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US Economy Poised to Accelerate? Bond Market in Disbelief
Townhall.com ^ | May 28, 2014 | Mike Shedlock

Posted on 05/28/2014 6:46:27 PM PDT by Kaslin

The US treasury market is not in sync with the widely held belief the economy is growing stronger. A single chart clearly shows what I mean.

Yield Curve as of 2014-05-26



click on chart for sharper image

The above chart shows end-of-month closing values except for the current month which is up-to-date.

Legend


If the US economy was really strengthening, the long end of the yield curve ought to be rising strongly.

So why isn't it?

My take is the economy is poised to decelerate, not take off as most seem to think.



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 05/28/2014 6:46:27 PM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin
It will accelerate. Just in time for the elections. By 2016 it will be reported(as a lie) that the economy is growing rapidly and that unemployment is below 5%.

And that will be the reason to vote for ANOTHER MARXIST named Hillary Rotten Xlinton.

2 posted on 05/28/2014 6:49:25 PM PDT by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal the 16th Amendment)
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To: Kaslin

How many times has Obama and the collectivist talking heads said that the economy was going to take off?


3 posted on 05/28/2014 6:49:57 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (Pubbies = national collectivists; Dems = international collectivists; We need a second party!)
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To: Kaslin

We’ve been hearing about this recovery for six years now. Other than here in Texas and the DC suburbs, t’ain’t so.


4 posted on 05/28/2014 6:50:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2Million USD for Cruz and/or Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: Jack Hydrazine

I think the economy did take off. Off course nobody can find it and it hasn’t been seen for years.


5 posted on 05/28/2014 6:53:17 PM PDT by eyedigress ((zOld storm chaser from the west)/ ?s)
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To: Kaslin
When you have the labor force shrinking by the day, 22% food inflation, the Federal Government declaring war on American citizens, gasoline remaining high and the Balloon Head in Chief touting the recovery, it's time to don camouflage and look for some serious cover.
6 posted on 05/28/2014 6:58:42 PM PDT by stevem
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To: eyedigress

heh

I think they are confusing taking off with r-u-n-n-o-f-t


7 posted on 05/28/2014 6:59:12 PM PDT by Lorianne (fedgov, taxporkmoney)
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To: Kaslin

My sense is it will decelerate and come 4th quarter customers will start putting off decisions and increasing the sales cycle.


8 posted on 05/28/2014 7:02:38 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously-you won't live through it anyway-Enjoy Yourself ala Louis Prima)
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To: eyedigress

Kind of like MH370?


9 posted on 05/28/2014 7:02:39 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (Pubbies = national collectivists; Dems = international collectivists; We need a second party!)
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To: Kaslin

Or crash?


10 posted on 05/28/2014 7:05:01 PM PDT by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: Kaslin
Summer of Recovery 6.0
11 posted on 05/28/2014 7:05:47 PM PDT by Moonman62 (The US has become a government with a country, rather than a country with a government.)
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To: Jack Hydrazine

“How many times has Obama and the collectivist talking heads said that the economy was going to take off?”

Oh, I absolutely believe that it will take off.


12 posted on 05/28/2014 7:13:21 PM PDT by The Antiyuppie ("When small men cast long shadows, then it is very late in the day.")
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To: Kaslin

US imports everything.

Our economy is shrinking.

We are not growing. Wake up people, we need to make things right here.


13 posted on 05/28/2014 7:15:18 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: Kaslin

Getting ready for another big party while living on borrowed money.

What could go wrong?


14 posted on 05/28/2014 7:18:10 PM PDT by Iron Munro (Black skin has morphed into Teflon.)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

Imports are a sign of economic strength. People take our dollars and give us actual physical goods in exchange.

Did you read those articles or watch those videos about comparative and absolute advantage I pinged you?

Do you understand that trade “deficits” are an invention of crony capitalists and don’t exist?


15 posted on 05/28/2014 7:20:24 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Kaslin
The US economy will take off... I believe it...

In 2017 after President Cruz and a tea party led Senate and House cut taxes, spending and the Department of Education, HHS and Energy get defunding.

16 posted on 05/28/2014 7:22:01 PM PDT by ExCTCitizen (I'm ExCTCitizen and I approve this reply. If it does offend Libs, I'm NOT sorry...)
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To: 1010RD

I’m not sure whether I have linked to your posts. I have read plenty of posts.

Can you please re-link them?

Thanks. I disagree with you however. I think it is a sign of economic strength to make stuff. Not to buy stuff.

So that will be interesting, with our opposite views of things, how the articles will seem to me. :D


17 posted on 05/28/2014 7:27:39 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: Kaslin
Honest to God, I have no idea how the economy hasn't imploded already. I have expected the wheels to come off for the last three years. The fundamentals ,are not good. High real unemployment, high debt, and anemic or nonexistent growth just for starters. It is all held up by massive government bond buying.

But, I may be wrong. I have been so far.

18 posted on 05/28/2014 7:34:22 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Jim from C-Town

You can’t have a bust without first having a boom. When it does come, it will be bad.


19 posted on 05/28/2014 7:37:09 PM PDT by BipolarBob
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To: BipolarBob

Another opp. to refinance if you haven’t done so already.


20 posted on 05/28/2014 7:51:09 PM PDT by DAC21
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To: eyedigress

Amusingly stated and oh, so true!


21 posted on 05/28/2014 7:54:52 PM PDT by floralamiss
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To: eyedigress

Perhaps if we find the economy we might find flight 370, and Elvis. Those are 2 other things that have been rumored to be found that have yet to turn up.

CC


22 posted on 05/28/2014 7:57:30 PM PDT by Celtic Conservative (tease not the dragon for thou art crunchy when roasted and taste good with ketchup)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
We’ve been hearing about this recovery for six years now.

It reminds me of Stalin's Soviet Union coming out with a new five year plan every year.

23 posted on 05/28/2014 8:00:15 PM PDT by seowulf (Cogito cogito, ergo cogito sum. Cogito.---Ambrose Bierce)
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To: Celtic Conservative

Elvis is in Michigan.


24 posted on 05/28/2014 8:00:22 PM PDT by eyedigress ((zOld storm chaser from the west)/?s)
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To: Kaslin

Mortgage rates dropped a lot today.


25 posted on 05/28/2014 8:01:29 PM PDT by HereInTheHeartland (Obama lied; our healthcare died.)
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To: eyedigress
Elvis is in Michigan

shush! you'll blow his cover and he'll have to find another Burger King to work at!

CC

26 posted on 05/28/2014 8:08:01 PM PDT by Celtic Conservative (tease not the dragon for thou art crunchy when roasted and taste good with ketchup)
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To: Kaslin

The Bond market is being manipulated. It is no reflection of reality. The US is effectively printing money to buy bonds and keep interest rates artificially low. No doubt this is causing a lot of inflation.

More in this video.

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?450050-James-Rickards-Financial-Collapse-and-Massive-Shortages-in-Gold-Coming

You have to go a ways in to get the bond stuff. This guy is not just another alarmist. He has credentials. Read the info given in the Thread.


27 posted on 05/28/2014 8:12:48 PM PDT by Revel
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Other than here in Texas and the DC suburbs, t’ain’t so.
..........
Well, there’s other places too. Louisiana is picking up some enormous investments; there are number of places with booming oil production like north dakota. and also big sections of western pennsylvania, northern west virginia and eastern ohio. for oil production New Mexico is doing well too, as are oklahoma, wyoming and colorado.

I’ll bet a lot of the other mid continent states are doing well too because food prices are generally pretty high. On the coasts the big stand out is san francisco down to san jose where business is just booming and real estate is hollywood expensive.

Other parts of the country are not doing so hot and that’s what’s keeping numbers low.

Bottom line: there’s just too many parts of the USA economy going really well for any kind of serious or sustained decline. However, current federal policies are so onerous to business that there won’t be any sort of big jump in business either.


28 posted on 05/28/2014 8:17:41 PM PDT by ckilmer
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To: Jim from C-Town

Honest to God, I have no idea how the economy hasn’t imploded already.
..............
US oil production is rising way too rapidly for anyone here or abroad to lose any kind of confidence at all in the USA. This rise in production is the real deal too. It changes things in a big way.


29 posted on 05/28/2014 8:21:47 PM PDT by ckilmer
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To: Kaslin

if its strengthening... please pin point the measures that are making the dollar stronger or the business environment more appealing? is manufacturing returning, while minimum is going up 50% and healthcare tripling?

sorry. the smart money can spot bullshit a mile away


30 posted on 05/28/2014 10:54:18 PM PDT by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: eyedigress
"I think the economy did take off. Off course nobody can find it and it hasn’t been seen for years."

It's in China.
31 posted on 05/29/2014 12:33:56 AM PDT by clearcarbon
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To: 1010RD
Imports are a sign of economic strength. People take our dollars and give us actual physical goods in exchange.

What makes our dollar so valuable? Is it based on the currencies of the countries who hold our debt? How about on the trillions that have been sunk into the markets/banks with the QEs? Money used to be backed by actual commodities - what is our dollar based on today that makes it so dang strong that it doesn't matter if we keep producing less hard goods?

32 posted on 05/29/2014 3:30:17 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: Kaslin
widely held belief the economy is growing stronger

What evidence caused that widely held belief?

Obama wants you to believe that he can centrally plan the nation's health care delivery system better than the market based health care delivery system but where is the evidence?

Obama wants you to believe that he can centrally plan the global climate but where is the evidence?

Surely such a bold administration would be capable of centrally planning the economy but where is the evidence?

If you want a real adventure answer this question:
what made the recession that ended in June 2009 the GREAT recession by 2013?

33 posted on 05/29/2014 6:13:15 AM PDT by MosesKnows (Love many, trust few, and always paddle your own canoe.)
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To: Kaslin

I sure hope the economy is stronger than a 1% contraction.


34 posted on 05/29/2014 7:57:56 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Do The Math)
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