Skip to comments.Is the Midterm Tsunami on Its Way? Undecided voters are sympathetic to the GOP
Posted on 05/27/2014 6:45:52 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
For months pundits have speculated about the potential for a six-year backlash against the incumbent president in this falls midterms, similar to 2006 and 1986. Or will it be a wash like 1998 and flatten into a mere ripple?
In 1994, we saw the Republican majority coming in a confidential survey that we did in September of that year for RNC chairman Haley Barbour and House Republican leadership member Bill McCollum. We were able to predict that, if the Republicans didnt compromise on Hillarycare, it would be what we called a tsunami. Never before had we seen a Republican lead on the generic ballot for Congress let alone a seven-point lead. Never. But that was the Republican generic-ballot lead in our September 1994 national poll.
Prior to this month it looked like this November would be similar to 1998. So far this year, our 2014 National Monthly McLaughlinOnline Poll has remained relatively constant. Since January a majority of likely voters gave the president a net negative overall job rating. However, the Democrats were able to maintain a plurality lead in the generic ballot for Congress until this month.
From January through April. Democrats held a slight, one- or two-point edge. Each month, one in six voters were undecided. Most of these undecided voters disapproved of the job the president is doing, but they couldnt bring themselves to say theyd vote Republican for Congress. In fact, among those who disapproved of the job the president was doing, four in ten voters were actually saying theyd vote Democratic for Congress.
But this month, they appear to be breaking for Republicans. Even though the decisive plurality of voters in our national polls is Democratic, Republicans now lead on the generic ballot for Congress, 43 percent to 41 percent. Not a great lead and a long way from a trend, but the gravity of the presidents negative job rating, the parallel opposition to Obamacare, and the strong desire to put a check on the lame-duck president is beginning to create political momentum that could put Democrats under another tsunami.
Just look at the monthly changes from April to May:
* In April, the president had a net negative job approval, 47 percent to -52 (-5). In May it worsened by six points to 4455 (-11).
* In April, Obamacare had a net negative approval rating, 4551 (-6). In May, it worsened by seven points, to 4255 (-13). Obamacare remains the Democrats millstone, and the VA scandal has given Americans a real-life look into the reality of government health-care rationing.
* In April, 47 percent of voters preferred that their representative in Congress be a Republican who is a check on the president, versus 43 percent who preferred a Democrat who will help the president pass his agenda. In May, the Republican check and balance gained a net nine points, lifting it to a majority position, 5138.
* For the first time this year, our monthly generic ballot for Congress went Republican. In April it was 41 percent Republican to 43 percent Democratic 43. In May, its now 4341 in favor of the GOP.
Can it get worse for the Democrats a strong double-digit House gain for Republicans and a Republican Senate tsunami? A further analysis of the undecided vote says yes.
One in six voters, 16 percent, are still undecided for Congress, but those voters disapprove of the job the president is doing 30 percent to 67. They disapprove of Obamacare 2962. They want a Republican congressman to be a check on President Obama 42 percent to 17.
The Republicans could take six in ten of these undecided voters and have a national majority vote for Congress of about 52 percent.
We wish the election were next week. November 4 is a long way away, and time allows Republicans to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. But the political pull of that fixed date is about to hit the Democrats like a meteor destined for its target.
Maybe President Obama will change the elections course by placing a moratorium on Obamacare and starting over? Maybe hell approve the Keystone pipeline and approve more drilling offshore and on federal lands? Maybe hell compromise with Republicans to really secure the border and reduce illegal immigration by 90 percent? Maybe hell really put a freeze on Irans nuclear weapons? Or maybe the president will reinstate workfare for able-bodied adults to get welfare and food stamps?
There have to be a lot of Democratic pollsters and candidates seeing the same numbers and hoping for drastic policy changes from the White House.
Five months to go.
John McLaughlin and Jim McLaughlin are Republican strategists and partners in the national polling firm McLaughlin & Associates.
Sure would be nice to see the GOP take on the fascist publicly.
And Mitt Romney will sweep to a landslide victory in November 2012.
Predictions mean nothing.
Voter fraud, illegals, bussing from one state to another, poll intimidation, dead people votes...yeah. The GOP will wrap it up. ~sarc
Given everything we’ve seen so far, a GOP Congress could be just as depressing as the “Republican” Congress under Bush. They’ll keep Obamacare in place and pass amnesty. I bet the media and Dems may even push them into some “grand bargain” on entitlements that jacks up taxes.
True predictions mean nothing but if you look around the net you’ll find anecdotal evidence that 0 and Co ( which includes the democrat party ) are loosing their hold
Undecided voters aren’t exactly the best bellwether
hidden nugget: OMG, we actually STILL have undecided voters?
The best cure for socialism is to let people try it for a few years.
Not surprising... remember, America is rife with low-info voters, who have absolutely no clue of events in the world beyond the Kardashians.
If only Chris Christy had some way-cool tattoos. The 325# folks over to the Wal-Mart parking lot might just go for him. Platform: Eternal Extended Unemployment, Section 8, More Disability, Free Health Care, Obamaphones ... and with Christy, perhaps the enticing potential of free donuts ... for life!
Slogan: Krispy-Kreme Kristy, the Fulfilling Candidate!
One of the things that badly skewed the 1998 mid-term elections was the drawing up of articles and impending impeachment of Bill Clinton. It was actually a lame-duck Congress that voted on the charges, and the revulsion of the voters against what was perceived as “persecution” of a sitting President. As it was a largely party-line vote, the stigma fell upon the Republicans for “playing rough”, much more than upon the Democrats, seen as the underdogs.
The right way to have played that would have been for Clinton to resign when the impeachment process started, much as Nixon had nearly a quarter-century earlier. But Democrats have no conscience, either individually or as a party.
Of course, that would have made Al Gore President immediately, and maybe we dodged a bullet there. But then, it all turned out to be but a temporary reprieve.
‘Sure would be nice to see the GOP take on the fascist publicly.’
But I expect the Mainstream Republicans to continue to yield to the fascists privately.
‘ Undecided voters are sympathetic to the GOP’ and the Mainstream Republicans will have to do something to change that.
I thought the House voting to cut mail delivery service to some 15,000,000 families was a good start for the Republicans.
And, BTW... what happened with that stomach-banding procedure he had several months ago. What happened to all that weight loss that was to follow? If anything, it looks rather marginal. What that tells me is Krispy Kreme hasn’t engaged in the required lifestyle change necessary to make it a success... so what does that say about what kind of President he’d be (as if he or any GOPer had a chance anyway)?
He wouldn't ever have resigned. But the best action would've been to not ever have pressed the impeachment. This country's voters -- especially the women -- adored Clinton, and his dalliances with Lewinsky only made him more popular. The penalties American voters issue to Republicans for misdeeds like these do not apply to democrats.
No mystery there. Okra has been using that trick for years. BTW, it is absolutely forbidden, verboten, to photograph Hillary Clinton from behind. Blots out the Sun for miles around.
*Krispy adores big, juicy submarine sandwiches. How about a deal with Subway, like that guy who dropped 200 just eating their products for a year? BTW, where is President Taft's old bathtub,, anyway?
Bring back US jobs.
I would prefer that the Voters were “sympathetic” to Constitutional Freedom and Liberty.
RE: Bring back US jobs.
How about this — CREATE US jobs.
Bringing back a US job, creates a US job.
RE: Bringing back a US job, creates a US job.
Setting policies that give businesses and entrepreneurs the incentive to Create US jobs HERE is more realistic and do-able.
All I know is that China now makes more than America makes.
China’s population is nearly 5 times, what America’s is.
EVERYTHING in America, is made in China anymore. I know that’s not literally true, but it’s true enough.
Enough with policies and other stuff. We need jobs.
RE: All I know is that China now makes more than America makes.
That is questionable. China makes things CHEAPER than America makes only for products that American businesses do not find profitable to make here.
Other than that, we make a lot of things that China does not make.
RE: EVERYTHING in America, is made in China anymore
Really? We make our own cars, motorcycles, software, medical devices, planes, automated equipment, and a whole host of others.
RE: Enough with policies and other stuff. We need jobs.
That’s why I said, we need jobs that could have been created right here but aren’t.
THAT is what you should be concerned about first and foremost. Jobs that need to come back to the USA will follow suit IF the policies set that incentivices businesses to create jobs here are made.
They just hate it when the polls start to move in the right direction. It makes them all start to look pretty stupid doesn't it?
They'll do all they can to reverse the progress, of course, just to make sure that a tsunami doesn't happen, and just so they can all sit back and say "see I told you so."
It's all a matter of getting conservatives to the polls to vote and candidates to vote for. We don't need too look far to see who in our midst does the Democrats' work for them.
**One in six voters, 16 percent, are still undecided for Congress, but those voters disapprove of the job the president is doing 30 percent to 67. They disapprove of Obamacare 2962. They want a Republican congressman to be a check on President Obama 42 percent to 17. **
A good reason to walk your block, knock on doors and get people registered to vote.
Classic micro vas macro.
The truth is that he only people who really fear a GOP tsunami in November are those Democrats who think they’ll lose their seats. And those Dems’ supporters. Basically it’s a micro-driven fear.
On the Macro level Dems know that the demographic trends are in their favor both mid and long term and that they’ll eventually take back both houses and hold them.
“Is the Midterm Tsunami on Its Way? Undecided voters are sympathetic to the GOP”
With turds like Karl Rove pulling the rug out from conservative pubbies, the GOP will blow it. ......and if they do succeed you can they’ll roll over for the RAT minority.
Are there enough Undecideds out there to make-up for the Conservatives the GOP-e has alienated since 2010?
An indictment of the GOP-E.
A good reason to walk your block, knock on doors and get people registered to vote.
The Dems cream us when it comes to that. They are motivated and radical. The get people registered and then get them to the polls. Pubbies prefer to stay inside on the internet browsing political websites and bitching.