Skip to comments.Arkansas Poll: Pryor 51, Cotton 40
Posted on 05/12/2014 7:24:42 AM PDT by wmap
A new poll of registered voters in Arkansas shows Democratic sentaor Mark Pryor leading his Republican challenger, Tom Cotton, by 11 points. Pryor receives 51 percent support,
(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...
unbelievable that pryor is up that much...
Why the sudden increase in Pryor’s fortunes? Did Cotton get caught at a cockfight or something?
Good Excuse for the DNC to avoid contributing to Pryor’s run.
Cotton will beat him like a drum.
These polls are nonsense.
This is BS. In my AR county I have never talked to anyone that will vote for Pryor.
If this is true ... then FU AR voters.
Surveyed a whopping 23% id’d (R)
So, I reckon Arkansas now loves Obamacare ( and the man who voted for it)?
NBC & Marist = GARBAGE
Cotton seems to be keeping a fairly low national profile and hasn’t been out rockin’ Boener’s nor McConnell’s boats.
It’s still early. Cotton is running a “clean” campaign. He needs to get a new campaign manager and hit Pryor on his record and set his own record straight. Pryor’s hitting below the belt and Cotton isn’t hitting back. But it’s still early
QUOTING 2008 OBAMA: "No. 1, let me just repeat, if youve got a health care plan that you like, you can keep it. All Im going to do is help you to lower the premiums on it. Youll still have choice of doctor. Repeated over and over ---- with the promise that every American family would be saving $2500.00 on healthcare costs.
Significantly, Obamba NEVER corrected lock-stepping Democrats, all reading from the same Democrat talking points, all of them repeating the same Democrat promises---over and over again.
LOCK-STEPPING PARTY LOYALTY NOT SEEN SINCE 1930-40's ERA EUROPE Obama And The Dems marched in lockstep. The persistent Dumbocrat drumbeat ---- in obeisance to Obama ---- kept ringing reassuringly in our ears: "If you like your plan, you can keep your plan."
Mark Pryor looks for Obamacare enrollees who've paid for insurance, who are actually insured, for millenials duped into paying for other people's h/care and for the "underserved"....who had no insurance before ACA took effect.
Betcha Harry Reid's name might evoke similar sentiments in Senate races.
PELOSI THE MAGIC VOTE-GETTER --- FOR REPUBLICANS Seems that invoking "Pelosi" was a vote-getter......for Republicans....(cackle).
National Journal reported Repub strategists had measured which messages were most effectively persuading voters to turn in their ballots.
<><> In Jolly's race, they turned to a messagedelivered across a variety of digital platforms and emailthat focused on urging Repubs to vote now or watch Democratic Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi move one step closer to reclaiming the speaker's gavel.<><>
Cotton needs to ask Pryor when Obama is coming by to campaign for him (snix).
Heard Cotton on F&F this morning. He is saying Pryor casted the deciding vote on Obamacare.
So many Democrat fund-raisers----so few campaign stops (cackle). And here's why.....Obama is near his all-time low approval ratings, and was labeled 'political poison' to the partys candidates.
Being tied to an unpopular president can be a millstone around an eager Democrat's neck. Democrats want some of the presidential pull, but Obama, himself, should get out of their way.....and stay the hell out of their districts.
PEW/USA TODAY POLL: THE GOP MIDTERM TSUNAMI COMETH Breitbart.com ^ | May 5,2014 | Wyntn Hall / FR Posted by Biggirl
Pew Research/USA Today poll shows Obamacare and the bleak jobs picture have coalesced to put Democrats in a weaker political position than they were before the historic GOP 2010 midterm tsunami that resulted in the largest defeat for a newly elected president in a midterm since 1922. (Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Cotton looks like he is 17. May work against him.
“This is BS. In my AR county I have never talked to anyone that will vote for Pryor.”
“I don’t understand how Nixon could have won. No one I know voted for him”.
You guys are whistling past the graveyard. The same state that kept sending Bill Clinton to office is going to keep Pryor. Sucks, but that’s Arkansas.
Poll details and data if anyone is interested.
The GOP with priebus is stuck on stupid.
Primary elections is May 20, with runoff on June 10,
if needed in any of the races.
That's true. Here are the numbers from the PDF:
As a point of reference here is some polling data from 2/2/14 published by TheCityWire.com in this article:
The poll was conducted on Feb. 12, 2014 by Little Rock-based Impact Management Group who polled 1,202 likely Arkansas voters. Here is a summary of their findings:
How they are registered
How they would vote for a generic candidate
Don't know 22
From the article:
A poll conducted this month shows that 43% of voters would vote for an unnamed, generic Republican candidate, while 35% would vote for the Democrat and 22% still have not made up their minds.The same poll asked respondents to identify the political party they are most closely affiliated with. In response, 39% said Democrat, while only 36% said Republican and 26% said independent.
Marist is dubious
He probably isn’t. That said, Cotton needs to do a better job of connecting Pryor with Obama. If I were running Cotton’s campaign, every ad I ran would be hitting Pryor on Obamacare and the Dems gun control push last year and resulting ammo shortages, especially 22LR which everyone uses.
NBC poll gives Mark Pryor 11-point lead over Tom Cotton in race for U.S. Senate; Hutchinson leads Ross
Pryor also is getting the support of 32 percent of voters who disapprove of President Obamas job in Arkansas.
While Pryor leads the Senate general election contest in Arkansas, Republican Asa Hutchinson has a seven-point advantage in the states gubernatorial contest over Democrat Mike Ross, 49 percent to 42 percent.
The reason why both Pryor and Hutchinson are ahead in their statewide races: Both men are leading among independents Pryor has a seven-point edge over Cotton here (48 percent to 41 percent), and Hutchinson has a 15-point advantage (52 percent to 37 percent).
“These are competitive states as far as the general is concerned”
In addition, Pryor (with a 50 percent to 35 percent favorable/unfavorable rating) is viewed in a more positive light than Cotton is (38 percent to 39 percent) among voters.
The poll in Arkansas was done May 4, before President Obama’s visit to Arkansas
46% of Arkansans have a favorable opinion of Pryor while 32% have an unfavorable view of him. Nine percent have never heard of Pryor, and 14% are unsure how to rate him. Among registered voters statewide, 50% think well of Pryor while 35% have a lesser view of him. 11% are unsure how to rate him.
47% of white Evangelical Christians like Pryor while 38% have a negative opinion of him. Five percent have never heard of Pryor, and 10% are unsure how to rate him.
When it comes to Cotton, 37% of Arkansas residents have an unfavorableview of him, 34% have a positive opinion of him. 15% have never heard of Cotton, and 14% are unsure how to rate him. Among registered voters, 39% have a negative view of Cotton. 38% like him, and 9% have never heard of him. 14% are unsure how to rate him. Among white Evangelical Christians, 48% have a positive opinion of Cotton. 31% have a negative one, and 8% have never heard of Cotton. 13% are unsure how to rate him.
Party ID. A partisan divide exists. Most Democrats 89% back Pryor while only 5% are for Cotton. Among Republicans, most 85% support Cotton compared with 10% for Pryor. Among independents, Pryor edges Cotton, 48% to 41%.
Gender. There is a gender gap. A majority of women voters 55% are for Pryor while 35% are behind Cotton. Men divide. 46% of male voters support Pryor while the same proportion 46% backs Cotton.
Race. While 85% of African American voters support Pryor, white voters divide. 46% of white voters support Pryor while the same proportion 46% are for Cotton.
White Evangelical Christians. Cotton leads Pryor, 58% to 36%, among registered voters who are white and describe themselves as Evangelical Christians. One percent supports another candidate, and 5% are undecided.
President Obama. Pryor overwhelmingly carries voters who approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, 86% to 9% for Cotton. Among voters who disapprove of the presidents performance in office, Cotton leads 61% to 32% for Pryor.
So far, Senator Pryor has staved off Cottons challenge, says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. Holding this seat is no easy task for a Democrat with President Obamas approval rating at 33% in the state.
Nearly Seven in Ten Say Nation is Off Course
68% of Arkansans say the nation is moving in the wrong direction. 27% believe it is on track. An additional 5% are unsure. Similar proportions of registered voters have these opinions. 69% believe the nation is off track. 27% say it is on course. Four percent are unsure.
Pryor may well win since he’s been the Senator since 2003. But AR has a
split gov. with all 4 CDs GOP, 1 of the 2 Senators a GOP, Gov & AG are Dems, LtGov
and SOS are GOP, GOP has advantage in both the state House and Senate. True they did
vote Obama and Biden in 2008.
Both comments bear repeating, but not excusing lethargy on the part of Conservatives.
Read up on the issues, go to meetings, try to convince and persuade and not to harangue,
and get active.
Here are some statements on the issues by Tom Cotton.
‘Our taxes are too high and too complicated. The individual and corporate tax codes distort the financial decisions of individuals and businesses, leading them to base spending, investment, and saving on tax considerations, not economic benefits. I will work in Congress to reduce our taxes and simplify our tax code to return power from Washington to taxpayers.
‘Beware of politicians who promise to create jobs, because only businesses and entrepreneursnot politicianscan create jobs. What government can and should do is ensure a free-market, job-friendly environment where businesses and entrepreneurs have the certainty and incentives to invest, innovate, grow, and hire.
In Congress, I will support pro-growth policies that give the private sector the confidence and certainty to start hiring again. Job creators need a tax code that is permanent, fair, and simple with low rates. They need federal bureaucrats to get off their backs and stand by their sides. And they need a federal government that doesnt spend, borrow, and inflate its way to bankruptcy.
‘I strongly oppose all forms of a cap and trade schemes, which are nothing more than a massive new tax on energy. Cap and trade would handcuff our economy and make America less competitive in the world, because emerging markets like China and India will never adopt such a destructive tax. Manufacturers will move to those countries, which will also cost American jobs. I will fight tirelessly against cap and trade, both in Congress and against the EPAs abusive use of the Clean Air Act to implement cap and trade unilaterally.’
Pryor is doing what Obama did and democrats are good doing, is negative ads early to get your opponents negative numbers up. He better wake up.
McCain won Arkansas in 2008 by a 59-39 margin, not Obama.
Agreed. Although I do think Cotton is going to win, as this state has been trending GOP, he’s been allowing Pryor to control the debate and turn this into a contest where it shouldn’t be.
McCain won Arkansas in 2008 by a 59-39 margin, not Obama.
Yep, my bad. I misread some data I was looking at.
Thanks for the correction..
As 2012 showed, crying “weighting” can mean nothing. But, due to the demographics being way off from the apparent voting population, I think this time it is legitimate.
But, we should be careful. In 2012 every poll was skewed Dem. Well, that’s because the electorate was more Dem that year...
U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton weds over weekend
March 17, 2014
Republican Senate hopeful and U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton has married his girlfriend during a small ceremony over the weekend.
Cotton’s Senate campaign said the freshman lawmaker married Anna Peckham, an attorney from Virginia, at a small wedding ceremony with family and close friends on Saturday. The two are currently on a honeymoon during the congressional recess, campaign spokesman David Ray said.
Ray declined to say where the wedding was held or where the couple was honeymooning.
The two have been engaged since late 2013. Ray said they plan to live and raise their family in Arkansas.
Cotton was elected in 2012 to represent south Arkansas’ 4th Congressional District. He announced in August he would challenge Democratic U.S. Sen Mark Pryor.
Bingo! Anyone that thinks Obamacare is going to be pave the way to victory in November is just being simplistic. Didn’t work in 2012 and isn’t going to work now. You have to actually go and work for it.
I see this scornful rejection of polls all the time by conservatives.
Indeed there are some lousy polls but when registered voters are canvassed the results tend to be reasonably close.
I hope to goodness Cotton can win this thing and have sent money to help him do so.
The sad fact is that Romney was right about ONE thing: you got pretty close to half the electorate who would rather get something, anything, for free than even think about pulling their own weight.
I agree but it is an important part. Pryor has plenty on his voting record to throw out there. Cotton needs a campaign manager that knows the ropes.
It’s registered voters, not likely voters, which skews results toward Democrats. With that in mind, even with favorable conditions, Pryor is barely above 50%, not a great place for an incumbent to be.
Pretty much. I even get the gut feeling the Dems could add to their Senate majority and even take back the House despite the polls. The GOP finds itself on the brink of civil war and can only articulate what they are against, not what they stand for. I would be all for an electoral rout of the GOPe to purge their elitists, but the nation would not survive further one party control by the communists.
This is troubling. We can blow it off as biased all we want. But this lines up with the NY Times poll that showed Pryor 10 points up.
Hard to grasp. Arkansas through out Blanche Lincoln a few years ago and nothing has changed with Obamacare for the better, only worse.
I don’t know Arkansas but maybe Pryor is one of those old southern Dem dynasty names like Landrieu which allows them to stay in power despite a rightward shifting electorate.
A “registered voter” poll is worthless.
a key vote for Obamacare approval.. and he would vote for it again.. his is in lock step with the radical leftist agenda of this administration and doesn’t even question their blatant lies to the American people he is an enabler to the liar in chief and will not hold him accountable... The good people of Arkansas should open up their eyes and hold the radicals to account.