Posted on 06/04/2014 5:19:56 PM PDT by nickcarraway
After a second-place finish, his advisers huddle to find a strategy that doesn't damage Republicans' chances of winning the seat and taking the Senate.
Establishment Republicans are in a tough spot in Mississippi.
They want Thad Cochran to win the coming runoff, and could spend tons of cash to attack tea-party challenger Chris McDaniel. But they know the sitting senator is more likely to lose, and going after his opponent will only damage the party's ability to beat the Democratic candidate and take over the Senate.
It's an excruciating decision for all of Cochran's supporters, from the National Republican Senatorial Committee to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. And even though they're reiterating their support, it already looks like they are ready to scale back, and that means less money and toned-down attacks.
"The Club for Growth and Senate Conservatives Fund will bankrupt themselves just to make their point. The NRSC, the chamber don't have that luxury—they're looking at a Republican majority," one pro-Cochran strategist said.
According to several Republican sources, leaders of pro-Cochran outside groups were meeting Wednesday to discuss strategy going forward after McDaniel narrowly finished in first place in the primary with 49.6 percent of the vote. Sources raised the possibility that Cochran's supporters might shift their focus to other contests now.
American Crossroads, for one, announced Wednesday afternoon that it wouldn't get involved in the contentious runoff. "We have completed our work on Senate primaries this cycle ... this is not our fight," spokesman Paul Lindsay said. Crossroads didn't air ads in the primary, but it donated $120,000 to the pro-Cochran super PAC Mississippi Conservatives, according to Henry Barbour, the nephew of former Gov. Haley Barbour, who runs the group.
Cochran faces disadvantages in the runoff that range from his lethargic campaign effort to the likelihood of a smaller, more-conservative turnout in three weeks and the prohibition on Democratic crossover voters participating in the election.
He had no campaign operation when he announced his reelection bid and was dependent on outside assistance for the race. The Mississippi Conservatives super PAC spent $1.7 million on his behalf, while the NRSC helped staff his operations. He also was boosted by ads from the chamber, which reiterated its support for Cochran in a tweet after the primary's results came in.
Over the next three weeks, the senator might refocus his message on the out-of-state interest groups backing McDaniel, Henry Barbour suggested, rather than remain engaged in personal attacks against his challenger. The primary race took an ugly turn in its final weeks after one of McDaniel's supporters broke into a nursing home to take pictures of Cochran's ailing wife, Rose, who suffers from dementia.
Indeed, another Cochran ally involved with the senator's campaign strategy said that his team won't be bringing up that scandal during the runoff—a sign they realize it could badly damage McDaniel in the general election if he wins the nomination.
"The point of aggressively going after [the nursing home scandal] was to get it national attention. Now there is national attention on that, we've achieved that objective. I think it would be a fools' errand to continue use that for no other reason," the Cochran ally said.
That's a far cry from the aggressive posture coming from the outside conservative groups backing McDaniel. The antitax Club for Growth, which spent $2.5 million boosting his challenge, called on Cochran to withdraw from the race while threatening to continue hammering away at his record if he doesn't.
"He should do the honorable thing and decline to contest the runoff. Should he choose to persist, the Club for Growth PAC and conservatives throughout Mississippi will vigorously pursue this race to its conclusion, and we will look forward to the election of Senator Chris McDaniel," Club for Growth President Chris Chocola said in a statement.
If Cochran loses, he would be the first senator to lose to a primary challenger this year, and would give tea-party activists a much-needed victory after earlier setbacks against targeted incumbents. But Democrats hope that with McDaniel as the Republican nominee, former Democratic Rep. Travis Childers could make the race competitive. Childers, a Blue Dog Democrat, held a solidly Republican House seat from 2008 to 2010, proving his ability to win over conservative voters despite his Democratic affiliation.
"If you are concerned about winning this race, there is no question Thad Cochran will win. There are questions over whether Chris McDaniel can," argued Cochran strategist Stuart Stevens.
If they voted in yesterday's Republican primary, then yes. But I doubt the Dem crossovers will show a second time for Cochran in the same numbers as the Tea Party will turn out for McDaniel.
I'm surprised how many freepers seemed disappointed by the numbers on Tuesday and expected McDaniel to win outright.
It's extremely difficult to pass a sitting Senator in your party during a primary, and McDaniel pulled it off. Even if Cochran had narrowly beaten McDaniel by a few hundred votes (which he didn't!), Cochran getting under 50% was still huge news and the momentum is now on McDaniel's side, which Cochran supporters seem to be conceding and realizing the odds are that Cochran will lose the runoff no matter what they do.
McDaniel is already ahead, and with the third Republican being eliminated, I expect the vast majority of that guy's votes will go to McDaniel since the people voting for the third guy weren't happy with the incumbent Senator. I really can't see any way Cochran wins the runoff unless ol' Miss has some kind of fully open primary system and there's no RAT primary and the MS RATS have a good reason to want Cochran back in Washington.
Funny thing about Cochran, he was a Republican in Miss long before it was "popular" to be one. But he has NEVER been a conservative. Thad, you may have set the stage, but now its time for new players to run the show.
Not true. If you are registered, you may vote in a runoff, but you may not crossover. This means that if you voted in the Democrat primary you may not vote in the Republican runoff. If you did not vote in either primary, you may vote in the runoff.
You know if Thad was up just slightly would be coming from all establishment corners for Chris to get out.
Still, I think McDaniel should tread carefully. The nursing home crap ads are venomous. He needs to counter with tact and point out how little Cochran himself seems to care about getting elected.
Do the right thing Thad.
Remember Godfather II? Someone should have Robert Duvall pay him a visit and help him fill up the Bathtub.
Be a gentleman, Thad. Give it up graciously.
According to the Cochran aide in the article, they’re not going to keep beating the nursing home stuff in the run-off. Still, I agree that you can’t trust the Cochran campaign and McDaniel needs to remain focused and hit back hard. And to be on the safe side, McDaniel needs to get the third guy who ran to endorse him in the run-off.
It’s also true that if Cochran had any dignity, he would decline the run-off election and throw his support to McDaniel, but we’re dealing with a guy who has been in Washington forever and can’t imagine not being in power.
I disagree with the Dems that they have an opening in the general election if McDaniel is the nominee. That might be true if this was a good year for the RATs like 2006, but all evidence shows that 2014 will be a big backlash against the Dems, and that makes it even worse for Democrats running in heavily GOP states like Mississippi. There are a lot of Dem voters in Miss but not enough to win a statewide race, and the independents aren’t going to vote RAT in 2014.
Rove pulls OUT! http://www.gotnewswire.com/news/rovebacked-american-crossroads-won%E2%80%99t-get-involved-in-cochran-runoff
I honestly don’t think Cochran would pass an aptitude test. He’s not ‘all there’. As one of Mark Levin’s callers stated, this is not Thad’s race. It is Haley Barbour’s race. He wants his friend Bryant to appoint a successor to Cochran (who would no doubt fail to serve out another full term). They don’t want elections, they want stooges.
Exactly!
This race isn’t about Cochran, it is about Boss Hogg.
I agree! Why isn't Thad Cochran home helping his ailing wife?
Doesn't he care about her? Doesn't he want to be with her in her remaining time on earth? Or is his career more important?
Oh, I get it, he's too busy serving his State and his constituents. Yeah, that must be it. Wow, such a noble, dedicated servant of the people.
What’s the bet Roger Wicker is stocking up on Depends. 2018 may be a feeding frenzy on this guy if McDaniel wins.
Cochran has been traveling around the world with his mistress
while his wife rots in a nursing home.
Will the run-off be open like the primary was?
*************
From the MS SOS release today...
If there is a Primary Runoff Election:
The 2014 Primary Runoff Election will be held on June 24, 2014 (Miss. Code Ann §23-15-305)
Polls are open from 7:00 am to 7:00 pm.
Citizens must have been registered for the June 3, 2014 Primary Election to be eligible
to vote in the June 24, 2014 Primary Runoff Election.
If an eligible voter did not participate in the June 3rd Primary Election, the voter may
vote in either the Democratic or Republican Primary Runoff.
The State of Mississippi does
not allow “crossover” voting. Meaning, if a voter cast a ballot in the Democratic Primary,
he/she must cast a ballot in the Democratic Primary Runoff. If a voter cast a ballot
in the Republican Primary, he/she must cast a ballot in the Republican Primary Runoff.
(Miss. Code Ann §23-15-575)
Uniformed and Overseas ballots have been transmitted in accordance with State and Federal law.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3163756/posts?
Wicker has been trying to play both sides.
I bet one thing is for sure(besides the depends).
Other great conservative candidates in MS will NOT be afraid to take
on Wicker. And that is a good thing.
And now we know why so many Republican Party primaries open. It's to allow crypto-liberals to infiltrate the Republican Party and shift it from being actively conservative to being nothing more than a lap dog for the Democrat Party. People who say America have only one ruling political party are correct! Just listen how GOPe "Republicans" squeal whenever a conservative runs and actually gets elected. Congress (Democrats & Republicans) has become a self-serving inbred cabal of corrupt evil people.
To Cochran’s disadvantage...the prohibition on Democratic crossover voters participating in the election.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________-
But, if they voted in the Primary yesterday, they can vote in the run-off; can’t they?
I predict that before this coming Tuesday, June 10th, Thad will drop out and there will be no run-off.
This was a stupid fight on the establishment’s behalf to begin with. Cochran wanted to retire. McDaniel would’ve easily won with a clear majority much like Ernst in Iowa had they just went along and stopped with the insanity. This is Mississippi. If anything goes wrong with this seat THEY are to blame. McDaniel isn’t too conservative for Mississippi and Democrats haven’t even come close since the 90s. Mississippi has by far the most self described conservatives bar none. I’ve worked in Jackson MS and it is conservative. Everytime you go through a drive through you receive a blessing. I’ve never heard so many “God bless yous” , “Have a blessed days” outside of church in all my life.
If the GOP establishment really wants to heal the rifts they had better stop because not only will they risk taking the Senate and widen the rift in the party but maybe that is their goal. Self id conservatives only make up 70+% of the party. They may end up finding themselves sitting in a big lonely rainbow colored tent if they don’t watch out. We don’t need them as much as they need us.
Here is a good take on it.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2014/06/04/do_democrats_have_a_ghost_of_a_chance_in_mississippi.html
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