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Arkansas Poll: Pryor 51, Cotton 40
Weekly Standard ^ | May 12, 2014 | MICHAEL WARREN

Posted on 05/12/2014 7:24:42 AM PDT by wmap

A new poll of registered voters in Arkansas shows Democratic sentaor Mark Pryor leading his Republican challenger, Tom Cotton, by 11 points. Pryor receives 51 percent support,

(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Arkansas
KEYWORDS: 113th; 2014midterms; ar2014

1 posted on 05/12/2014 7:24:42 AM PDT by wmap
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To: wmap

unbelievable that pryor is up that much...


2 posted on 05/12/2014 7:30:41 AM PDT by ghost of stonewall jackson
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To: wmap

Why the sudden increase in Pryor’s fortunes? Did Cotton get caught at a cockfight or something?


3 posted on 05/12/2014 7:30:51 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: wmap

Good Excuse for the DNC to avoid contributing to Pryor’s run.

Cotton will beat him like a drum.

These polls are nonsense.


4 posted on 05/12/2014 7:30:53 AM PDT by G Larry (Which of Obama's policies do you think I'd support if he were white?)
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To: G Larry

This is BS. In my AR county I have never talked to anyone that will vote for Pryor.


5 posted on 05/12/2014 7:33:09 AM PDT by mosaicwolf (Strength and Honor)
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To: ghost of stonewall jackson

If this is true ... then FU AR voters.


6 posted on 05/12/2014 7:33:21 AM PDT by bassmaner (Hey commies: I am a white male, and I am guilty of NOTHING! Sell your 'white guilt' elsewhere.)
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To: wmap

Surveyed a whopping 23% id’d (R)


7 posted on 05/12/2014 7:34:58 AM PDT by Kahuna
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To: wmap

So, I reckon Arkansas now loves Obamacare ( and the man who voted for it)?


8 posted on 05/12/2014 7:35:38 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (If at first you don't succeed, put it out for beta test.)
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To: wmap

NBC & Marist = GARBAGE


9 posted on 05/12/2014 7:36:08 AM PDT by ZULU (https://www.facebook.com/freejustina)
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To: Vigilanteman

Cotton seems to be keeping a fairly low national profile and hasn’t been out rockin’ Boener’s nor McConnell’s boats.


10 posted on 05/12/2014 7:38:48 AM PDT by Paladin2
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To: mosaicwolf

It’s still early. Cotton is running a “clean” campaign. He needs to get a new campaign manager and hit Pryor on his record and set his own record straight. Pryor’s hitting below the belt and Cotton isn’t hitting back. But it’s still early


11 posted on 05/12/2014 7:42:15 AM PDT by BipolarBob
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To: All
STROLL DOWN MEMORY LANE As far back as 2008, at the presidential debate in Nashville, Democrat candidate Obama advanced his signature healthcare plan---ultimately enacted, by an historic straight Democrat party-line vote, into the "Affordable Care Act"

QUOTING 2008 OBAMA: "No. 1, let me just repeat, if you’ve got a health care plan that you like, you can keep it. All I’m going to do is help you to lower the premiums on it. You’ll still have choice of doctor.” Repeated over and over ---- with the promise that every American family would be saving $2500.00 on healthcare costs.

Significantly, Obamba NEVER corrected lock-stepping Democrats, all reading from the same Democrat talking points, all of them repeating the same Democrat promises---over and over again.

LOCK-STEPPING PARTY LOYALTY NOT SEEN SINCE 1930-40's ERA EUROPE Obama And The Dems marched in lockstep. The persistent Dumbocrat drumbeat ---- in obeisance to Obama ---- kept ringing reassuringly in our ears: "If you like your plan, you can keep your plan."

==================================================

Mark Pryor looks for Obamacare enrollees who've paid for insurance, who are actually insured, for millenials duped into paying for other people's h/care and for the "underserved"....who had no insurance before ACA took effect.

====================================================

Betcha Harry Reid's name might evoke similar sentiments in Senate races.

PELOSI THE MAGIC VOTE-GETTER --- FOR REPUBLICANS Seems that invoking "Pelosi" was a vote-getter......for Republicans....(cackle).

National Journal reported Repub strategists had measured which messages were most effectively persuading voters to turn in their ballots.

<><> In Jolly's race, they turned to a message—delivered across a variety of digital platforms and email—that focused on urging Repubs to vote now or watch Democratic Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi move one step closer to reclaiming the speaker's gavel.<><>

12 posted on 05/12/2014 7:42:20 AM PDT by Liz
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To: All

Cotton needs to ask Pryor when Obama is coming by to campaign for him (snix).


13 posted on 05/12/2014 7:44:12 AM PDT by Liz
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To: Liz

Heard Cotton on F&F this morning. He is saying Pryor casted the deciding vote on Obamacare.


14 posted on 05/12/2014 7:45:28 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz ("Heck of a reset there, Hillary"S)
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To: ghost of stonewall jackson
Some of these numbers may be due to a lack of voter familiarity with Cotton. The Upper South/Border states of Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, and West Virginia have not shifted to the GOP to the extent that the Lower South states, Texas, and Oklahoma have. There is still a sizable body of Anglo-Southern Democrats in these states. Lackluster economic news and Obama’s ineffectual responses to Putin's challenges to U.S./NATO dominance won't help Prior. However, Cotton better not stumble on social issues with the sort of statements that doomed the GOP contenders for Senate seats in Indiana and Missouri two years ago.
15 posted on 05/12/2014 7:46:40 AM PDT by Wallace T.
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To: All
News reports say Obama flew off to headline several fund-raisers.

So many Democrat fund-raisers----so few campaign stops (cackle). And here's why.....Obama is near his all-time low approval ratings, and was labeled 'political poison' to the party’s candidates.

Being tied to an unpopular president can be a millstone around an eager Democrat's neck. Democrats want some of the presidential pull, but Obama, himself, should get out of their way.....and stay the hell out of their districts.

===========================================

PEW/USA TODAY POLL: THE GOP MIDTERM TSUNAMI COMETH Breitbart.com ^ | May 5,2014 | Wyntn Hall / FR Posted by Biggirl

Pew Research/USA Today poll shows Obamacare and the bleak jobs picture have coalesced to put Democrats in a weaker political position than they were before the historic GOP 2010 midterm tsunami that resulted in the largest defeat for a newly elected president in a midterm since 1922. (Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...

16 posted on 05/12/2014 7:48:18 AM PDT by Liz
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To: wmap

Cotton looks like he is 17. May work against him.


17 posted on 05/12/2014 7:55:54 AM PDT by montag813
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To: mosaicwolf

“This is BS. In my AR county I have never talked to anyone that will vote for Pryor.”

“I don’t understand how Nixon could have won. No one I know voted for him”.

You guys are whistling past the graveyard. The same state that kept sending Bill Clinton to office is going to keep Pryor. Sucks, but that’s Arkansas.


18 posted on 05/12/2014 7:56:16 AM PDT by DesScorp
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To: wmap

Poll details and data if anyone is interested.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/512-arkansas-pryor-leads-for-u-s-senate-hutchinson-ahead-for-governor/


19 posted on 05/12/2014 7:57:09 AM PDT by deport
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To: ghost of stonewall jackson

The GOP with priebus is stuck on stupid.


20 posted on 05/12/2014 7:58:34 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: All
MARK PRYOR RECEPIENT OF COVETED "OBAMA RUBBER STAMP AWARD" Pryor doesn’t waver; said he would vote for Obamacare all over again. That may be why he recently got the coveted title of Obama’s Rubber Stamp. But a few quotes and some sideline analysis never carry quite the same impact as hearing things directly from the horse’s mouth. So let’s go to the video, where Pryor is asked if, knowing what he knows now, he would still have voted for Obamacare in 2009. Take it away, Senator.VIDEO at hotair.com web site.
21 posted on 05/12/2014 7:59:28 AM PDT by Liz
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To: deport

Primary elections is May 20, with runoff on June 10,
if needed in any of the races.


22 posted on 05/12/2014 8:00:00 AM PDT by deport
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To: Kahuna
Surveyed a whopping 23% id’d (R)

That's true. Here are the numbers from the PDF:

Democrat 30
Republican 23
Independent 46

As a point of reference here is some polling data from 2/2/14 published by TheCityWire.com in this article:

Poll numbers confirm ‘Independent’ streak among Arkansas voters

The poll was conducted on Feb. 12, 2014 by Little Rock-based Impact Management Group who polled 1,202 likely Arkansas voters. Here is a summary of their findings:

How they are registered

Democrat 39
Republican 36
Independent 26

How they would vote for a generic candidate

Democrat 35
Republican 43
Don't know 22

From the article:

A poll conducted this month shows that 43% of voters would vote for an unnamed, generic Republican candidate, while 35% would vote for the Democrat and 22% still have not made up their minds.The same poll asked respondents to identify the political party they are most closely affiliated with. In response, 39% said Democrat, while only 36% said Republican and 26% said independent.

23 posted on 05/12/2014 8:02:30 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: wmap

Marist is dubious


24 posted on 05/12/2014 8:12:53 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Now there ARE 1,000,000 regrets - but it may be too late.)
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To: Vigilanteman

He probably isn’t. That said, Cotton needs to do a better job of connecting Pryor with Obama. If I were running Cotton’s campaign, every ad I ran would be hitting Pryor on Obamacare and the Dems gun control push last year and resulting ammo shortages, especially 22LR which everyone uses.


25 posted on 05/12/2014 8:14:46 AM PDT by VOR78
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To: wmap

NBC poll gives Mark Pryor 11-point lead over Tom Cotton in race for U.S. Senate; Hutchinson leads Ross

Pryor also is getting the support of 32 percent of voters who disapprove of President Obama’s job in Arkansas.

While Pryor leads the Senate general election contest in Arkansas, Republican Asa Hutchinson has a seven-point advantage in the state’s gubernatorial contest over Democrat Mike Ross, 49 percent to 42 percent.

The reason why both Pryor and Hutchinson are ahead in their statewide races: Both men are leading among independents – Pryor has a seven-point edge over Cotton here (48 percent to 41 percent), and Hutchinson has a 15-point advantage (52 percent to 37 percent).

“These are competitive states as far as the general is concerned”

In addition, Pryor (with a 50 percent to 35 percent favorable/unfavorable rating) is viewed in a more positive light than Cotton is (38 percent to 39 percent) among voters.

The poll in Arkansas was done May 4, before President Obama’s visit to Arkansas

http://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2014/05/12/nbc-poll-gives-mark-pryor-11-point-lead-over-tom-cotton-in-race-for-us-senate-hutchinson-leads-ross

********

46% of Arkansans have a favorable opinion of Pryor while 32% have an unfavorable view of him. Nine percent have never heard of Pryor, and 14% are unsure how to rate him. Among registered voters statewide, 50% think well of Pryor while 35% have a lesser view of him. 11% are unsure how to rate him.

47% of white Evangelical Christians like Pryor while 38% have a negative opinion of him. Five percent have never heard of Pryor, and 10% are unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Cotton, 37% of Arkansas residents have an unfavorableview of him, 34% have a positive opinion of him. 15% have never heard of Cotton, and 14% are unsure how to rate him. Among registered voters, 39% have a negative view of Cotton. 38% like him, and 9% have never heard of him. 14% are unsure how to rate him. Among white Evangelical Christians, 48% have a positive opinion of Cotton. 31% have a negative one, and 8% have never heard of Cotton. 13% are unsure how to rate him.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/512-arkansas-pryor-leads-for-u-s-senate-hutchinson-ahead-for-governor/#sthash.Lj8kffTM.dpuf

Key points:
•Party ID. A partisan divide exists. Most Democrats — 89% — back Pryor while only 5% are for Cotton. Among Republicans, most — 85% — support Cotton compared with 10% for Pryor. Among independents, Pryor edges Cotton, 48% to 41%.
•Gender. There is a gender gap. A majority of women voters — 55% — are for Pryor while 35% are behind Cotton. Men divide. 46% of male voters support Pryor while the same proportion — 46% — backs Cotton.
•Race. While 85% of African American voters support Pryor, white voters divide. 46% of white voters support Pryor while the same proportion — 46% — are for Cotton.
•White Evangelical Christians. Cotton leads Pryor, 58% to 36%, among registered voters who are white and describe themselves as Evangelical Christians. One percent supports another candidate, and 5% are undecided.
•President Obama. Pryor overwhelmingly carries voters who approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, 86% to 9% for Cotton. Among voters who disapprove of the president’s performance in office, Cotton leads 61% to 32% for Pryor.

“So far, Senator Pryor has staved off Cotton’s challenge,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Holding this seat is no easy task for a Democrat with President Obama’s approval rating at 33% in the state.”

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/ARPolls/AR140430/Complete%20May%202014%20Arkansas%20NBC%20News__Marist%20Poll%20Release%20and%20Tables.pdf

Nearly Seven in Ten Say Nation is Off Course

68% of Arkansans say the nation is moving in the wrong direction. 27% believe it is on track. An additional 5% are unsure. Similar proportions of registered voters have these opinions. 69% believe the nation is off track. 27% say it is on course. Four percent are unsure.


26 posted on 05/12/2014 8:16:41 AM PDT by kcvl
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To: DesScorp

Pryor may well win since he’s been the Senator since 2003. But AR has a
split gov. with all 4 CDs GOP, 1 of the 2 Senators a GOP, Gov & AG are Dems, LtGov
and SOS are GOP, GOP has advantage in both the state House and Senate. True they did
vote Obama and Biden in 2008.


27 posted on 05/12/2014 8:20:24 AM PDT by deport
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To: Kahuna
‘NBC & Marist = GARBAGE’
‘Surveyed a whopping 23% id’d (R)’

Both comments bear repeating, but not excusing lethargy on the part of Conservatives.
Read up on the issues, go to meetings, try to convince and persuade and not to harangue,
and get active.
Here are some statements on the issues by Tom Cotton.
‘Our taxes are too high and too complicated. The individual and corporate tax codes distort the financial decisions of individuals and businesses, leading them to base spending, investment, and saving on tax considerations, not economic benefits. I will work in Congress to reduce our taxes and simplify our tax code to return power from Washington to taxpayers.
http://cotton.house.gov/issues/tax-reform
‘Beware of politicians who promise to create jobs, because only businesses and entrepreneurs—not politicians—can create jobs. What government can and should do is ensure a free-market, job-friendly environment where businesses and entrepreneurs have the certainty and incentives to invest, innovate, grow, and hire.

In Congress, I will support pro-growth policies that give the private sector the confidence and certainty to start hiring again. Job creators need a tax code that is permanent, fair, and simple with low rates. They need federal bureaucrats to get off their backs and stand by their sides. And they need a federal government that doesn’t spend, borrow, and inflate its way to bankruptcy.
http://cotton.house.gov/issues/economy-and-jobs
‘I strongly oppose all forms of a “cap and trade” schemes, which are nothing more than a massive new tax on energy. Cap and trade would handcuff our economy and make America less competitive in the world, because emerging markets like China and India will never adopt such a destructive tax. Manufacturers will move to those countries, which will also cost American jobs. I will fight tirelessly against cap and trade, both in Congress and against the EPA’s abusive use of the Clean Air Act to implement cap and trade unilaterally.’
http://cotton.house.gov/issues/energy
TWB

28 posted on 05/12/2014 8:24:15 AM PDT by TWhiteBear (Sarah Palin, the Flame of the North)
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To: BipolarBob

Pryor is doing what Obama did and democrats are good doing, is negative ads early to get your opponents negative numbers up. He better wake up.


29 posted on 05/12/2014 8:26:57 AM PDT by navysealdad (http://drdavehouseoffun.com/)
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To: deport

McCain won Arkansas in 2008 by a 59-39 margin, not Obama.


30 posted on 05/12/2014 8:27:28 AM PDT by VOR78
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To: navysealdad

Agreed. Although I do think Cotton is going to win, as this state has been trending GOP, he’s been allowing Pryor to control the debate and turn this into a contest where it shouldn’t be.


31 posted on 05/12/2014 8:30:35 AM PDT by VOR78
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To: VOR78

McCain won Arkansas in 2008 by a 59-39 margin, not Obama.

******************

Yep, my bad. I misread some data I was looking at.

Thanks for the correction..


32 posted on 05/12/2014 8:32:31 AM PDT by deport
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To: InterceptPoint; All

As 2012 showed, crying “weighting” can mean nothing. But, due to the demographics being way off from the apparent voting population, I think this time it is legitimate.

But, we should be careful. In 2012 every poll was skewed Dem. Well, that’s because the electorate was more Dem that year...


33 posted on 05/12/2014 8:32:51 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: wmap

U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton weds over weekend

March 17, 2014

Republican Senate hopeful and U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton has married his girlfriend during a small ceremony over the weekend.

Cotton’s Senate campaign said the freshman lawmaker married Anna Peckham, an attorney from Virginia, at a small wedding ceremony with family and close friends on Saturday. The two are currently on a honeymoon during the congressional recess, campaign spokesman David Ray said.

Ray declined to say where the wedding was held or where the couple was honeymooning.

The two have been engaged since late 2013. Ray said they plan to live and raise their family in Arkansas.

Cotton was elected in 2012 to represent south Arkansas’ 4th Congressional District. He announced in August he would challenge Democratic U.S. Sen Mark Pryor.

http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2014/mar/17/arkansas-us-rep-tom-cotton-weds-over-weekend/


34 posted on 05/12/2014 8:33:57 AM PDT by kcvl
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To: DesScorp

Bingo! Anyone that thinks Obamacare is going to be pave the way to victory in November is just being simplistic. Didn’t work in 2012 and isn’t going to work now. You have to actually go and work for it.


35 posted on 05/12/2014 8:38:13 AM PDT by paul544
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To: DesScorp

I see this scornful rejection of polls all the time by conservatives.

Indeed there are some lousy polls but when registered voters are canvassed the results tend to be reasonably close.

I hope to goodness Cotton can win this thing and have sent money to help him do so.

The sad fact is that Romney was right about ONE thing: you got pretty close to half the electorate who would rather get something, anything, for free than even think about pulling their own weight.


36 posted on 05/12/2014 8:40:04 AM PDT by Fightin Whitey
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To: paul544
Anyone that thinks Obamacare is going to be pave the way to victory in November is just being simplistic.

I agree but it is an important part. Pryor has plenty on his voting record to throw out there. Cotton needs a campaign manager that knows the ropes.

37 posted on 05/12/2014 8:48:30 AM PDT by BipolarBob
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To: wmap

It’s registered voters, not likely voters, which skews results toward Democrats. With that in mind, even with favorable conditions, Pryor is barely above 50%, not a great place for an incumbent to be.


38 posted on 05/12/2014 8:50:17 AM PDT by kevkrom (I'm not an unreasonable man... well, actually, I am. But hear me out anyway.)
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To: paul544
"Bingo! Anyone that thinks Obamacare is going to be pave the way to victory in November is just being simplistic."

Pretty much. I even get the gut feeling the Dems could add to their Senate majority and even take back the House despite the polls. The GOP finds itself on the brink of civil war and can only articulate what they are against, not what they stand for. I would be all for an electoral rout of the GOPe to purge their elitists, but the nation would not survive further one party control by the communists.

39 posted on 05/12/2014 9:03:54 AM PDT by buckalfa (Tilting at Windmills)
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To: wmap

This is troubling. We can blow it off as biased all we want. But this lines up with the NY Times poll that showed Pryor 10 points up.

Hard to grasp. Arkansas through out Blanche Lincoln a few years ago and nothing has changed with Obamacare for the better, only worse.

I don’t know Arkansas but maybe Pryor is one of those old southern Dem dynasty names like Landrieu which allows them to stay in power despite a rightward shifting electorate.


40 posted on 05/12/2014 9:09:52 AM PDT by nhwingut (This tagline is for lease)
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To: wmap
Come ON, Arkansas!!!! What is UP???
41 posted on 05/12/2014 11:23:10 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: wmap

A “registered voter” poll is worthless.


42 posted on 05/12/2014 12:42:27 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: wmap

a key vote for Obamacare approval.. and he would vote for it again.. his is in lock step with the radical leftist agenda of this administration and doesn’t even question their blatant lies to the American people he is an enabler to the liar in chief and will not hold him accountable... The good people of Arkansas should open up their eyes and hold the radicals to account.


43 posted on 05/12/2014 1:58:22 PM PDT by Typical_Whitey (The fundamental transformation resistance is futile you will be assimilated.)
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