Skip to comments.Investment & Finance Thread (May 10 edition)
Posted on 05/10/2014 10:39:26 AM PDT by expat_panama
imho this past week is what I'd call a 'head-scratcher', but here are some other people's ho's:
(click on pic to enlarge)
Honestly, this still isn't anything we could call 'market direction'.
OK, so the Dow hit a record. Sort of. More likely what the large caps are hitting is a tightening range between solid resistance and firm support. Then again, while what we've been seeing is flat/nowhere, this kind of pattern is usually what gurus refer to as 'bullish' because it bespeaks consolidation and presents a solid base to build on.
This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our--
Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well. Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket.
Saturday afternoon traveling advance ping.
Have a good trip.
fwiw, I’ll still be jumping in & out as usual, but it’s just that I won’t always have a say in when that can be...
Here’s an interesting read
Why the Stock Market Could Rise 74% in the Next Three Years
Futures are up this morning.
And in the “say it ain’t so” department
Fed Chair: Deficits Will Rise to Will Rise to Unsustainable Levels
whoa, what the heck happened? I turn my back for a day and everything soars! Anyway, still pluggng things in/setting up here but it but it looks like this morning futures have stocks up/metals down. Be w/ y'all in a bit...
S&P 1,901 - record high
Now at 1897.14 --almost a hundredth of a percent over what it was on Apr. 4. True, it's a record, but still not exactly what I'd be calling a 'market direction'.
imho those are very well done trend lines; I checked and tose lines could have been drawn back a few more months earlier even. My concern now though is volume indicators, but in all honesty they can be argued either way so my bottom line is I’ll be in no hurry today to dump my S&P index funds...
Interesting. While reading that I came across this article, The Republican Plan to Rein in Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve
My first thought when I read the headline was what are their plans to rein in congress and the president? I think that is a bigger problem than the Fed.
be late again today having to remove the bing virus
be late again today having to remove the bing virus
be late again today having to remove the bing virus
sorry about that folks, extraordinary attack but seems ok now...
The Fed isn’t the issue. It is, as you day, the fiscal side. The Fed can only do so much. The politicians have choked off growth. It’s pretty amazing the economy has done as well as it has (and sub 2% GDP, frankly,sucks).
Hensarling wants rules? What about the 2% PCE and sub 6% U3 that was set out two years ago? Way too many GOP people simply don’t understand monetary policy and he nature of inflation (i.e. Market Monetarists as per Kudlow and Pethakoukis). If it were up to them they would have tightened two years ago. For an example of what that does see 1937-38.
Nouriel Roubini Just Presented A New List Of Risks To The Global Economy
In financial circles, academic Nouriel Robin is known as “Dr. Doom.” On Wednesday morning at the SALT Las Vegas hedge fund conference, he tried to give a crowd full of journalists and financial professionals some sugar with their medicine.
Roubini presented a list of six receding global risks, and six new rising global risks.
Lets start with the good news. Here are the risks that are fading out of sight.
- It looks like the Euro Zone is going to stay together the Grexit isn’t going to happen and austerity is almost over.
- The United States is out of the woods in terms of a potential fiscal crisis, and it seems like Democrats and Republicans have come to a truce on the fiscal cliff.
- The risk of deflation in Japan has fallen thanks to Abenomics, at least for now.
- The risk of deflation in all advanced economies, in fact, is low thanks to quantitative easing. “Of course inflation is still too low,” he added.
- The Middle East Pakistan, Afghanistan, Syria etc. is still a mess, but investors just don’t care as long as it’s not messing with oil and gas supply.
So that’s the good news, now for the bad news.
- China! “Some people believe in a hard landing... some people believe in a softer landing,” said Roubini. “I worry about a bumpy, tougher landing.”
- What does that mean? Growth of 6% or less by 2016 and the continuation of bad investment policies. Roubini does not believe the market is pricing this in yet.
- A policy mistake by the Fed. For example, lets say the Fed decides to set the Fed Funds Rate at 3% rather than too, and that turns out to be too high. Maybe the Fed exits QE too soon.
Roubini sees a “secular stagnation in advanced economies,” thanks in part to income inequality. Right now companies are rich but they’re not spending any of that money on capital expenditures. They don’t see the demand.
Why? Because of income equality. “High debt and inequality are slowing down consumption.” In consumption based, advanced economies, “that’s a problem,” said Roubini.
There are six new countries that are fragile for political and economic reasons Argentina, Venezuela, Thailand, Ukraine, Russia, and Hungary.
An expansionist Russia. “Putin is not just after Ukraine, he wants to create a Eurasian union,” said Roubini. It’s a 20 year process that would join a bunch of countries in Eastern Europe politically and economically.
Japan and China are really getting angry at each other.”I was quite disturbed at the World Economic Forum... senior officials were talking about relations between China and Japan being like Britain and Germany before WWI.” You’ve got nationalist governments in both countries, and xenophobic elements that could be exacerbated if either country’s economy goes sour. This conflict would spill out to the rest of Asia too to Korea and India at the very least.
Sweet dreams everyone.
wtf —there’s no fiscal crisis but we’ve got a big problem w/ China and income inequality?
No fiscal cliff type of crisis looming. China is a potential drag if they have a hard landing. Their government fueled multi-bubbles are going to burst and it will drag on the global economy.
I wouldn’t define the “growth” issue as inequality. But you’ve pointed out that real median incomes have declined. But if you look at the top 10% they have increased and the bottom 90% have fallen faster. The top 10% can’t drive consumer spending for long. But the problem is a lack of growth. Not “inequality.”
We agree that's wrong, that income inequality is good, and that we want people to be different.
No fiscal cliff type of crisis looming.
It may not be looming in the ultra left press we're subjected to, but lack of perception will do nothing to let the nation avoid getting stuck with $trillions in interest outlays brought about by years of excessive and profligate federal spending.
I think your definition of “income inequality” is simplified. There will always be differences. The issue is when a small portion of those earners have income increasing significantly and the largest portion are seeing incomes decline, it’s going to cause problems in the economy. The top 10% cannot sustain the growth of the economy.
Now many leftists think the so,union is to raise taxes. That’s just stupid. The problem is growth. As we’ve discussed numerous times growth is decidedly insufficient due to the regulatory and fiscal environment.
As a nice byproduct, growth solves the long term fiscal issues as well. We absolutely cannot cut spending enough to solve them.
This goes along with what you are saying. The regulatory burden is crushing small banks and small businesses.
Where Have You Gone, George Bailey?
Nobody's offered a new definition here so the words "income inequality" have to mean what they mean. We want it and we don't want income equality.
The study of fixed exclusive income strata however raises other issues. You raised the question of whether America's worse off if average incomes increase while "the largest portion are seeing incomes decline". We do not know if this is the case --what we know is that the Census Br says real median incomes are less than they were 8 years ago. Even if they're correct it may not be the result of declining incomes for most people but rather the result of new entrants to the labor force from say, demographics or immigration. We don't know, and we can't say something we don't know is bad enough to require raising taxes.
Income castes are bad where lower castes are not allowed upward mobility. That's not the case in the US as most Americans are able to rise up through quintiles and one out of eight Americans are eventually able to make it to the infamous "one percent" that the occupy folks want to murder. What we do want is (like you sad) is economic growth --an expanding economy and rising productivity-- and we're together on the idea that "growth is decidedly insufficient due to the regulatory and fiscal environment". mho is that at its core the main obstacle we face is a class warfare borne of envy.
Americans are allowed to fall out of the upper income brackets as well. That’s critical, too. The other part of this is single entry accounting. Incomes can fall in an increasing productivity economy and the cost of goods also makes a lower income not lose any purchasing power. It can actually gain purchasing power in that case.
Good morning all! Right now we got futures flat for metals and upbeat for stocks after yesterday's drop in lower volume. With stocks it seems the divergence continues as small stocks drag below moving averages while the Dow/S&P hit record highs. Claims & inflations #"s today. This mornings headlines:
Bonds are quietly outperforming stocks Los Angeles Times - 8:24am A trader watches a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday. A trader watches a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday.
Stock Markets Had a Rough Second Yesterday - Matt Levine, Bloomberg
Do Alternative Investments Fit In Your Portfolio? - Wall Street Journal
Now the Time To Jump Into Surging India? - John Kimelman, Barron's
Europe's economy underperforms with weakness from France to Italy Growth of just 0.2% for the currency bloc, half as much as economists had forecast, adds pressure on the European Central Bank to deliver stimulus measures next month in its battle against weak inflation and anemic output.
Why U.S. Firms Are Desperate for Foreign Spouses. Hint: Taxes
Consumer prices +0.3% vs. FactSet Consensus 0.3%
Initial Claims +298K vs. FactSet Consensus +320K
Census Br. numbers really do have to be handled with tongs while wearing a gas mask...
index futures falling.
FReepers agree with Robert Reich:
3 Reasons Why The Wall Street Bailout Was A Failure
Timothy Geithners new book about the financial crisis, Stress Test, is basically an argument that the Wall Street bailout succeeded.
Thats hardly surprising, given that Geithner was in charge of the bailout when Treasury Secretary (as was his predecessor at Treasury, Hank Paulson), and so has an inherit interest in telling the public it succeeded.
Even so, the bailout clearly did succeed, if success means avoiding another Great Depression.
But another Great Depression might have been avoided if the crisis had been handled differently for example, by allowing the bankruptcy laws to do what they were intended to do, and forcing the big Wall Street banks to reorganize under them.
In fact, the bailout was a colossal failure in several respects Geithner barely mentions in his book, or avoids completely:
1. Bigger Than Ever ...
... and no sane person on or off the Street now believes Washington will ever allow them to fail which means theyll continue to make big, risky bets because they know they cant fail. And theyll get even bigger because big depositors and lenders know theyll never fail and therefore demand lower interest rates than demanded from smaller banks.
2. No Wall Street executives have ever been prosecuted for what they did to the country ...
... which means even more rampant irresponsibility in executive suites as well as even deeper cynicism in the public about the political power of Wall Street.
3. The bailout helped the banks but did little or nothing for the tens of millions of Americans ....
... who lost billions of dollars in home equity and savings, and the millions more who lost their jobs. The toll was greatest on the poor and the middle class, who still havent recovered their losses, even though Wall Street has fully recovered (and then some). Nor have reforms been enacted that will help the middle class and the poor the next time Wall Street implodes.
So pardon me if I take issue with Tim Geithner. The bailout was a success in the narrowest terms. Seen more broadly it was a terrible failure.
Wed have done better had we forced the biggest Wall Street banks, including the giant insurer AIG, to reorganize under bankruptcy rather than bail them out.
This article originally appeared at RobertReich.org. Copyright 2014. Follow RobertReich.org on Twitter.
GUNDLACH: We Could Be On The Verge Of ‘One Of The Biggest Short-Covering Scrambles Of All Time’
Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive and chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital
DoubleLine Funds’ Jeffrey Gundlach warns that we may be on the edge of a big bond market rally that could see yields tanking.
“If we go down [more] on Treasury yields, we will see one of the biggest short-covering scrambles of all time, said Gundlach on Wednesday in San Diego. This quote is being reported by FA Mag’s Dan Jamieson from the Altegris Investments strategic investment conference.
Coming into 2014, almost no one predicted the 10-year Treasury yield would tumble to the levels we’re seeing today.
But bond fund manager Jeff Gundlach did.
During a public webcast on January 14 when the 10-year yield was at around 3.0% and when Wall Street said it would climb to 3.4%, Gundlach predicted that it could fall as low as 2.5% in the near-term.
Today, the 10-year yield fell through 2.5% and got as low as 2.4716%.
Gundlach isn’t the only one warning of a short squeeze in the bond market.
“10y short interest futures (CFTC) data showing a very crowded short,” said Stifel Nicolaus’ Dave Lutz. “The crowd is rarely right, and now the squeeze is on.”
Should things intensify, Gundlach’s already contrarian prediction may not have been contrarian enough.
If for some reason someone has to cover these shorts, you could actually see the low yields of 2012 get taken out,” said Gundlach.
Now an economic report on....... bees....
New Report Warns That Bees Are Still Collapsing At An Economically Unsustainable Rate
Fewer honeybees died over the winter that just ended than in previous ones, although bees are still dying at a rate that is not economically sustainable, according to a new federal report published Thursday.
The new survey, issued by the U.S Department of Agriculture and the Bee Informed Partnership, found that nationwide losses of managed honeybee populations from all causes was down to 23.2%, a close to 7% drop from the winter before when death rates were at 30.5%. Over the past eight years, beekepers have reported average winter losses of 29.6%
That’s still no reason to celebrate. Beekeepers say that they lose money each year that losses exceed 18.9%, according to the USDA.
Honeybee die-offs have been blamed on a combination of factors, including pesticides, disease, parasites, poor nutrition, bad weather, and the stress of being trucked from orchard-to-orchard to pollinate different crops. Colony collapse disorder, a mysterious phenomenon in which bees vanish from their hives, may be triggered by one or a number of these pressures.
“Yearly fluctuations in the rate of losses like these only demonstrate how complicated the whole issue of honey bee heath has become,” Jeff Pettis, co-author of the survey and leader of the government’s bee research laboratory in Maryland.
The report comes on the heels of a Harvard study that found a strong link between the most widely used class of pesticides, neonicotinoids, and colony collapse disorder. Some scientists have dismissed the report, taking issue with the small sample size (only 18 colonies were tested) and noting that the pesticides used to treat the colonies were not administered to the bees in a way that would be found in nature.
Rather than targeting pesticides, the government report said one of the leading contributors to colony loss is the varroa mite, an Asian bee parasite that first arrived in United States in 1987.
“What is clear from all of our efforts is that varroa is a persistent and often unexpected problem,”Dennis vanEngelsdorp, director of the Bee Informed Partnership and an entomologist at the University of Maryland. “Every beekeeper needs to have an aggressive varroa management plan in place. Without one, they should not be surprised if they suffer large losses every other year or so.”
As ;Reuters notes, pesticide companies like Monsanto and Bayer pin the blame on mites, too, adding that “Monsanto-owned BeeLogics, a bee health company, is one of the collaborators in the partnership with USDA.”
The survey results are based on self-reported information from 7,200 beekeepers, who represent 21.7% of the country’s 2.6 million colonies.
Well that must be why the USDA ordered these
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DEPT OF AGRICULTURE ORDERS SUBMACHINE GUNS WITH 30 ROUND MAGAZINES
We're constantly hearing this party line about how tax dollars went to help wall street rich people get rich and skip off from having to atone for their sins. Somehow, the TARP, the Quantitive Easings, and the Taper were all pork fed to bloated pin-stripers. Here's the 'proof':
So a few days ago the Dow and S&P hit all time highs and now they're falling below 10 week averages. Go figure. In perspective we're still within bull market trend lines mapped out on this thread, but this morning's futures are downbeat and the news is all over:
You're Missing the Biggest Bull Market in the World - Joe Weisenthal, BI
Fear Is Back on Wall Street: Dow Falls 200 - Ben Rooney, CNNMoney
Without True Price Signals, Finance Lacks Meaning - Jeffrey Snider, RCMJ.C. Penney Company, Inc. Stock Soars 25% On Sales Jump ValueWalk - 2 hours ago J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE:JCP) shares skyrocketed more than 25% in after-hours trading Thursday after the company reported solid sales growth in the first quarter.Stung by weather, profit at Walmart drops 5% Boston Globe - 7 hours ago Walmart reported a disappointing quarter Thursday, with profit down and sales at its US stores essentially flat. The retailer joined a growing chorus of companies partly blaming the unusually harsh winter weather for performance.
Huge “beat” on housing starts but 96% of the March to April increase driven by multi-family starts
Miss on consumer confidence... 81.8 vs 84.5 est
--and both starts'n'permits came in great. So what we're getting is a lot of 'on-the-other-hand' stuff here...
Great for multi-family. Anemic for single family. Multi family percentage of total is highest in last 40 years.
The article seemed to rest on a meme that's going pandemic these days that says America's got too much inequality of incomes --this time the author also hangs his hat on the idea that we're losing our social mobility. Problem is that this is a key point, and he fails to support it with facts and we're expected to take his word for it.