014 8:31:55 PM PDT by GOPJ ( Are we finally going to get a smidgen of truth? - - Freeper Veto!)
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To: GOPsterinMA; RitaOK; sickoflibs; fieldmarshaldj; NFHale; InterceptPoint; BillyBoy; ...

I gotta oppose Rand, sure he’s better than Jeb and Cristie Creme but he and his daddy are kooks and I think he’d probably fall on his face in a POTUS campaign.

I’ve been going back and forth on Walker and Cruz. Right now I’m thinking Walker. Pence is another good choice.

It’s hard to come up with many other good names. It says a lot that Rand looks good compared to most of them.

The “establishment” is in trouble because it’s top dogs are a guy with an unelectable last name and fat sack of abrasive garbage. They may have to go with Paul Ryan as their pick. Walker versus Ryan would be weird.d probably fall on his face in a POTUS campaign.

I


36 posted on 05/05/2014 8:41:49 PM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: SeekAndFind

Jeb will not win...I am looking at Cruz or Perry.


37 posted on 05/05/2014 8:44:28 PM PDT by ExCTCitizen (I'm ExCTCitizen and I approve this reply. If it does offend Libs, I'm NOT sorry...)
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To: GOPsterinMA
JUNE 27, 2006 6:13 AM

Say It Ain’t So, Mike

The Pence immigration plan has let conservatives down.


38 posted on 05/05/2014 8:51:09 PM PDT by Bratch
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Kathleen Parker IS NOT A CONSERVATIVE


39 posted on 05/05/2014 8:58:19 PM PDT by Sioux-san
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To: GOPsterinMA

Hey! GOPsterinMA!

Yes! I like Pence very much, too.

I believe a split-the-difference Republican could maybe beat Hillary, and Pence is that type— not yet seen as a “right wing whacko”, by the mind shapers, nor is he seen as an Establishment player.

If Hillary doesn’t run, and “Pocohontis” takes the Dem nomination, just about anybody can beat her.

I am thinking the new electorate out there is weird. :) Rita


40 posted on 05/05/2014 9:01:18 PM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CHRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Kathleen Parker is not a conservative!!!


41 posted on 05/05/2014 9:03:06 PM PDT by Essie
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To: Lazamataz

Yeah your right, savor the moment, it’s very rare we get to agree with leftists, once in a lifetime thing, may never happen again.


42 posted on 05/05/2014 9:03:51 PM PDT by PoloSec ( Believe the Gospel: how that Christ died for our sins, was buried and rose again)
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To: SeekAndFind

I do not think Jeb wants to win. He wants Hillary Clinton to. Why? I cannot say for sure but those upper crust people like Mitt and Jeb like socialism. They just want someone else to get their hands dirty.


43 posted on 05/05/2014 9:13:40 PM PDT by minnesota_bound
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To: SeekAndFind

this is so ridiculous.

Regardless of philosophy or what wing of the party he comes from, it is beyond absurd for anyone to suggest running another Bush at this point in time would bring electoral success - even if the prior Bush had left office with glowing popularity.

Many times we don’t like what the establishment does, but it can be understood why they are doing it. This I don’t get - at all - if in fact they are pushing him to run.


44 posted on 05/05/2014 9:16:22 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: SeekAndFind
Two of these three never became president, but there’s no doubt that all three were the best the GOP had to offer in their given years.

That chose to run, I guess...

John Thune was apparently "told" not to run in 2012.

45 posted on 05/05/2014 9:18:35 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Cicero
Your comments reflect gross ignorance at worst and jumping to bad conclusions at best.

Bush did not invade Iraq to secure the oil supply. I suggest you reread (or perhaps read) the history from the early part of the aughts.

46 posted on 05/05/2014 9:22:50 PM PDT by Dave W
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To: Tennessee Nana
A joke only to those like you who are frankly quite ignorant. Those like you who whine when a politician does not agree with your ideas 100% of the time. Those like you who are immature and pout and will take your ball home and refuse to play because a candidate does bow to your will and pay homage to your ego.

Frankly, I am more than happy to see Obama giving you 0% of what you want versus the 70% of what Romney would have offered.

The absolutists like you are destroying the country as much as Obama is.

47 posted on 05/05/2014 9:35:31 PM PDT by Dave W
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To: SeekAndFind
Democrats obviously won't vote for Bush (or any GOP candidate), independents pretty much dislike the Bush family, so they won't vote for him, and there will be a fair number of conservatives that won't vote for him either. So no, Bush can't win, so the goal is clearly to ensure that a conservative doesn't get the nomination.

It is getting closer and closer to time for a new party, I'm afraid.

48 posted on 05/05/2014 10:18:52 PM PDT by Major Matt Mason ("Journalism is dead. All news is suspect." - Noamie)
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To: staytrue
Bush did not give oil to anyone.

As I recall one of the selling points of the war was Iraq could repay us, but that was the same lie that was told when we ejected Hussein from Kuwait. They proclaimed we would be repaid for our service, but the only one who paid was our servicemen and their families.

lying traitors the whole lot of them.

49 posted on 05/05/2014 11:25:04 PM PDT by itsahoot (Voting for a Progressive RINO is the same as voting for any other Tyrant.)
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To: SeekAndFind
If the banksters back him, Jeb wins easily. And since they hated Hillary enough to back Obama over her in 2008, I'd say Jeb will win 2016 in a walk.

Which will do nothing for conservatives, true, but at least we won't have to stare at Hillary on TV any more.

50 posted on 05/05/2014 11:48:37 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ([CTRL-GALT-DELETE])
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