Posted on 06/01/2014 2:36:53 PM PDT by Din Maker
There are two new polls of the Mississippi Senate primary - one released by a Republican pollster showing Thad Cochran with a slim 5 point lead (45%-40%), and one from a Democratic pollster leaked to TPM's Daniel Strauss showing McDaniel ahead 46% to 44%. Given margins of error and the inherent difficulties of polling a party primary in an off-year election, to me, these two soundings tell pretty much the same story. And it's an amazingly bad one for Thad Cochran on a couple levels.
On the first level, you don't want to be under 50% when you're getting primaried and your supporters pretty much by definition have a lesser enthusiasm and motivation level than your opponent's. But beyond that, I'm stunned that the Cochran campaign has managed to get so little mileage out of the whole "Constitutional Clayton" debacle.
McDaniel probably wasn't behind the decision to break into the nursing home where Cochran's invalid wife lives. It's almost unimaginable that anybody other than a few isolated doofuses could have thought this was a good idea. (She's reportedly in a persistent vegetative state, with very advanced dementia.) And he probably didn't know about it until after it happened - even if he may have learned about it before it became public knowledge. But the clown crew behind this caper are very much his people. Both literally and figuratively. And as I explained last week, the whole ridiculous idea of filming Cochran's wife was part of furthering a storyline that McDaniel's campaign was then aggressively pushing and leaking to various conservative media outlets.
Guilt by association is normally considered a bad method of evidentiary and moral reasoning. But it's usually more than good enough for campaign purposes. And this effort is so toxic, so politically radioactive, that just being in close proximity to it should be devastating.
In short, Cochran's team really should have been able to use this to bury McDaniel. And somehow they haven't. Amazingly, McDaniel seems to have suffered little if any damage from it. The internals of the GOP poll clearly show that the reaction to the incident has been negative and that, when asked, people say it's made them less likely to support McDaniel. But it just doesn't seem to show through in the topline numbers.
Maybe Cochran's time is just up. Perhaps the most telling number in the survey is "Do you support the goals and ideals of the Tea Party?" 55% say yes, 21% say no. That's a very good number for McDaniel to work with. But the mix of topline and internal numbers I referenced above suggests a major failure on Cochran's campaign's part. With a focused message about what the break-in represents and a mountain of campaign money dumped into the race, Cochran should have been able to bury McDaniel and I suspect they could have. But there's now only three days left and it hasn't happened.
If he hasn't already, McDaniel should come out and say these guys should be hung by their testicles from the nearest barn door.
Can someone win with a plurality or does someone have to get 50% to avoid a run-off?
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It’s a majority or 50% plus is my reading. The 3rd candidate, Thomas L Cary’
in one poll I saw had 3% or under and something like 12% were undecided. So in
effect the undecideds will make the outcome decision.
Here are some recent polls data and I’m sure there is other polls out there.
DEMOCRATS in Mississippi?......
I thought the KKK was dead.. there..
MAybe not?..
If you are a McDaniel supporter there is no way he could have been involved, but there is also no doubt that anything Thad is accused of is dead certain to be true.
Folks, you’re failing the logic portion of the test. We’ll all know on Tuesday.
Me too!
God bless and keep you, dearest!
12% were undecided. So in effect the undecideds will make the outcome decision.
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And political observers will tell you that undecideds break for the Challenger by 80%. Thad Cochran has been around 50 years. If people are still “undecided” on whether or not to keep him in the Senate, they will not vote for him on Tuesday. If 50 years time isn’t enough to convince you, two more days won’t do it.
Does anyone really believe that 12% of the GOP voters are still undecided? Also.....If one of the 3 candidates has to get 50% of the votes plus 1 to avoid a run-off, there is no way this will be decided Tuesday. We’re gonna have a run-off.
We’ll all know on Tuesday.
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Maybe not. See Post #28.
I’d like to see a sample ballot to know who is in place #1 on the ballot, #2 on the ballot and #3 on the ballot.
Whomever is #1 on the ballot usually picks up a few “lazy” votes.
Again, logic comes into this situation. The challenger is looking forward to a long career in Washington, perhaps as long as Cochran. Although his campaign ads criticize Cochran for voting for his own pay raises, does anyone who knows how this system works expect McDaniel to refuse pay raises?
If I have to vote for McDaniel to prevent a democrat from winning the seat, I will, but not in this primary. I’ve looked both men in the eye, more than once, and I’m not convinced that all that glitters is gold. Well, out of state Gold is another matter.
I predict that if Thad wins Tuesday and wins in November, he will serve about 6 months and then step down AFTER he has made a deal with the Republican Governor of Mississippi to appoint Haley Barbour to that Senate seat to finish out his Term. Then, you’ll have ol’ “Twangy-tongue Barbour” for another 20 years unless the cholesterol gets him first and he has a massive heart attack from too many hot dogs and milk shakes. I’m telling you, Thad is not running to serve 6 more years. This is all planned out for Haley Barbour to get that Senate seat.
Come ON, Democrats...Thad Cochran needs your cross-over votes in this open primary to slap away another Tea Party gnat...Thad needs you on Tuesday! (Please don’t make me put an /s tag on that post...please.)
Interesting about the ‘ranked choice ballots’. That approach may become used more over time.
Do you know the ballot placing for the Senate race in MS? I’ve looked but don’t fine a
sample ballot that is being used. That info should be available as ballots are
already printed and the candidate draw was sometime back.
Here is a little character tester. If McDaniel loses the primary and announces his support for Thad, which is likely, what will be the reaction of his backers? How about the posters on FR. Surely very few of them are Mississippians, so they will have no dog in this fight in such a case. What about the out of state big spenders who have funded his campaign. Interesting, isn’t it?
The 80% has been around for many years I believe. However there are other
studies that contridict that conclusion especially in Senate races.
In any case MS seems to possibly be on the verge of electing a new Senator.
Texas made some changes this time by letting some go that had been in office for years.
Every so often change seems to come around as people say enough.
Tuesday will be an interesting day in that there are several states with primaries.
Alabama - California - Iowa - Mississippi - Montana -
New Jersey - South Dakota
Maybe Thud's team wasn't sure at first that it might not have been one of HIS folks, trying to gin up sympathy.
“...Do you know the ballot placing for the Senate race in MS? I’ve looked but don’t fine a
sample ballot that is being used....”
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Here’s one:
http://www.desotocountyms.gov/DocumentCenter/View/620
At least in this county the candidates are listed by last name alphabetically.
Cochran has failed to crush McDaniel with the fake nursing home scandal.
McDaniel has taken a sight lead. 80% of undecided’s will break for him.
At least in this county the candidates are listed by last name alphabetically.
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Thanks. Maybe that is the way MS does it.
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