Posted on 05/09/2014 5:19:53 AM PDT by Kaslin
Results of Tuesday's primaries, particularly the victory of state House Speaker Thom Tillis in North Carolina's Republican Senate primary, are being hailed -- or decried -- as a victory for the Republican establishment over the Tea Party movement.
There's something to that. Tillis benefited from support from Karl Rove's American Crossroads and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and endorsements by Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush.
In contrast, Sen. Rand Paul flew in on the day before the election to campaign for second-place finisher and fellow physician Greg Bannon, who was also endorsed by Tea Party Patriots and FreedomWorks. Mike Huckabee campaigned for the third-place candidate, minister Mark Harris.
Some conservative bloggers are making much of the fact that Tillis received less than a majority of the vote. But his 46 percent topped the 40 percent threshold to avoid a runoff in July. And his margin over Bannon, who won 27 percent of the vote, would be counted a solid victory in a state without runoffs.
Political reporters have described this race and other Republican primary contests as battles between national political players. But I think the more important thing is what the result tells us about the state of mind of Republican primary voters.
This year Republican voters seem more inclined than in 2010 and 2012 to vote for those who appear likely to be strong general election candidates and less inclined to vote for candidates who stand up on chairs and yell, "Hell no!"
Brannon made statements comparing food stamps to slavery and founded an organization with conspiracy theories on its website. Plenty of fodder for Democratic ads if he had won the nomination.
That doesn't mean that Republican voters have given up on conservatism and are content to vote for RINOs (Republicans in Name Only). Tillis could point to a solid conservative voting record in the legislature.
As Speaker of the North Carolina House, he led successful efforts to cut taxes and authorize charter schools.
The legislature controversially cut extended unemployment benefits -- a measure followed by the steepest decline in unemployment in any state.
Tillis concentrated his fire on incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan and her deciding vote for Obamacare. He argued that the barrage of anti-Tillis ads and mailings by Hagan's campaign and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid showed that Democrats regarded him as the Republican most likely to win in November.
This is not to say that Republican voters are entirely pleased with incumbents. Two North Carolina incumbents beat challengers by relatively narrow margins.
In the second congressional district, Renee Elmers, attacked for supporting immigration measures, including legalization, won, 59 to 41 percent.
In the third congressional district, Walter Jones, attacked for dovish views on foreign policy, won, 51 to 45 percent.
And in Ohio's 14th congressional district, freshman David Joyce won, 55 to 45 percent. But House Speaker John Boehner got a solid 69 percent against multiple opponents in the Ohio eighth.
Republican primary voters seem to have passed through and out of a cycle that is apparent in both parties' core constituencies: In the last years of the second term of a party's president, the party's wingers grow restive.
They are disappointed that their side's president has not accomplished all they hoped and has compromised on what they believe are core principles.
Thus, after eight years of George W. Bush's presidency, Republican primary voters were pleased to reject likely general election winners in favor of seemingly more principled (and provocative) opponents.
This attitude may have cost Republicans Senate seats -- certainly in Delaware in 2010, arguably in Nevada and Colorado that year, and Indiana and Missouri in 2012.
Tea Party admirers point out, accurately, candidates who started off as insurgents -- Mike Lee, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz -- won solid victories and have injected needed new ideas and energy into the party.
Overall, Republican officeholders have internalized and acted on the Tea Party agenda. That's why the primary challenge to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell seems likely to fail later this month.
Something similar is happening to Democrats in President Obama's sixth year in office: The left-wingers are getting restive.
Evidence includes the election of New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, the talk of an Elizabeth Warren presidential candidacy, billionaire Tom Steyer's $100 million crusade against the Keystone XL pipeline.
But left-wing Democrats aren't challenging many incumbents and establishment favorites -- yet. That could come if and when currently energized Republicans win the presidency.
The democrats and republicans just need to merge their parties and be done with it.
You cannot vehemently fight against your erstwhile base (on whom you have depended on to get out the Republican vote these many years in general elections for candidates that effectively cannot even wipe their own arses) and realistically expect them to just suck it up and hold their noses - again!
You GOPe types are risking everything, and you aren't going to get any new Hispanic voters because you want to capitulate on Amnesty for illegals. Not gonna happen. Instead you'll be complaining about the 5 million that sat it out, again. And then you'll start the whole cycle again for 2016. How many times do you have to get hit upside the head with a 2 by 4?
Lots of meaning packed into that word “win”. If a RINO wins we lose.
In Michigan the GOP isn’t challenging a single democrat held seat but they are challenging tea party held seats.
There is a republican challenging for the Dingell seat but he’s doing it without even token GOP support.
Barone, you cut-up. How about some evidence?
The NeoWhig Party’s last grasp at power....
I respect DemonRats in one way because they are proud progressives and are not trying to hide it. The GOPe types are progressive light trying to fool Conservatives. Better my enemy in front of me than behind me.
I like Barone. Classy fella.
Barone = Establishment.
Hate to say it but Barone is probably accurate
Tillis strikes me as an imperfect but acceptable candidate. The other challengers may have been better on the issues, but they both had serious baggage that would have prevented them from actually focusing on the issues during the general election.
Lee, Paul and Cruz are good examples of how Conservatives can win nomination fights in states that already lean (solidly) Conservative. Rubio had the advantage of being Hispanic in Florida working for him. We should have been smarter in DE, IN and possibly MO (Akin seemed fine until he stuck his foot in his mouth, then refused to quit the race)
The problem as I see it is that Liberals take the long view of politics and are willing to be patient as their agenda is advanced over years of not decades. They trade away 100% wins for 50% or 25% wins knowing and planning that they’ll come back for the rest later. Obamacare, for instance, wasn’t something sudden and out of the blue: it’s development stretched back to Truman and the Libs steadily pushed for it until they had the bare minimum to make it happen. Then took their shot. Same thing with gay marriage.
Conservatives strike me a lot as being ADHD in their politics. Expecting quick and immediate results and demanding hail mary passes to advance our agenda, ignoring the fact that long, boring and frustrating slogs are what really gets the work done.
This sort of mindset works to our disadvantage, and plays right into the Libs hands.
Those FReepers that keep licking that GOPe boot can't seem to keep they little opinions to themselves, they reveal their true pissant nature.
Look at the trash they’re running against Kerry Bentivolio in Michigan.
http://trottforcongress.com/issues/
Zero mention of immigration or border control. Pro second amendment (with qualifiers). No absolute opposition to abortion.
His supporters can only say “Look at his fundraising”. Of course he can raise funds, the anti tea party chamber of cronyism is backing him.
“Tillis benefited from support from Karl Rove’s American Crossroads and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and endorsements by Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush. “
This is BS. Tillis won because he was the better candidate.
Rove, Romney and Bush meant nothing.
Moral of the story: THE BETTER CANDIDATE WINS ELECTIONS.
If they want to run RINOs they should run them in those democrat district where they might do some actual good.
Licker number reporting in.
You crazy conservatives don’t get it.
You can’t pick some ignorant no name yahoo with no record of achievement and think this guy will be a good politician simply because he mouths the words “reform DC, pro life, pro gun, hate Obamacare”
Run a good candidate, one who has earned name recognition via a long record of past accomplishments is any field, run an intelligent candidate, and he has a good chance of winning regardless of ideology.
“In Michigan the GOP isn’t challenging a single democrat held seat but they are challenging tea party held seats. “
GOOSE/GANDER.
The teaparty regularly challenges GOPe and rarely goes after democrat incumbents.
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