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No Landslide for the GOP
Townhall ^ | 05/16/2014 | Eric Erickson

Posted on 05/16/2014 9:19:32 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Public Opinion Strategies, a Washington political shop, produced a chart last week that got much of the political press buzzing. The chart compared polling questions during incumbent friendly elections and, as they put it, "shellackings." Their data suggests 2014 will be a shellacking for the Democrats. But, contrary to what many say, it will not be a landslide at the federal level.

In October 1994, when the Republicans rode a wave of anti-Democrat sentiment to Washington, 30 percent more Americans thought the nation was on the wrong track than the right track. In 2006, when the Democrats came back, 27 percent more Americans thought the country was on the wrong track than the right. In 2010, it was a 29 percent difference. In April of 2014, 39 percent more people think the nation is on the wrong track than the right track.

In 1994, 1 percent more Americans thought President Clinton was doing a good job than a bad job. In 2006, 18 percent more Americans thought President Bush was doing a bad job than a good job. In 2010, President Obama's approval deficit was at 5 percent. Now it is at an 8-point deficit.

Among white voters, who will be a key demographic in 2014, President Clinton had a 9 percent deficit in approval in 1994. Bush had a 15 percent deficit in 2006. President Obama had a 19 percent deficit in 2010. He now has a 27 percent deficit. In other words, 27 percent more Americans think President Obama is doing a bad job than a good job.

In 1994, the President's party lost 53 seats at the federal level. In 2006, that number was 30. In 2010, that number was 63. In 2014 there will be no landslide.

There will not be a landslide because many of the gains the Republicans could make were made in 2010. They won the House of Representatives solidly.

Republicans will most likely capture the Senate in 2014, but most likely by less than a dozen seats. That could arguably be considered a landslide given that only 33 seats are in play. This, by the way, is where white voter dissatisfaction with the President comes into play. Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies notes that "there are a number of key Senate races where the percentage of white voters could be in the high-70s or higher." Those states include Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana and New Hampshire, among others.

But gerrymandering has made a House landslide largely impossible at this point. Most all the Democrats who remain are in safely Democrat seats. The Republicans are in safe Republican seats. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post recently noted there are only nine seats held by Democrats, where Mitt Romney won the popular vote in those congressional districts.

The real landslide for the Republicans could come at the state and local level. In 2010, the Republicans saw a historic shift in their direction in state, county and municipal elections around the country. Some estimates from 2010 were that the sweep of the GOP at all levels had not been seen since the late 1800s.

Seats at the state and local level are again in play. Gubernatorial seats won by the GOP in 2010 are in play again and Republicans are pretty confident they will hold them. Democrats are not as confident. A number of state legislative seats around the country that went for the Republicans in 2010 flipped back to the Democrats in 2012. Those seats could very easily flip back to the Republicans now.

Then there are states like Georgia and Texas. The Democrats have been waiting for those states to change racially and ethnically. In the past year, they thought 2014 would be the year those states finally turn purple. But with a disastrous gubernatorial candidate in Texas and a dysfunctional state party in Georgia, the Democrats may wait longer.

There will be no landslide at the federal level in 2014. But in the states may just see a seismic shift to the GOP.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2014; gop; landslide; republicans

1 posted on 05/16/2014 9:19:32 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

What does Dick Morris say?


2 posted on 05/16/2014 9:23:23 AM PDT by MNDude
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To: MNDude

RE: What does Dick Morris say?

I think after his 2012 disaster, he’s out of the prediction business....


3 posted on 05/16/2014 9:24:27 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (If at first you don't succeed, put it out for beta test.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Republicans will most likely capture the Senate in 2014, but most likely by less than a dozen seats.


This optimistic prediction does not match the rest of the article.


4 posted on 05/16/2014 9:27:48 AM PDT by txhurl (Trump/Cruz '16, and everybody else for Cabinet members.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Sayyyyy, aren’t these the same people who said the TEA party was dead?


5 posted on 05/16/2014 9:28:01 AM PDT by null and void (When was the last time you heard anyone say: "It's a free country"?)
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To: MNDude

lol That there will be a GOP landslide so I guess the Dims take the House.


6 posted on 05/16/2014 9:29:15 AM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: SeekAndFind

Erick may be right, at least when it comes to the House, but there is a possibility of replacing Harkin, Levin, Landrieu, Pryor, Shaheen, Merkley, Rockefeller, Walsh (MT), Udall (CO), Johnson, Begich, Hagen, and maybe even Franken and Warner, with republicans (of whatever stripe).

Even half of these is seven seats.

In addition, replacing Johannes with Sasse, Coburn with Shannon, Cochran with McDaniel and Chambliss with whoever will be an improvement.

And if McConnell and Graham are replaced by anybody else (even a democrat), so much the better.

In any case, one way or the other, the US Senate will be a more conservative body, which is the goal, one election cycle at a time!

Landslide at the federal level, maybe not, but significant change just the same.


7 posted on 05/16/2014 9:30:44 AM PDT by cotton1706 (ThisRepublic.net)
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To: SeekAndFind
Republicans will most likely capture the Senate in 2014, but most likely by less than a dozen seats.

The Republicans could come out of this election with close to a +12 advantage in the Senate, but it wouldn't be a shellacking? What on earth would be?

8 posted on 05/16/2014 9:31:24 AM PDT by dead (I've got my eye out for Mullah Omar.)
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To: txhurl

That’s what I was thinking. I guess Erick thinks a landslide would mean the Pubbies capturing more than a dozen seats. I’ll take what we can get...capturing the Senate - period - by any number!


9 posted on 05/16/2014 9:31:51 AM PDT by Jane Long (While Marxists continue the fundamental transformation of the USA, progressive RINOs assist!)
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To: SeekAndFind
There will be no landslide at the federal level in 2014. But in the states may just see a seismic shift to the GOP.

Which bodes well for an Article V convention...

10 posted on 05/16/2014 9:33:01 AM PDT by okie01
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To: txhurl; All
the GOP/Establishment; hopes to tamp-down any
opposition (ie, more seats) to pResident O'Muslim.

11 posted on 05/16/2014 9:33:42 AM PDT by skinkinthegrass (The end move in politics is always to pick up a gun..0'Bathhouse/"Rustler" Reid? :-)
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To: SeekAndFind

Republicans will most likely capture the Senate in 2014, but most likely by [winning] less than a dozen seats.

The above sentence makes sense if you place the word “winning” where I have done so above.

I estimate R wins in Senate races at 7-9 currently.


12 posted on 05/16/2014 9:33:46 AM PDT by SaxxonWoods (....Let It Burn...)
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To: null and void

I don’t recall Erick Erickson saying the TP is dead. Did he? Or, did Townhall? Just wondering. Thanks.


13 posted on 05/16/2014 9:34:10 AM PDT by Jane Long (While Marxists continue the fundamental transformation of the USA, progressive RINOs assist!)
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To: cotton1706

RE: Erick may be right, at least when it comes to the House, but there is a possibility of replacing Harkin, Levin, Landrieu, Pryor,

http://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2014/05/12/nbc-poll-gives-mark-pryor-11-point-lead-over-tom-cotton-in-race-for-us-senate-hutchinson-leads-ross

NBC poll gives Mark Pryor 11-point lead over Tom Cotton in race for U.S. Senate


14 posted on 05/16/2014 9:35:43 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (If at first you don't succeed, put it out for beta test.)
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To: Jane Long

Perhaps I over generalized.


15 posted on 05/16/2014 9:36:00 AM PDT by null and void (When was the last time you heard anyone say: "It's a free country"?)
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To: SeekAndFind

Every time Boehner brings up amnesty, the Republicans lose a million votes.* By election day, even the House will go democrat.

* Poll of 1023 likely voters, Oak Grove Cemetery, Chicago, IL. Accuracy is +/- 3%.


16 posted on 05/16/2014 9:37:21 AM PDT by oldbill
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To: skinkinthegrass; Jane Long

Has Erick gone GOPe on us all of a sudden?


17 posted on 05/16/2014 9:41:13 AM PDT by txhurl (Trump/Cruz '16, and everybody else for Cabinet members.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The American electorate is bipolar (collectively and probably singularly to a large degree). They vote to avoid their past mistakes by electing more mistakes. The times when they get it right are by sheer happenstance.

The pubbies may prevail the fall but it ain’t because people are coming to their senses.


18 posted on 05/16/2014 9:41:35 AM PDT by rockrr (Everything is different now...)
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To: SeekAndFind

AR, SC, KY and AZ....what is up with these voters? Pryor should be DOWN by 11 pts.


19 posted on 05/16/2014 9:42:15 AM PDT by Jane Long (While Marxists continue the fundamental transformation of the USA, progressive RINOs assist!)
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To: txhurl

I don’t think so (hope not!).

Maybe he’s just frustrated that our leads aren’t more than they are. We should be giving every dim a good shellacking in all but the bluest of states.


20 posted on 05/16/2014 9:44:08 AM PDT by Jane Long (While Marxists continue the fundamental transformation of the USA, progressive RINOs assist!)
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To: SeekAndFind

If the Republicans take over a majority of State governments, what is to stop them from pushing to repeal the 17th amendment?


21 posted on 05/16/2014 9:49:51 AM PDT by Cowboy Bob (They are called "Liberals" because the word "parasite" was already taken.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Yeah, I’ve seen that poll in Arkansas. That particular race has been all over the place so I don’t know what to believe.

I think that one will be close either way, because Pryor is a skilled political hand and his dad was popular in the state. Things may change before November.


22 posted on 05/16/2014 9:53:25 AM PDT by cotton1706 (ThisRepublic.net)
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To: SeekAndFind; All

States Calling For Secession Was A Protest Tactic That Has Nothing to do with “race” Gets Blown Off
The leadership of the so called political opposition (Republican) will wonder why as they lose a crucial election because of their inability to stand on principles.Let alone demonstrate they are politically dysfunctional, unwilling to work with or even recognize legitimate concerns from what they call the tea party but in reality are the Reagan voters of 2014 and unable to congeal into a unified working political unit. They did not learn from 2012 and continue to blow off 2014.

Because they refused to interpret and defend a pronouncement of secession by individual states which was designed:as a tactic emphasizing protest. With the reasons for doing so citing; The dispair, distrust,and disgust with an administration which has adandoned any pretence of following its constitional restrictions. Ruling through lies deception and corruption with what is best described as a soft tyranny.

Whether or not that root cause may or may not have appeared in any text of the draft of the many individual states resolutions supporting secession. That reasoning should have been acknowledged even when voting the measure down at individual caucus and convention meets..Because those citations (reasons) were brought up when a discussion of such a secesession resolution took form.. Certainly not racism Even when you don’t agree with this tactic it was your duty if you were in a position to put down this matter do not to allow it it to be defined by the democrats as racist.

Instead too many some even in talk radio allowed the controled media once again define the terms . Many, because they work within or seek approval from what they consider “peers” who are incapable of objectivity are unrelenting in the socialist direction they advocate, and refuse to recognize that fact.

. Instead of dancing to the tune driven by the media counter bringing up this little matter, never even covered by the media :

Use what the democrats did at their 2012 convention..

Suggesting there is no wonder why the regime and the democrats lie so much, was because they had discarded God, thus the 10 commandments and sin..

Instead the GOP ruling class commited a most grevious sin. Allowing the political opposition namely the democrat party through its propaganda arm known as the media decribe the secede measure as frivolous and racist. But secession was a protest which had nothing to do with racism. It was a legitimate expression of (snip)
excerpted from
http://www.theusmat.com


23 posted on 05/16/2014 9:59:01 AM PDT by mosesdapoet (Serious contribution pause.Please continue onto meaningless venting no one reads.)
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To: okie01
:There will be no landslide at the federal level in 2014. But in the states may just see a seismic shift to the GOP. Which bodes well for an Article V convention... :"

I agree. Article V is the only way to restore the Republic and individual liberty. I have voted straight Republican since Reagan and for the first time it's unlikely I will support the Republican party at the national level. First, if I feel this way there are likely millions more that feel the same. The Republicans are not going to take the senate and wouldn't do anything meaningful if they did. I am becoming more convinced every day that we have a unified one party system at the federal level. I will remain open minded for now and may change my mind as election day approaches but unless I see RESULTS from the republicans it's unlikely I will support them.

I want to see indictments on Benghazi and the IRS scandal. The congress has the power to take individuals into custody for criminal contempt. The house needs to slap the cuffs on Lois Lerner. Let her sit in a cell for a while and watch those gums start flapping. Then we need a grand jury for the senators involved in this scandal. These people need to be charged with the crimes they have committed and prosecuted.

That's my rant.

No results, no support for me.

24 posted on 05/16/2014 10:02:00 AM PDT by precisionshootist
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To: SeekAndFind

I’ve been thinking for a long time that 2014 won’t be as rosy as the GOP expects.

Hell, they’ve declared war on the conservative wing of the base and are rushing to embrace Leftist positions so as to not be called racists—What’s there to vote for if you’re a conservative?


25 posted on 05/16/2014 10:10:38 AM PDT by Arm_Bears (Shoot cops that shoot dogs.)
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To: Arm_Bears
I’ve been thinking for a long time that 2014 won’t be as rosy as the GOP expects.

I said when Dingy Harry changed the Senate Rules that he must know that they won't lose the Senate, likely because they have the fraud machine in place.

26 posted on 05/16/2014 10:58:11 AM PDT by itsahoot (Voting for a Progressive RINO is the same as voting for any other Tyrant.)
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To: MNDude
What does Dick Morris say?

Mmmmmmm! Dr. Scholls! With just a piquant hint of Absorbine, Jr.


27 posted on 05/16/2014 11:00:01 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: oldbill
Every time Boehner brings up amnesty, the Republicans lose a million votes.*

He brings it up, gets slapped down in a humiliating way when voters explode in outrage, and then hides for a couple of months before trying again. He's either a irrational, illegal immigrants are his top issue, or he's been bought (not necessarily with money) and is just doing what he's told. In any of these cases, he ought to be removed from his position.

We should not have a man who isn't rational, a man who can be bought, or one who places the needs of non-citizens over the voters to hold the top position of power in the house. Is there a fourth alternative here that I'm missing?

28 posted on 05/16/2014 11:03:58 AM PDT by pepsi_junkie (Who is John Galt?)
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To: pepsi_junkie

bump


29 posted on 05/16/2014 11:04:44 AM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans!)
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To: SeekAndFind
No Landslide for the GOP DemocRat-lite.
30 posted on 05/16/2014 11:09:19 AM PDT by deadrock (I am someone else.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Dick Morris like all the other pundits forgot to take into account fraud and general dissatisfaction with the Republican challenger. Too many stayed home out of protest and too many dead rose up to get to the polls.


31 posted on 05/16/2014 11:12:04 AM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: SeekAndFind

More attempts to discourage us.


32 posted on 05/16/2014 11:53:31 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

But from Redstate?


33 posted on 05/16/2014 9:19:22 PM PDT by txhurl (Trump/Cruz '16, and everybody else for Cabinet members.)
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