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The New Sino-Russian Alliance: We now have bigger problems than Ukraine than we realize
Pajamas Media ^ | 05/22/2014 | Spengler

Posted on 05/22/2014 7:44:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

China and Russia evidently have concluded a 30-year gas deal which shifts the balance of Russian hydrocarbon exports eastwards, but that’s not the thing to focus on. Pravda reports:

The central themes of the talks between the two leaders will be two projects in the field of aviation – the creation of a joint wide-body long-haul aircraft and the production of Mi-26 heavy helicopter in China, the Kommersant reports.

Russia, entering into such cooperation with China, indicates that it is ready to open access to Russian aircraft technologies, despite the fact that China previously resorted to building unlicensed copies of well-known Russian aircraft.

Energy is important, but military and aerospace technology may be even more important. As the Russian newspaper observes, Russia had restricted exports of its best equipment to China because of intellectual property violations. Two weeks ago Putin approved sale of Russia’s new S400 air defense system to China; this reportedly will give China air cover over the whole of Taiwan, among other things.

Russia always has had first-rate designers, but its production capacities never matched the ideas. Merge Russian designs with Chinese engineering, and the likelihood that the Sino-Russian combination might challenge US technological superiority is high. It’s not surprising that Russia responded to US sanctions by cutting off exports of the rocket engines on which the US depends to launch spy satellites. Bloomberg reports that it will take the US six years to build replacement capacity.

Meanwhile, reports the South China Morning Post,

China and Russia started a week-long naval exercise in the politically sensitive East China Sea yesterday.

Chinese and Russian units taking part in the Joint Sea-2014 drill will be combined rather than operating separately during the exercise, the first time the Chinese navy has worked so closely with a foreign maritime force, according to Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie. “The mixed confrontation and drill means the exercises will operate more like a real battle,” said Li. “It shows the two countries’ strategic partnership has entered a high level of cooperation and coordination, even though both Beijing and Moscow insist they are not military allies.”

I may have lost most of my remaining Republican friends for ridiculing the sanctions and saber-rattling at Russia over Ukraine. We spoke loudly and carried a small stick. What do you propose to do now, big talkers?

We have much, much bigger problems than Ukraine. Here’s what I think we should do after we finish wiping the egg off our face.

TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Russia
KEYWORDS: china; chinarussia; coldwar2; energy; gasputin; natgas; russia; russiachina; spengler; ukraine; ukrainecrisis

1 posted on 05/22/2014 7:44:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
Our worst nightmare has always been that the chinks and ruskies unite. Only saving grace with that happening is that they are both snakes and will eat each other first chance they get.
We still have the “off the books craft”. That's where the real future is. Choppers and the like are ancient technology built as busy work at this point.
2 posted on 05/22/2014 7:51:48 AM PDT by rodguy911 (FreeRepublic:Land of the Free because of the Brave--Sarah Palin our secret weapon)
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To: SeekAndFind

This deal is possible because they have no Ed Begly jrs.

3 posted on 05/22/2014 8:02:25 AM PDT by Vince Ferrer
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To: rodguy911
What does off the books craft mean?
4 posted on 05/22/2014 8:02:56 AM PDT by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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To: SeekAndFind
In one of his columns when the Ukraine issue was just taking off, Spengler framed Ukraine as a demographic issue.

Young, educated, and urban versus old, uneducated, and rural.

5 posted on 05/22/2014 8:19:03 AM PDT by Ben Ficklin
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To: SeekAndFind

The Sino-Russian mutual admiration society works right up to the point that Vietnam takes one of the six Russian subs it has bought and torpedoes China’s brand new deep water oil platform parked in Vietnamese waters.

Certain things are geopolitical in nature. Russo-Chinese far eastern cooperation lasts as long as they have a common strategic interest in the form of a mutual opponent they are both seeking to exclude. Otherwise, Russo-Chinese cooperation has the shelf life of bananas.

6 posted on 05/22/2014 8:24:26 AM PDT by ameribbean expat
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To: ameribbean expat

....”Certain things are geopolitical in nature. Russo-Chinese far eastern cooperation lasts as long as they have a common strategic interest in the form of a mutual opponent they are both seeking to exclude”.....

I agree, however oil/gas pipelines do hard-wire countries together as nothing else. Further they ‘delay’ otherwise quick decisions by leaders when faced with a crisis, as we have seen Europe and Germany do regarding the events in Ukraine. Doing so gave Russia the edge because of this hesitation and reluctance to take a united stand.

Also there is more to this China/Russia oil deal in that China has been calling for a new standard of currency instead of the US Dollar. From my understanding this deal with China (in the billions over a 30 year period) will be via the Rubles/Rupees or Chinese yuan. Because it certainly won’t be in dollars..... so China got more than an oil deal.

7 posted on 05/22/2014 9:11:03 AM PDT by caww
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To: SeekAndFind
An alliance between China and Russia is an adverse development but is fundamentally limited because two sick men cannot perform together as if they were one healthy man. Both countries suffer from demographic imbalances and have profound defects in their national systems, which feature a ruling class cemented into place, routine and massive corruption, and arbitrary rule.

Russia is hobbled by the so-called "natural resource trap," with export earnings from natural resources devoted not to the development of the country but to making the ruling elite wealthy and keeping them in power. As for China, her economic model of cheap labor and export led industrialization is reaching its limits, with demographics, competition, and the "middle income trap" now beginning to slow growth.

Contrary to Goldman's premise, unlike during the Cold War, the Russian educational system is no longer a well-funded national priority. Thus Russia's scientific and technical talent pool is much diminished and many of their best minds prefer to emigrate to countries that offer higher pay scales and more freedom. Most of Russia's best military technology remains based on Cold War era designs.

Although China's military is acquiring better weapons and is growing, it lacks recent combat experience, is weakened by corruption, and continues to rely on masses of poor quality recruits. When rigorous, military drills and exercises tends to expose a profound lack of readiness.

Finally, an alignment between Russia and China will spur counter efforts by other countries in the region. Viet Nam, for example, which has long looked to Russia as an ally, will tend to devalue that relationship. India, which sees China as an adversary will similarly question her reliance on Russia as a political ally and arms supplier. The new Modi government may well reorient Indian foreign and military policy to favor the US and the West.

8 posted on 05/22/2014 9:45:33 AM PDT by Rockingham
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To: SeekAndFind
When zer0 took office our relationships with these former Cold War enemies were not bad. Look at what he has accomplished here.
He set out to reset Americas image around the world and now has Russia and China forming an alliance that has no reason to exist other than to defeat the US of A
While pulling this off at the same time he's canceled weapon systems, cut the nuts off our military and stepped all over our veterans.
Our currency is on the edge of falling apart , and I don't see a strong Republican (yet) who is capable of fixing any of this.
We are in serious trouble
9 posted on 05/22/2014 9:46:42 AM PDT by reefdiver (Be the Best you can be Whatever you Dream to be)
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To: SeekAndFind
this reportedly will give China air cover over the whole of Taiwan, among other things.

Hey, wait a minute ...

10 posted on 05/22/2014 10:16:34 AM PDT by NonValueAdded (Operating out of weakness? Imagine if he was working from a position of strength!)
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