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If Economic Cycle Theorists Are Correct, 2015 To 2020 Will Be Pure Hell For The United States
The Economic Collapse ^ | May 12, 2014 | Michael Snyder

Posted on 05/13/2014 5:24:42 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Does the economy move in predictable waves, cycles or patterns? There are many economists that believe that it does, and if their projections are correct, the rest of this decade is going to be pure hell for the United States. Many mainstream economists want nothing to do with economic cycle theorists, but it should be noted that economic cycle theories have enabled some analysts to correctly predict the timing of recessions, stock market peaks and stock market crashes over the past couple of decades. Of course none of the theories discussed below is perfect, but it is very interesting to note that all of them seem to indicate that the U.S. economy is about to enter a major downturn. So will the period of 2015 to 2020 turn out to be pure hell for the United States? We will just have to wait and see.

One of the most prominent economic cycle theories is known as "the Kondratieff wave". It was developed by a Russian economist named Nikolai Kondratiev, and as Wikipedia has noted, his economic theories got him into so much trouble with the Russian government that he was eventually executed because of them...

The Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev (also written Kondratieff) was the first to bring these observations to international attention in his book The Major Economic Cycles (1925) alongside other works written in the same decade. Two Dutch economists, Jacob van Gelderen and Samuel de Wolff, had previously argued for the existence of 50 to 60 year cycles in 1913. However, the work of de Wolff and van Gelderen has only recently been translated from Dutch to reach a wider audience.

Kondratiev's ideas were not supported by the Soviet government. Subsequently he was sent to the gulag and was executed in 1938.

In 1939, Joseph Schumpeter suggested naming the cycles "Kondratieff waves" in his honor.

In recent years, there has been a resurgence of interest in the Kondratieff wave. The following is an excerpt from an article by Christopher Quigley that discussed how this theory works...

Kondratiev's analysis described how international capitalism had gone through many such "great depressions" and as such were a normal part of the international mercantile credit system. The long term business cycles that he identified through meticulous research are now called "Kondratieff" cycles or "K" waves.

The K wave is a 60 year cycle (+/- a year or so) with internal phases that are sometimes characterized as seasons: spring, summer, autumn and winter:

• Spring phase: a new factor of production, good economic times, rising inflation
• Summer: hubristic 'peak' war followed by societal doubts and double digit inflation
•Autumn: the financial fix of inflation leads to a credit boom which creates a false plateau of prosperity that ends in a speculative bubble
•Winter: excess capacity worked off by massive debt repudiation, commodity deflation & economic depression.
A 'trough' war breaks psychology of doom.

Increasingly economic academia has come to realize the brilliant insight of Nikolai Kondratiev and accordingly there have been many reports, articles, theses and books written on the subject of this "cyclical" phenomenon. An influential essay, written by Professor W. Thompson of Indiana University, has indicated that K waves have influenced world technological development since the 900's. His thesis states that "modern" economic development commenced in 930AD in the Sung province of China and he propounds that since this date there have been 18 K waves lasting on average 60 years.

So what does the Kondratieff wave theory suggest is coming next for us?

Well, according to work done by Professor W. Thompson of Indiana University, we are heading into an economic depression that should last until about the year 2020...

Based on Professor Thompson's analysis long K cycles have nearly a thousand years of supporting evidence. If we accept the fact that most winters in K cycles last 20 years (as outlined in the chart above) this would indicate that we are about halfway through the Kondratieff winter that commenced in the year 2000. Thus in all probability we will be moving from a "recession" to a "depression" phase in the cycle about the year 2013 and it should last until approximately 2017-2020.

But of course the Kondratieff wave is far from the only economic cycle theory that indicates that we are heading for an economic depression.

The economic cycle theories of author Harry Dent also predict that we are on the verge of massive economic problems. He mainly focuses on demographics, and the fact that our population is rapidly getting older is a major issue for him. The following is an excerpt from a Business Insider article that summarizes the major points that Dent makes in his new book...

•Young people cause inflation because they "cost everything and produce nothing." But young people eventually "begin to pay off when they enter the workforce and become productive new workers (supply) and higher-spending consumers (demand)."
•Unfortunately, the U.S. reached its demographic "peak spending" from 2003-2007 and is headed for the "demographic cliff." Germany, England, Switzerland are all headed there too. Then China will be the first emerging market to fall off the cliff, albeit in a few decades. The world is getting older.
•The U.S. stock market will crash. "Our best long-term and intermediate cycles suggest another slowdown and stock crash accelerating between very early 2014 and early 2015, and possibly lasting well into 2015 or even 2016. The worst economic trends due to demographics will hit between 2014 and 2019. The U.S. economy is likely to suffer a minor or major crash by early 2015 and another between late 2017 and late 2019 or early 2020 at the latest."
•"The everyday consumer never came out of the last recession." The rich are the ones feeling great and spending money, as asset prices (not wages) are aided by monetary stimulus.
•The U.S. and Europe are headed in the same direction as Japan, a country still in a "coma economy precisely because it never let its debt bubble deleverage," Dent argues. "The only way we will not follow in Japan's footsteps is if the Federal Reserve stops printing new money."
•"The reality is stark, when dyers start to outweigh buyers, the market changes." It all comes down to an aging population, Dent writes. "Fewer spenders, borrowers, and investors will be around to participate in the next boom."
•The U.S. has a crazy amount of debt and "economists and politicians have acted like we can just wave a magic wand of endless monetary injections and bailouts and get over what they see as a short-term crisis." But the problem, Dent says, is long-term and structural — demographics.
•Businesses can "dominate the years to come" by focusing on cash and cash flow, being "lean and mean," deferring major capital expenditures, selling nonstrategic real estate, and firing weak employees now.
•The big four challenges in the years ahead will be 1) private and public debt 2) health care and retirement entitlements 3) authoritarian governance around the globe and 4) environmental pollution that threatens the global economy.

According to Dent, "You need to prepare for that crisis, which will occur between 2014 and 2023, with the worst likely starting in 2014 and continuing off and on into late 2019."

So just like the Kondratieff wave, Dent's work indicates that we are going to experience a major economic crisis by the end of this decade.

Another economic cycle theory that people are paying more attention to these days is the relationship between sun spot cycles and the stock market. It turns out that market peaks often line up very closely with peaks in sun spot activity. This is a theory that was first popularized by an English economist named William Stanley Jevons.

Sun spot activity appears to have peaked in early 2014 and is projected to decline for the rest of the decade. If historical trends hold up, that is a very troubling sign for the stock market.

And of course there are many, many other economic cycle theories that seem to indicate that trouble is ahead for the United States as well. The following is a summary of some of them from an article by GE Christenson and Taki Tsaklanos...

Charles Nenner Research (source) Stocks should peak in mid-2013 and fall until about 2020. Similarly, bonds should peak in the summer of 2013 and fall thereafter for 20 years. He bases his conclusions entirely on cycle research. He expects the Dow to fall to around 5,000 by 2018 – 2020.

Kress Cycles (Clif Droke) (source) The major 120 year cycle plus all minor cycles trend down into late 2014. The stock market should decline hard into late 2014.

Elliott Wave (Robert Prechter) (source) He believes that the stock market has peaked and has entered a generational bear-market. He anticipates a crash low in the market around 2016 – 2017.

Market Energy Waves (source) He sees a 36 year cycle in stock markets that is peaking in mid-2013 and will cycle down for 2013 – 2016. “… the controlling energy wave is scheduled to flip back to negative on July 19 of this year.” Equity markets should drop 25 – 50%.

Armstrong Economics (source) His economic confidence model projects a peak in confidence in August 2013, a bottom in September 2014, and another peak in October 2015. The decline into January 2020 should be severe. He expects a world-wide crash and contraction in economies from 2015 – 2020.

Cycles per Charles Hugh Smith (source) He discusses four long-term cycles that bottom in the 2010 – 2020 period. They are: Credit expansion/contraction cycle, Price inflation/wage cycle, Generational cycle, and Peak oil extraction cycle.

So does history repeat itself?

Well, it should be disconcerting to a lot of people that 2014 is turning out to be eerily similar to 2007. But we never learned the lessons that we should have learned from the last major economic crisis, and most Americans are way too apathetic to notice that we are making many of the very same mistakes all over again.

And in recent months there have been a whole host of indications that the next major economic downturn is just around the corner. For example, just this week we learned that manufacturing job openings have declined for four months in a row. For many more indicators like this, please see my previous article entitled "17 Facts To Show To Anyone That Believes That The U.S. Economy Is Just Fine".

Let's hope that all of the economic cycle theories discussed above are wrong this time, but we would be quite foolish to ignore their warnings.

Everything indicates that a great economic storm is rapidly approaching, and we should use this time of relative calm to get prepared while we still can.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Government
KEYWORDS: collapse; economiccollapse; economy; recession; russia
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Comments?
1 posted on 05/13/2014 5:24:42 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

what to do?


2 posted on 05/13/2014 5:29:37 PM PDT by dontreadthis
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

....and of course the mediawhores will blame the new republican president for ruining the miracle Obama economy


3 posted on 05/13/2014 5:30:37 PM PDT by wny
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To: wny

U.S. Economy Contracted In First Quarter, Latest Figures Show (Revised figures)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3155564/posts


4 posted on 05/13/2014 5:31:48 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Jonathan Cahn’s book “The Harbinger” points to a 7 year cycle of judgement:

Sept 2001 - 9/11,
Sept 2008 - financial crash,
2015 - look for a bad September


5 posted on 05/13/2014 5:33:54 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy (Fegelein! Fegelein! Fegelein!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I think the whole system is broken, with the growing debt and more and more people dependent on the government. We are spending too much more than we are taking in. It would not take much for this country to see some really rough times in our future.

All that needs to happen is something like the EBT cards stop working for a couple months. I believe all hell would break loose.

6 posted on 05/13/2014 5:34:15 PM PDT by DeepInTheHeartOfTexas
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

yikes


7 posted on 05/13/2014 5:34:21 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Obamacare: You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
more proof of the catastrophe that is global warming climate change disruption.
8 posted on 05/13/2014 5:35:34 PM PDT by Optimist
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To: wny

This is really depressing. I blame every President for the debt. So dang stupid to pay for things by borrowing. Of course the Presidents won’t suffer....any of them living and dead.


9 posted on 05/13/2014 5:35:59 PM PDT by napscoordinator (Governor Scott Walker 2016 for the future of the country!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Another economic cycle theory that people are paying more attention to these days is the relationship between sun spot cycles and the stock market. It turns out that market peaks often line up very closely with peaks in sun spot activity.

Hm.

10 posted on 05/13/2014 5:37:45 PM PDT by workerbee (The President of the United States is DOMESTIC ENEMY #1!)
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To: dontreadthis

What to do? Run in circles, scream and shout.


11 posted on 05/13/2014 5:38:27 PM PDT by Cboldt
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
From the 'Liberal' point of view.


12 posted on 05/13/2014 5:40:13 PM PDT by Theoria (End Socialism : No more GOP and Dem candidates)
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To: Cboldt

if it helps


13 posted on 05/13/2014 5:43:29 PM PDT by dontreadthis
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

These are lightweight analyses of large scale non-linear systems experiencing complex feedback and feedforward inputs/outputs.

Steve Keen is one of the few economists who has recognized this and is finishing a simulation package which will be far more accurate in producing time histories of the multiple “cycles” interior to the economic “system” as it exists.

This work started with Fisher in the 1930s, was upgraded theoretically by Minsky in the 1980s, and is now being fully developed by Keen and others, but mainly him - he’s the farthest ahead.

The rest of this crap belongs in comic books.


14 posted on 05/13/2014 5:49:29 PM PDT by Regulator
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

At least Michelle and Barry will have the wonderful memories of their endless vacations and golf-around-the-world game to comfort them as they suffer through the depression they brought upon us.


15 posted on 05/13/2014 5:54:45 PM PDT by liberalh8ter (The only difference between flash mob 'urban yutes' and U.S. politicians is the hoodies.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I have heard of this. We shall see


16 posted on 05/13/2014 6:10:52 PM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

As opposed to the last six years, which have seen unprecedented growth and prosperity under the greatest American President.


17 posted on 05/13/2014 6:12:37 PM PDT by Hardastarboard (Please excuse the potholes in this tagline. Social programs have to take priority in our funding.)
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To: Hardastarboard

Indeed. It will be a shame when these good times end.


18 posted on 05/13/2014 6:13:14 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy (Fegelein! Fegelein! Fegelein!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

DH and I were already thinking 2015. Prophecy. So no surprise.


19 posted on 05/13/2014 6:17:19 PM PDT by momincombatboots (Back to West by G-d Virginia.)
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To: Cboldt
If it makes you feel better.


20 posted on 05/13/2014 6:21:49 PM PDT by uglybiker (nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-BATMAN!)
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To: DeepInTheHeartOfTexas

We all know we are on “Float”. It is over. The hyper inflation will starve millions in this country. There will be public hangings of officials from local to state to federal,in my opinion. It will be starving children that will set off armed populaces. The military will scatter — they are infested with women and deviates. Get ready. Soon. The Chinese or Russians will walk in.


21 posted on 05/13/2014 6:21:50 PM PDT by SADMILLIE
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Goes back to my prediction months ago.

The media will select a Republican (Christie is my thought) and put him in the White House to oversee the economic collapse of America.

That way they can blame it all on a Republican and move the country further left, and into all out collapse/anarchy.


22 posted on 05/13/2014 6:27:31 PM PDT by airborne (My heroes don't wear capes - My heroes wear dog tags!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Not if Cruz is elected in 2016. He will reduce taxes, open oil drilling and free the pipple.


23 posted on 05/13/2014 6:27:45 PM PDT by Defiant (Let the Tea Party win, and we will declare peace on the American people and go home.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

2015 To 2020 Will Be Pure Hell For The United States “Comments?”

then what the heck have been the last 7 years been? They have been pure hell too for a fair percentage of middle class. Not directed at you Vet, directed at these Economists.


24 posted on 05/13/2014 6:31:41 PM PDT by roofgoat
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To: SADMILLIE

Get a grip.


25 posted on 05/13/2014 6:33:35 PM PDT by workerbee (The President of the United States is DOMESTIC ENEMY #1!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Right in the middle of Hillary’s first term... of course, Bush’s fault.


26 posted on 05/13/2014 6:33:41 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
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To: ScottinVA

41, 43 or both?


27 posted on 05/13/2014 6:34:45 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: SADMILLIE; DeepInTheHeartOfTexas; workerbee

28 posted on 05/13/2014 6:37:19 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Most likely 43.. he’s been blamed for everything this side of the demise of the dinosaurs.


29 posted on 05/13/2014 6:39:44 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

BFL


30 posted on 05/13/2014 6:50:48 PM PDT by CommieCutter ("For an idea to be too simplistic, it must first be proven wrong" --Thomas Sowell)
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To: ScottinVA

This side of? I’m pretty sure I saw a story in 2006 blaming him for that...


31 posted on 05/13/2014 6:52:53 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

There is a poorly understood link between human behavior and peak sunspot activity that has been known for close to a century. I did a little research on this years ago. Soviet-controlled agitators were directed to plan and time massive protests to hopefully take advantage of the general level of high excitability and ease of fomenting revolutionary sentiment that was believed to exist at such times, with some historical documentation to back up such an assumption.


32 posted on 05/13/2014 7:07:04 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: napscoordinator

No presidents will not suffer. Remember, congress passes the budget, in whatever form it takes. Dims have been buying votes with the treasury since FDR. Hence the debt.


33 posted on 05/13/2014 7:14:45 PM PDT by Nuc 1.1 (Nuc 1 Liberals aren't Patriots. Remember 1789!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

As if Economics happens regardless of economic decisions made by the Powers to be.

It is the intentional ignorance of mathematical laws that dooms us. Never before has it been so blatantly dishonest, and fraudulent. And the collapse will have nothing to do with any natural cycle.


34 posted on 05/13/2014 7:31:33 PM PDT by Revel
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t know about hell buti don’t see things getting better.


35 posted on 05/13/2014 7:32:43 PM PDT by sheana
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Also, if Economic Cycle Theorists Are Incorrect, 2015 To 2020 Will Be Pure Hell For The United States.


36 posted on 05/13/2014 7:35:21 PM PDT by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: Defiant
He will reduce taxes, open oil drilling and free the pipple.

Freeing the pipple should be #1. /s ;)

37 posted on 05/13/2014 7:37:16 PM PDT by Jane Long (While Marxists continue the fundamental transformation of the USA, progressive RINOs assist!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The biggest threat to the US Economy: The United States Government.

Didn't need a whole article to state that simple truth.

38 posted on 05/13/2014 7:39:54 PM PDT by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Prechter and others have been predicting this for 25+ years!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_supercycle

Take this advice with great circumspection. They tried throwing cold water on what ended up being a phenomenal period to be in stocks during the mid 80’s and 90’s!


39 posted on 05/13/2014 7:58:46 PM PDT by 4FreeSpeach
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Bump for later


40 posted on 05/13/2014 8:00:30 PM PDT by Senator_Blutarski
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

That statement by Yamamoto reminded me of a symposium that was held in Europe during the 1990’s.

The symposium was attended by high-ranking military officers from a number of countries, including the United States and Russia.

During a break in the meetings, there was an informal gathering of military officers, sipping their drinks and engaging in small talk.

One of the American military officers asked a Russian general if the Soviet Union had ever considered invading the United States during the Cold War.

The Russian general laughed and said, “Oh no! You people have too many guns over there!”


41 posted on 05/13/2014 8:20:14 PM PDT by july4thfreedomfoundation (I don't want to feel "safe." I want to feel FREE!)
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To: SADMILLIE
"women and deviates" lumped together....nice....so I'll use one too..."men and other rapists".....

the female hatred on this forum is just astounding, a few days after Mothers Day even...

42 posted on 05/13/2014 10:31:44 PM PDT by cherry
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To: cherry

You’ve noticed that too?


43 posted on 05/13/2014 11:38:30 PM PDT by crazycatlady
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To: dontreadthis
what to do?

Que the music... nothing gives security more that a big @ss block of GOLD. Operators are standing by so call now, and the next 50 callers will receive a .1 gram block of pure silver, just for calling.

44 posted on 05/14/2014 4:47:35 AM PDT by 2001convSVT (Going Galt as fast as I can.)
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To: Defiant
I agree, President Cruz, would put us on the right path to recovery. He can't turn this ship around overnight but with a Tea Party Congress (Gowdy for Speaker!) We could be in full recovery by 2019.
45 posted on 05/14/2014 4:52:18 AM PDT by 2001convSVT (Going Galt as fast as I can.)
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To: 2001convSVT

Gowdy would be destroyed by the MSM and thus become ineffective.

We are better off where he is.


46 posted on 05/14/2014 4:56:07 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... History is a process, not an event)
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To: bert
I can still wish for it. He has the stones to say what needs to be said and he is a fiscal conservative.
47 posted on 05/14/2014 4:58:57 AM PDT by 2001convSVT (Going Galt as fast as I can.)
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To: 2001convSVT

He is a great guy.

Some how I recently tuned to one of those true crime episodes where they reconstruct the crime. A young Gowdy was the DA or assistant DA and he was boring in hard.

He not only knows what needs to be done but has deep experience in doing just that.

I wish he’d fix his hair


48 posted on 05/14/2014 5:06:07 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... History is a process, not an event)
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To: wny
....and of course the mediawhores will blame the new republican president for ruining the miracle Obama economy

Boy, are YOU an optimist.

I do not foresee another Republican president in my lifetime, what with universal voter fraud, and the introduction of 30+ million illegal aliens.

49 posted on 05/14/2014 5:08:57 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Early 2009 to 7/21/2013 - RIP my little girl Cathy. You were the best cat ever. You will be missed.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Ping


50 posted on 05/14/2014 7:14:46 AM PDT by Timocrat (Ingnorantia non excusat)
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