Skip to comments.Why the 2014 Senate Races Matter So Much
Posted on 05/21/2014 11:53:32 AM PDT by centurion316
Yesterday I laid out some scenarios for the 2014 Senate races. At President Obama's current job approval rating, Democrats would likely suffer substantial losses in the upper chamber. On the other hand, if the president were to improve his standing, and if Republican candidates implode in some races, the GOP could break even or even lose a seat or two.
But aside from bragging rights, 2014 is a sideshow for the following two years. Obama is a lame duck, and the GOP already has blocking power with the House. A Republican majority in the Senate could provide added leverage by forcing Obama to use his veto, and it could force vulnerable Democrats to cast tough votes. But where it really matters -- where it could make a huge difference -- is in the next round of Senate elections.
Given the playing field that year, Republican losses are at the very least probable in 2016. In fact, they are likely. So if the GOP blows it this year, and if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2016, he or she could have a sizable -- perhaps even filibuster-proof -- majority. Moreover, if the GOP doesnt win a decent-size majority this year, it stands a good chance of losing it in 2016 if Democrats have a good year.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Impeachment? Ha! Based on Obama's current list of crimes, proceedings should have been and would have been started already but no one in the House has the gonads to try. Even with a Senate majority, conviction is a pipe dream.
With greater and greater unconstitutional, unelected, and unaccountable "Administrative State" powers, Obama's a pretty active "lame duck."
This IS THE most important election in our lifetime. This election matters so much!
Where have I heard that before?
I was a bit perturbed by the outcomes of last nights primaries especially when it came to Kentucky. I’m not naive enough to think that Bevin (one of my donation targets this cycle) would overcome the power and money of a McConnell.
I was more perturbed by the comments of some of our FReepers who are ready to throw in the towel, who are so short-sighted as to say they would be sending money to a Democrat candidate to help defeat McConnell or even voting for same. Come on people, we’re not even close to the shooting war.
We need to keep the Dems from being able to secure another seat on the USSC. Yes, even that Supreme Court. Making it worse wont solve the problem but aiming for more people of similar or like minds will keep a 5/4 court from becoming a 4/5 court. I appreciate our zeal but I don’t have an appreciation for ignorance or malcontent blatherisms that were spewing forth here last night.
We must take a longer view. Out political field doesn’t get changed or improved in 60 minute episodes.
Yeah, they want to kill the Tea Party and any challenges this year so they won’t have to defend all the worthless moderates in 2016:
Lee (UT) - 2016 - 100% (Average) - 100% (Heritage) - 100% (CFG) - 100% (ACU) - 100% (FreedomWorks)
Paul (KY) - 2016 - 97% (Average) - 96% (Heritage) - 97% (CFG) - 96% (ACU) - 100% (FreedomWorks)
Rubio (FL) - 2016 - 92% (Average) - 87% (Heritage) - 91% (CFG) - 96% (ACU) - 95% (FreedomWorks)
Crapo (ID) - 2016 - 89% (Average) - 79% (Heritage) - 92% (CFG) - 88% (ACU) - 95% (FreedomWorks)
Coburn (OK) - 2016 - 88% (Average) - 81% (Heritage) - 93% (CFG) - 100% (ACU) - 76% (FreedomWorks)
Johnson (WI) - 2016 - 87% (Average) - 89% (Heritage) - 87% (CFG) - 96% (ACU) - 77% (FreedomWorks)
Grassley (IA) - 2016 - 86% (Average) - 82% (Heritage) - 86% (CFG) - 88% (ACU) - 86% (FreedomWorks)
Toomey (PA) - 2016 - 85% (Average) - 76% (Heritage) - 93% (CFG) - 80% (ACU) - 91% (FreedomWorks)
Vitter (LA) - 2016 - 81% (Average) - 75% (Heritage) - 78% (CFG) - 79% (ACU) - 91% (FreedomWorks)
Shelby (AL) - 2016 - 76% (Average) - 76% (Heritage) - 82% (CFG) - 76% (ACU) - 68% (FreedomWorks)
Coats (IN) - 2016 - 73% (Average) - 70% (Heritage) - 75% (CFG) - 83% (ACU) - 65% (FreedomWorks)
Thune (SD) - 2016 - 73% (Average) - 65% (Heritage) - 80% (CFG) - 88% (ACU) - 59% (FreedomWorks)
Moran (KS) - 2016 - 72% (Average) - 66% (Heritage) - 75% (CFG) - 80% (ACU) - 67% (FreedomWorks)
Burr (NC) - 2016 - 70% (Average) - 62% (Heritage) - 67% (CFG) - 84% (ACU) - 67% (FreedomWorks)
Boozman (AR) - 2016 - 69% (Average) - 71% (Heritage) - 70% (CFG) - 80% (ACU) - 55% (FreedomWorks)
Ayotte (NH) - 2016 - 67% (Average) - 57% (Heritage) - 79% (CFG) - 68% (ACU) - 64% (FreedomWorks)
Portman (OH) - 2016 - 64% (Average) - 57% (Heritage) - 71% (CFG) - 64% (ACU) - 64% (FreedomWorks)
Blunt (MO) - 2016 - 59% (Average) - 57% (Heritage) - 67% (CFG) - 71% (ACU) - 41% (FreedomWorks)
Kirk (IL) - 2016 - 55% (Average) - 44% (Heritage) - 74% (CFG) - 44% (ACU) - 59% (FreedomWorks)
Isakson (GA) - 2016 - 54% (Average) - 54% (Heritage) - 59% (CFG) - 54% (ACU) - 50% (FreedomWorks)
McCain (AZ) - 2016 - 54% (Average) - 43% (Heritage) - 71% (CFG) - 52% (ACU) - 48% (FreedomWorks)
Hoeven (ND) - 2016 - 51% (Average) - 44% (Heritage) - 58% (CFG) - 60% (ACU) - 41% (FreedomWorks)
Murkowski (AK) - 2016 - 41% (Average) - 36% (Heritage) - 52% (CFG) - 38% (ACU) - 36% (FreedomWorks)
I want McConnell to win the election especially if we get the Senate. However, there HAS to be a way to vote him out of Senate Majority Leader or even Minority Leader if that is what happens.
At this point, especially with McConnell as leader, I think it would be a waste if the GOPe gets the Senate in 2014. I can envision two years of “we have to work to get things done for the American people” and bending over backwards to avoid an Obama veto on anything at any cost.
Come on people, were not even close to the shooting war.
We are living in a version of Dr. Zivago, without the love story. Our politicians are not the problem. The electorate is the problem.
The only good a GOP majority would do is with regard to stalling judicial appointments. If there’s a SCOTUS vacancy they could keep Barry from filling it.
RINOs tend to be followers. With the Republicans in charge of the Senate, people like Cruz would exert their leadership skills and the RINOs would follow obediently.
This is what happened during the Reagan administration. Squishy RINOs grew some balls and rallied around Reagan. The RINOs would support Cruz or any other Republican who shows leadership.
Yes, there could be a way to beat him as Majority Leader but it would take an underground campaign of sorts in the Senate with lots of danger for those with cherry committee assignments in the balance. If the object of each Senator’s term wasn’t self-aggrandizement but more purely to do the right thing, a change of senate leadership would be easily accomplished and committee assignments wouldn’t matter a hill of beans.
In a just world, there’d be a senate rule allowing only a 2 year term for Majority Leader.
Screw the conventional wisdom...First of all, the GOP is not as at risk in 2016 as the article states...there are 10 Dem seats, and 24 GOP seats up...I think the GOP has a good chance of picking up 1-2 Dem seats, and there are about 5 GOP seats that could be deemed in play..and after 2 more years of Obamacare, and a crappy economy...the GOP will do OK...
last night, I listened to Reagan’s 1964 “A Time for Choosing” speech in its entirety. There wasn’t a defeatist sentence or word in it. Sounds like you’ve already surrendered.
I'm not sure what post you refer to, but I'll take your word for it.
My question to you: If our freedom depends on the outcome of elections, do we still live in a constitutional republic?
If the Precedent postpones an election then there will be a Constitutional crisis. The military could respond and step in to restore the Nation to it’s pre-Obama stability. Even then I doubt there would be much shooting and bomb-throwing unless it was to celebrate throwing-off the yoke of a 1/2 Black-Nationalist wannabee.
The left only knows how to make bombs and most generally abhors guns and ammo.
This country survived a Civil War, the 60s, the Carter presidency...you get the idea. We’ll survive the final two years of the Obama administration without breaking a sweat. Give the American people a little more credit.
In a just world, thered be a senate rule allowing only a 2 year term for Majority Leader.
You are so right. I would love to get rid of Boehner, McConnell, Pelosi and Reid. And replace them with two new Republicans and two new Democrats. It is ridiculous how long they stay in those positions. I mean except for Boehner, each one is in their 70’s....Enough!
“At this point, especially with McConnell as leader, I think it would be a waste if the GOPe gets the Senate in 2014. I can envision two years of we have to work to get things done for the American people and bending over backwards to avoid an Obama veto on anything at any cost.”
Your comment reminds me to ask this “Where’s McCain?” John has been very quiet lately.
You are as free as you make of yourself. Freedom is a place in my head that expands or diminishes over time.
One of these days I may need to make more room for RAM by running my mind’s anti-virus program and getting rid of useless people. It could be a bloody day in Texas. That day has not yet arrived.
Scary stuff huh?
“This country survived a Civil War, the 60s, the Carter presidency...you get the idea. Well survive the final two years of the Obama administration without breaking a sweat. Give the American people a little more credit.”
AMEN! We’ve made it this far on American Spirit, despite Obama!
Thanks for the insight. That was my gut feeling as well, but I’ve learned the hard way to pay attention to the guys who work the numbers. Still, the range of +2 to -5 is something that deserves attention.
Well said, although I expect that you will see some criticism slung your way. When I cast my first vote, the Democrats were the conservatives in my neck of the woods. That has changed completely, but it happened over a period of years.
He popped his head out on the VA. Like in his immortal Senate career he’s ever done anything to hold the VA bureaucrats accountable.
I agree that we should take a longer term view, but it might not be quite the long term view that you’re looking for.
There is only one party and that’s the uniparty, and the ‘rats and gop are it’s collaborating factions. So long term, there isn’t much difference between whether the ‘rats or gop wins this November, given that they’re operating to implement essentially the same agenda.
Our efforts should be toward minimizing the impact of the uniparty agenda on our lives. And that is not a strategy that necessarily involves electoral politics. It might involve migration. It might involve removing oneself from state control (e.g. Going Galt). And it might involve other actions. But one thing I’m certain it shouldn’t involve is spending time and resources electing people to political office because they have an R after their name.
The challenge will be to figure out how to cull the herd of those on the bottom of the list without them replaced by a Democrat who is worse and I think that is the scenario that is being painted in this article.
Ya just gotta vote for the gop! Ya just gotta!
The economy is not going to get any better..neither will the unemployment rate..overseas, the world is a mess..America is viewed as weak by both our enemies and friends..gas prices continue to creep up, as Keystone is again stalled. The IRS investigation will reveal more bad news for Dems...as will Benghazi...and most of all, Obamacare...all the bad stuff has been postponed..now they pay the piper..
last night, I listened to Reagans 1964 A Time for Choosing speech in its entirety. There wasnt a defeatist sentence or word in it. Sounds like youve already surrendered.
There is a time for everything,
and a season for every activity under the heavens:
a time to be born and a time to die,
a time to plant and a time to uproot,
a time to kill and a time to heal,
a time to tear down and a time to build,
a time to weep and a time to laugh,
a time to mourn and a time to dance,
a time to scatter stones and a time to gather them,
a time to embrace and a time to refrain from embracing,
a time to search and a time to give up,
a time to keep and a time to throw away,
a time to tear and a time to mend,
a time to be silent and a time to speak,
a time to love and a time to hate,
a time for war and a time for peace.
-—— Ecclesiastes 3
And add this: In mid-30’s Germany, the smart Jews were the ones that gave up everything and took a boat to England.
And the other side of the same coin is that a GOP majority of fewer that 60 (like-minded) can't get what it wants (passed), either.
When the GOP has a majority or a supermajority, it tends to pass MORE laws, and to futher increase the encroach of the federal government into personal matters. Big spenders, big borrowers, etc.
Until the GOP adopts a fairly radical agenda (ala Reagan, the government is the problem), they are more useful in the minority, in the Senate.
I see the real problem as international. I’m not seeing this as a USA thing. The entire world is coming apart at the seams in a way never before seen except in the middle of WWII. I think this will be much worse. I think it will be Ezekiel 39. One reason that is completely out of scope of this thread is the march of human technology and where it will put us in 20, 40 or 60 years.
This country survived a Civil War, the 60s, the Carter presidency...you get the idea. Well survive the final two years of the Obama administration without breaking a sweat. Give the American people a little more credit.
1. The american people do not have the character they have then.
2. Our problems are really international. The entire civilized world is about to pop.
But aside from bragging rights, 2014 is a sideshow for the following two years. Obama is a lame duck,
This NOT a normal, legal Presidency. This is a rogue criminal who rules by decree. If he isn’t impeached, the Constitution is dead - NO ONE will EVER follow it again. Its as simple as that.
Having SAID that, if you are one of the FEW SANE Republicans in Kentucky, HOLD YOUR NOSE AND VOTE FOR THIRD PARTY.
Mitch McConnell, like John Boehner, is Obama’s BEST friend in congress.
John McCain sticks out like a sore thumb on that list. Surely Arizona can field a more conservative candidate than that.
“We need to keep the Dems from being able to secure another seat on the USSC.”
Y’know, this is the same tired argument that we’ve been hearing for more than 20 years now. If we don’t show up and vote for those republicans, then by God, all forms of evil will befall us.
Happily, we already know what happens when the gop controls both houses of Congress, the presidency, and when most members of the ussc are appointed by gop presidents. We know for certain that it doesn’t result in elimination of infanticide, a balanced budget or balanced budget amendment to the constitution, nor does it mean the elimination of gun control, a reduction in government spending or an increase in our personal liberty. No. All those things are just too hard to do when the gop controls all of government. Amazingly, the gop agenda when in power is remarkably similar to the ‘rat agenda when they’re in power. Gosh, you could almost say that they act like.....a uniparty!
Oh and as for control of ussc appointments, I find it fascinating that people who presumably support a republican form of government spend so much time focusing on who gets to appoint members to it. While rarely if ever asking a more basic question of why 9 unelected politicians who are completely isolated from accountability given their lifetime appointments should hold the balance of political power? Did we really give up the monarchy in the 18th century, or did we decide that we liked it so much that we should have 9 monarchs instead of merely one?
In closing, I would argue that indeed our political field doesn’t change in 60 minutes. And it doesn’t change at all so long as we continue to follow the same failed strategies.
Arizona could field a more conservative candidate, but McCain would spend uncounted millions attacking him, and the AZ GOP would assume before the primary that anyone with a competent conservative record would be squashed like a bug. The GOP in AZ would rally around McCain, and I suspect Palin would support McCain again. I voted for the democrat last time, but that bastard is in office until he dies. And maybe for a term or two after he dies...
The problem is lack of just LEADERSHIP and it derives from a lack of VISION. Unfortunately, there is little of the Founding Fathers vision and international leadership is so uniformly bad that whatever idea is transmitted by the newest technology (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat et al) is grasped and elevated as the latest answer to the void of human spirit. We’ve been warned in so many ways that this would happen.
If a strong just leader doesn’t step forward soon with the correct vision then I may fall in line with the ‘it’s over’ crowd and simply live for the day when my term on this planet is ended.
Strong people I have worked for have a solid vision of what is right and just. Strong leaders like President Reagan don’t make excuses for failures of policy. And they, as did he, explained to the people of the US and the rest of the world why what we were doing as a lighthouse was to expand freedom and opportunity.
The Barack Obama’s, Vlad Putins, and other dark figures of the age are so lacking in inner strength thru God our Father, there is no hope they will be able to rally a world to stability and reasonable contentment. So, yes, the problem is an international problem but it could be solved by a strong US President that exudes REAL hope and REAL change and not the ersatz Socialist ideals that have been so discredited so often since Marx started making toys of the Russian people.
Each of us has to make his own decisions, and I respect yours. But mine is to fight and resist as long as I have the strength to do so.
I think that you are rationalizing a very bad idea. The the political world, it’s always better to be in charge than it is to be in the minority. If you happen to be in the minority then you try to make the best of a bad situation. I’m sure that the Democrats will be more than happy to take you up on an offer of surrender.
And your strategy? You seem to be accepting of only the Constitution that appeals to you? Did I understand that correctly? We can do without a Supreme Court?
I think the Republicans in Washington love being the minority party.
All the perks, none of the responsibility.
If a strong just leader doesnt step forward soon with the correct vision then I may fall in line with the its over crowd and simply live for the day when my term on this planet is ended.
Anyone who proposes what really needs to be done can’t be elected. It means any “strong leader” will come by some other means. It makes me think of guys like Hitler.
This is why I say this will not end well.
Bob Michel loved it.
What we need is a US version of Nigel Farage.
So too a lot of people on this forum, apparently.
Likewise, I respect yours. FWIW, I’m fighting the fight on a different front.
Thanks for the repartee this afternoon. Gotta go. My turn to make dinner and in my Father’s world I’d be mocked and called names for even suggesting I make it. Times they are a changin’
I agree with your post. I’ll be 67 in Dec. We moved back to the U.S. from Europe 3 years ago where we had been for about 25 years. Every summer we came back to the states we saw significant changes in our home country - changes not for the better. We have reached critical mass as a nation and there is no turning back. Perhaps the pace of the slide can be slowed a little but there is no turning it around. Traditional values and morality are no longer valued in our nation and are actually seen as the problem. We are godless and loving it. We are now going to be show the folly of that thinking and it will not be pretty - the same as many nations before us.
Oh, I agree with that. But when the GOP is in charge, it increases the size of government. When ity is out of power, it opposes increases in the size of government.
-- I'm sure that the Democrats will be more than happy to take you up on an offer of surrender. --
I'm not the one who is reaching across the aisle.