Skip to comments.Tipping Point on Iran
Posted on 06/06/2014 7:58:29 AM PDT by Academiadotorg
Dr. Matthew Kroenig, associate professor and the international relations field chair at Georgetown University, spoke at a the Heritage Foundation on Irans nuclear proliferation efforts and his newest book, A Time to Attack: The Looming Iranian Nuclear Threat.
Although one may think that Kroenig is advocating for a military option, he said, I argue that we should try to solve this problem, the Iranian nuclear challenge, diplomatically, if possible. But, if diplomacy fails, Kroenig suggested that there will come a time to attack Iran. And, adding to the discussion, he asked the question, Are we prepared to live with a nuclear armed Iran?
If diplomacy does fail, as currently seems likely, he recommended that the U.S. should conduct a limited strike when the Iranian government speeds up its nuclear proliferation efforts and program. Kroenig is not alone on his belief because, in his own words he said, This argument is essentially, Americas stated position on this issue. Since the Obama administration adopted this very position. The argument is not controversial, its simply Americas approach.
Now that time has passed, his position is now the establishment viewpoint of how to deal with Iran, so much so that those encouraging deterrence and containment are ostracized as extremists. He cited Senator Rand Pauls recent remarks on Iran and noted that he had to backtrack from them. When others countered and asked whether Iran could follow the Japan model, or allow Iran to have an advanced nuclear capability without building nuclear weapons, Kroenig said it is impractical and is one of several non-starters.
Kroenig outlined two parts of evaluating policies toward Iran:
First, there are a number of interests, per which, military action is clearly preferable; and Many interests that seem to be pure toss-ups, its really hard to make a clear case that one is better than the other.
Another potential view of acquiescing to a nuclear Iran would make things much worse for the U.S., Israel and the Middle East. Now is not the time to shirk our responsibility, said Kroenig. He went on to say, Irans leaders are very clear about this and their desire to become a dominant state in the Middle East. The suggestion that Iran will peacefully use nuclear capabilities for energy, and not war, said Kroenig, is not consistent with what Irans leaders say about their countrys nuclear proliferation efforts. Kroenig argued, If they had nuclear weapons, they could deter a major U.S. attack and could act as a shield against potential U.S. military action.
Yet, Kroenig does not believe that Iran and its leaders are suicidal. He said, I dont think that Irans Supreme Leader will ever wake up and think today is a good day for a nuclear exchange. By obtaining a nuclear weapon, Kroenig said it could lead to Iran [getting] into crises with other states like a nuclear armed Israel or United States in the future. He added, I dont think Israels leaders are exaggerating that its an existential threat. And, there are legitimate fears that Irans nuclear weapons could reach American shores. There is little difference in opinion regarding a nuclear Iran between George W. Bush and Barack Obama, Kroenig suggested. Both said a nuclear armed Iran is unacceptable. Also, he pointed out that a nuclear arms race is deeply antithetical to Obamas legacy as president.
Yet, if the president is serious, but nobody else believes him, thats the worst possible situation for Obama. Kroenig remarked, I think the Iranians and the Israelis dont believe him and that could lead to serious consequences. For example, if Irans Supreme Leader thinks he is bluffing, Kroenig believed that Iran will go ahead with an aggressive nuclear proliferation program and foreign policy. Kroenig suggested three things to help deter Iran:
Clear red lines that would trigger immediate retaliation Aggressive outreach to allies A couple things Congress can do such as invokingsanctions to tighten the noose even more, an armed resolution for military action on Iran and force Irans hand
Israel lacks the bunker-busting bombs that the U.S. has, as well as the heavy aircraft to deliver these bombs to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities. If Israel were to strike at the underground nuclear facilities, said Kroenig, In order to make that effective, wed had to provide B-2 or B-52 bombers. But, he admitted, Because the B-2 has stealth technology, wed like to keep that secret. It is not the above-ground nuclear facilities that the U.S. and Israel are worried about, but the hardened and buried facilities. A key concession from Iran, during the current negotiations, would be to shut down the underground facilities if the West is going to allow them [Iran] to have enrichment of uranium.
Israels preferred strategy is for the United States to solve this because they will not accept a nuclear Iran. If the Israelis strike, Kroenig said, it would buy the U.S. between two to three years. If the U.S. struck Iranian facilities, it would buy about five to seven years before Iran could revive their program.
Mullah Obama will allow Iran to go nuclear.
Here is the thing. The global Marxists do not care. Only two countries are on Irans hit list and both countries stand in the way of a one world government.
In the end it will be a battle between Marxism and radical Islam for control of the planet.
Been saying it for a long time here. Iran will get the bomb. The Iranians have to be clever enough to take advantage of the Idiot-in Chief who will do nothing to stop them.
At this point, any damage that Israel or even the US could do would likely not work, solely for the reason that the “average Iranian on the street” wants nuclear weapons, and has grand illusions about what having nuclear weapons means.
So the only real solution begins with changing the mind of the average Iranian. The way to do this is by creating a nuclear accident in Iran. A bad accident, attributable to the Iranian nuclear program.
Tens or even hundreds of thousands of Iranians (out of a population of about 81 million) would have to die horrible deaths in full view of other Iranians. But if it was a success, it might save the lives of millions of Iranians.